{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Liverpool", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261108", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1209, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0831, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.087, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": "Draw", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.256, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1209 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.087 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0852 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0831 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0814 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0631, "0-1": 0.087, "0-2": 0.0627, "0-3": 0.0297, "0-4": 0.0106, "0-5": 0.003, "0-6": 0.0007, "1-0": 0.0831, "1-1": 0.1209, "1-2": 0.0852, "1-3": 0.0404, "1-4": 0.0143, "1-5": 0.0041, "1-6": 0.001, "2-0": 0.0572, "2-1": 0.0814, "2-2": 0.0579, "2-3": 0.0274, "2-4": 0.0098, "2-5": 0.0028, "2-6": 0.0007, "3-0": 0.0259, "3-1": 0.0369, "3-2": 0.0262, "3-3": 0.0124, "3-4": 0.0044, "3-5": 0.0013, "4-0": 0.0088, "4-1": 0.0125, "4-2": 0.0089, "4-3": 0.0042, "4-4": 0.0015, "5-0": 0.0024, "5-1": 0.0034, "5-2": 0.0024, "5-3": 0.0011, "6-0": 0.0005, "6-1": 0.0008, "6-2": 0.0005 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3577, "draw": 0.256, "away_win": 0.3863 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.526, "under_2_5_goals": 0.474, "btts_yes": 0.565, "btts_no": 0.435, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2412, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2569 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.75, "MCR": 6.85, "ATR": 6.77, "GK": 6.82 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.92, "MCR": 6.96, "ATR": 6.9, "GK": 6.99 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Crystal Palace vs Liverpool. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 4 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Crystal Palace 4W-3D-3L vs Liverpool over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Jørgen Strand Larsen, Alexander Isak", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Adam Wharton vs Dominik Szoboszlai will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.85, Away: 0.87. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.65, "home_lambda": 1.359, "away_lambda": 1.422, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 4, "away_wins": 3, "draws": 3, "home_multiplier": 1.0071, "away_multiplier": 0.9929 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1209, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3577, "draw": 0.256, "away_win": 0.3863 }, "favorite": "Liverpool", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3863, "fair_spread": -0.063, "fair_total": 2.781, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Crystal Palace", "estimate": 1.359, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Liverpool", "estimate": 1.422, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.526, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.565, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Crystal Palace", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2412, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Liverpool", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2569, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Jørgen Strand Larsen (Crystal Palace)", "estimate": 0.4072, "probability": 0.3345, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Alexander Isak (Liverpool)", "estimate": 0.4994, "probability": 0.3931, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Adam Wharton (Crystal Palace)", "estimate": 0.1468, "probability": 0.1365, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Dominik Szoboszlai (Liverpool)", "estimate": 0.213, "probability": 0.1918, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.781, "expected_total_shots": 26, "expected_total_passes": 888, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.9, "possession_home_pct": 49.5, "possession_away_pct": 50.5, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Liverpool", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3863, "script": "Liverpool is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.06 goals and fair total 2.78.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 13 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Crystal Palace must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Liverpool lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Liverpool chance creation leans on Alexander Isak against Jaydee Canvot, Chris Richards in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Crystal Palace: starters carry the main goal usage through Jørgen Strand Larsen; bench watchlist: Ismaïla Sarr, Quinten Timber, Óscar Mingueza.", "Liverpool: starters carry the main goal usage through Alexander Isak; bench watchlist: Bradley Barcola, Hugo Ekitiké, Trey Nyoni.", "Assist usage should flow through Adam Wharton, Florian Wirtz; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Liverpool tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 13 total first-half shots, and 1.39 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Crystal Palace is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Liverpool.", "Crystal Palace wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Crystal Palace": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "Dean Henderson": { "player_id": 788134, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 188, "market_value": 29000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.145, "rating": 6.8225, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 16, "total_long_balls": 19, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 40, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 1.5886, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 13.735, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 13, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.646, "shots_faced": 13.5, "expected_saves": 3.3, "high_pressure_saves": 1.14, "opponent_faced": "Alexander Isak, Dominik Szoboszlai", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, 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"76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 824, "combined_rank_score": 393.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 413.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9297, "sofascore_appearances": 37.0, "fifa_rank": 373.