{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Celta", "away_team": "Levante", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261108", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-3", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-1", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.096, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "2-1", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.096, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "1-2", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0664, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Celta", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2355, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1096 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.096 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0885 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0787 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0664 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0513, "0-1": 0.061, "0-2": 0.0376, "0-3": 0.0153, "0-4": 0.0047, "0-5": 0.0011, "1-0": 0.0885, "1-1": 0.1096, "1-2": 0.0664, "1-3": 0.027, "1-4": 0.0082, "1-5": 0.002, "2-0": 0.0787, "2-1": 0.096, "2-2": 0.0586, "2-3": 0.0238, "2-4": 0.0073, "2-5": 0.0018, "3-0": 0.0463, "3-1": 0.0565, "3-2": 0.0344, "3-3": 0.014, "3-4": 0.0043, "3-5": 0.001, "4-0": 0.0204, "4-1": 0.0249, "4-2": 0.0152, "4-3": 0.0062, "4-4": 0.0019, "5-0": 0.0072, "5-1": 0.0088, "5-2": 0.0054, "5-3": 0.0022, "5-4": 0.0007, "6-0": 0.0021, "6-1": 0.0026, "6-2": 0.0016, "6-3": 0.0006, "7-0": 0.0005, "7-1": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.5008, "draw": 0.2355, "away_win": 0.2637 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5732, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4268, "btts_yes": 0.5847, "btts_no": 0.4153, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2952, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1714 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.92, "MCR": 6.92, "ATR": 6.8, "GK": 6.94 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.77, "MCR": 6.82, "ATR": 6.81, "GK": 6.87 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Celta vs Levante. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Celta 4W-2D-4L vs Levante over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Hugo González, Ferrán Jutglà, Roger Brugué", "tactical_analysis": "3-4-3 creates structural superiority against 4-4-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition. Midfield is evenly contested — Miguel Román vs Enzo Bardeli will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.87, Away: 0.79. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.68, "home_lambda": 1.764, "away_lambda": 1.22, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 4, "away_wins": 4, "draws": 2, "home_multiplier": 1.0, "away_multiplier": 1.0 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1096, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.5008, "draw": 0.2355, "away_win": 0.2637 }, "favorite": "Celta", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5008, "fair_spread": 0.544, "fair_total": 2.984, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Celta", "estimate": 1.764, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Levante", "estimate": 1.22, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5732, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5847, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Celta", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2952, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Levante", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1714, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ferrán Jutglà (Celta)", "estimate": 0.4995, "probability": 0.3932, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Roger Brugué (Levante)", "estimate": 0.3098, "probability": 0.2664, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Miguel Román (Celta)", "estimate": 0.2073, "probability": 0.1872, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Jon Ander Olasagasti (Levante)", "estimate": 0.147, "probability": 0.1367, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.984, "expected_total_shots": 23, "expected_total_passes": 812, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.8, "possession_home_pct": 50.8, "possession_away_pct": 49.2, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Celta", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5008, "script": "Celta is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.54 goals and fair total 2.98.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Levante must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Celta lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Levante chance creation leans on Roger Brugué against Yoel Lago, Álvaro Núñez in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Celta: starters carry the main goal usage through Hugo González, Ferrán Jutglà; bench watchlist: Williot Swedberg, Jones El-Abdellaoui.", "Levante: starters carry the main goal usage through Roger Brugué; bench watchlist: Etta Eyong, Petar Ratkov, Hugo Sotelo.", "Assist usage should flow through Hugo González, Jeremy Toljan; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Celta tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.49 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Levante is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Celta.", "Levante wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Celta": { "formation": "3-4-3", "players": { "Ionuț Radu": { "player_id": 815202, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 188, "market_value": 9700000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0709, "rating": 6.9409, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 21, "total_long_balls": 12, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 41, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.6836, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 8.4067, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.838, "shots_faced": 11.6, "expected_saves": 2.84, "high_pressure_saves": 0.98, "opponent_faced": "Roger Brugué, Iván Romero", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421100.0, "match_date": "2026-10-31", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", 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"history_matches": 49, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 49, "data_confidence": 0.79, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0004, 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90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0783, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-07", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-03", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 8.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 8.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 5.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 18.3285, "accurateLongBalls": 3.9065, "possessionLostCtrl": 8.4033, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.1938, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.4445, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.6423 }, "per_target": [ { "target": 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0.0113 } ], "others": -0.036, "total": 6.9409, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.987111, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.036578 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.024168 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.01926 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": -0.014584 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.011308 } ], "others_margin": -0.036057 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 49, "role_matches": 49, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 3.0431, "goals_prevented": -0.0709, "rating": 6.9409, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 29.2561, "accurate_pass": 20.8787, "total_long_balls": 12.2466, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9081, "touches": 41.2309, "clearances": 1.0256, "ball_recovery": 10.8848, "high_claims": 0.8553, "punches": 0.6836, "aerial_won": 0.0359, "sweeper_actions": 0.6418, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6418, "saves_inside_box": 2.2995, "possession_lost": 8.4067, "duels_won": 0.5157, "duels_lost": 0.0001, "total_contest": 0.1149, "won_contest": 0.1149, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2769, "total_own_half_passes": 18.9689, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.3358, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.838, "shots_faced": 8.0, "expected_saves": 1.96, "high_pressure_saves": 0.67, "opponent_faced": "Roger Brugué, Iván Romero", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.76 (squad xG sum 0.9840, xG scale 1.7928, xA scale 1.7928, team xA 1.31 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0431, "goals_prevented": -0.0709, "rating": 6.9409, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 29.2561, "accurate_pass": 20.8787, "total_long_balls": 12.2466, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9081, "touches": 41.2309, "clearances": 1.0256, "ball_recovery": 10.8848, "high_claims": 0.8553, "punches": 0.6836, "aerial_won": 0.0359, "sweeper_actions": 0.6418, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6418, "saves_inside_box": 2.2995, "possession_lost": 8.4067, "duels_won": 0.5157, "duels_lost": 0.0001, "total_contest": 0.1149, "won_contest": 0.1149, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2769, "total_own_half_passes": 18.9689, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.3358, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.838, "shots_faced": 11.6, "expected_saves": 2.84, "high_pressure_saves": 0.98, "opponent_faced": "Roger Brugué, Iván Romero", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.764, "squad_xg_sum": 0.984, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7314, "team_expected_assists": 1.3112, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7433, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.7928, "xa_scale": 1.7928, "opponent_lambda": 1.22, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 8.0, "after": 11.6 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 1.96, "after": 2.84 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.67, "after": 0.98 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"aerialLost", "margin": 0.071759 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.069594 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.05473 } ], "others_margin": 0.081954 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3839045464992523, "model_output": 0.3839, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0834 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0491 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0258 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0155 }, { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": 0.0084 } ], "others": -0.0611, "total": 0.3839, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.083391 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.049108 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.025761 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.015477 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": 0.008445 } ], "others_margin": -0.061221 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.926856517791748, "model_output": 6.9269, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0467 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0456 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0218 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0181 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0118 } ], "others": 0.0277, "total": 6.9269, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.046702 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.045604 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.021834 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.018134 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.011816 } ], "others_margin": 0.027654 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 23, "role_matches": 21, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9990, quality 0.487)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1603, "tackles": 1.3229, "tackles_won": 0.8274, "clearances": 5.2421, "aerial_won": 1.7604, "total_shots": 0.3835, "rating": 6.9269, "minutes": 89.52, "total_pass": 60.3479, "accurate_pass": 55.7295, "duels_won": 3.9912, "total_long_balls": 4.3047, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6025, "total_own_half_passes": 41.0337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.6462, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3142, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.0833, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 74.3862, "possession_lost": 5.1806, "dispossessed": 0.0805, "duels_lost": 3.4435, "aerial_lost": 1.8246, "total_contest": 0.0403, "won_contest": 0.0403, "ball_recovery": 3.6124, "challenges_lost": 0.0901, "fouls": 1.4484, "fouls_drawn": 1.4375, "blocks": 0.7496, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0151, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 22.6467, "total_progression": 110.1777, "progressive_carries": 0.71, "key_pass": 0.08, "shots_off_target": 0.3835 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7000000, "quality_factor": 0.4866, "boost_factor": 0.999, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 23, "history_shrink": 0.1786, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0271)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1674, "tackles": 1.3229, "tackles_won": 0.8204, "clearances": 5.2421, "aerial_won": 1.7604, "total_shots": 0.3731, "rating": 6.9269, "minutes": 89.52, "total_pass": 60.3479, "accurate_pass": 55.7295, "duels_won": 3.9912, "total_long_balls": 4.3047, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6025, "total_own_half_passes": 41.0337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.6462, 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3.4435, "aerial_lost": 1.8246, "total_contest": 0.0403, "won_contest": 0.0403, "ball_recovery": 3.6124, "challenges_lost": 0.0901, "fouls": 1.4554, "fouls_drawn": 1.4294, "blocks": 0.7496, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0151, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 22.6467, "total_progression": 110.1777, "progressive_carries": 0.71, "key_pass": 0.08, "shots_off_target": 0.3835 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1674, "tackles": 1.3229, "tackles_won": 0.8204, "clearances": 5.2421, "aerial_won": 1.7604, "total_shots": 0.3835, "rating": 6.9269, "minutes": 89.52, "total_pass": 60.3479, "accurate_pass": 55.7295, "duels_won": 3.9912, "total_long_balls": 4.3047, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6025, "total_own_half_passes": 41.0337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.6462, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3142, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.0833, "crosses_total": 0.0077, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 74.3862, "possession_lost": 5.1806, "dispossessed": 0.0805, "duels_lost": 3.4435, "aerial_lost": 1.8246, "total_contest": 0.0403, "won_contest": 0.0403, "ball_recovery": 3.6124, "challenges_lost": 0.0901, "fouls": 1.4554, "fouls_drawn": 1.4294, "blocks": 0.7496, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0151, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 22.6467, "total_progression": 110.1777, "progressive_carries": 0.71, "key_pass": 0.08, "shots_off_target": 0.3835, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.651, "opponent_faced": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "pressing_zone": "LM vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LM vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "matchup_zone": "LM vs CB" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1674, "tackles": 1.3229, "tackles_won": 0.8204, "clearances": 5.2421, "aerial_won": 1.7604, "total_shots": 0.3835, "rating": 6.9269, "minutes": 89.52, "total_pass": 60.3479, "accurate_pass": 55.7295, "duels_won": 3.9912, "total_long_balls": 4.3047, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6025, "total_own_half_passes": 41.0337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.6462, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3142, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.0833, "crosses_total": 0.0077, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 74.3862, "possession_lost": 5.1806, "dispossessed": 0.0805, "duels_lost": 3.4435, "aerial_lost": 1.8246, "total_contest": 0.0403, "won_contest": 0.0403, "ball_recovery": 3.6124, "challenges_lost": 0.0901, "fouls": 1.4554, "fouls_drawn": 1.4294, "blocks": 0.7496, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0151, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 22.6467, "total_progression": 110.1777, "progressive_carries": 0.71, "key_pass": 0.08, "shots_off_target": 0.3835, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.651, "opponent_faced": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "pressing_zone": "LM vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LM vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.76 (squad xG sum 0.9840, xG scale 1.7928, xA scale 1.7928, team xA 1.31 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1674, "tackles": 1.3229, "tackles_won": 0.8204, "clearances": 5.2421, "aerial_won": 1.7604, "total_shots": 0.3835, "rating": 6.9269, "minutes": 89.52, "total_pass": 60.3479, "accurate_pass": 55.7295, "duels_won": 3.9912, "total_long_balls": 4.3047, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6025, "total_own_half_passes": 41.0337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.6462, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3142, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.0833, "crosses_total": 0.0077, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 74.3862, "possession_lost": 5.1806, "dispossessed": 0.0805, "duels_lost": 3.4435, "aerial_lost": 1.8246, "total_contest": 0.0403, "won_contest": 0.0403, "ball_recovery": 3.6124, "challenges_lost": 0.0901, "fouls": 1.4554, "fouls_drawn": 1.4294, "blocks": 0.7496, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0271, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 22.6467, "total_progression": 110.1777, "progressive_carries": 0.71, "key_pass": 0.08, "shots_off_target": 0.3835, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.651, "opponent_faced": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "pressing_zone": "LM vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LM vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8183 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.764, "squad_xg_sum": 0.984, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7314, "team_expected_assists": 1.3112, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7433, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.7928, "xa_scale": 1.7928, "opponent_lambda": 1.22, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0151, "after": 0.0271 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0111, "after": 0.0199 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 71.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1674, "tackles": 1.3229, "tackles_won": 0.8204, "clearances": 5.2421, "aerial_won": 1.7604, "total_shots": 0.3835, "rating": 6.9269, "minutes": 89.52, "total_pass": 60.3479, "accurate_pass": 55.7295, "duels_won": 3.9912, "total_long_balls": 4.3047, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6025, "total_own_half_passes": 41.0337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.6462, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3142, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.0833, "crosses_total": 0.0077, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 74.3862, "possession_lost": 5.1806, "dispossessed": 0.0805, "duels_lost": 3.4435, "aerial_lost": 1.8246, "total_contest": 0.0403, "won_contest": 0.0403, "ball_recovery": 3.6124, "challenges_lost": 0.0901, "fouls": 1.4554, "fouls_drawn": 1.4294, "blocks": 0.7496, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0271, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "shots_on_target": 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"fifa_overall": 71.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1674, "tackles": 1.3229, "tackles_won": 0.8204, "clearances": 5.2421, "aerial_won": 1.7604, "total_shots": 0.3835, "rating": 6.9269, "minutes": 89.52, "total_pass": 60.3479, "accurate_pass": 55.7295, "duels_won": 3.9912, "total_long_balls": 4.3047, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6025, "total_own_half_passes": 41.0337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.6462, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3142, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.0833, "crosses_total": 0.0077, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 74.3862, "possession_lost": 5.1806, "dispossessed": 0.0805, "duels_lost": 3.4435, "aerial_lost": 1.8246, "total_contest": 0.0403, "won_contest": 0.0403, "ball_recovery": 3.6124, "challenges_lost": 0.0901, "fouls": 1.4554, "fouls_drawn": 1.4294, "blocks": 0.7496, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, 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{ "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.374 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1345 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0715 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0384 } ], "others": -0.0407, "total": 1.014, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.318855 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.126663 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.065341 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.040855 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.037108 } ], "others_margin": -0.039381 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.40918198227882385, "model_output": 0.4092, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 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"importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0515 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0405 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0365 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.021 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0196 } ], "others": 0.0141, "total": 6.982, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.051501 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.040464 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.036464 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.020998 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.019583 } ], "others_margin": 0.014256 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 34, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0034, quality 0.606)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7684, "tackles": 0.9393, "tackles_won": 0.6497, "clearances": 3.4912, "aerial_won": 1.0175, "total_shots": 0.4106, "rating": 6.982, "minutes": 85.1, "total_pass": 62.8387, "accurate_pass": 56.7775, "duels_won": 2.7246, "total_long_balls": 5.3423, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6762, "total_own_half_passes": 36.9788, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.0859, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.8599, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.6916, "crosses_total": 0.005, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 72.8092, "possession_lost": 6.9301, "dispossessed": 0.1738, "duels_lost": 2.467, "aerial_lost": 1.137, "total_contest": 0.3403, "won_contest": 0.2518, "ball_recovery": 2.4997, "challenges_lost": 0.4879, "fouls": 0.5843, "fouls_drawn": 1.0938, "blocks": 0.5557, "goals": 0.1177, 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false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.09694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.085864 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.027003 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.023975 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.017266 } ], "others_margin": 0.007628 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 20, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0033, quality 0.573)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1929, "expected_assists": 0.1156, "assists": 0.1127, "assist_rate": 0.1127, "expected_goals": 0.0592, "goals": 0.0777, "goal_rate": 0.0777, "shots_on_target": 0.3311, "total_shots": 0.979, "rating": 7.1161, "minutes": 88.5, "total_pass": 57.4659, "accurate_pass": 50.373, "duels_won": 3.11, "total_long_balls": 4.6849, "accurate_long_balls": 3.228, "total_own_half_passes": 22.2008, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5075, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.2651, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.8656, "crosses_total": 1.6349, "crosses_accurate": 0.3632, "touches": 67.8363, "possession_lost": 9.7655, "dispossessed": 0.2213, "duels_lost": 2.2704, "aerial_won": 0.6671, "aerial_lost": 0.6692, "interceptions": 0.4731, "tackles_won": 0.9445, "tackles": 1.5968, "clearances": 1.2719, "total_contest": 0.5465, "won_contest": 0.3384, "challenges_lost": 0.6743, "fouls": 0.5091, "fouls_drawn": 0.5078, "blocks": 0.3639, "big_chances_created": 0.1047, "big_chances_missed": 0.0091, "xgot": 0.0406, "ball_carries": 15.5199, "total_progression": 54.5002, "progressive_carries": 1.1528, "shots_off_target": 0.6479 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14400000, "quality_factor": 0.5726, "boost_factor": 1.0033, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 26, "history_shrink": 0.1613, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0245)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1929, "expected_assists": 0.1156, "assists": 0.1168, "assist_rate": 0.1168, "expected_goals": 0.0592, "goals": 0.0758, "goal_rate": 0.0758, "shots_on_target": 0.323, "total_shots": 0.9551, "rating": 7.1161, "minutes": 88.5, "total_pass": 57.4659, "accurate_pass": 50.373, "duels_won": 3.11, "total_long_balls": 4.6849, "accurate_long_balls": 3.228, "total_own_half_passes": 22.2008, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5075, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.2651, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.8656, "crosses_total": 1.6842, "crosses_accurate": 0.3632, "touches": 67.8363, "possession_lost": 9.7655, "dispossessed": 0.2213, "duels_lost": 2.2704, "aerial_won": 0.6671, "aerial_lost": 0.6692, "interceptions": 0.4684, "tackles_won": 0.9214, "tackles": 1.5968, "clearances": 1.2719, "total_contest": 0.5465, "won_contest": 0.3384, "challenges_lost": 0.6743, "fouls": 0.5104, "fouls_drawn": 0.516, "blocks": 0.3639, "big_chances_created": 0.1047, "big_chances_missed": 0.0091, "xgot": 0.0406, "ball_carries": 15.5199, "total_progression": 54.5002, "progressive_carries": 1.1528, "shots_off_target": 0.6479 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0245, "history_matches": 26, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9833, "prior_reliability": 0.2333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Celta Vigo" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", 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"LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Daniel Requena", "opponent_faced": "Daniel Requena", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Daniel Requena", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "duel_win_rate": 0.457, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0539, "skill_edge": 0.0686, "height_edge": -0.032, "attacker_skill": 0.59, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Daniel Requena", "market_value": 1500000, "role": "CM", "price_index": 0.9, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.0624 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.6671, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9709, "after": 1.0232 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.6479, "after": 0.6828 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.323, "after": 0.3404 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1929, "expected_assists": 0.1156, "assist_rate": 0.1168, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0624, "goal_rate": 0.0799, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3404, "total_shots": 1.0232, "rating": 7.1161, "minutes": 88.5, "total_pass": 57.4659, "accurate_pass": 50.373, "duels_won": 3.11, "total_long_balls": 4.6849, "accurate_long_balls": 3.228, "total_own_half_passes": 22.2008, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5075, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.2651, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.8656, "crosses_total": 1.6842, "crosses_accurate": 0.3632, "touches": 67.8363, "possession_lost": 9.7655, "dispossessed": 0.2213, "duels_lost": 2.2704, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.6692, "interceptions": 0.4684, "tackles_won": 0.9214, "tackles": 1.5968, "clearances": 1.2719, "total_contest": 0.5465, "won_contest": 0.3384, "challenges_lost": 0.6743, "fouls": 0.5104, "fouls_drawn": 0.516, "blocks": 0.3639, "big_chances_created": 0.1047, "big_chances_missed": 0.0096, "xgot": 0.0428, "ball_carries": 15.5199, "total_progression": 54.5002, "progressive_carries": 1.1528, "shots_off_target": 0.6828, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0539, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.457, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Daniel Requena", "opponent_faced": "Daniel Requena", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.76 (squad xG sum 0.9840, xG scale 1.7928, xA scale 1.7928, team xA 1.31 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1929, "expected_assists": 0.2073, "assist_rate": 0.1168, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1119, "goal_rate": 0.0799, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3404, "total_shots": 1.0232, "rating": 7.1161, "minutes": 88.5, "total_pass": 57.4659, "accurate_pass": 50.373, "duels_won": 3.11, "total_long_balls": 4.6849, "accurate_long_balls": 3.228, "total_own_half_passes": 22.2008, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5075, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.2651, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.8656, "crosses_total": 1.6842, "crosses_accurate": 0.3632, "touches": 67.8363, "possession_lost": 9.7655, "dispossessed": 0.2213, "duels_lost": 2.2704, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.6692, "interceptions": 0.4684, "tackles_won": 0.9214, "tackles": 1.5968, "clearances": 1.2719, "total_contest": 0.5465, "won_contest": 0.3384, "challenges_lost": 0.6743, "fouls": 0.5104, "fouls_drawn": 0.516, "blocks": 0.3639, "big_chances_created": 0.1047, "big_chances_missed": 0.0096, "xgot": 0.0767, "ball_carries": 15.5199, "total_progression": 54.5002, "progressive_carries": 1.1528, "shots_off_target": 0.6828, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0539, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.457, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Daniel Requena", "opponent_faced": "Daniel Requena", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1557, "creation_factor": 1.0072 }, "params": { 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"global_player_rank": 3643, "fifa_rank": 2921.