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8225, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dean Henderson", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Michal Beran", "ranking": 819 }, { "player_name": "Kim Jisung", "ranking": 820 }, { "player_name": "Florian Thauvin", "ranking": 821 }, { "player_name": "Corentin Tolisso", "ranking": 822 }, { "player_name": "José María Giménez", "ranking": 823 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Palhinha", "ranking": 825 }, { "player_name": "Pape Gueye", "ranking": 826 }, { "player_name": "Caoimhin Kelleher", "ranking": 827 }, { "player_name": "Antonio Raíllo", "ranking": 828 }, { "player_name": "Dilshod Akhmadaliev", "ranking": 829 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 41, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 41, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0067, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 41 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Crystal Palace, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.9867, "goals_prevented": -0.144, "rating": 6.8225, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 29.1788, "accurate_pass": 15.5538, 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"opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 11.8403, "accurateLongBalls": 4.9737, "possessionLostCtrl": 13.6436, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.3209, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.3566, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.6618 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.986660957336426, "model_output": 2.9867, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "importance": 0.0375 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.922, "items": [ { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": 0.1007 }, { "name": "punches", "contribution": 0.0288 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0267 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 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"name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0302 }, { "name": "punches", "contribution": -0.0225 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0192 } ], "others": -0.0524, "total": -0.144, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.028288, "item_margins": [ { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": 0.049967 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.041401 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.030199 }, { "name": "punches", "margin": -0.02247 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.019209 } ], "others_margin": -0.0524 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.822540283203125, "model_output": 6.8225, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0383 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0363 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9871, "items": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0386 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": 0.034 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0291 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0253 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.021 } ], "others": -0.0846, "total": 6.8225, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.987111, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.03863 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": 0.034006 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.029099 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.025269 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.021046 } ], "others_margin": -0.084532 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 41, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0067, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0067, "goals_prevented": -0.145, "rating": 6.8225, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 29.3743, "accurate_pass": 15.658, "total_long_balls": 18.6173, "accurate_long_balls": 5.007, "touches": 40.2086, "clearances": 2.088, "ball_recovery": 8.4093, "high_claims": 0.8684, "punches": 1.5886, "aerial_won": 0.1821, "sweeper_actions": 0.6662, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6662, "saves_inside_box": 3.1522, "possession_lost": 13.735, "duels_won": 0.2374, "duels_lost": 0.0461, "total_contest": 0.003, "won_contest": 0.003, "fouls": 0.0438, "fouls_drawn": 0.0203, "total_own_half_passes": 13.3881, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.9195 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0067, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0094)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0113, "goals_prevented": -0.145, "rating": 6.8225, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 29.3743, "accurate_pass": 15.658, "total_long_balls": 18.6173, "accurate_long_balls": 5.007, "touches": 40.2086, "clearances": 2.088, "ball_recovery": 8.4093, "high_claims": 0.8684, "punches": 1.5886, "aerial_won": 0.1821, "sweeper_actions": 0.6662, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6662, "saves_inside_box": 3.1522, "possession_lost": 13.735, "duels_won": 0.2374, "duels_lost": 0.0461, "total_contest": 0.003, "won_contest": 0.003, "fouls": 0.0434, "fouls_drawn": 0.0201, "total_own_half_passes": 13.3881, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.9195 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0094, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3.0113, "goals_prevented": -0.145, "rating": 6.8225, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 29.3743, "accurate_pass": 15.658, "total_long_balls": 18.6173, "accurate_long_balls": 5.007, "touches": 40.2086, "clearances": 2.088, "ball_recovery": 8.4093, "high_claims": 0.8684, "punches": 1.5886, "aerial_won": 0.1821, "sweeper_actions": 0.6662, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6662, "saves_inside_box": 3.1522, "possession_lost": 13.735, "duels_won": 0.2374, "duels_lost": 0.0461, "total_contest": 0.003, "won_contest": 0.003, "fouls": 0.0434, "fouls_drawn": 0.0201, "total_own_half_passes": 13.3881, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.9195 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0113, "goals_prevented": -0.145, "rating": 6.8225, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 29.3743, "accurate_pass": 15.658, "total_long_balls": 18.6173, "accurate_long_balls": 5.007, "touches": 40.2086, "clearances": 2.088, "ball_recovery": 8.4093, "high_claims": 0.8684, "punches": 1.5886, "aerial_won": 0.1821, "sweeper_actions": 