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1929, "expected_assists": 0.2073, "assist_rate": 0.1168, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1119, "goal_rate": 0.0799, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3404, "total_shots": 1.0232, "rating": 7.1161, "minutes": 88.5, "total_pass": 57.4659, "accurate_pass": 50.373, "duels_won": 3.11, "total_long_balls": 4.6849, "accurate_long_balls": 3.228, "total_own_half_passes": 22.2008, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5075, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.2651, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.8656, "crosses_total": 1.6842, "crosses_accurate": 0.3632, "touches": 67.8363, "possession_lost": 9.7655, "dispossessed": 0.2213, "duels_lost": 2.2704, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 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false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.037926 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.033569 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.015089 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.014261 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.00789 } ], "others_margin": -0.000945 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 23, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9990, quality 0.477)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2037, "expected_assists": 0.111, "assists": 0.1096, "assist_rate": 0.1096, "expected_goals": 0.0866, "goals": 0.0753, "goal_rate": 0.0753, "shots_on_target": 0.2636, "total_shots": 0.93, "rating": 6.8434, "minutes": 75.67, "total_pass": 26.4077, "accurate_pass": 20.825, "duels_won": 3.1169, "total_long_balls": 1.5729, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7248, "total_own_half_passes": 9.9333, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.2142, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4744, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6107, "crosses_total": 1.7312, "crosses_accurate": 0.2773, "touches": 44.9341, "possession_lost": 11.0289, "dispossessed": 0.8644, "duels_lost": 4.0794, "aerial_won": 0.6499, "aerial_lost": 0.9082, "interceptions": 0.9974, "tackles_won": 0.5268, "tackles": 0.6122, "clearances": 1.2488, "total_contest": 1.713, "won_contest": 1.0042, "challenges_lost": 0.5108, "fouls": 1.0922, "fouls_drawn": 0.8505, "blocks": 0.1397, "big_chances_created": 0.2617, "big_chances_missed": 0.03, "xgot": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 7.8427, "total_progression": 30.3647, "progressive_carries": 1.8241, "shots_off_target": 0.6663 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6200000, "quality_factor": 0.4769, "boost_factor": 0.999, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2037, "expected_assists": 0.111, "assists": 0.1096, "assist_rate": 0.1096, "expected_goals": 0.0866, "goals": 0.0753, "goal_rate": 0.0753, "shots_on_target": 0.2636, "total_shots": 0.93, "rating": 6.8434, "minutes": 75.67, "total_pass": 26.4077, "accurate_pass": 20.825, "duels_won": 3.1169, "total_long_balls": 1.5729, 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0.051 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.065, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0122 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0088 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0091 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0043 } ], "others": 0.0063, "total": 0.0925, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.733324, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.172277 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.107401 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.100878 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.049358 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.048798 } ], "others_margin": 0.070697 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.3379769325256348, "model_output": 1.338, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1835 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0885 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0919 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0744 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.054 } ], "others": 0.154, "total": 1.338, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.235239 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.096349 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.091109 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.06808 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.046703 } ], "others_margin": 0.122264 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.81697416305542, "model_output": 6.817, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0518 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0241 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0128 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "contribution": 0.0099 } ], "others": -0.0413, "total": 6.817, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.051797 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.02405 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.013615 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.012835 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": 0.009873 } ], "others_margin": -0.041303 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 22, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9997, quality 0.496)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1425, "goals": 0.1722, "goal_rate": 0.1722, "shots_on_target": 0.4919, "total_shots": 1.256, "expected_assists": 0.0925, "key_pass": 1.3376, "rating": 6.817, "minutes": 73.0, "total_pass": 26.1666, "accurate_pass": 22.3622, "duels_won": 1.7637, "total_long_balls": 1.0224, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6176, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3974, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.8121, "crosses_total": 1.2226, "crosses_accurate": 0.3946, "touches": 36.4896, "possession_lost": 8.1814, "dispossessed": 0.6235, "duels_lost": 3.4015, "aerial_lost": 0.7906, "total_contest": 1.5662, "won_contest": 0.4381, "ball_recovery": 2.0916, "challenges_lost": 0.2382, "fouls": 0.7086, "fouls_drawn": 0.8159, "assists": 0.2188, "assist_rate": 0.2188, "interceptions": 0.5105, "tackles_won": 0.4115, "tackles": 0.5026, "clearances": 0.299, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3286, "big_chances_missed": 0.2435, "xgot": 0.0653, "offsides": 0.0161, "ball_carries": 9.6204, "total_progression": 48.9098, "progressive_carries": 2.0483, "shots_off_target": 0.7641 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7800000, "quality_factor": 0.4963, "boost_factor": 0.9997, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0067)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1425, "goals": 0.171, "goal_rate": 0.171, "shots_on_target": 0.4886, "total_shots": 1.2476, "expected_assists": 0.0925, "key_pass": 1.3376, "rating": 6.817, "minutes": 73.0, "total_pass": 26.1666, "accurate_pass": 22.3622, "duels_won": 1.7637, "total_long_balls": 1.0224, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6176, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3974, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.8121, "crosses_total": 1.2395, "crosses_accurate": 0.3946, "touches": 36.4896, "possession_lost": 8.1814, "dispossessed": 0.6235, "duels_lost": 3.4015, "aerial_lost": 0.7906, "total_contest": 1.5662, "won_contest": 0.4381, "ball_recovery": 2.0916, "challenges_lost": 0.2382, "fouls": 0.7122, "fouls_drawn": 0.8146, "assists": 0.2173, "assist_rate": 0.2173, "interceptions": 0.5071, "tackles_won": 0.4087, "tackles": 0.5026, "clearances": 0.299, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3286, "big_chances_missed": 0.2435, "xgot": 0.0653, "offsides": 0.016, "ball_carries": 9.6204, "total_progression": 48.9098, "progressive_carries": 2.0483, "shots_off_target": 0.7641 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0067, "history_matches": 37, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8111, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Celta Vigo" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.2226, "after": 1.2395 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.256, "after": 1.2476 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"target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6291158199310303, "model_output": 0.6291, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1855 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0707 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0583 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0382 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0283 } ], "others": -0.0526, "total": 0.6291, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.237538 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.084094 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.075047 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0008, quality 0.531)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2795, "goals": 0.2743, "goal_rate": 0.2743, "shots_on_target": 0.6918, "total_shots": 1.8121, "expected_assists": 0.046, "key_pass": 0.6296, "rating": 6.7437, "minutes": 73.33, "total_pass": 15.2377, "accurate_pass": 10.9517, "duels_won": 3.9265, "total_long_balls": 1.0756, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4313, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8304, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5872, "crosses_total": 0.4216, "crosses_accurate": 0.1165, "touches": 28.9809, "possession_lost": 9.8227, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 4.9759, "aerial_lost": 1.5504, "total_contest": 1.9336, "won_contest": 0.8485, "ball_recovery": 1.8697, "challenges_lost": 0.3353, "fouls": 1.1652, "fouls_drawn": 1.5249, "assists": 0.0531, "assist_rate": 0.0531, "interceptions": 0.1843, "tackles_won": 0.1678, "tackles": 0.4402, "clearances": 0.5749, "blocks": 0.0621, "big_chances_created": 0.0784, "big_chances_missed": 0.085, "xgot": 0.3277, "offsides": 0.389, "ball_carries": 8.1768, "total_progression": 1.4588, "progressive_carries": 1.1045, "shots_off_target": 1.1203 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10700000, "quality_factor": 0.5306, "boost_factor": 1.0008, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0122)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2795, "goals": 0.2709, "goal_rate": 0.2709, "shots_on_target": 0.6833, "total_shots": 1.7938, "expected_assists": 0.046, "key_pass": 0.6296, "rating": 6.7437, "minutes": 73.33, "total_pass": 15.2377, "accurate_pass": 10.9517, "duels_won": 3.9265, "total_long_balls": 1.0756, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4313, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8304, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5872, "crosses_total": 0.4241, 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"wasFouled", "before": 1.5249, "after": 1.5331 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2795, "goals": 0.2709, "goal_rate": 0.2709, "shots_on_target": 0.6833, "total_shots": 1.8036, "expected_assists": 0.046, "key_pass": 0.6296, "rating": 6.7437, "minutes": 73.33, "total_pass": 15.2377, "accurate_pass": 10.9517, "duels_won": 3.9265, "total_long_balls": 1.0756, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4313, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8304, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5872, "crosses_total": 0.4241, "crosses_accurate": 0.1165, "touches": 28.9809, "possession_lost": 9.8227, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 4.9759, "aerial_lost": 1.5504, "total_contest": 1.9336, "won_contest": 0.8485, "ball_recovery": 1.8697, "challenges_lost": 0.3353, "fouls": 1.1624, "fouls_drawn": 1.5331, "assists": 0.0524, "assist_rate": 0.0524, "interceptions": 0.182, "tackles_won": 0.1657, "tackles": 0.4402, "clearances": 0.5749, "blocks": 0.0621, "big_chances_created": 0.0784, "big_chances_missed": 0.085, "xgot": 0.3277, "offsides": 0.3842, "ball_carries": 8.1768, "total_progression": 1.4588, "progressive_carries": 1.1045, "shots_off_target": 1.1203 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2787, "goals": 0.2701, "goal_rate": 0.2701, "shots_on_target": 0.6813, "total_shots": 1.7982, "expected_assists": 0.046, "key_pass": 0.6296, "rating": 6.7437, "minutes": 73.33, "total_pass": 15.2377, "accurate_pass": 10.9517, "duels_won": 3.9265, "total_long_balls": 1.0756, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4313, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8304, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5872, "crosses_total": 0.4241, "crosses_accurate": 0.1165, "touches": 28.9809, "possession_lost": 9.8227, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 4.9759, "aerial_lost": 1.5504, 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"Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "duel_win_rate": 0.448, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.997, "skill_edge": 0.0419, "height_edge": -0.044, "attacker_skill": 0.5306, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Aïssa Mandi", "market_value": 1100000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.2787 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.8036, "after": 1.7982 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2787, "goal_rate": 0.2701, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6813, "total_shots": 1.7982, "expected_assists": 0.046, "key_pass": 0.6296, "rating": 6.7437, "minutes": 73.33, "total_pass": 15.2377, "accurate_pass": 10.9517, "duels_won": 3.9265, "total_long_balls": 1.0756, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4313, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8304, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5872, "crosses_total": 0.4241, "crosses_accurate": 0.1165, "touches": 28.9809, "possession_lost": 9.8227, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 4.9759, "aerial_lost": 1.5504, "total_contest": 1.9336, "won_contest": 0.8485, "ball_recovery": 1.8697, "challenges_lost": 0.3353, "fouls": 1.1624, "fouls_drawn": 1.5331, "assist_rate": 0.0524, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.182, "tackles_won": 0.1657, "tackles": 0.4402, "clearances": 0.5749, "blocks": 0.0621, "big_chances_created": 0.0784, "big_chances_missed": 0.0847, "xgot": 0.3267, "offsides": 0.3842, "ball_carries": 8.1768, "total_progression": 1.4588, "progressive_carries": 1.1045, "shots_off_target": 1.1169, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.997, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.448, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Aïssa Mandi", "opponent_faced": "Aïssa Mandi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.76 (squad xG sum 0.9840, xG scale 1.7928, xA scale 1.7928, team xA 1.31 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4995, "goal_rate": 0.2701, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6813, "total_shots": 1.7982, "expected_assists": 0.0825, "key_pass": 0.6296, "rating": 6.7437, "minutes": 73.33, "total_pass": 15.2377, "accurate_pass": 10.9517, "duels_won": 3.9265, "total_long_balls": 1.0756, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4313, 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"1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Aïssa Mandi", "opponent_faced": "Aïssa Mandi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9738, "creation_factor": 1.0667 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.764, "squad_xg_sum": 0.984, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7314, "team_expected_assists": 1.3112, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7433, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.7928, "xa_scale": 1.7928, "opponent_lambda": 1.22, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2787, "after": 0.4995 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.046, "after": 0.0825 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4995, "goal_rate": 0.2701, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6813, "total_shots": 1.7982, "expected_assists": 0.0825, "key_pass": 0.6296, "rating": 6.7437, "minutes": 73.33, "total_pass": 15.2377, "accurate_pass": 10.9517, "duels_won": 3.9265, "total_long_balls": 1.0756, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4313, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8304, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5872, "crosses_total": 0.4241, "crosses_accurate": 0.1165, "touches": 28.9809, "possession_lost": 9.8227, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 4.9759, "aerial_lost": 1.5504, "total_contest": 1.9336, "won_contest": 0.8485, "ball_recovery": 1.8697, "challenges_lost": 0.3353, "fouls": 1.1624, "fouls_drawn": 1.5331, "assist_rate": 0.0524, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.182, "tackles_won": 0.1657, "tackles": 0.4402, "clearances": 0.5749, "blocks": 0.0621, "big_chances_created": 0.0784, "big_chances_missed": 0.0847, 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official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4995, "goal_rate": 0.2701, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.6813, "total_shots": 1.7982, "expected_assists": 0.0825, "key_pass": 0.6296, "rating": 6.7437, "minutes": 73.33, "total_pass": 15.2377, "accurate_pass": 10.9517, "duels_won": 3.9265, "total_long_balls": 1.0756, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4313, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8304, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5872, "crosses_total": 0.4241, "crosses_accurate": 0.1165, "touches": 28.9809, "possession_lost": 9.8227, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 4.9759, "aerial_lost": 1.5504, "total_contest": 1.9336, "won_contest": 0.8485, "ball_recovery": 1.8697, "challenges_lost": 0.3353, "fouls": 1.1624, "fouls_drawn": 1.5331, "assist_rate": 0.0524, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 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"name": "rating", "margin": 0.026829 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.025949 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.019279 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.012594 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.011654 } ], "others_margin": 0.017136 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4313, "goals_prevented": 0.0073, "rating": 7.0235, "minutes": 4.43, "total_pass": 4.3132, "accurate_pass": 2.5338, "total_long_balls": 2.5235, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7635, "touches": 5.5538, "clearances": 0.2121, "ball_recovery": 0.9102, "high_claims": 0.1541, "punches": 0.0315, "aerial_won": 0.0194, "sweeper_actions": 0.1108, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1108, "saves_inside_box": 0.3246, "possession_lost": 1.8152, "duels_won": 0.1107, "duels_lost": 0.0268, "total_contest": 0.0268, "won_contest": 0.0268, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0645, "total_own_half_passes": 2.1102, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8714, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.11, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.43, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.996, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": 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"name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2058 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0539 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0163 } ], "others": -0.0218, "total": 0.1817, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.205808 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.053911 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.018301 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.016624 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016262 } ], "others_margin": -0.021889 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.725792407989502, "model_output": 6.7258, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0248 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0205 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0095 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0092 } ], "others": -0.029, "total": 6.7258, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.024814 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.020995 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.020504 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009523 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.009235 } ], "others_margin": -0.028923 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9868, quality 0.452)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4066, "tackles": 0.6017, "tackles_won": 0.3903, "clearances": 1.4776, "aerial_won": 0.7059, "total_shots": 0.1793, "rating": 6.7258, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 32.5644, "accurate_pass": 31.5776, "duels_won": 0.9868, "total_long_balls": 0.9868, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 23.6832, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.6832, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8812, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8944, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 40.4588, "possession_lost": 0.9868, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9736, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.9736, "challenges_lost": 0.9868, "fouls": 0.9868, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 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0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9783, "total_progression": 1.1699, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1358, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.218, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.63 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.63, "projection_minutes": 18.0, "minutes_scale": 0.7573, "appearance_probability": 0.218 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3078, "tackles": 0.4557, "tackles_won": 0.2903, "clearances": 1.119, "aerial_won": 0.5346, "total_shots": 0.1358, "rating": 6.7258, "minutes": 13.63, "total_pass": 24.6605, "accurate_pass": 23.9133, "duels_won": 0.7473, "total_long_balls": 0.7473, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9349, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9349, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7256, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6389, "possession_lost": 0.7473, 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"accurate_pass": 23.9133, "duels_won": 0.7473, "total_long_balls": 0.7473, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9349, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9349, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7256, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6389, "possession_lost": 0.7473, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4946, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4946, "challenges_lost": 0.9868, "fouls": 0.7393, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9783, "total_progression": 1.1699, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1358, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.218, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.63, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.996, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.218, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8071 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1404 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0444 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0294 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0237 } ], "others": -0.0544, "total": 0.6987, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.889712 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.222824 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.061211 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.03862 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.031009 } ], "others_margin": -0.07501 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.19004251062870026, "model_output": 0.19, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2417 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0111 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0091 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0079 } ], "others": -0.0594, "total": 0.19, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.241673 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.018229 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.011102 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.009102 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.007945 } ], "others_margin": -0.059452 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7815680503845215, "model_output": 6.7816, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": 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0.09881696105003357, "model_output": 0.0988, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1362 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0433 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0073 } ], "others": -0.0112, "total": 0.0988, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.559607 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.272321 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.09895 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.066964 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.06396 } ], "others_margin": -0.106599 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.24845999479293823, "model_output": 0.2485, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3935 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2119 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0395 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0191 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0187 } ], "others": -0.0537, "total": 0.2485, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.393473 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.104822 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016508 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.011314 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.010767 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.007967 } ], "others_margin": -0.000141 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 45, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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}, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.045079 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.043919 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010409 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.008839 } ], "others_margin": -0.022755 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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{ "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.051 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.065, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0044 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0037 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0029 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0025 } ], "others": -0.0028, "total": 0.0311, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.733324, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.31549 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.097527 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.08911 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.075331 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.071078 } ], "others_margin": -0.087594 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.39283573627471924, "model_output": 0.3928, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.234 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0287 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0114 } ], "others": -0.0224, "total": 0.3928, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.412852 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.064695 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.030836 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.029882 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.027953 } ], "others_margin": -0.055468 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.621649265289307, "model_output": 6.6216, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.059 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0133 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0093 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0075 } ], "others": -0.0496, "total": 6.6216, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.059021 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013286 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.01302 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.009332 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0039, quality 0.618)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0592, "goals": 0.0583, "goal_rate": 0.0583, "shots_on_target": 0.1997, "total_shots": 0.5702, "expected_assists": 0.0313, "key_pass": 0.3944, "rating": 6.6216, "minutes": 27.27, "total_pass": 7.674, "accurate_pass": 5.9042, "duels_won": 1.6635, "total_long_balls": 0.0867, "accurate_long_balls": 0.056, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9917, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6396, "crosses_total": 0.3608, "crosses_accurate": 0.006, "touches": 12.4561, "possession_lost": 3.2981, "dispossessed": 0.2313, "duels_lost": 2.1178, "aerial_lost": 0.376, "total_contest": 0.3729, "won_contest": 0.1043, "ball_recovery": 0.3421, "challenges_lost": 0.3531, "fouls": 0.889, "fouls_drawn": 0.5695, "assists": 0.1272, "assist_rate": 0.1272, "interceptions": 0.0587, "tackles_won": 0.2195, "tackles": 0.835, "clearances": 0.1644, "blocks": 0.0098, "big_chances_created": 0.2, "big_chances_missed": 0.1258, "xgot": 0.0746, "offsides": 0.161, "ball_carries": 3.8212, "total_progression": 18.6062, "progressive_carries": 0.883, "shots_off_target": 0.3705 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18700000, "quality_factor": 0.6181, "boost_factor": 1.0039, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0118)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0592, "goals": 0.0576, "goal_rate": 0.0576, "shots_on_target": 0.2003, "total_shots": 0.5679, "expected_assists": 0.0313, "key_pass": 0.3944, "rating": 6.6216, "minutes": 27.27, "total_pass": 7.674, "accurate_pass": 5.9042, "duels_won": 1.6635, "total_long_balls": 0.0867, "accurate_long_balls": 0.056, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9917, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6396, "crosses_total": 0.3595, 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"keyPass", "predicted": 0.32295385003089905, "model_output": 0.323, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2596 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0356 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0243 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0163 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.013 } ], "others": -0.0525, "total": 0.323, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.470502 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.086076 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.063345 }, { "name": 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"margin": -0.038105 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.014378 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.012049 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010785 } ], "others_margin": -0.028599 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9999, quality 0.503)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0686, "goals": 0.06, "goal_rate": 0.06, "shots_on_target": 0.2129, "total_shots": 0.5638, "expected_assists": 0.023, "key_pass": 0.3229, "rating": 6.6295, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 4.2801, "accurate_pass": 3.2745, "duels_won": 0.8029, "total_long_balls": 0.1336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1878, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4626, "crosses_total": 1.0788, "crosses_accurate": 0.2068, "touches": 10.5106, "possession_lost": 3.9777, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 1.8731, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.5417, "won_contest": 0.1469, "ball_recovery": 1.1911, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4167, "fouls_drawn": 0.1912, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1425, "tackles_won": 0.1897, 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"scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2596 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0356 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0243 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0163 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.013 } ], "others": -0.0525, "total": 0.323, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.470502 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.086076 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.063345 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.042979 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 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0.014378 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.012049 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010785 } ], "others_margin": -0.028599 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9999, quality 0.503)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0686, "goals": 0.06, "goal_rate": 0.06, "shots_on_target": 0.2129, "total_shots": 0.5638, "expected_assists": 0.023, "key_pass": 0.3229, "rating": 6.6295, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 4.2801, "accurate_pass": 3.2745, "duels_won": 0.8029, "total_long_balls": 0.1336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1878, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4626, "crosses_total": 1.0788, "crosses_accurate": 0.2068, "touches": 10.5106, "possession_lost": 3.9777, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 1.8731, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.5417, "won_contest": 0.1469, "ball_recovery": 1.1911, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4167, "fouls_drawn": 0.1912, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1425, "tackles_won": 0.1897, "tackles": 0.2121, "clearances": 0.3375, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1039, "xgot": 0.0429, "offsides": 0.108, "ball_carries": 3.9493, "total_progression": 26.6205, "progressive_carries": 1.2139, "shots_off_target": 0.3509 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8400000, "quality_factor": 0.5035, "boost_factor": 0.9999, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 25, "history_shrink": 0.1667, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0072)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0686, "goals": 0.0596, "goal_rate": 0.0596, "shots_on_target": 0.2132, "total_shots": 0.5633, "expected_assists": 0.023, "key_pass": 0.3229, "rating": 6.6295, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 4.2801, "accurate_pass": 3.2745, "duels_won": 0.8029, "total_long_balls": 0.1336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1878, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4626, "crosses_total": 1.0763, "crosses_accurate": 0.2068, "touches": 10.5106, "possession_lost": 3.9777, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 1.8731, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.5417, "won_contest": 0.1469, "ball_recovery": 1.1911, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4172, "fouls_drawn": 0.1916, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1415, "tackles_won": 0.1883, "tackles": 0.2121, "clearances": 0.3375, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1039, "xgot": 0.0429, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 3.9493, "total_progression": 26.6205, "progressive_carries": 1.2139, "shots_off_target": 0.3509 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0072, "history_matches": 25, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2427, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Celta Vigo" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.8 to 25.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.081, "goals": 0.0704, "goal_rate": 0.0704, "shots_on_target": 0.2519, "total_shots": 0.6664, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "key_pass": 0.3814, "rating": 6.6295, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0507, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.4145, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.8, "projection_minutes": 21.84, "minutes_scale": 1.1813, "appearance_probability": 0.532 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.081, "goals": 0.0704, "goal_rate": 0.0704, "shots_on_target": 0.2519, "total_shots": 0.6664, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "key_pass": 0.3814, "rating": 6.6295, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0507, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.4145, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.081, "goal_rate": 0.0704, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2519, "total_shots": 0.6664, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "key_pass": 0.3814, "rating": 6.6295, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0507, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.4145, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.996, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.76 (squad xG sum 0.9840, xG scale 1.7928, xA scale 1.7928, team xA 1.31 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0773, "goal_rate": 0.0704, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2519, "total_shots": 0.6664, "expected_assists": 0.0259, "key_pass": 0.3814, "rating": 6.6295, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9191, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.764, "squad_xg_sum": 0.984, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7314, "team_expected_assists": 1.3112, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7433, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.7928, "xa_scale": 1.7928, "opponent_lambda": 1.22, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.532 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0773, "goal_rate": 0.0704, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2519, "total_shots": 0.6664, "expected_assists": 0.0259, "key_pass": 0.3814, "rating": 6.6295, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0484, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.4145, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.996, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9191, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4507, "fifa_rank": 4264.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0773, "goal_rate": 0.0704, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2519, "total_shots": 0.6664, "expected_assists": 0.0259, "key_pass": 0.3814, "rating": 6.6295, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0484, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.4145, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.996, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0719, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9191, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0719, "goal_rate": 0.0704, "scorer_weight": 0.071, "squad_weight_total": 1.8097, "weight_share": 0.0393, "finishing_factor": 0.9191, "appearance_weight": 0.532, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ferrán Jutglà", "weight": 0.4864, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4864, "runner_up": "Hugo González", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4097 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Hugo González", "weight": 0.4097, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4097, "runner_up": "Hugo Álvarez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2872 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0773, "goal_rate": 0.0704, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2519, "total_shots": 0.6664, "expected_assists": 0.0259, "key_pass": 0.3814, "rating": 6.6295, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0253, "finishing_factor": 0.9191, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0253, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0207, "squad_weight_total": 1.4371, "weight_share": 0.0144, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.532, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Hugo González", "weight": 0.2244, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2244, "runner_up": "Miguel Román", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2088 } ] } } ] }, "Williot Swedberg": { "player_id": 1126779, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 185, "market_value": 18700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0642, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0278, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6216, "minutes": 30, 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normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0039, quality 0.618)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0592, "goals": 0.0583, "goal_rate": 0.0583, "shots_on_target": 0.1997, "total_shots": 0.5702, "expected_assists": 0.0313, "key_pass": 0.3944, "rating": 6.6216, "minutes": 27.27, "total_pass": 7.674, "accurate_pass": 5.9042, "duels_won": 1.6635, "total_long_balls": 0.0867, "accurate_long_balls": 0.056, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9917, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6396, "crosses_total": 0.3608, "crosses_accurate": 0.006, "touches": 12.4561, "possession_lost": 3.2981, "dispossessed": 0.2313, "duels_lost": 2.1178, "aerial_lost": 0.376, "total_contest": 0.3729, "won_contest": 0.1043, "ball_recovery": 0.3421, "challenges_lost": 0.3531, "fouls": 0.889, "fouls_drawn": 0.5695, "assists": 0.1272, "assist_rate": 0.1272, "interceptions": 0.0587, "tackles_won": 0.2195, "tackles": 0.835, "clearances": 0.1644, "blocks": 0.0098, "big_chances_created": 0.2, "big_chances_missed": 0.1258, "xgot": 0.0746, "offsides": 0.161, "ball_carries": 3.8212, "total_progression": 18.6062, "progressive_carries": 0.883, "shots_off_target": 0.3705 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18700000, "quality_factor": 0.6181, "boost_factor": 1.0039, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0118)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0592, "goals": 0.0576, "goal_rate": 0.0576, "shots_on_target": 0.2003, "total_shots": 0.5679, "expected_assists": 0.0313, "key_pass": 0.3944, "rating": 6.6216, "minutes": 27.27, "total_pass": 7.674, "accurate_pass": 5.9042, "duels_won": 1.6635, "total_long_balls": 0.0867, "accurate_long_balls": 0.056, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.9917, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6396, "crosses_total": 0.3595, "crosses_accurate": 0.006, "touches": 12.4561, "possession_lost": 3.2981, "dispossessed": 0.2313, "duels_lost": 2.1178, "aerial_lost": 0.376, "total_contest": 0.3729, "won_contest": 0.1043, "ball_recovery": 0.3421, "challenges_lost": 0.3531, "fouls": 0.8815, "fouls_drawn": 0.5792, "assists": 0.1257, "assist_rate": 0.1257, "interceptions": 0.0595, "tackles_won": 0.2199, "tackles": 0.835, "clearances": 0.1644, "blocks": 0.0098, "big_chances_created": 0.2, "big_chances_missed": 0.1258, "xgot": 0.0746, "offsides": 0.1591, "ball_carries": 3.8212, "total_progression": 18.6062, "progressive_carries": 0.883, "shots_off_target": 0.3705 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0118, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.303, "prior_reliability": 0.16, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Celta Vigo" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.5695, "after": 0.5792 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.889, "after": 0.8815 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.3 to 30.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.45)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.066, "goals": 0.0642, "goal_rate": 0.0642, "shots_on_target": 0.2233, "total_shots": 0.6363, "expected_assists": 0.0349, "key_pass": 0.4397, "rating": 6.6216, "minutes": 30.4, "total_pass": 8.5548, "accurate_pass": 6.5819, "duels_won": 1.8544, "total_long_balls": 0.0967, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0624, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6794, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1721, "crosses_total": 0.4008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0067, "touches": 13.8858, "possession_lost": 3.6766, "dispossessed": 0.2313, "duels_lost": 2.3609, "aerial_lost": 0.376, "total_contest": 0.4157, "won_contest": 0.1163, "ball_recovery": 0.3814, "challenges_lost": 0.3531, "fouls": 0.9827, "fouls_drawn": 0.6457, "assists": 0.1401, "assist_rate": 0.1401, "interceptions": 0.0663, "tackles_won": 0.2451, "tackles": 0.9308, "clearances": 0.1833, "blocks": 0.0109, "big_chances_created": 0.223, "big_chances_missed": 0.1402, "xgot": 0.0832, "offsides": 0.1591, "ball_carries": 4.2598, "total_progression": 20.7418, "progressive_carries": 0.9843, "shots_off_target": 0.413, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.445, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.4 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 30.4, "projection_minutes": 27.27, "minutes_scale": 1.1148, "appearance_probability": 0.445 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.066, "goals": 0.0642, "goal_rate": 0.0642, "shots_on_target": 0.2233, "total_shots": 0.6363, "expected_assists": 0.0349, "key_pass": 0.4397, "rating": 6.6216, "minutes": 30.4, "total_pass": 8.5548, "accurate_pass": 6.5819, "duels_won": 1.8544, "total_long_balls": 0.0967, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0624, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6794, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1721, "crosses_total": 0.4008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0067, "touches": 13.8858, "possession_lost": 3.6766, "dispossessed": 0.2313, "duels_lost": 2.3609, "aerial_lost": 0.376, "total_contest": 0.4157, "won_contest": 0.1163, "ball_recovery": 0.3814, "challenges_lost": 0.3531, "fouls": 0.9827, "fouls_drawn": 0.6457, "assists": 0.1401, "assist_rate": 0.1401, "interceptions": 0.0663, "tackles_won": 0.2451, "tackles": 0.9308, "clearances": 0.1833, "blocks": 0.0109, "big_chances_created": 0.223, "big_chances_missed": 0.1402, "xgot": 0.0832, "offsides": 0.1591, "ball_carries": 4.2598, "total_progression": 20.7418, "progressive_carries": 0.9843, "shots_off_target": 0.413, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.445, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.4 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.066, "goal_rate": 0.0642, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2233, "total_shots": 0.6363, "expected_assists": 0.0349, "key_pass": 0.4397, "rating": 6.6216, "minutes": 30.4, "total_pass": 8.5548, "accurate_pass": 6.5819, "duels_won": 1.8544, "total_long_balls": 0.0967, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0624, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6794, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1721, "crosses_total": 0.4008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0067, "touches": 13.8858, "possession_lost": 3.6766, "dispossessed": 0.2313, "duels_lost": 2.3609, "aerial_lost": 0.376, "total_contest": 0.4157, "won_contest": 0.1163, "ball_recovery": 0.3814, "challenges_lost": 0.3531, "fouls": 0.9827, "fouls_drawn": 0.6457, "assist_rate": 0.1401, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0663, "tackles_won": 0.2451, "tackles": 0.9308, "clearances": 0.1833, "blocks": 0.0109, "big_chances_created": 0.223, "big_chances_missed": 0.1402, "xgot": 0.0832, "offsides": 0.1591, "ball_carries": 4.2598, "total_progression": 20.7418, "progressive_carries": 0.9843, "shots_off_target": 0.413, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.445, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.996, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.76 (squad xG sum 0.9840, xG scale 1.7928, xA scale 1.7928, team xA 1.31 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0642, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2233, "total_shots": 0.6363, "expected_assists": 0.0278, "key_pass": 0.4397, "rating": 6.6216, "minutes": 30.4, "total_pass": 8.5548, "accurate_pass": 6.5819, "duels_won": 1.8544, "total_long_balls": 0.0967, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0624, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6794, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1721, "crosses_total": 0.4008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0067, "touches": 13.8858, "possession_lost": 3.6766, "dispossessed": 0.2313, "duels_lost": 2.3609, "aerial_lost": 0.376, "total_contest": 0.4157, "won_contest": 0.1163, "ball_recovery": 0.3814, "challenges_lost": 0.3531, "fouls": 0.9827, "fouls_drawn": 0.6457, "assist_rate": 0.1401, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0663, "tackles_won": 0.2451, "tackles": 0.9308, "clearances": 0.1833, "blocks": 0.0109, "big_chances_created": 0.223, "big_chances_missed": 0.1402, "xgot": 0.0664, "offsides": 0.1591, "ball_carries": 4.2598, "total_progression": 20.7418, "progressive_carries": 0.9843, "shots_off_target": 0.413, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.445, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.996, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9845, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.764, "squad_xg_sum": 0.984, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7314, "team_expected_assists": 1.3112, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7433, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.7928, "xa_scale": 1.7928, "opponent_lambda": 1.22, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.445 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.066, "after": 0.0527 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0349, "after": 0.0278 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0642, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2233, "total_shots": 0.6363, "expected_assists": 0.0278, "key_pass": 0.4397, "rating": 6.6216, "minutes": 30.4, "total_pass": 8.5548, "accurate_pass": 6.5819, "duels_won": 1.8544, "total_long_balls": 0.0967, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0624, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6794, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1721, "crosses_total": 0.4008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0067, "touches": 13.8858, "possession_lost": 3.6766, "dispossessed": 0.2313, "duels_lost": 2.3609, "aerial_lost": 0.376, "total_contest": 0.4157, "won_contest": 0.1163, "ball_recovery": 0.3814, "challenges_lost": 0.3531, "fouls": 0.9827, "fouls_drawn": 0.6457, "assist_rate": 0.1401, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0663, "tackles_won": 0.2451, "tackles": 0.9308, "clearances": 0.1833, "blocks": 0.0109, "big_chances_created": 0.223, "big_chances_missed": 0.1402, "xgot": 0.0664, "offsides": 0.1591, "ball_carries": 4.2598, "total_progression": 20.7418, "progressive_carries": 0.9843, "shots_off_target": 0.413, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.445, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.996, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9845, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3324, "fifa_rank": 1981.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0642, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2233, "total_shots": 0.6363, "expected_assists": 0.0278, "key_pass": 0.4397, "rating": 6.6216, "minutes": 30.4, "total_pass": 8.5548, "accurate_pass": 6.5819, "duels_won": 1.8544, "total_long_balls": 0.0967, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0624, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6794, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1721, "crosses_total": 0.4008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0067, "touches": 13.8858, "possession_lost": 3.6766, "dispossessed": 0.2313, "duels_lost": 2.3609, "aerial_lost": 0.376, "total_contest": 0.4157, "won_contest": 0.1163, "ball_recovery": 0.3814, "challenges_lost": 0.3531, "fouls": 0.9827, "fouls_drawn": 0.6457, "assist_rate": 0.1401, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0663, "tackles_won": 0.2451, "tackles": 0.9308, "clearances": 0.1833, "blocks": 0.0109, "big_chances_created": 0.223, "big_chances_missed": 0.1402, "xgot": 0.0664, "offsides": 0.1591, "ball_carries": 4.2598, "total_progression": 20.7418, "progressive_carries": 0.9843, "shots_off_target": 0.413, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.445, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.996, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0497, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9845, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0497, "goal_rate": 0.0642, "scorer_weight": 0.0519, "squad_weight_total": 1.8097, "weight_share": 0.0287, "finishing_factor": 0.9845, "appearance_weight": 0.445, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ferrán Jutglà", "weight": 0.4864, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4864, "runner_up": "Hugo González", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4097 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Hugo González", "weight": 0.4097, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4097, "runner_up": "Hugo Álvarez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2872 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0642, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2233, "total_shots": 0.6363, "expected_assists": 0.0278, "key_pass": 0.4397, "rating": 6.6216, "minutes": 30.4, "total_pass": 8.5548, "accurate_pass": 6.5819, "duels_won": 1.8544, "total_long_balls": 0.0967, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0624, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6794, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1721, "crosses_total": 0.4008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0067, "touches": 13.8858, "possession_lost": 3.6766, "dispossessed": 0.2313, "duels_lost": 2.3609, "aerial_lost": 0.376, "total_contest": 0.4157, "won_contest": 0.1163, "ball_recovery": 0.3814, "challenges_lost": 0.3531, "fouls": 0.9827, "fouls_drawn": 0.6457, "assist_rate": 0.1401, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0663, "tackles_won": 0.2451, "tackles": 0.9308, "clearances": 0.1833, "blocks": 0.0109, "big_chances_created": 0.223, "big_chances_missed": 0.1402, "xgot": 0.0664, "offsides": 0.1591, "ball_carries": 4.2598, "total_progression": 20.7418, "progressive_carries": 0.9843, "shots_off_target": 0.413, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.445, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.996, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0497, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0269, "finishing_factor": 0.9845, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0269, "assist_rate": 0.1401, "provider_weight": 0.0347, "squad_weight_total": 1.4371, "weight_share": 0.0242, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.445, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Hugo González", "weight": 0.2244, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2244, "runner_up": "Miguel Román", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2088 } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 1.76, "expected_assists": 1.31, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 443, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 12, "avg_rating": 6.89, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.8, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.5 } }, "Levante": { "formation": "4-4-2", "players": { "Mathew Ryan": { "player_id": 134029, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 184, "market_value": 1700000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.1543, "rating": 6.8739, "minutes": 86, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 23, "total_long_balls": 15, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 44, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 0.3094, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 9.0661, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3662, "shots_faced": 16.8, "expected_saves": 4.12, "high_pressure_saves": 1.41, "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà, Hugo González", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.045688 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": -0.033087 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": -0.01773 