0.6662, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6662, "saves_inside_box": 3.1522, "possession_lost": 13.735, "duels_won": 0.2374, "duels_lost": 0.0461, "total_contest": 0.003, "won_contest": 0.003, "fouls": 0.0434, "fouls_drawn": 0.0201, "total_own_half_passes": 13.3881, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.9195, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.646, "shots_faced": 15.6, "expected_saves": 3.81, "high_pressure_saves": 1.32, "opponent_faced": "Alexander Isak, Dominik Szoboszlai", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Alexander Isak, Dominik Szoboszlai", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.646 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 3.0113, "goals_prevented": -0.145, "rating": 6.8225, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 29.3743, "accurate_pass": 15.658, "total_long_balls": 18.6173, "accurate_long_balls": 5.007, "touches": 40.2086, "clearances": 2.088, "ball_recovery": 8.4093, "high_claims": 0.8684, "punches": 1.5886, "aerial_won": 0.1821, "sweeper_actions": 0.6662, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6662, "saves_inside_box": 3.1522, "possession_lost": 13.735, "duels_won": 0.2374, "duels_lost": 0.0461, "total_contest": 0.003, "won_contest": 0.003, "fouls": 0.0434, "fouls_drawn": 0.0201, "total_own_half_passes": 13.3881, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.9195, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.646, "shots_faced": 15.6, "expected_saves": 3.81, "high_pressure_saves": 1.32, "opponent_faced": "Alexander Isak, Dominik Szoboszlai", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.36 (squad xG sum 1.1097, xG scale 1.2247, xA scale 1.3679, team xA 0.88 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0113, "goals_prevented": -0.145, "rating": 6.8225, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 29.3743, "accurate_pass": 15.658, "total_long_balls": 18.6173, "accurate_long_balls": 5.007, "touches": 40.2086, "clearances": 2.088, "ball_recovery": 8.4093, "high_claims": 0.8684, "punches": 1.5886, "aerial_won": 0.1821, "sweeper_actions": 0.6662, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6662, "saves_inside_box": 3.1522, "possession_lost": 13.735, "duels_won": 0.2374, "duels_lost": 0.0461, "total_contest": 0.003, "won_contest": 0.003, "fouls": 0.0434, "fouls_drawn": 0.0201, "total_own_half_passes": 13.3881, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.9195, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.646, "shots_faced": 13.5, "expected_saves": 3.3, "high_pressure_saves": 1.14, "opponent_faced": "Alexander Isak, Dominik Szoboszlai", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.359, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1097, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6458, "team_expected_assists": 0.8833, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2247, "xa_scale": 1.3679, "opponent_lambda": 1.422, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 15.6, "after": 13.5 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 3.81, "after": 3.3 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.32, "after": 1.14 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0113, "goals_prevented": -0.145, "rating": 6.8225, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 29.3743, "accurate_pass": 15.658, "total_long_balls": 18.6173, "accurate_long_balls": 5.007, "touches": 40.2086, "clearances": 2.088, "ball_recovery": 8.4093, "high_claims": 0.8684, "punches": 1.5886, "aerial_won": 0.1821, "sweeper_actions": 0.6662, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6662, "saves_inside_box": 3.1522, "possession_lost": 13.735, "duels_won": 0.2374, "duels_lost": 0.0461, "total_contest": 0.003, "won_contest": 0.003, "fouls": 0.0434, "fouls_drawn": 0.0201, "total_own_half_passes": 13.3881, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.9195, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.646, "shots_faced": 13.5, "expected_saves": 3.3, "high_pressure_saves": 1.14, "opponent_faced": "Alexander Isak, Dominik Szoboszlai", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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"importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1083 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0497 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0286 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0071 } ], "others": -0.0253, "total": 0.3657, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.108305 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.049665 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.028641 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.010083 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.007116 } ], "others_margin": -0.025272 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.724496364593506, "model_output": 6.7245, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0241 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0089 } ], "others": -0.0174, "total": 6.7245, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024066 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015084 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.013866 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.01267 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.008866 } ], "others_margin": -0.017463 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 22, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0103, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2283, "tackles": 1.8866, "tackles_won": 1.069, "clearances": 5.368, "aerial_won": 1.7617, "total_shots": 0.3695, "rating": 6.7245, "minutes": 89.72, "total_pass": 46.336, "accurate_pass": 40.4128, "duels_won": 4.8543, "total_long_balls": 3.9529, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7583, "total_own_half_passes": 29.0411, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.8648, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5481, "crosses_total": 0.1836, "crosses_accurate": 0.0814, "touches": 61.9096, "possession_lost": 7.5379, "dispossessed": 0.1978, "duels_lost": 3.0122, "aerial_lost": 1.1491, "total_contest": 0.5114, "won_contest": 0.3251, "ball_recovery": 3.7711, "challenges_lost": 0.6793, "fouls": 0.8068, "fouls_drawn": 0.4319, "blocks": 0.777, "goals": 0.0, 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"fouls_drawn": 0.4328, "blocks": 0.777, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0252, "expected_assists": 0.0203, "shots_on_target": 