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.015783 }, { "name": "punches", "margin": 0.011342 } ], "others_margin": -0.025359 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.873897552490234, "model_output": 6.8739, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9871, "items": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0328 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0222 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0099 } ], "others": -0.0485, "total": 6.8739, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.987111, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.032788 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": -0.022207 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.014933 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.014713 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.009902 } ], "others_margin": -0.048536 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 47, "role_matches": 47, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9981, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.851, "goals_prevented": -0.1543, "rating": 6.8739, "minutes": 86.2, "total_pass": 31.977, "accurate_pass": 23.0056, "total_long_balls": 14.6642, "accurate_long_balls": 5.7678, "touches": 43.8565, "clearances": 0.848, "ball_recovery": 9.0528, "high_claims": 1.7307, "punches": 0.3094, "aerial_won": 0.2812, "sweeper_actions": 0.6713, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6713, "saves_inside_box": 1.1771, "possession_lost": 9.0661, "duels_won": 0.3674, "duels_lost": 0.1156, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0503, "total_own_half_passes": 22.0477, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.779 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9981, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 47, "history_shrink": 0.0962, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.851, "goals_prevented": -0.1543, "rating": 6.8739, "minutes": 86.2, "total_pass": 31.977, "accurate_pass": 23.0056, "total_long_balls": 14.6642, "accurate_long_balls": 5.7678, "touches": 43.8565, "clearances": 0.848, "ball_recovery": 9.0528, "high_claims": 1.7307, "punches": 0.3094, "aerial_won": 0.2812, "sweeper_actions": 0.6713, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6713, "saves_inside_box": 1.1771, "possession_lost": 9.0661, "duels_won": 0.3674, "duels_lost": 0.1156, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0503, "total_own_half_passes": 22.0477, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.779 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.851, "goals_prevented": -0.1543, "rating": 6.8739, "minutes": 86.2, "total_pass": 31.977, "accurate_pass": 23.0056, "total_long_balls": 14.6642, "accurate_long_balls": 5.7678, "touches": 43.8565, "clearances": 0.848, "ball_recovery": 9.0528, "high_claims": 1.7307, "punches": 0.3094, "aerial_won": 0.2812, "sweeper_actions": 0.6713, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6713, "saves_inside_box": 1.1771, "possession_lost": 9.0661, "duels_won": 0.3674, "duels_lost": 0.1156, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0503, "total_own_half_passes": 22.0477, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.779, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3662, "shots_faced": 13.0, "expected_saves": 3.18, "high_pressure_saves": 1.09, "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà, Hugo González", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà, Hugo González", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.3662 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.851, "goals_prevented": -0.1543, "rating": 6.8739, "minutes": 86.2, "total_pass": 31.977, "accurate_pass": 23.0056, "total_long_balls": 14.6642, "accurate_long_balls": 5.7678, "touches": 43.8565, "clearances": 0.848, "ball_recovery": 9.0528, "high_claims": 1.7307, "punches": 0.3094, "aerial_won": 0.2812, "sweeper_actions": 0.6713, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6713, "saves_inside_box": 1.1771, "possession_lost": 9.0661, "duels_won": 0.3674, "duels_lost": 0.1156, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0503, "total_own_half_passes": 22.0477, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.779, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3662, "shots_faced": 13.0, "expected_saves": 3.18, "high_pressure_saves": 1.09, "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà, Hugo González", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.1283, xG scale 1.0813, xA scale 1.1158, team xA 0.79 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.851, "goals_prevented": -0.1543, "rating": 6.8739, "minutes": 86.2, "total_pass": 31.977, "accurate_pass": 23.0056, "total_long_balls": 14.6642, "accurate_long_balls": 5.7678, "touches": 43.8565, "clearances": 0.848, "ball_recovery": 9.0528, "high_claims": 1.7307, "punches": 0.3094, "aerial_won": 0.2812, "sweeper_actions": 0.6713, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6713, "saves_inside_box": 1.1771, "possession_lost": 9.0661, "duels_won": 0.3674, "duels_lost": 0.1156, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0503, "total_own_half_passes": 22.0477, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.779, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3662, "shots_faced": 16.8, "expected_saves": 4.12, "high_pressure_saves": 1.41, "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà, Hugo González", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.22, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1283, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7107, "team_expected_assists": 0.793, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0813, "xa_scale": 1.1158, "opponent_lambda": 1.764, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 13.0, "after": 16.8 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 3.18, "after": 4.12 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.09, "after": 1.41 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.851, "goals_prevented": -0.1543, "rating": 6.8739, "minutes": 86.2, "total_pass": 31.977, "accurate_pass": 23.0056, "total_long_balls": 14.6642, "accurate_long_balls": 5.7678, "touches": 43.8565, "clearances": 0.848, "ball_recovery": 9.0528, "high_claims": 1.7307, "punches": 0.3094, "aerial_won": 0.2812, "sweeper_actions": 0.6713, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6713, "saves_inside_box": 1.1771, "possession_lost": 9.0661, "duels_won": 0.3674, "duels_lost": 0.1156, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0503, "total_own_half_passes": 22.0477, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.779, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3662, "shots_faced": 16.8, "expected_saves": 4.12, "high_pressure_saves": 1.41, "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà, Hugo González", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1126, "fifa_rank": 948.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 2.851, "goals_prevented": -0.1543, "rating": 6.8739, "minutes": 86.2, "total_pass": 31.977, "accurate_pass": 23.0056, "total_long_balls": 14.6642, "accurate_long_balls": 5.7678, "touches": 43.8565, "clearances": 0.848, 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"scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.2934, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roger Brugué", "weight": 0.32, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.32, "runner_up": "Iván Romero", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2937 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.851, "goals_prevented": -0.1543, "rating": 6.8739, "minutes": 86.2, "total_pass": 31.977, "accurate_pass": 23.0056, "total_long_balls": 14.6642, "accurate_long_balls": 5.7678, "touches": 43.8565, "clearances": 0.848, "ball_recovery": 9.0528, "high_claims": 1.7307, "punches": 0.3094, "aerial_won": 0.2812, "sweeper_actions": 0.6713, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6713, "saves_inside_box": 1.1771, "possession_lost": 9.0661, "duels_won": 0.3674, "duels_lost": 0.1156, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0503, "total_own_half_passes": 22.0477, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.779, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3662, "shots_faced": 16.8, "expected_saves": 4.12, "high_pressure_saves": 1.41, "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà, Hugo González", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 0.798, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jeremy Toljan", "weight": 0.1341, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1341, "runner_up": "Enzo Bardeli", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1232, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roger Brugué" ] } ] } } ] }, "Manuel Sánchez": { "player_id": 984789, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 179, "market_value": 6400000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.761, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 29, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 9.6104, "dispossessed": 0.627, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0015, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0154, "assists": 0, 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"season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421063.0, "match_date": "2026-10-12", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1235, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 64, "accurate_pass": 59, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 6, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 11, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416294.0, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, 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"top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.104 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.055 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0172 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0159 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0124 } ], "others": -0.0217, "total": 0.456, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.104009 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.054969 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.017188 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 0.015857 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.012379 } ], "others_margin": -0.021662 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0867, "tackles": 2.5585, "tackles_won": 1.5497, "clearances": 2.8008, "aerial_won": 0.7439, "total_shots": 0.4557, "rating": 6.761, "minutes": 84.28, "total_pass": 34.462, "accurate_pass": 29.1975, "duels_won": 4.9487, "total_long_balls": 4.632, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7908, "total_own_half_passes": 19.3337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.4145, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7832, "crosses_total": 1.2354, "crosses_accurate": 0.3423, "touches": 56.8899, "possession_lost": 9.6104, "dispossessed": 0.627, "duels_lost": 4.5771, "aerial_lost": 1.0245, "total_contest": 1.1828, "won_contest": 0.6402, "ball_recovery": 3.2613, "challenges_lost": 1.5368, "fouls": 0.8575, "fouls_drawn": 0.7976, "blocks": 0.7323, "goal_rate": 0.0015, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0154, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0078, "expected_assists": 0.0501, "shots_on_target": 0.159, "big_chances_created": 0.0482, "xgot": 0.0075, "ball_carries": 13.3031, "total_progression": 49.0909, "progressive_carries": 0.7423, "key_pass": 0.4955, "shots_off_target": 0.2967, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.614, "opponent_faced": "Javier Rueda", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.1283, xG scale 1.0813, xA scale 1.1158, team xA 0.79 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0867, "tackles": 2.5585, "tackles_won": 1.5497, "clearances": 2.8008, "aerial_won": 0.7439, "total_shots": 0.4557, "rating": 6.761, "minutes": 84.28, "total_pass": 34.462, "accurate_pass": 29.1975, "duels_won": 4.9487, "total_long_balls": 4.632, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7908, "total_own_half_passes": 19.3337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.4145, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7832, "crosses_total": 1.2354, "crosses_accurate": 0.3423, "touches": 56.8899, "possession_lost": 9.6104, "dispossessed": 0.627, "duels_lost": 4.5771, "aerial_lost": 1.0245, "total_contest": 1.1828, "won_contest": 0.6402, "ball_recovery": 3.2613, "challenges_lost": 1.5368, "fouls": 0.8575, "fouls_drawn": 0.7976, "blocks": 0.7323, "goal_rate": 0.0015, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0154, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0084, "expected_assists": 0.0559, "shots_on_target": 0.159, "big_chances_created": 0.0482, "xgot": 0.0081, "ball_carries": 13.3031, "total_progression": 49.0909, "progressive_carries": 0.7423, "key_pass": 0.4955, "shots_off_target": 0.2967, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.614, "opponent_faced": "Javier Rueda", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.891, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.22, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1283, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7107, "team_expected_assists": 0.793, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0813, "xa_scale": 1.1158, "opponent_lambda": 1.764, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0501, "after": 0.0559 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0476 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0252 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0216 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0183 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.01 } ], "others": 0.0215, "total": 6.923, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.047608 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.025233 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.02164 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.018299 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.009981 } ], "others_margin": 0.021387 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9987, quality 0.465)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.051, "tackles": 1.2269, "tackles_won": 0.7136, "clearances": 3.8235, "aerial_won": 1.0185, "total_shots": 1.2764, "rating": 6.923, "minutes": 81.76, "total_pass": 50.9138, "accurate_pass": 42.1201, "duels_won": 3.4347, "total_long_balls": 12.5488, "accurate_long_balls": 5.9996, "total_own_half_passes": 29.8605, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4049, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.0533, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7151, "crosses_total": 1.5006, "crosses_accurate": 0.4392, "touches": 66.6744, "possession_lost": 11.4697, "dispossessed": 0.1083, "duels_lost": 2.3722, "aerial_lost": 0.7435, "total_contest": 0.3636, "won_contest": 0.1969, "ball_recovery": 3.2207, "challenges_lost": 0.4628, "fouls": 0.8909, "fouls_drawn": 1.2379, "blocks": 0.3206, "goals": 0.3312, "goal_rate": 0.3312, "assists": 0.0026, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "expected_goals": 0.1291, "expected_assists": 0.0945, "shots_on_target": 0.663, "big_chances_created": 0.1123, "xgot": 0.1859, "ball_carries": 19.3041, "total_progression": 96.6824, "progressive_carries": 1.26, "key_pass": 0.3912, "shots_off_target": 0.6134 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5200000, "quality_factor": 0.4646, "boost_factor": 0.9987, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.051, "tackles": 1.2269, "tackles_won": 0.7136, "clearances": 3.8235, "aerial_won": 1.0185, "total_shots": 1.2764, "rating": 6.923, "minutes": 81.76, "total_pass": 50.9138, "accurate_pass": 42.1201, "duels_won": 3.4347, "total_long_balls": 12.5488, "accurate_long_balls": 5.9996, "total_own_half_passes": 29.8605, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4049, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.0533, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7151, "crosses_total": 1.5006, "crosses_accurate": 0.4392, "touches": 66.6744, "possession_lost": 11.4697, "dispossessed": 0.1083, "duels_lost": 2.3722, "aerial_lost": 0.7435, "total_contest": 0.3636, "won_contest": 0.1969, "ball_recovery": 3.2207, "challenges_lost": 0.4628, "fouls": 0.8909, "fouls_drawn": 1.2379, "blocks": 0.3206, "goals": 0.3312, "goal_rate": 0.3312, "assists": 0.0026, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "expected_goals": 0.1291, "expected_assists": 0.0945, "shots_on_target": 0.663, "big_chances_created": 0.1123, "xgot": 0.1859, "ball_carries": 19.3041, "total_progression": 96.6824, "progressive_carries": 1.26, "key_pass": 0.3912, "shots_off_target": 0.6134 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.051, "tackles": 1.2269, "tackles_won": 0.7136, "clearances": 3.8235, "aerial_won": 1.0185, "total_shots": 1.2764, "rating": 6.923, "minutes": 81.76, "total_pass": 50.9138, "accurate_pass": 42.1201, "duels_won": 3.4347, "total_long_balls": 12.5488, "accurate_long_balls": 5.9996, "total_own_half_passes": 29.8605, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4049, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.0533, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7151, "crosses_total": 1.5006, "crosses_accurate": 0.4392, "touches": 66.6744, "possession_lost": 11.4697, "dispossessed": 0.1083, "duels_lost": 2.3722, "aerial_lost": 0.7435, "total_contest": 0.3636, "won_contest": 0.1969, "ball_recovery": 3.2207, "challenges_lost": 0.4628, "fouls": 0.8909, "fouls_drawn": 1.2379, "blocks": 0.3206, "goals": 0.3312, "goal_rate": 0.3312, "assists": 0.0026, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "expected_goals": 0.1291, "expected_assists": 0.0945, "shots_on_target": 0.663, "big_chances_created": 0.1123, "xgot": 0.1859, "ball_carries": 19.3041, "total_progression": 96.6824, "progressive_carries": 1.26, "key_pass": 0.3912, "shots_off_target": 0.6134, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.64, "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.051, "tackles": 1.2269, "tackles_won": 0.7136, "clearances": 3.8235, "aerial_won": 1.0185, "total_shots": 1.2764, "rating": 6.923, "minutes": 81.76, "total_pass": 50.9138, "accurate_pass": 42.1201, "duels_won": 3.4347, "total_long_balls": 12.5488, "accurate_long_balls": 5.9996, "total_own_half_passes": 29.8605, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4049, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.0533, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7151, "crosses_total": 1.5006, "crosses_accurate": 0.4392, "touches": 66.6744, "possession_lost": 11.4697, "dispossessed": 0.1083, "duels_lost": 2.3722, "aerial_lost": 0.7435, "total_contest": 0.3636, "won_contest": 0.1969, "ball_recovery": 3.2207, "challenges_lost": 0.4628, "fouls": 0.8909, "fouls_drawn": 1.2379, "blocks": 0.3206, "goal_rate": 0.3312, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1291, "expected_assists": 0.0945, "shots_on_target": 0.663, "big_chances_created": 0.1123, "xgot": 0.1859, "ball_carries": 19.3041, "total_progression": 96.6824, "progressive_carries": 1.26, "key_pass": 0.3912, "shots_off_target": 0.6134, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.64, "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.1283, xG scale 1.0813, xA scale 1.1158, team xA 0.79 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.051, "tackles": 1.2269, "tackles_won": 0.7136, "clearances": 3.8235, "aerial_won": 1.0185, "total_shots": 1.2764, "rating": 6.923, "minutes": 81.76, "total_pass": 50.9138, "accurate_pass": 42.1201, "duels_won": 3.4347, "total_long_balls": 12.5488, "accurate_long_balls": 5.9996, "total_own_half_passes": 29.8605, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4049, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.0533, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7151, "crosses_total": 1.5006, "crosses_accurate": 0.4392, "touches": 66.6744, "possession_lost": 11.4697, "dispossessed": 0.1083, "duels_lost": 2.3722, "aerial_lost": 0.7435, "total_contest": 0.3636, "won_contest": 0.1969, "ball_recovery": 3.2207, "challenges_lost": 0.4628, "fouls": 0.8909, "fouls_drawn": 1.2379, "blocks": 0.3206, "goal_rate": 0.3312, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1396, "expected_assists": 0.1054, "shots_on_target": 0.663, "big_chances_created": 0.1123, "xgot": 0.201, "ball_carries": 19.3041, "total_progression": 96.6824, "progressive_carries": 1.26, "key_pass": 0.3912, "shots_off_target": 0.6134, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.64, "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.22, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1283, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7107, "team_expected_assists": 0.793, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0813, "xa_scale": 1.1158, "opponent_lambda": 1.764, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1291, "after": 0.1396 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0945, "after": 0.1054 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.051, "tackles": 1.2269, "tackles_won": 0.7136, "clearances": 3.8235, "aerial_won": 1.0185, "total_shots": 1.2764, "rating": 6.923, "minutes": 81.76, "total_pass": 50.9138, "accurate_pass": 42.1201, "duels_won": 3.4347, "total_long_balls": 12.5488, "accurate_long_balls": 5.9996, "total_own_half_passes": 29.8605, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4049, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.0533, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7151, "crosses_total": 1.5006, "crosses_accurate": 0.4392, "touches": 66.6744, "possession_lost": 11.4697, "dispossessed": 0.1083, "duels_lost": 2.3722, "aerial_lost": 0.7435, "total_contest": 0.3636, "won_contest": 0.1969, "ball_recovery": 3.2207, "challenges_lost": 0.4628, "fouls": 0.8909, "fouls_drawn": 1.2379, "blocks": 0.3206, "goal_rate": 0.3312, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1396, "expected_assists": 0.1054, "shots_on_target": 0.663, "big_chances_created": 0.1123, "xgot": 0.201, "ball_carries": 19.3041, "total_progression": 96.6824, "progressive_carries": 1.26, "key_pass": 0.3912, "shots_off_target": 0.6134, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.64, "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 118, "fifa_rank": 96.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.051, "tackles": 1.2269, "tackles_won": 0.7136, "clearances": 3.8235, "aerial_won": 1.0185, "total_shots": 1.2764, "rating": 6.923, "minutes": 81.76, "total_pass": 50.9138, "accurate_pass": 42.1201, "duels_won": 3.4347, "total_long_balls": 12.5488, "accurate_long_balls": 5.9996, "total_own_half_passes": 29.8605, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4049, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.0533, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7151, "crosses_total": 1.5006, "crosses_accurate": 0.4392, "touches": 66.6744, "possession_lost": 11.4697, "dispossessed": 0.1083, "duels_lost": 2.3722, "aerial_lost": 0.7435, "total_contest": 0.3636, "won_contest": 0.1969, "ball_recovery": 3.2207, "challenges_lost": 0.4628, "fouls": 0.8909, "fouls_drawn": 1.2379, "blocks": 0.3206, "goal_rate": 0.3312, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1396, "expected_assists": 0.1054, "shots_on_target": 0.663, "big_chances_created": 0.1123, "xgot": 0.201, "ball_carries": 19.3041, "total_progression": 96.6824, "progressive_carries": 1.26, "key_pass": 0.3912, "shots_off_target": 0.6134, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.64, "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1303, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1303, "goal_rate": 0.3312, "scorer_weight": 0.1745, "squad_weight_total": 1.2934, "weight_share": 0.1349, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roger Brugué", "weight": 0.32, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.32, "runner_up": "Iván Romero", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2937 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.051, "tackles": 1.2269, "tackles_won": 0.7136, "clearances": 3.8235, "aerial_won": 1.0185, "total_shots": 1.2764, "rating": 6.923, "minutes": 81.76, "total_pass": 50.9138, "accurate_pass": 42.1201, "duels_won": 3.4347, "total_long_balls": 12.5488, "accurate_long_balls": 5.9996, "total_own_half_passes": 29.8605, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.4049, 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6925, "tackles": 1.2149, "tackles_won": 0.716, "clearances": 2.3789, "aerial_won": 0.6757, "total_shots": 0.4238, "rating": 6.579, "minutes": 82.59, "total_pass": 26.4785, "accurate_pass": 20.1085, "duels_won": 2.4633, "total_long_balls": 4.3282, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1287, "total_own_half_passes": 12.5871, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.0026, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.8915, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.106, "crosses_total": 2.4802, "crosses_accurate": 0.6167, "touches": 42.6578, "possession_lost": 10.4895, "dispossessed": 0.0679, "duels_lost": 2.5863, "aerial_lost": 0.8719, "total_contest": 0.3656, "won_contest": 0.1873, "ball_recovery": 2.3282, "challenges_lost": 0.6856, "fouls": 0.7833, "fouls_drawn": 0.5527, "blocks": 0.2711, "goal_rate": 0.0002, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1449, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0294, "expected_assists": 0.0962, "shots_on_target": 0.0002, "big_chances_created": 0.2396, "xgot": 0.0002, "ball_carries": 8.1135, "total_progression": 28.1819, "progressive_carries": 0.7278, "key_pass": 0.7547, "shots_off_target": 0.4236, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.811, "opponent_faced": "Hugo González", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.1283, xG scale 1.0813, xA scale 1.1158, team xA 0.79 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6925, "tackles": 1.2149, "tackles_won": 0.716, "clearances": 2.3789, "aerial_won": 0.6757, "total_shots": 0.4238, "rating": 6.579, "minutes": 82.59, "total_pass": 26.4785, "accurate_pass": 20.1085, "duels_won": 2.4633, "total_long_balls": 4.3282, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1287, "total_own_half_passes": 12.5871, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.0026, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.8915, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.106, "crosses_total": 2.4802, "crosses_accurate": 0.6167, "touches": 42.6578, "possession_lost": 10.4895, "dispossessed": 0.0679, "duels_lost": 2.5863, "aerial_lost": 0.8719, "total_contest": 0.3656, "won_contest": 0.1873, "ball_recovery": 2.3282, "challenges_lost": 0.6856, "fouls": 0.7833, "fouls_drawn": 0.5527, "blocks": 0.2711, "goal_rate": 0.0002, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1449, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0318, "expected_assists": 0.1073, "shots_on_target": 0.0002, "big_chances_created": 0.2396, "xgot": 0.0002, "ball_carries": 8.1135, "total_progression": 28.1819, "progressive_carries": 0.7278, "key_pass": 0.7547, "shots_off_target": 0.4236, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.811, "opponent_faced": "Hugo González", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.22, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1283, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7107, "team_expected_assists": 0.793, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0813, "xa_scale": 1.1158, "opponent_lambda": 1.764, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0962, "after": 0.1073 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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1.2443, "total_contest": 0.9678, "won_contest": 0.6102, "challenges_lost": 0.7998, "fouls": 1.1273, "fouls_drawn": 0.9171, "blocks": 0.2994, "big_chances_created": 0.3152, "big_chances_missed": 0.0476, "xgot": 0.1005, "ball_carries": 15.2473, "total_progression": 75.0807, "progressive_carries": 1.638, "shots_off_target": 0.7453 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9979, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4148, "expected_assists": 0.1316, "assists": 0.0995, "assist_rate": 0.0995, "expected_goals": 0.0867, "goals": 0.0977, "goal_rate": 0.0977, "shots_on_target": 0.3879, "total_shots": 1.1332, "rating": 6.9216, "minutes": 86.43, "total_pass": 40.2073, "accurate_pass": 32.0448, "duels_won": 3.8495, "total_long_balls": 5.4657, 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"aerialWon", "before": 0.5268, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.1332, "after": 1.0154 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7453, "after": 0.6678 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3879, "after": 0.3476 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1005, "after": 0.09 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0977, "after": 0.0875 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0867, "after": 0.0777 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.0476, "after": 0.0426 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4148, "expected_assists": 0.1316, "assist_rate": 0.0995, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0777, "goal_rate": 0.0875, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3476, "total_shots": 1.0154, "rating": 6.9216, "minutes": 86.43, "total_pass": 40.2073, "accurate_pass": 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"antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0767, "creation_factor": 0.8232 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.22, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1283, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7107, "team_expected_assists": 0.793, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0813, "xa_scale": 1.1158, "opponent_lambda": 1.764, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0777, "after": 0.084 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1316, "after": 0.147 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.061506 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.037843 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.033676 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.017767 } ], "others_margin": 0.014181 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.773097515106201, "model_output": 6.7731, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.034 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0266 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0115 } ], "others": -0.041, "total": 6.7731, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.034044 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.02663 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.012451 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01193 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011542 } ], "others_margin": -0.04097 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9922, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5217, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "assists": 0.0479, "assist_rate": 0.0479, "expected_goals": 0.0808, "goals": 0.0781, "goal_rate": 0.0781, "shots_on_target": 0.3093, "total_shots": 1.145, "rating": 6.7731, "minutes": 78.47, "total_pass": 22.9215, "accurate_pass": 20.0873, "duels_won": 6.0541, "total_long_balls": 0.333, "accurate_long_balls": 0.333, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.8364, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.064, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.251, "crosses_total": 0.5351, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.6794, "possession_lost": 6.1057, "dispossessed": 0.4548, "duels_lost": 5.9343, "aerial_won": 0.6252, "aerial_lost": 1.2546, "interceptions": 0.2675, "tackles_won": 2.4948, "tackles": 4.3602, "clearances": 1.9675, 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0.333, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.8364, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.064, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.251, "crosses_total": 0.5351, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.6794, "possession_lost": 6.1057, "dispossessed": 0.4548, "duels_lost": 5.9343, "aerial_won": 0.6252, "aerial_lost": 1.2546, "interceptions": 0.2675, "tackles_won": 2.4948, "tackles": 4.3602, "clearances": 1.9675, "total_contest": 1.4743, "won_contest": 0.4072, "challenges_lost": 1.0799, "fouls": 2.0779, "fouls_drawn": 0.6616, "blocks": 0.2675, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2317, "xgot": 0.226, "ball_carries": 9.707, "total_progression": 28.6348, "progressive_carries": 0.7284, "shots_off_target": 0.8356 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5217, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "assists": 0.0479, "assist_rate": 0.0479, "expected_goals": 0.0764, "goals": 0.0739, "goal_rate": 0.0739, "shots_on_target": 0.2926, "total_shots": 1.0833, "rating": 6.7731, "minutes": 78.47, "total_pass": 22.9215, "accurate_pass": 20.0873, "duels_won": 6.0541, "total_long_balls": 0.333, "accurate_long_balls": 0.333, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.8364, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.064, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.251, "crosses_total": 0.5351, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.6794, "possession_lost": 6.1057, "dispossessed": 0.4548, "duels_lost": 5.9343, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 1.2546, "interceptions": 0.2675, "tackles_won": 2.4948, "tackles": 4.3602, "clearances": 1.9675, "total_contest": 1.4743, "won_contest": 0.4072, "challenges_lost": 1.0799, "fouls": 2.0779, "fouls_drawn": 0.6616, "blocks": 0.2675, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2192, "xgot": 0.2138, "ball_carries": 9.707, "total_progression": 28.6348, "progressive_carries": 0.7284, "shots_off_target": 0.7906, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9461, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.383, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Miguel Román", "opponent_faced": "Miguel Román", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Miguel Román", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "duel_win_rate": 0.383, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9461, "skill_edge": -0.0686, "height_edge": 0.032, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.59, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Miguel Román", "market_value": 14400000, "role": "CM", "price_index": 0.9, "adjusted_quality": 0.59 } ], "xg_override": 0.0764 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.6252, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.145, "after": 1.0833 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.8356, "after": 0.7906 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3093, "after": 0.2926 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.2317, "after": 0.2192 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.226, "after": 0.2138 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5217, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "assist_rate": 0.0479, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0764, "goal_rate": 0.0739, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2926, "total_shots": 1.0833, "rating": 6.7731, "minutes": 78.47, "total_pass": 22.9215, "accurate_pass": 20.0873, "duels_won": 6.0541, "total_long_balls": 0.333, "accurate_long_balls": 0.333, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.8364, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.064, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.251, "crosses_total": 0.5351, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.6794, "possession_lost": 6.1057, "dispossessed": 0.4548, "duels_lost": 5.9343, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 1.2546, "interceptions": 0.2675, "tackles_won": 2.4948, "tackles": 4.3602, "clearances": 1.9675, "total_contest": 1.4743, "won_contest": 0.4072, "challenges_lost": 1.0799, "fouls": 2.0779, "fouls_drawn": 0.6616, "blocks": 0.2675, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2192, "xgot": 0.2138, "ball_carries": 9.707, "total_progression": 28.6348, "progressive_carries": 0.7284, "shots_off_target": 0.7906, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9461, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.383, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Miguel Román", "opponent_faced": "Miguel Román", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.1283, xG scale 1.0813, xA scale 1.1158, team xA 0.79 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5217, "expected_assists": 0.0383, "assist_rate": 0.0479, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0826, "goal_rate": 0.0739, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2926, "total_shots": 1.0833, "rating": 6.7731, "minutes": 78.47, "total_pass": 22.9215, "accurate_pass": 20.0873, "duels_won": 6.0541, "total_long_balls": 0.333, "accurate_long_balls": 0.333, 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.043378 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.043121 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.024997 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.02405 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.007455 } ], "others_margin": -0.038342 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9959, quality 0.472)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9695, "expected_assists": 0.0951, "assists": 0.1185, "assist_rate": 0.1185, "expected_goals": 0.0827, "goals": 0.0689, "goal_rate": 0.0689, "shots_on_target": 0.2504, "total_shots": 0.8747, "rating": 6.7242, "minutes": 72.86, "total_pass": 20.5575, "accurate_pass": 16.7172, "duels_won": 1.6122, "total_long_balls": 0.4087, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2685, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8119, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.259, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4582, "crosses_total": 2.2992, "crosses_accurate": 0.4991, "touches": 29.8012, "possession_lost": 7.4943, "dispossessed": 0.5872, "duels_lost": 3.3128, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.5581, "interceptions": 0.8506, "tackles_won": 0.6931, "tackles": 1.1154, "clearances": 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"top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1861 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0398 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0371 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0359 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0314 } ], "others": 0.0219, "total": 0.8273, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.238266 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.046439 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.045344 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.043888 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.038255 } ], "others_margin": 0.026894 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.812171936035156, "model_output": 6.8122, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0516 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.021 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0142 } ], "others": -0.0148, "total": 6.8122, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.051618 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.020994 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016901 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.01616 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.014198 } ], "others_margin": -0.014913 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9996, quality 0.491)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2469, "goals": 0.2916, "goal_rate": 0.2916, "shots_on_target": 0.7577, "total_shots": 1.9325, "expected_assists": 0.0624, "key_pass": 0.827, "rating": 6.8122, "minutes": 72.98, "total_pass": 19.2718, "accurate_pass": 14.665, "duels_won": 4.9888, "total_long_balls": 0.8795, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7147, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5309, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9547, "crosses_total": 0.3787, "crosses_accurate": 0.0178, "touches": 34.8545, "possession_lost": 11.0678, "dispossessed": 1.3284, "duels_lost": 5.1521, "aerial_lost": 1.3019, "total_contest": 2.0057, "won_contest": 0.8475, "ball_recovery": 3.0101, "challenges_lost": 0.4057, "fouls": 1.2395, "fouls_drawn": 1.8793, "assists": 0.0028, "assist_rate": 0.0028, "interceptions": 0.5361, "tackles_won": 0.6693, "tackles": 1.0942, "clearances": 0.5678, "blocks": 0.003, "big_chances_created": 0.2609, "big_chances_missed": 0.24, "xgot": 0.2253, "offsides": 0.0635, "ball_carries": 9.5156, "total_progression": 19.8016, "progressive_carries": 1.1341, "shots_off_target": 1.1748 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7400000, "quality_factor": 0.4915, "boost_factor": 0.9996, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2469, "goals": 0.2916, "goal_rate": 0.2916, "shots_on_target": 0.7577, "total_shots": 1.9325, "expected_assists": 0.0624, "key_pass": 0.827, "rating": 6.8122, "minutes": 72.98, "total_pass": 19.2718, "accurate_pass": 14.665, "duels_won": 4.9888, "total_long_balls": 0.8795, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7147, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5309, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9547, "crosses_total": 0.3787, "crosses_accurate": 0.0178, "touches": 34.8545, "possession_lost": 11.0678, "dispossessed": 1.3284, "duels_lost": 5.1521, "aerial_lost": 1.3019, "total_contest": 2.0057, "won_contest": 0.8475, "ball_recovery": 3.0101, "challenges_lost": 0.4057, "fouls": 1.2395, "fouls_drawn": 1.8793, "assists": 0.0028, "assist_rate": 0.0028, "interceptions": 0.5361, "tackles_won": 0.6693, "tackles": 1.0942, "clearances": 0.5678, "blocks": 0.003, "big_chances_created": 0.2609, "big_chances_missed": 0.24, "xgot": 0.2253, "offsides": 0.0635, "ball_carries": 9.5156, "total_progression": 19.8016, "progressive_carries": 1.1341, "shots_off_target": 1.1748 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2363, "goals": 0.2791, "goal_rate": 0.2791, "shots_on_target": 0.7252, "total_shots": 1.8496, "expected_assists": 0.0624, "key_pass": 0.827, "rating": 6.8122, "minutes": 72.98, "total_pass": 19.2718, "accurate_pass": 14.665, "duels_won": 4.9888, "total_long_balls": 0.8795, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7147, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5309, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9547, "crosses_total": 0.3787, "crosses_accurate": 0.0178, "touches": 34.8545, "possession_lost": 11.0678, "dispossessed": 1.3284, "duels_lost": 5.1521, "aerial_lost": 1.3019, "total_contest": 2.0057, "won_contest": 0.8475, "ball_recovery": 3.0101, "challenges_lost": 0.4057, "fouls": 1.2395, "fouls_drawn": 1.8793, "assists": 0.0028, "assist_rate": 0.0028, "interceptions": 0.5361, "tackles_won": 0.6693, "tackles": 1.0942, "clearances": 0.5678, "blocks": 0.003, "big_chances_created": 0.2609, "big_chances_missed": 0.2297, "xgot": 0.2156, "offsides": 0.0635, "ball_carries": 9.5156, "total_progression": 19.8016, "progressive_carries": 1.1341, "shots_off_target": 1.1244, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9571, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yoel Lago, Álvaro Núñez", "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago, Álvaro Núñez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago, Álvaro Núñez", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.9571, "skill_edge": 0.0008, "height_edge": -0.03, "attacker_skill": 0.4915, "defender_skill": 0.4896, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Yoel Lago", "market_value": 7000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.5146 }, { "player": "Álvaro Núñez", "market_value": 3900000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4646 } ], "xg_override": 0.2363 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.9325, "after": 1.8496 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.1748, "after": 1.1244 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7577, "after": 0.7252 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2916, "after": 0.2791 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2469, "after": 0.2363 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.24, "after": 0.2297 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2253, "after": 0.2156 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2363, "goal_rate": 0.2791, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7252, "total_shots": 1.8496, "expected_assists": 0.0624, "key_pass": 0.827, "rating": 6.8122, "minutes": 72.98, "total_pass": 19.2718, "accurate_pass": 14.665, "duels_won": 4.9888, "total_long_balls": 0.8795, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7147, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5309, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9547, "crosses_total": 0.3787, "crosses_accurate": 0.0178, "touches": 34.8545, "possession_lost": 11.0678, "dispossessed": 1.3284, "duels_lost": 5.1521, "aerial_lost": 1.3019, "total_contest": 2.0057, "won_contest": 0.8475, "ball_recovery": 3.0101, "challenges_lost": 0.4057, "fouls": 1.2395, "fouls_drawn": 1.8793, "assist_rate": 0.0028, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5361, "tackles_won": 0.6693, "tackles": 1.0942, "clearances": 0.5678, "blocks": 0.003, "big_chances_created": 0.2609, "big_chances_missed": 0.2297, "xgot": 0.2156, "offsides": 0.0635, "ball_carries": 9.5156, "total_progression": 19.8016, "progressive_carries": 1.1341, "shots_off_target": 1.1244, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9571, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yoel Lago, Álvaro Núñez", "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago, Álvaro Núñez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.1283, xG scale 1.0813, xA scale 1.1158, team xA 0.79 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2555, "goal_rate": 0.2791, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7252, "total_shots": 1.8496, "expected_assists": 0.0696, "key_pass": 0.827, "rating": 6.8122, "minutes": 72.98, "total_pass": 19.2718, "accurate_pass": 14.665, "duels_won": 4.9888, "total_long_balls": 0.8795, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7147, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5309, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9547, "crosses_total": 0.3787, "crosses_accurate": 0.0178, "touches": 34.8545, "possession_lost": 11.0678, "dispossessed": 1.3284, "duels_lost": 5.1521, "aerial_lost": 1.3019, "total_contest": 2.0057, "won_contest": 0.8475, "ball_recovery": 3.0101, "challenges_lost": 0.4057, "fouls": 1.2395, "fouls_drawn": 1.8793, "assist_rate": 0.0028, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5361, "tackles_won": 0.6693, "tackles": 1.0942, "clearances": 0.5678, "blocks": 0.003, "big_chances_created": 0.2609, "big_chances_missed": 0.2297, "xgot": 0.2331, "offsides": 0.0635, "ball_carries": 9.5156, "total_progression": 19.8016, "progressive_carries": 1.1341, "shots_off_target": 1.1244, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9571, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yoel Lago, Álvaro Núñez", "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago, Álvaro Núñez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1495, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.22, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1283, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7107, "team_expected_assists": 0.793, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0813, "xa_scale": 1.1158, "opponent_lambda": 1.764, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2363, "after": 0.2555 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0624, "after": 0.0696 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2555, "goal_rate": 0.2791, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7252, "total_shots": 1.8496, "expected_assists": 0.0696, "key_pass": 0.827, "rating": 6.8122, "minutes": 72.98, "total_pass": 19.2718, "accurate_pass": 14.665, "duels_won": 4.9888, "total_long_balls": 0.8795, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7147, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5309, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9547, "crosses_total": 0.3787, "crosses_accurate": 0.0178, "touches": 34.8545, "possession_lost": 11.0678, "dispossessed": 1.3284, "duels_lost": 5.1521, "aerial_lost": 1.3019, "total_contest": 2.0057, "won_contest": 0.8475, "ball_recovery": 3.0101, "challenges_lost": 0.4057, "fouls": 1.2395, "fouls_drawn": 1.8793, "assist_rate": 0.0028, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5361, "tackles_won": 0.6693, "tackles": 1.0942, "clearances": 0.5678, "blocks": 0.003, "big_chances_created": 0.2609, "big_chances_missed": 0.2297, "xgot": 0.2331, "offsides": 0.0635, "ball_carries": 9.5156, "total_progression": 19.8016, "progressive_carries": 1.1341, "shots_off_target": 1.1244, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9571, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yoel Lago, Álvaro Núñez", "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago, Álvaro Núñez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1495, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3447, "fifa_rank": 2411.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2555, "goal_rate": 0.2791, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7252, "total_shots": 1.8496, "expected_assists": 0.0696, "key_pass": 0.827, "rating": 6.8122, "minutes": 72.98, "total_pass": 19.2718, "accurate_pass": 14.665, "duels_won": 4.9888, "total_long_balls": 0.8795, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7147, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5309, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9547, "crosses_total": 0.3787, "crosses_accurate": 0.0178, "touches": 34.8545, "possession_lost": 11.0678, "dispossessed": 1.3284, "duels_lost": 5.1521, "aerial_lost": 1.3019, "total_contest": 2.0057, "won_contest": 0.8475, "ball_recovery": 3.0101, "challenges_lost": 0.4057, "fouls": 1.2395, "fouls_drawn": 1.8793, "assist_rate": 0.0028, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5361, "tackles_won": 0.6693, "tackles": 1.0942, "clearances": 0.5678, "blocks": 0.003, "big_chances_created": 0.2609, "big_chances_missed": 0.2297, "xgot": 0.2331, "offsides": 0.0635, "ball_carries": 9.5156, "total_progression": 19.8016, "progressive_carries": 1.1341, "shots_off_target": 1.1244, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9571, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Yoel Lago, Álvaro Núñez", "opponent_faced": "Yoel Lago, Álvaro Núñez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2255, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1495, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2255, "goal_rate": 0.2791, "scorer_weight": 0.2937, "squad_weight_total": 1.2934, "weight_share": 0.2271, "finishing_factor": 1.1495, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roger Brugué", "weight": 0.32, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.32, "runner_up": "Iván Romero", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2937 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2555, "goal_rate": 0.2791, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7252, "total_shots": 1.8496, "expected_assists": 0.0696, "key_pass": 0.827, "rating": 6.8122, "minutes": 72.98, "total_pass": 19.2718, "accurate_pass": 14.665, "duels_won": 4.9888, "total_long_balls": 0.8795, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7147, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5309, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9547, "crosses_total": 0.3787, "crosses_accurate": 0.0178, "touches": 34.8545, "possession_lost": 11.0678, "dispossessed": 1.3284, "duels_lost": 5.1521, "aerial_lost": 1.3019, "total_contest": 2.0057, "won_contest": 0.8475, "ball_recovery": 3.0101, "challenges_lost": 0.4057, "fouls": 1.2395, "fouls_drawn": 1.8793, "assist_rate": 0.0028, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5361, "tackles_won": 0.6693, "tackles": 1.0942, "clearances": 0.5678, "blocks": 0.003, "big_chances_created": 0.2609, "big_chances_missed": 0.2297, "xgot": 0.2331, "offsides": 0.0635, "ball_carries": 9.5156, "total_progression": 19.8016, "progressive_carries": 1.1341, "shots_off_target": 1.1244, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9571, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", 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{ "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8451 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1559 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0522 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0484 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0457 } ], "others": -0.0257, "total": 0.2935, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.959648 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.352639 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.152629 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.142278 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.133818 } ], "others_margin": -0.084069 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.18942226469516754, "model_output": 0.1894, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1687 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0671 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0182 } ], "others": 0.0, "total": 0.1894, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.168667 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.067148 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.019528 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.018251 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018163 } ], "others_margin": -6.8e-05 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.613088130950928, "model_output": 6.6131, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0495 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0208 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0154 } ], "others": -0.0642, "total": 6.6131, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.049536 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.020845 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019667 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.016145 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.015369 } ], "others_margin": -0.06413 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"contribution": -0.0245 } ], "others": -0.1004, "total": 0.1793, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.323088 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.269457 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.047729 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.040432 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.024541 } ], "others_margin": -0.100377 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.73061990737915, "model_output": 6.7306, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0922 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0075 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0043 } ], "others": 0.0033, "total": 6.7306, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.092219 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019662 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.007474 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.006418 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.004318 } ], "others_margin": 0.003305 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.460)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3586, "expected_assists": 0.0314, "assists": 0.0473, "assist_rate": 0.0473, "expected_goals": 0.0144, "goals": 0.0237, "goal_rate": 0.0237, "shots_on_target": 0.0634, "total_shots": 0.1789, "rating": 6.7306, "minutes": 17.5, "total_pass": 11.9689, "accurate_pass": 10.0637, "duels_won": 1.0409, "total_long_balls": 1.22, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2812, "total_own_half_passes": 5.1783, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.5401, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7905, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5236, "crosses_total": 0.0831, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7291, "possession_lost": 2.5957, "dispossessed": 0.3225, "duels_lost": 1.4276, "aerial_won": 0.1149, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.8157, "tackles_won": 0.2703, "tackles": 0.6556, "clearances": 0.4, "total_contest": 0.0978, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3333, "fouls": 0.3718, "fouls_drawn": 0.2703, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.9276, "total_progression": 0.4997, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1155 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4800000, "quality_factor": 0.4597, "boost_factor": 0.9977, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 24, "history_shrink": 0.1724, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.5 to 22.