0.0303, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0104, "ball_carries": 15.5827, "total_progression": 76.0723, "progressive_carries": 1.0384, "key_pass": 0.3824, "shots_off_target": 0.3388 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2187, "tackles": 1.8866, "tackles_won": 1.0811, "clearances": 5.368, "aerial_won": 1.7617, "total_shots": 0.3712, "rating": 6.7245, "minutes": 89.72, "total_pass": 46.336, "accurate_pass": 40.4128, "duels_won": 4.8543, "total_long_balls": 3.9529, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7583, "total_own_half_passes": 29.0411, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.8648, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5481, "crosses_total": 0.1812, "crosses_accurate": 0.0814, "touches": 61.9096, "possession_lost": 7.5379, "dispossessed": 0.1978, "duels_lost": 3.0122, "aerial_lost": 1.1491, "total_contest": 0.5114, "won_contest": 0.3251, "ball_recovery": 3.7711, "challenges_lost": 0.6793, "fouls": 0.7962, "fouls_drawn": 0.4328, "blocks": 0.777, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0252, "expected_assists": 0.0203, "shots_on_target": 0.0303, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0104, "ball_carries": 15.5827, "total_progression": 76.0723, "progressive_carries": 1.0384, "key_pass": 0.3824, "shots_off_target": 0.3388, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.541, "opponent_faced": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2187, "tackles": 1.8866, "tackles_won": 1.0811, "clearances": 5.368, "aerial_won": 1.7617, "total_shots": 0.3712, "rating": 6.7245, "minutes": 89.72, "total_pass": 46.336, "accurate_pass": 40.4128, "duels_won": 4.8543, "total_long_balls": 3.9529, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7583, "total_own_half_passes": 29.0411, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.8648, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5481, "crosses_total": 0.1812, "crosses_accurate": 0.0814, "touches": 61.9096, "possession_lost": 7.5379, "dispossessed": 0.1978, "duels_lost": 3.0122, "aerial_lost": 1.1491, "total_contest": 0.5114, "won_contest": 0.3251, "ball_recovery": 3.7711, "challenges_lost": 0.6793, "fouls": 0.7962, "fouls_drawn": 0.4328, "blocks": 0.777, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0252, "expected_assists": 0.0203, "shots_on_target": 0.0303, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0104, "ball_carries": 15.5827, "total_progression": 76.0723, "progressive_carries": 1.0384, "key_pass": 0.3824, "shots_off_target": 0.3388, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.541, "opponent_faced": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player 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0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0309, "expected_assists": 0.0278, "shots_on_target": 0.0303, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0127, "ball_carries": 15.5827, "total_progression": 76.0723, "progressive_carries": 1.0384, "key_pass": 0.3824, "shots_off_target": 0.3388, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.541, "opponent_faced": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.359, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1097, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6458, "team_expected_assists": 0.8833, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2247, "xa_scale": 1.3679, "opponent_lambda": 1.422, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0252, "after": 0.0309 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0203, "after": 0.0278 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2187, "tackles": 1.8866, "tackles_won": 1.0811, "clearances": 5.368, "aerial_won": 1.7617, "total_shots": 0.3712, "rating": 6.7245, "minutes": 89.72, "total_pass": 46.336, "accurate_pass": 40.4128, "duels_won": 4.8543, "total_long_balls": 3.9529, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7583, "total_own_half_passes": 29.0411, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.8648, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2949, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5481, "crosses_total": 0.1812, "crosses_accurate": 0.0814, "touches": 61.9096, "possession_lost": 7.5379, "dispossessed": 0.1978, "duels_lost": 3.0122, "aerial_lost": 1.1491, "total_contest": 0.5114, "won_contest": 0.3251, "ball_recovery": 3.7711, "challenges_lost": 0.6793, "fouls": 0.7962, "fouls_drawn": 0.4328, "blocks": 0.777, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0309, "expected_assists": 0.0278, "shots_on_target": 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"target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4739026725292206, "model_output": 0.4739, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0547 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0219 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0213 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0177 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0132 } ], "others": -0.0233, "total": 0.4739, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.054725 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.021887 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021294 }, { "name": "totalProgression", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0050, quality 0.585)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2183, "tackles": 1.5125, "tackles_won": 0.9937, "clearances": 5.3172, "aerial_won": 1.5074, "total_shots": 0.4763, "rating": 6.7484, "minutes": 83.96, "total_pass": 34.6795, "accurate_pass": 29.4973, "duels_won": 3.4091, "total_long_balls": 4.2466, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6339, "total_own_half_passes": 23.272, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.6528, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.4076, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8444, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.579, "possession_lost": 6.2207, "dispossessed": 0.251, "duels_lost": 2.3957, "aerial_lost": 0.9631, "total_contest": 0.4663, "won_contest": 0.4663, "ball_recovery": 2.9809, "challenges_lost": 0.4381, "fouls": 0.7435, "fouls_drawn": 0.1323, "blocks": 1.1913, "goals": 0.0, 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0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1426 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1054 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0611 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0255 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.017 } ], "others": -0.0277, "total": 0.