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.50)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4521, "expected_assists": 0.0396, "assists": 0.0596, "assist_rate": 0.0596, "expected_goals": 0.0182, "goals": 0.0299, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "shots_on_target": 0.0799, "total_shots": 0.2255, "rating": 6.7306, "minutes": 22.06, "total_pass": 15.088, "accurate_pass": 12.6863, "duels_won": 1.3122, "total_long_balls": 1.5379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3545, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5278, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.7232, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5601, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.963, "crosses_total": 0.1048, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.8281, "possession_lost": 3.2721, "dispossessed": 0.3225, "duels_lost": 1.7996, "aerial_won": 0.1448, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 1.0283, "tackles_won": 0.3407, "tackles": 0.8264, "clearances": 0.5042, "total_contest": 0.1233, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3333, "fouls": 0.4687, "fouls_drawn": 0.3407, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4299, "total_progression": 0.6299, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1456, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.06 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.06, "projection_minutes": 17.5, "minutes_scale": 1.2606, "appearance_probability": 0.503 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4521, "expected_assists": 0.0396, "assists": 0.0596, "assist_rate": 0.0596, "expected_goals": 0.0182, "goals": 0.0299, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "shots_on_target": 0.0799, "total_shots": 0.2255, "rating": 6.7306, "minutes": 22.06, "total_pass": 15.088, "accurate_pass": 12.6863, "duels_won": 1.3122, "total_long_balls": 1.5379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3545, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5278, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.7232, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5601, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.963, "crosses_total": 0.1048, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.8281, "possession_lost": 3.2721, "dispossessed": 0.3225, "duels_lost": 1.7996, "aerial_won": 0.1448, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 1.0283, "tackles_won": 0.3407, "tackles": 0.8264, "clearances": 0.5042, "total_contest": 0.1233, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3333, "fouls": 0.4687, "fouls_drawn": 0.3407, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4299, "total_progression": 0.6299, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1456, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.06 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4521, "expected_assists": 0.0396, "assist_rate": 0.0596, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0182, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0799, "total_shots": 0.2255, "rating": 6.7306, "minutes": 22.06, "total_pass": 15.088, "accurate_pass": 12.6863, "duels_won": 1.3122, "total_long_balls": 1.5379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3545, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5278, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.7232, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5601, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.963, "crosses_total": 0.1048, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.8281, "possession_lost": 3.2721, "dispossessed": 0.3225, "duels_lost": 1.7996, "aerial_won": 0.1448, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 1.0283, "tackles_won": 0.3407, "tackles": 0.8264, "clearances": 0.5042, "total_contest": 0.1233, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3333, "fouls": 0.4687, "fouls_drawn": 0.3407, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4299, "total_progression": 0.6299, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1456, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.06, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.457, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.1283, xG scale 1.0813, xA scale 1.1158, team xA 0.79 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4521, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "assist_rate": 0.0596, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0099, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0799, "total_shots": 0.2255, "rating": 6.7306, "minutes": 22.06, "total_pass": 15.088, "accurate_pass": 12.6863, "duels_won": 1.3122, "total_long_balls": 1.5379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3545, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5278, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.7232, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5601, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.963, "crosses_total": 0.1048, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.8281, "possession_lost": 3.2721, "dispossessed": 0.3225, "duels_lost": 1.7996, "aerial_won": 0.1448, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 1.0283, "tackles_won": 0.3407, "tackles": 0.8264, "clearances": 0.5042, "total_contest": 0.1233, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3333, "fouls": 0.4687, "fouls_drawn": 0.3407, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4299, "total_progression": 0.6299, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1456, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.06, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.457, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1716, "creation_factor": 1.2232 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.22, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1283, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7107, "team_expected_assists": 0.793, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0813, "xa_scale": 1.1158, "opponent_lambda": 1.764, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.503 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0182, "after": 0.0099 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0396, "after": 0.0222 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4521, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "assist_rate": 0.0596, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0099, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0799, "total_shots": 0.2255, "rating": 6.7306, "minutes": 22.06, "total_pass": 15.088, "accurate_pass": 12.6863, "duels_won": 1.3122, "total_long_balls": 1.5379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3545, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5278, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.7232, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5601, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.963, "crosses_total": 0.1048, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.8281, "possession_lost": 3.2721, "dispossessed": 0.3225, "duels_lost": 1.7996, "aerial_won": 0.1448, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 1.0283, "tackles_won": 0.3407, "tackles": 0.8264, "clearances": 0.5042, "total_contest": 0.1233, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3333, "fouls": 0.4687, "fouls_drawn": 0.3407, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4299, "total_progression": 0.6299, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1456, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.06, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.457, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1716, "creation_factor": 1.2232, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3677, "fifa_rank": 2905.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4521, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "assist_rate": 0.0596, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0099, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0799, "total_shots": 0.2255, "rating": 6.7306, "minutes": 22.06, "total_pass": 15.088, "accurate_pass": 12.6863, "duels_won": 1.3122, "total_long_balls": 1.5379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3545, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5278, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.7232, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5601, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.963, "crosses_total": 0.1048, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.8281, "possession_lost": 3.2721, "dispossessed": 0.3225, "duels_lost": 1.7996, "aerial_won": 0.1448, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 1.0283, "tackles_won": 0.3407, "tackles": 0.8264, "clearances": 0.5042, "total_contest": 0.1233, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3333, "fouls": 0.4687, "fouls_drawn": 0.3407, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4299, "total_progression": 0.6299, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1456, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.06, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.457, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0098, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1716, "creation_factor": 1.2232, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0098, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "scorer_weight": 0.0116, "squad_weight_total": 1.2934, "weight_share": 0.009, "finishing_factor": 1.1716, "appearance_weight": 0.503, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roger Brugué", "weight": 0.32, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.32, "runner_up": "Iván Romero", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2937 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4521, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "assist_rate": 0.0596, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0099, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0799, "total_shots": 0.2255, "rating": 6.7306, "minutes": 22.06, "total_pass": 15.088, "accurate_pass": 12.6863, "duels_won": 1.3122, "total_long_balls": 1.5379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3545, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5278, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.7232, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5601, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.963, "crosses_total": 0.1048, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.8281, "possession_lost": 3.2721, "dispossessed": 0.3225, "duels_lost": 1.7996, "aerial_won": 0.1448, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 1.0283, "tackles_won": 0.3407, "tackles": 0.8264, "clearances": 0.5042, "total_contest": 0.1233, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3333, "fouls": 0.4687, "fouls_drawn": 0.3407, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4299, "total_progression": 0.6299, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1456, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.06, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.457, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0098, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0217, "finishing_factor": 1.1716, "creation_factor": 1.2232, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0217, "assist_rate": 0.0596, "provider_weight": 0.0272, "squad_weight_total": 0.798, "weight_share": 0.034, "creation_factor": 1.2232, "appearance_weight": 0.503, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jeremy Toljan", "weight": 0.1341, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1341, "runner_up": "Enzo Bardeli", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1232, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roger Brugué" ] } ] } } ] }, "Manel Usedo Domingo": { "player_id": 2279571, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 34, "height": 190, "market_value": 0, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0269, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "expected_goals": 0.0198, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 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"prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 20, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0004, quality 0.515)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1482, "goals": 0.1378, "goal_rate": 0.1378, "shots_on_target": 0.3454, "total_shots": 0.7881, "expected_assists": 0.0189, "key_pass": 0.2494, "rating": 6.5697, "minutes": 18.75, "total_pass": 3.3347, "accurate_pass": 1.8784, "duels_won": 1.7178, "total_long_balls": 0.0938, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0749, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.5726, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4494, "crosses_total": 0.2948, "crosses_accurate": 0.1127, "touches": 8.4399, "possession_lost": 3.4692, "dispossessed": 0.4786, "duels_lost": 2.6536, "aerial_lost": 1.039, "total_contest": 0.2211, "won_contest": 0.0672, "ball_recovery": 0.5089, "challenges_lost": 0.093, "fouls": 0.889, "fouls_drawn": 0.7047, "assists": 0.1289, "assist_rate": 0.1289, "interceptions": 0.1014, "tackles_won": 0.0071, "tackles": 0.1438, "clearances": 0.0493, "blocks": 0.0222, "big_chances_created": 0.13, "big_chances_missed": 0.3156, "xgot": 0.2573, "offsides": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 1.4276, "total_progression": 3.2314, "progressive_carries": 0.0189, "shots_off_target": 0.4427 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9400000, "quality_factor": 0.5154, "boost_factor": 1.0004, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.8 to 25.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2023, "goals": 0.1881, "goal_rate": 0.1881, "shots_on_target": 0.4716, "total_shots": 1.0761, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "key_pass": 0.3405, "rating": 6.5697, "minutes": 25.6, "total_pass": 4.5531, "accurate_pass": 2.5647, "duels_won": 2.3455, "total_long_balls": 0.1281, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1023, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5126, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.979, "crosses_total": 0.4025, "crosses_accurate": 0.1539, "touches": 11.5237, "possession_lost": 4.7368, "dispossessed": 0.4786, "duels_lost": 3.6232, "aerial_lost": 1.039, "total_contest": 0.3019, "won_contest": 0.0918, "ball_recovery": 0.6948, "challenges_lost": 0.093, "fouls": 1.2138, "fouls_drawn": 0.9622, "assists": 0.176, "assist_rate": 0.176, "interceptions": 0.1384, "tackles_won": 0.0097, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.0673, "blocks": 0.0303, "big_chances_created": 0.1775, "big_chances_missed": 0.4309, "xgot": 0.3513, "offsides": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 1.9492, "total_progression": 4.4121, "progressive_carries": 0.0258, "shots_off_target": 0.6045, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.6 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.6, "projection_minutes": 18.75, "minutes_scale": 1.3654, "appearance_probability": 0.573 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2023, "goals": 0.1881, "goal_rate": 0.1881, "shots_on_target": 0.4716, "total_shots": 1.0761, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "key_pass": 0.3405, "rating": 6.5697, "minutes": 25.6, "total_pass": 4.5531, "accurate_pass": 2.5647, "duels_won": 2.3455, "total_long_balls": 0.1281, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1023, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5126, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.979, "crosses_total": 0.4025, "crosses_accurate": 0.1539, "touches": 11.5237, "possession_lost": 4.7368, "dispossessed": 0.4786, "duels_lost": 3.6232, "aerial_lost": 1.039, "total_contest": 0.3019, "won_contest": 0.0918, "ball_recovery": 0.6948, "challenges_lost": 0.093, "fouls": 1.2138, "fouls_drawn": 0.9622, "assists": 0.176, "assist_rate": 0.176, "interceptions": 0.1384, "tackles_won": 0.0097, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.0673, "blocks": 0.0303, "big_chances_created": 0.1775, "big_chances_missed": 0.4309, "xgot": 0.3513, "offsides": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 1.9492, "total_progression": 4.4121, "progressive_carries": 0.0258, "shots_off_target": 0.6045, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.6 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2023, "goal_rate": 0.1881, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4716, "total_shots": 1.0761, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "key_pass": 0.3405, "rating": 6.5697, "minutes": 25.6, "total_pass": 4.5531, "accurate_pass": 2.5647, "duels_won": 2.3455, "total_long_balls": 0.1281, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1023, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5126, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.979, "crosses_total": 0.4025, "crosses_accurate": 0.1539, "touches": 11.5237, "possession_lost": 4.7368, "dispossessed": 0.4786, "duels_lost": 3.6232, "aerial_lost": 1.039, "total_contest": 0.3019, "won_contest": 0.0918, "ball_recovery": 0.6948, "challenges_lost": 0.093, "fouls": 1.2138, "fouls_drawn": 0.9622, "assist_rate": 0.176, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1384, "tackles_won": 0.0097, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.0673, "blocks": 0.0303, "big_chances_created": 0.1775, "big_chances_missed": 0.4309, "xgot": 0.3513, "offsides": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 1.9492, "total_progression": 4.4121, "progressive_carries": 0.0258, "shots_off_target": 0.6045, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.6, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.457, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.1283, xG scale 1.0813, xA scale 1.1158, team xA 0.79 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1253, "goal_rate": 0.1881, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4716, "total_shots": 1.0761, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "key_pass": 0.3405, "rating": 6.5697, "minutes": 25.6, "total_pass": 4.5531, "accurate_pass": 2.5647, "duels_won": 2.3455, "total_long_balls": 0.1281, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1023, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5126, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.979, "crosses_total": 0.4025, "crosses_accurate": 0.1539, "touches": 11.5237, "possession_lost": 4.7368, "dispossessed": 0.4786, "duels_lost": 3.6232, "aerial_lost": 1.039, "total_contest": 0.3019, "won_contest": 0.0918, "ball_recovery": 0.6948, "challenges_lost": 0.093, "fouls": 1.2138, "fouls_drawn": 0.9622, "assist_rate": 0.176, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1384, "tackles_won": 0.0097, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.0673, "blocks": 0.0303, "big_chances_created": 0.1775, "big_chances_missed": 0.4309, "xgot": 0.2177, "offsides": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 1.9492, "total_progression": 4.4121, "progressive_carries": 0.0258, "shots_off_target": 0.6045, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.6, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.457, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9437, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.22, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1283, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7107, "team_expected_assists": 0.793, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0813, "xa_scale": 1.1158, "opponent_lambda": 1.764, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.573 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2023, "after": 0.1253 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0258, "after": 0.0165 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1253, "goal_rate": 0.1881, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4716, "total_shots": 1.0761, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "key_pass": 0.3405, "rating": 6.5697, "minutes": 25.6, "total_pass": 4.5531, "accurate_pass": 2.5647, "duels_won": 2.3455, "total_long_balls": 0.1281, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1023, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5126, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.979, "crosses_total": 0.4025, "crosses_accurate": 0.1539, "touches": 11.5237, "possession_lost": 4.7368, "dispossessed": 0.4786, "duels_lost": 3.6232, "aerial_lost": 1.039, "total_contest": 0.3019, "won_contest": 0.0918, "ball_recovery": 0.6948, "challenges_lost": 0.093, "fouls": 1.2138, "fouls_drawn": 0.9622, "assist_rate": 0.176, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1384, "tackles_won": 0.0097, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.0673, "blocks": 0.0303, "big_chances_created": 0.1775, "big_chances_missed": 0.4309, "xgot": 0.2177, "offsides": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 1.9492, "total_progression": 4.4121, "progressive_carries": 0.0258, "shots_off_target": 0.6045, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.6, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.457, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9437, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3474, "fifa_rank": 2418.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1253, "goal_rate": 0.1881, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4716, "total_shots": 1.0761, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "key_pass": 0.3405, "rating": 6.5697, "minutes": 25.6, "total_pass": 4.5531, "accurate_pass": 2.5647, "duels_won": 2.3455, "total_long_balls": 0.1281, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1023, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5126, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.979, "crosses_total": 0.4025, "crosses_accurate": 0.1539, "touches": 11.5237, "possession_lost": 4.7368, "dispossessed": 0.4786, "duels_lost": 3.6232, "aerial_lost": 1.039, "total_contest": 0.3019, "won_contest": 0.0918, "ball_recovery": 0.6948, "challenges_lost": 0.093, "fouls": 1.2138, "fouls_drawn": 0.9622, "assist_rate": 0.176, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1384, "tackles_won": 0.0097, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.0673, "blocks": 0.0303, "big_chances_created": 0.1775, "big_chances_missed": 0.4309, "xgot": 0.2177, "offsides": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 1.9492, "total_progression": 4.4121, "progressive_carries": 0.0258, "shots_off_target": 0.6045, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.6, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.457, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1125, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9437, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1125, "goal_rate": 0.1881, "scorer_weight": 0.1182, "squad_weight_total": 1.2934, "weight_share": 0.0914, "finishing_factor": 0.9437, "appearance_weight": 0.573, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roger Brugué", "weight": 0.32, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.32, "runner_up": "Iván Romero", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2937 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1253, "goal_rate": 0.1881, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4716, "total_shots": 1.0761, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "key_pass": 0.3405, "rating": 6.5697, "minutes": 25.6, "total_pass": 4.5531, "accurate_pass": 2.5647, "duels_won": 2.3455, "total_long_balls": 0.1281, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1023, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5126, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.979, "crosses_total": 0.4025, "crosses_accurate": 0.1539, "touches": 11.5237, "possession_lost": 4.7368, "dispossessed": 0.4786, "duels_lost": 3.6232, "aerial_lost": 1.039, "total_contest": 0.3019, "won_contest": 0.0918, "ball_recovery": 0.6948, "challenges_lost": 0.093, "fouls": 1.2138, "fouls_drawn": 0.9622, "assist_rate": 0.176, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1384, "tackles_won": 0.0097, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.0673, "blocks": 0.0303, "big_chances_created": 0.1775, "big_chances_missed": 0.4309, "xgot": 0.2177, "offsides": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 1.9492, "total_progression": 4.4121, "progressive_carries": 0.0258, "shots_off_target": 0.6045, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.6, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.457, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1125, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0163, "finishing_factor": 0.9437, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0163, "assist_rate": 0.176, "provider_weight": 0.0206, "squad_weight_total": 0.798, "weight_share": 0.0258, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.573, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jeremy Toljan", "weight": 0.1341, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1341, "runner_up": "Enzo Bardeli", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1232, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roger Brugué" ] } ] } } ] }, "Petar Ratkov": { "player_id": 1101942, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 187, "market_value": 8400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0516, "goal_rate": 0.0845, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5925, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 2.8311, "dispossessed": 0.3303, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 3, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.457, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0493, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0098, "finishing_factor": 1.0067, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421096.0, "match_date": "2026-10-31", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.7, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0126, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421086.0, "match_date": 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0836, "goal_rate": 0.0845, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2756, "total_shots": 0.7537, "expected_assists": 0.0156, "key_pass": 0.2619, "rating": 6.5925, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 6.386, "accurate_pass": 6.386, "duels_won": 1.346, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4392, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.4368, "possession_lost": 2.8311, "dispossessed": 0.3303, "duels_lost": 1.2043, "aerial_lost": 0.3303, "total_contest": 0.4722, "won_contest": 0.4722, "ball_recovery": 0.8737, "challenges_lost": 0.3303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4014, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4722, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7473, "total_progression": 2.7731, "progressive_carries": 0.9445, "shots_off_target": 0.4781, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.457, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.1283, xG scale 1.0813, xA scale 1.1158, team xA 0.79 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0516, "goal_rate": 0.0845, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2756, "total_shots": 0.7537, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "key_pass": 0.2619, "rating": 6.5925, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 6.386, "accurate_pass": 6.386, "duels_won": 1.346, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4392, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.4368, "possession_lost": 2.8311, "dispossessed": 0.3303, "duels_lost": 1.2043, "aerial_lost": 0.3303, "total_contest": 0.4722, "won_contest": 0.4722, "ball_recovery": 0.8737, "challenges_lost": 0.3303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4014, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4722, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7473, "total_progression": 2.7731, "progressive_carries": 0.9445, "shots_off_target": 0.4781, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.457, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0067, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.22, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1283, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7107, "team_expected_assists": 0.793, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0813, "xa_scale": 1.1158, "opponent_lambda": 1.764, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.571 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0836, "after": 0.0516 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0156, "after": 0.0099 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 68.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0516, "goal_rate": 0.0845, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2756, "total_shots": 0.7537, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "key_pass": 0.2619, "rating": 6.5925, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 6.386, "accurate_pass": 6.386, "duels_won": 1.346, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4392, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.4368, "possession_lost": 2.8311, "dispossessed": 0.3303, "duels_lost": 1.2043, "aerial_lost": 0.3303, "total_contest": 0.4722, "won_contest": 0.4722, "ball_recovery": 0.8737, "challenges_lost": 0.3303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4014, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4722, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7473, "total_progression": 2.7731, "progressive_carries": 0.9445, "shots_off_target": 0.4781, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.457, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0067, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5795, "fifa_rank": 7956.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 68.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0516, "goal_rate": 0.0845, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2756, "total_shots": 0.7537, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "key_pass": 0.2619, "rating": 6.5925, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 6.386, "accurate_pass": 6.386, "duels_won": 1.346, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4392, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.4368, "possession_lost": 2.8311, "dispossessed": 0.3303, "duels_lost": 1.2043, "aerial_lost": 0.3303, "total_contest": 0.4722, "won_contest": 0.4722, "ball_recovery": 0.8737, "challenges_lost": 0.3303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4014, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4722, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7473, "total_progression": 2.7731, "progressive_carries": 0.9445, "shots_off_target": 0.4781, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.457, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0493, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0067, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0493, "goal_rate": 0.0845, "scorer_weight": 0.0519, "squad_weight_total": 1.2934, "weight_share": 0.0402, "finishing_factor": 1.0067, "appearance_weight": 0.571, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roger Brugué", "weight": 0.32, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.32, "runner_up": "Iván Romero", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2937 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0516, "goal_rate": 0.0845, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2756, "total_shots": 0.7537, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "key_pass": 0.2619, "rating": 6.5925, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 6.386, "accurate_pass": 6.386, "duels_won": 1.346, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4392, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.4368, "possession_lost": 2.8311, "dispossessed": 0.3303, "duels_lost": 1.2043, "aerial_lost": 0.3303, "total_contest": 0.4722, "won_contest": 0.4722, "ball_recovery": 0.8737, "challenges_lost": 0.3303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4014, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4722, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7473, "total_progression": 2.7731, "progressive_carries": 0.9445, "shots_off_target": 0.4781, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.457, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0493, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0098, "finishing_factor": 1.0067, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0098, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0079, "squad_weight_total": 0.798, "weight_share": 0.0099, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.571, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jeremy Toljan", "weight": 0.1341, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1341, "runner_up": "Enzo Bardeli", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1232, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roger Brugué" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Etta Eyong": { "player_id": 1393673, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 181, "market_value": 9400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1253, "goal_rate": 0.1881, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5697, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, 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1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421096.0, "match_date": "2026-10-31", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6667, "expected_assists": 0.0071, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421086.0, "match_date": "2026-10-25", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "away", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0004, quality 0.515)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1482, "goals": 0.1378, "goal_rate": 0.1378, "shots_on_target": 0.3454, "total_shots": 0.7881, "expected_assists": 0.0189, "key_pass": 0.2494, "rating": 6.5697, "minutes": 18.75, "total_pass": 3.3347, "accurate_pass": 1.8784, "duels_won": 1.7178, "total_long_balls": 0.0938, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0749, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.5726, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4494, "crosses_total": 0.2948, "crosses_accurate": 0.1127, "touches": 8.4399, "possession_lost": 3.4692, "dispossessed": 0.4786, "duels_lost": 2.6536, "aerial_lost": 1.039, "total_contest": 0.2211, "won_contest": 0.0672, "ball_recovery": 0.5089, "challenges_lost": 0.093, "fouls": 0.889, "fouls_drawn": 0.7047, "assists": 0.1289, "assist_rate": 0.1289, "interceptions": 0.1014, "tackles_won": 0.0071, "tackles": 0.1438, "clearances": 0.0493, "blocks": 0.0222, "big_chances_created": 0.13, "big_chances_missed": 0.3156, "xgot": 0.2573, "offsides": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 1.4276, "total_progression": 3.2314, "progressive_carries": 0.0189, "shots_off_target": 0.4427 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9400000, "quality_factor": 0.5154, "boost_factor": 1.0004, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.8 to 25.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2023, "goals": 0.1881, "goal_rate": 0.1881, "shots_on_target": 0.4716, "total_shots": 1.0761, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "key_pass": 0.3405, "rating": 6.5697, "minutes": 25.6, "total_pass": 4.5531, "accurate_pass": 2.5647, "duels_won": 2.3455, "total_long_balls": 0.1281, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1023, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5126, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.979, "crosses_total": 0.4025, "crosses_accurate": 0.1539, "touches": 11.5237, "possession_lost": 4.7368, "dispossessed": 0.4786, "duels_lost": 3.6232, "aerial_lost": 1.039, "total_contest": 0.3019, "won_contest": 0.0918, "ball_recovery": 0.6948, "challenges_lost": 0.093, "fouls": 1.2138, "fouls_drawn": 0.9622, "assists": 0.176, "assist_rate": 0.176, "interceptions": 0.1384, "tackles_won": 0.0097, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.0673, "blocks": 0.0303, "big_chances_created": 0.1775, "big_chances_missed": 0.4309, "xgot": 0.3513, "offsides": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 1.9492, "total_progression": 4.4121, "progressive_carries": 0.0258, "shots_off_target": 0.6045, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.6 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.6, "projection_minutes": 18.75, "minutes_scale": 1.3654, "appearance_probability": 0.573 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2023, "goals": 0.1881, "goal_rate": 0.1881, "shots_on_target": 0.4716, "total_shots": 1.0761, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "key_pass": 0.3405, "rating": 6.5697, "minutes": 25.6, "total_pass": 4.5531, "accurate_pass": 2.5647, "duels_won": 2.3455, "total_long_balls": 0.1281, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1023, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5126, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.979, "crosses_total": 0.4025, "crosses_accurate": 0.1539, "touches": 11.5237, "possession_lost": 4.7368, "dispossessed": 0.4786, "duels_lost": 3.6232, "aerial_lost": 1.039, "total_contest": 0.3019, "won_contest": 0.0918, "ball_recovery": 0.6948, "challenges_lost": 0.093, "fouls": 1.2138, "fouls_drawn": 0.9622, "assists": 0.176, "assist_rate": 0.176, "interceptions": 0.1384, "tackles_won": 0.0097, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.0673, "blocks": 0.0303, "big_chances_created": 0.1775, "big_chances_missed": 0.4309, "xgot": 0.3513, "offsides": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 1.9492, "total_progression": 4.4121, "progressive_carries": 0.0258, "shots_off_target": 0.6045, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.6 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2023, "goal_rate": 0.1881, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4716, "total_shots": 1.0761, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "key_pass": 0.3405, "rating": 6.5697, "minutes": 25.6, "total_pass": 4.5531, "accurate_pass": 2.5647, "duels_won": 2.3455, "total_long_balls": 0.1281, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1023, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5126, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.979, "crosses_total": 0.4025, "crosses_accurate": 0.1539, "touches": 11.5237, "possession_lost": 4.7368, "dispossessed": 0.4786, "duels_lost": 3.6232, "aerial_lost": 1.039, "total_contest": 0.3019, "won_contest": 0.0918, "ball_recovery": 0.6948, "challenges_lost": 0.093, "fouls": 1.2138, "fouls_drawn": 0.9622, "assist_rate": 0.176, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1384, "tackles_won": 0.0097, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.0673, "blocks": 0.0303, "big_chances_created": 0.1775, "big_chances_missed": 0.4309, "xgot": 0.3513, "offsides": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 1.9492, "total_progression": 4.4121, "progressive_carries": 0.0258, "shots_off_target": 0.6045, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.6, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.457, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.1283, xG scale 1.0813, xA scale 1.1158, team xA 0.79 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1253, "goal_rate": 0.1881, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4716, "total_shots": 1.0761, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "key_pass": 0.3405, "rating": 6.5697, "minutes": 25.6, "total_pass": 4.5531, "accurate_pass": 2.5647, "duels_won": 2.3455, "total_long_balls": 0.1281, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1023, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5126, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.979, "crosses_total": 0.4025, "crosses_accurate": 0.1539, "touches": 11.5237, "possession_lost": 4.7368, "dispossessed": 0.4786, "duels_lost": 3.6232, "aerial_lost": 1.039, "total_contest": 0.3019, "won_contest": 0.0918, "ball_recovery": 0.6948, "challenges_lost": 0.093, "fouls": 1.2138, "fouls_drawn": 0.9622, "assist_rate": 0.176, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1384, "tackles_won": 0.0097, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.0673, "blocks": 0.0303, "big_chances_created": 0.1775, "big_chances_missed": 0.4309, "xgot": 0.2177, "offsides": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 1.9492, "total_progression": 4.4121, "progressive_carries": 0.0258, "shots_off_target": 0.6045, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.6, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.457, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9437, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.22, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1283, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7107, "team_expected_assists": 0.793, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0813, "xa_scale": 1.1158, "opponent_lambda": 1.764, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.573 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2023, "after": 0.1253 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0258, "after": 0.0165 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1253, "goal_rate": 0.1881, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4716, "total_shots": 1.0761, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "key_pass": 0.3405, "rating": 6.5697, "minutes": 25.6, "total_pass": 4.5531, "accurate_pass": 2.5647, "duels_won": 2.3455, "total_long_balls": 0.1281, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1023, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5126, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.979, "crosses_total": 0.4025, "crosses_accurate": 0.1539, "touches": 11.5237, "possession_lost": 4.7368, "dispossessed": 0.4786, "duels_lost": 3.6232, "aerial_lost": 1.039, "total_contest": 0.3019, "won_contest": 0.0918, "ball_recovery": 0.6948, "challenges_lost": 0.093, "fouls": 1.2138, "fouls_drawn": 0.9622, "assist_rate": 0.176, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1384, "tackles_won": 0.0097, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.0673, "blocks": 0.0303, "big_chances_created": 0.1775, "big_chances_missed": 0.4309, "xgot": 0.2177, "offsides": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 1.9492, "total_progression": 4.4121, "progressive_carries": 0.0258, "shots_off_target": 0.6045, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.6, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.457, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9437, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3474, "fifa_rank": 2418.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1253, "goal_rate": 0.1881, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4716, "total_shots": 1.0761, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "key_pass": 0.3405, "rating": 6.5697, "minutes": 25.6, "total_pass": 4.5531, "accurate_pass": 2.5647, "duels_won": 2.3455, "total_long_balls": 0.1281, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1023, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5126, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.979, "crosses_total": 0.4025, "crosses_accurate": 0.1539, "touches": 11.5237, "possession_lost": 4.7368, "dispossessed": 0.4786, "duels_lost": 3.6232, "aerial_lost": 1.039, "total_contest": 0.3019, "won_contest": 0.0918, "ball_recovery": 0.6948, "challenges_lost": 0.093, "fouls": 1.2138, "fouls_drawn": 0.9622, "assist_rate": 0.176, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1384, "tackles_won": 0.0097, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.0673, "blocks": 0.0303, "big_chances_created": 0.1775, "big_chances_missed": 0.4309, "xgot": 0.2177, "offsides": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 1.9492, "total_progression": 4.4121, "progressive_carries": 0.0258, "shots_off_target": 0.6045, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.6, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.457, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1125, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9437, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1125, "goal_rate": 0.1881, "scorer_weight": 0.1182, "squad_weight_total": 1.2934, "weight_share": 0.0914, "finishing_factor": 0.9437, "appearance_weight": 0.573, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roger Brugué", "weight": 0.32, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.32, "runner_up": "Iván Romero", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2937 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1253, "goal_rate": 0.1881, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4716, "total_shots": 1.0761, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "key_pass": 0.3405, "rating": 6.5697, "minutes": 25.6, "total_pass": 4.5531, "accurate_pass": 2.5647, "duels_won": 2.3455, "total_long_balls": 0.1281, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1023, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5126, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.979, "crosses_total": 0.4025, "crosses_accurate": 0.1539, "touches": 11.5237, "possession_lost": 4.7368, "dispossessed": 0.4786, "duels_lost": 3.6232, "aerial_lost": 1.039, "total_contest": 0.3019, "won_contest": 0.0918, "ball_recovery": 0.6948, "challenges_lost": 0.093, "fouls": 1.2138, "fouls_drawn": 0.9622, "assist_rate": 0.176, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1384, "tackles_won": 0.0097, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.0673, "blocks": 0.0303, "big_chances_created": 0.1775, "big_chances_missed": 0.4309, "xgot": 0.2177, "offsides": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 1.9492, "total_progression": 4.4121, "progressive_carries": 0.0258, "shots_off_target": 0.6045, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.6, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.457, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1125, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0163, "finishing_factor": 0.9437, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0163, "assist_rate": 0.176, "provider_weight": 0.0206, "squad_weight_total": 0.798, "weight_share": 0.0258, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.573, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jeremy Toljan", "weight": 0.1341, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1341, "runner_up": "Enzo Bardeli", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1232, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roger Brugué" ] } ] } } ] }, "Petar Ratkov": { "player_id": 1101942, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 187, "market_value": 8400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0516, "goal_rate": 0.0845, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5925, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9998, quality 0.503)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0688, "goals": 0.0695, "goal_rate": 0.0695, "shots_on_target": 0.2268, "total_shots": 0.6203, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "key_pass": 0.2155, "rating": 6.5925, "minutes": 21.03, "total_pass": 5.2555, "accurate_pass": 5.2555, "duels_won": 1.1077, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6533, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6533, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.4121, "possession_lost": 2.3299, "dispossessed": 0.3303, "duels_lost": 0.9911, "aerial_lost": 0.3303, "total_contest": 0.3886, "won_contest": 0.3886, "ball_recovery": 0.719, "challenges_lost": 0.3303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3303, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3886, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.438, "total_progression": 2.2822, "progressive_carries": 0.7773, "shots_off_target": 0.3935 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8400000, "quality_factor": 0.5035, "boost_factor": 0.9998, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.0 to 25.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0836, "goals": 0.0845, "goal_rate": 0.0845, "shots_on_target": 0.2756, "total_shots": 0.7537, "expected_assists": 0.0156, "key_pass": 0.2619, "rating": 6.5925, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 6.386, "accurate_pass": 6.386, "duels_won": 1.346, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4392, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.4368, "possession_lost": 2.8311, "dispossessed": 0.3303, "duels_lost": 1.2043, "aerial_lost": 0.3303, "total_contest": 0.4722, "won_contest": 0.4722, "ball_recovery": 0.8737, "challenges_lost": 0.3303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4014, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4722, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7473, "total_progression": 2.7731, "progressive_carries": 0.9445, "shots_off_target": 0.4781, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.55, "projection_minutes": 21.03, "minutes_scale": 1.2151, "appearance_probability": 0.571 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0836, "goals": 0.0845, "goal_rate": 0.0845, "shots_on_target": 0.2756, "total_shots": 0.7537, "expected_assists": 0.0156, "key_pass": 0.2619, "rating": 6.5925, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 6.386, "accurate_pass": 6.386, "duels_won": 1.346, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4392, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.4368, "possession_lost": 2.8311, "dispossessed": 0.3303, "duels_lost": 1.2043, "aerial_lost": 0.3303, "total_contest": 0.4722, "won_contest": 0.4722, "ball_recovery": 0.8737, "challenges_lost": 0.3303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4014, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4722, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7473, "total_progression": 2.7731, "progressive_carries": 0.9445, "shots_off_target": 0.4781, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0836, "goal_rate": 0.0845, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2756, "total_shots": 0.7537, "expected_assists": 0.0156, "key_pass": 0.2619, "rating": 6.5925, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 6.386, "accurate_pass": 6.386, "duels_won": 1.346, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4392, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.4368, "possession_lost": 2.8311, "dispossessed": 0.3303, "duels_lost": 1.2043, "aerial_lost": 0.3303, "total_contest": 0.4722, "won_contest": 0.4722, "ball_recovery": 0.8737, "challenges_lost": 0.3303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4014, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4722, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7473, "total_progression": 2.7731, "progressive_carries": 0.9445, "shots_off_target": 0.4781, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.457, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.1283, xG scale 1.0813, xA scale 1.1158, team xA 0.79 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0516, "goal_rate": 0.0845, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2756, "total_shots": 0.7537, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "key_pass": 0.2619, "rating": 6.5925, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 6.386, "accurate_pass": 6.386, "duels_won": 1.346, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4392, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.4368, "possession_lost": 2.8311, "dispossessed": 0.3303, "duels_lost": 1.2043, "aerial_lost": 0.3303, "total_contest": 0.4722, "won_contest": 0.4722, "ball_recovery": 0.8737, "challenges_lost": 0.3303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4014, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4722, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7473, "total_progression": 2.7731, "progressive_carries": 0.9445, "shots_off_target": 0.4781, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.457, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0067, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.22, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1283, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7107, "team_expected_assists": 0.793, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0813, "xa_scale": 1.1158, "opponent_lambda": 1.764, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.571 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0836, "after": 0.0516 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0156, "after": 0.0099 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 68.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0516, "goal_rate": 0.0845, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2756, "total_shots": 0.7537, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "key_pass": 0.2619, "rating": 6.5925, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 6.386, "accurate_pass": 6.386, "duels_won": 1.346, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4392, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.4368, "possession_lost": 2.8311, "dispossessed": 0.3303, "duels_lost": 1.2043, "aerial_lost": 0.3303, "total_contest": 0.4722, "won_contest": 0.4722, "ball_recovery": 0.8737, "challenges_lost": 0.3303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4014, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4722, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7473, "total_progression": 2.7731, "progressive_carries": 0.9445, "shots_off_target": 0.4781, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.457, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0067, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5795, "fifa_rank": 7956.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 68.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0516, "goal_rate": 0.0845, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2756, "total_shots": 0.7537, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "key_pass": 0.2619, "rating": 6.5925, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 6.386, "accurate_pass": 6.386, "duels_won": 1.346, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4392, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.4368, "possession_lost": 2.8311, "dispossessed": 0.3303, "duels_lost": 1.2043, "aerial_lost": 0.3303, "total_contest": 0.4722, "won_contest": 0.4722, "ball_recovery": 0.8737, "challenges_lost": 0.3303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4014, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4722, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7473, "total_progression": 2.7731, "progressive_carries": 0.9445, "shots_off_target": 0.4781, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.457, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0493, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0067, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0493, "goal_rate": 0.0845, "scorer_weight": 0.0519, "squad_weight_total": 1.2934, "weight_share": 0.0402, "finishing_factor": 1.0067, "appearance_weight": 0.571, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roger Brugué", "weight": 0.32, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.32, "runner_up": "Iván Romero", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2937 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0516, "goal_rate": 0.0845, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2756, "total_shots": 0.7537, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "key_pass": 0.2619, "rating": 6.5925, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 6.386, "accurate_pass": 6.386, "duels_won": 1.346, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4392, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.4368, "possession_lost": 2.8311, "dispossessed": 0.3303, "duels_lost": 1.2043, "aerial_lost": 0.3303, "total_contest": 0.4722, "won_contest": 0.4722, "ball_recovery": 0.8737, 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0.0098, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0079, "squad_weight_total": 0.798, "weight_share": 0.0099, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.571, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jeremy Toljan", "weight": 0.1341, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1341, "runner_up": "Enzo Bardeli", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1232, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roger Brugué" ] } ] } } ] }, "Hugo Sotelo": { "player_id": 1120669, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 180, "market_value": 4800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "assist_rate": 0.0596, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0099, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7306, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, 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} ], "others_margin": 0.003305 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.460)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3586, "expected_assists": 0.0314, "assists": 0.0473, "assist_rate": 0.0473, "expected_goals": 0.0144, "goals": 0.0237, "goal_rate": 0.0237, "shots_on_target": 0.0634, "total_shots": 0.1789, "rating": 6.7306, "minutes": 17.5, "total_pass": 11.9689, "accurate_pass": 10.0637, "duels_won": 1.0409, "total_long_balls": 1.22, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2812, "total_own_half_passes": 5.1783, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.5401, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7905, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5236, "crosses_total": 0.0831, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7291, "possession_lost": 2.5957, "dispossessed": 0.3225, "duels_lost": 1.4276, "aerial_won": 0.1149, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.8157, "tackles_won": 0.2703, "tackles": 0.6556, "clearances": 0.4, "total_contest": 0.0978, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3333, "fouls": 0.3718, "fouls_drawn": 0.2703, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.9276, "total_progression": 0.4997, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1155 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4800000, "quality_factor": 0.4597, "boost_factor": 0.9977, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 24, "history_shrink": 0.1724, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.5 to 22.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.50)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4521, "expected_assists": 0.0396, "assists": 0.0596, "assist_rate": 0.0596, "expected_goals": 0.0182, "goals": 0.0299, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "shots_on_target": 0.0799, "total_shots": 0.2255, "rating": 6.7306, "minutes": 22.06, "total_pass": 15.088, "accurate_pass": 12.6863, "duels_won": 1.3122, "total_long_balls": 1.5379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3545, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5278, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.7232, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5601, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.963, "crosses_total": 0.1048, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.8281, "possession_lost": 3.2721, "dispossessed": 0.3225, "duels_lost": 1.7996, "aerial_won": 0.1448, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 1.0283, "tackles_won": 0.3407, "tackles": 0.8264, "clearances": 0.5042, "total_contest": 0.1233, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3333, "fouls": 0.4687, "fouls_drawn": 0.3407, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4299, "total_progression": 0.6299, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1456, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.06 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.06, "projection_minutes": 17.5, "minutes_scale": 1.2606, "appearance_probability": 0.503 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4521, "expected_assists": 0.0396, "assists": 0.0596, "assist_rate": 0.0596, "expected_goals": 0.0182, "goals": 0.0299, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "shots_on_target": 0.0799, "total_shots": 0.2255, "rating": 6.7306, "minutes": 22.06, "total_pass": 15.088, "accurate_pass": 12.6863, "duels_won": 1.3122, "total_long_balls": 1.5379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3545, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5278, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.7232, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5601, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.963, "crosses_total": 0.1048, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.8281, "possession_lost": 3.2721, "dispossessed": 0.3225, "duels_lost": 1.7996, "aerial_won": 0.1448, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 1.0283, "tackles_won": 0.3407, "tackles": 0.8264, "clearances": 0.5042, "total_contest": 0.1233, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3333, "fouls": 0.4687, "fouls_drawn": 0.3407, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4299, "total_progression": 0.6299, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1456, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.06 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4521, "expected_assists": 0.0396, "assist_rate": 0.0596, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0182, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0799, "total_shots": 0.2255, "rating": 6.7306, "minutes": 22.06, "total_pass": 15.088, "accurate_pass": 12.6863, "duels_won": 1.3122, "total_long_balls": 1.5379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3545, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5278, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.7232, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5601, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.963, "crosses_total": 0.1048, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.8281, "possession_lost": 3.2721, "dispossessed": 0.3225, "duels_lost": 1.7996, "aerial_won": 0.1448, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 1.0283, "tackles_won": 0.3407, "tackles": 0.8264, "clearances": 0.5042, "total_contest": 0.1233, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3333, "fouls": 0.4687, "fouls_drawn": 0.3407, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4299, "total_progression": 0.6299, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1456, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.06, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.457, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.1283, xG scale 1.0813, xA scale 1.1158, team xA 0.79 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4521, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "assist_rate": 0.0596, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0099, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0799, "total_shots": 0.2255, "rating": 6.7306, "minutes": 22.06, "total_pass": 15.088, "accurate_pass": 12.6863, "duels_won": 1.3122, "total_long_balls": 1.5379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3545, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5278, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.7232, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5601, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.963, "crosses_total": 0.1048, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.8281, "possession_lost": 3.2721, "dispossessed": 0.3225, "duels_lost": 1.7996, "aerial_won": 0.1448, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 1.0283, "tackles_won": 0.3407, "tackles": 0.8264, "clearances": 0.5042, "total_contest": 0.1233, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3333, "fouls": 0.4687, "fouls_drawn": 0.3407, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4299, "total_progression": 0.6299, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1456, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.06, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.457, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1716, "creation_factor": 1.2232 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.22, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1283, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7107, "team_expected_assists": 0.793, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0813, "xa_scale": 1.1158, "opponent_lambda": 1.764, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.503 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0182, "after": 0.0099 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0396, "after": 0.0222 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4521, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "assist_rate": 0.0596, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0099, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0799, "total_shots": 0.2255, "rating": 6.7306, "minutes": 22.06, "total_pass": 15.088, "accurate_pass": 12.6863, "duels_won": 1.3122, "total_long_balls": 1.5379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3545, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5278, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.7232, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5601, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.963, "crosses_total": 0.1048, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.8281, "possession_lost": 3.2721, "dispossessed": 0.3225, "duels_lost": 1.7996, "aerial_won": 0.1448, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 1.0283, "tackles_won": 0.3407, "tackles": 0.8264, "clearances": 0.5042, "total_contest": 0.1233, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3333, "fouls": 0.4687, "fouls_drawn": 0.3407, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4299, "total_progression": 0.6299, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1456, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.06, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.457, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1716, "creation_factor": 1.2232, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3677, "fifa_rank": 2905.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4521, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "assist_rate": 0.0596, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0099, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0799, "total_shots": 0.2255, "rating": 6.7306, "minutes": 22.06, "total_pass": 15.088, "accurate_pass": 12.6863, "duels_won": 1.3122, "total_long_balls": 1.5379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3545, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5278, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.7232, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5601, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.963, "crosses_total": 0.1048, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.8281, "possession_lost": 3.2721, "dispossessed": 0.3225, "duels_lost": 1.7996, "aerial_won": 0.1448, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 1.0283, "tackles_won": 0.3407, "tackles": 0.8264, "clearances": 0.5042, "total_contest": 0.1233, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3333, "fouls": 0.4687, "fouls_drawn": 0.3407, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4299, "total_progression": 0.6299, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1456, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.06, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.457, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0098, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1716, "creation_factor": 1.2232, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0098, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "scorer_weight": 0.0116, "squad_weight_total": 1.2934, "weight_share": 0.009, "finishing_factor": 1.1716, "appearance_weight": 0.503, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roger Brugué", "weight": 0.32, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.32, "runner_up": "Iván Romero", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2937 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4521, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "assist_rate": 0.0596, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0099, "goal_rate": 0.0299, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0799, "total_shots": 0.2255, "rating": 6.7306, "minutes": 22.06, "total_pass": 15.088, "accurate_pass": 12.6863, "duels_won": 1.3122, "total_long_balls": 1.5379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3545, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5278, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.7232, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5601, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.963, "crosses_total": 0.1048, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 19.8281, "possession_lost": 3.2721, "dispossessed": 0.3225, "duels_lost": 1.7996, "aerial_won": 0.1448, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 1.0283, "tackles_won": 0.3407, "tackles": 0.8264, "clearances": 0.5042, "total_contest": 0.1233, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3333, "fouls": 0.4687, "fouls_drawn": 0.3407, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4299, "total_progression": 0.6299, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1456, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.503, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.06, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.457, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0098, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0217, "finishing_factor": 1.1716, "creation_factor": 1.2232, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0217, "assist_rate": 0.0596, "provider_weight": 0.0272, "squad_weight_total": 0.798, "weight_share": 0.034, "creation_factor": 1.2232, "appearance_weight": 0.503, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jeremy Toljan", "weight": 0.1341, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1341, "runner_up": "Enzo Bardeli", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1232, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roger Brugué" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.22, "expected_assists": 0.79, "total_shots": 11, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 369, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 17, "avg_rating": 6.8, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.2, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Aleix Febas", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 5200000, "attacker_height": 168, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.465, "defenders": [ "Adrián de la Fuente" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.465, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.36, "xg_contribution": 0.0392, "xg_multiplier": 0.9412, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adrián de la Fuente", "role": "RB", "market_value": 5200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.64 } ], "duel_analysis": "Aleix Febas (LWB) is evenly matched against Adrián de la Fuente in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.039 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Miguel Román", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 14400000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.573, "defenders": [ "Daniel Requena" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.457, "xg_contribution": 0.0624, "xg_multiplier": 1.0539, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Daniel Requena", "role": "CM", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.543 } ], "duel_analysis": "Miguel Román (CM) is evenly matched against Daniel Requena in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.05 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.062 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ilaix Moriba", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 13700000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.565, "defenders": [ "Daniel Requena" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.473, "xg_contribution": 0.04, "xg_multiplier": 1.0777, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Daniel Requena", "role": "CM", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.527 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ilaix Moriba (CM) is slightly favored against Daniel Requena in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.08 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.040 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Javier Rueda", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 6200000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.477, "defenders": [ "Manuel Sánchez" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.479, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.386, "xg_contribution": 0.0849, "xg_multiplier": 0.9801, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Manuel Sánchez", "role": "LB", "market_value": 6400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.614 } ], "duel_analysis": "Javier Rueda (RWB) is evenly matched against Manuel Sánchez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.085 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Hugo Álvarez", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 7800000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.496, "defenders": [ "Aïssa Mandi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.436, "xg_contribution": 0.1397, "xg_multiplier": 0.9801, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aïssa Mandi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.564 } ], "duel_analysis": "Hugo Álvarez (SS) is evenly matched against Aïssa Mandi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.140 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ferrán Jutglà", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 10700000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.531, "defenders": [ "Aïssa Mandi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.448, "xg_contribution": 0.2787, "xg_multiplier": 0.997, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aïssa Mandi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.552 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ferrán Jutglà (SS) is evenly matched against Aïssa Mandi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.00 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.279 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Hugo González", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3100000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.439, "defenders": [ "Aïssa Mandi", "Jeremy Toljan" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.189, "xg_contribution": 0.2207, "xg_multiplier": 0.9832, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aïssa Mandi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.811 }, { "player": "Jeremy Toljan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.811 } ], "duel_analysis": "Hugo González (ST) is evenly matched against Aïssa Mandi and Jeremy Toljan in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.221 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 2700000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Yoel Lago" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.487, "duel_zone": "LM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.349, "xg_contribution": 0.0777, "xg_multiplier": 0.896, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Yoel Lago", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.651 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jon Ander Olasagasti (LM) faces tough defensive resistance against Yoel Lago in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.90 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.078 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Daniel Requena", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1500000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Miguel Román" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.573, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.383, "xg_contribution": 0.0764, "xg_multiplier": 0.9461, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Miguel Román", "role": "CM", "market_value": 14400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.617 } ], "duel_analysis": "Daniel Requena (CM) is evenly matched against Miguel Román in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.95 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.076 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Oriol Rey", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1700000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Miguel Román" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.573, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.339, "xg_contribution": 0.0353, "xg_multiplier": 0.8815, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Miguel Román", "role": "CM", "market_value": 14400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.661 } ], "duel_analysis": "Oriol Rey (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Miguel Román in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.88 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.035 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Enzo Bardeli", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 5800000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.472, "defenders": [ "Yoel Lago" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.487, "duel_zone": "RM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.352, "xg_contribution": 0.0745, "xg_multiplier": 0.9006, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Yoel Lago", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.648 } ], "duel_analysis": "Enzo Bardeli (RM) faces tough defensive resistance against Yoel Lago in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.90 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.074 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Roger Brugué", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2800000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Yoel Lago", "Álvaro Núñez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.468, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2865, "xg_multiplier": 0.9273, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Yoel Lago", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Álvaro Núñez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Roger Brugué (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Yoel Lago and Álvaro Núñez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.93 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.287 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Iván Romero", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7400000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.491, "defenders": [ "Yoel Lago", "Álvaro Núñez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.468, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2363, "xg_multiplier": 0.9571, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Yoel Lago", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Álvaro Núñez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iván Romero (ST) is evenly matched against Yoel Lago and Álvaro Núñez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.236 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.545, "away_midfield_power": 0.471, "home_creative_power": 0.442, "away_creative_power": 0.425, "home_defensive_power": 0.442, "away_defensive_power": 0.425, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.536, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Ilaix Moriba", "Miguel Román", "Aleix Febas", "Javier Rueda" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "Daniel Requena", "Enzo Bardeli", "Oriol Rey" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.8, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.2, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.5, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.2, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.1, "home_throughball_threat": 1.9, "away_throughball_threat": 1.9, "key_personal_duel": "Miguel Román vs Enzo Bardeli", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.009, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.991 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-3", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.1, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "3-4-3 creates structural superiority against 4-4-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition." }, "home_lambda": 1.764, "away_lambda": 1.22, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Aleix Febas": { "opponents": [ "Adrián de la Fuente", "Jon Ander Olasagasti" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Miguel Román": { "opponents": [ "Daniel Requena", "Oriol Rey" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ilaix Moriba": { "opponents": [ "Daniel Requena", "Oriol Rey" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Javier Rueda": { "opponents": [ "Manuel Sánchez", "Enzo Bardeli" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Hugo Álvarez": { "opponents": [ "Aïssa Mandi" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ferrán Jutglà": { "opponents": [ "Aïssa Mandi" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Hugo González": { "opponents": [ "Aïssa Mandi", "Jeremy Toljan" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Yoel Lago": { "opponents": [ "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "Enzo Bardeli", "Roger Brugué", "Iván Romero" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Álvaro Núñez": { "opponents": [ "Roger Brugué", "Iván Romero" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ionuț Radu": { "opponents": [ "Iván Romero", "Roger Brugué" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Javi Rodríguez": { "opponents": [ "Iván Romero" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Adrián de la Fuente": { "opponents": [ "Aleix Febas" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Daniel Requena": { "opponents": [ "Miguel Román", "Ilaix Moriba" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Manuel Sánchez": { "opponents": [ "Javier Rueda" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Aïssa Mandi": { "opponents": [ "Hugo Álvarez", "Ferrán Jutglà", "Hugo González" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jeremy Toljan": { "opponents": [ "Hugo González" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jon Ander Olasagasti": { "opponents": [ "Yoel Lago", "Aleix Febas" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Oriol Rey": { "opponents": [ "Miguel Román", "Ilaix Moriba" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Enzo Bardeli": { "opponents": [ "Yoel Lago", "Javier Rueda" ], "primary_zone": "RM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Roger Brugué": { "opponents": [ "Yoel Lago", "Álvaro Núñez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Iván Romero": { "opponents": [ "Yoel Lago", "Álvaro Núñez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Mathew Ryan": { "opponents": [ "Ferrán Jutglà", "Hugo Álvarez" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Miguel Román vs Enzo Bardeli will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.87, Away: 0.79. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.3418, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9772, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.005, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.021, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0054, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9954, "home_midfield_factor": 1.009, "away_midfield_factor": 0.991, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5086, "away_avg_quality": 0.4532, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0554, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.7607, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.6784, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.8015, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.149, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0819, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0477, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8656, "n_duels": 7, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9867 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.009, "result": 0.9956 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.1, "result": 1.0951 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.3418, "result": 1.4694 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9662, "result": 1.4198 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 1.4349 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0054, "result": 1.4426 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.005, "result": 1.4476 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.4476, "result": 1.4476, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.149, "factor": 1.0819, "pre": 1.4476, "result": 1.5663 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.5663 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1123, "result": 1.6783 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.3093, "result": 1.3662 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.3662, "result": 1.366, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 0.97, "result": 1.325 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 1.325, "result": 1.325, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.325 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.325 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.325, "result": 1.325, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 1.328, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 1.764 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.7867, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9275 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.991, "result": 0.9192 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9192 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9192 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9129, "result": 0.8391 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9772, "result": 0.82 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9954, "result": 0.8162 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.021, "result": 0.8372 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.8372, "result": 0.8372, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.149, "factor": 0.9523, "pre": 0.8372, "result": 0.7973 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.7973 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1974, "result": 0.9944 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.3086, "result": 0.838 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 0.838, "result": 0.838, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1, "result": 0.922 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 0.922, "result": 0.922, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 0.922 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 0.922 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 0.922, "result": 0.922, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 1.328, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 1.22 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1123, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1974, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Celta Vigo", "away_squad": "Levante UD", "home_goals_per90": 0.25, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "away_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "home_goals_against_per90": 0.25, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.309, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.309, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.325, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.922, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.3662, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.838, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 124, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.984, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.328, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.764, "final_away_lambda": 1.22 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 9, "opponent_position": 17, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9662, "attack_index": 0.847, "defense_concede_index": 1.08, "form_multiplier": 1.007, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.28, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.63, "team_ppg": 1.19, "opponent_ppg": 1.07 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 17, "opponent_position": 9, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9129, "attack_index": 0.942, "defense_concede_index": 0.847, "form_multiplier": 0.993, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.42, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.28, "team_ppg": 1.07, "opponent_ppg": 1.19 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Celta vs Levante. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-4-3 vs 4-4-2 (duel lambdas: Home 1.366, Away 0.838). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.764, Away 1.220 (most likely score 2-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 0, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Celta Vigo", "away_squad": "Levante UD", "home_goals_per90": 0.25, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "away_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "home_goals_against_per90": 0.25, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.309, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.309, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.764, "away_lambda": 1.22, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.366, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.838 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.328, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-11-03T14:37:15Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }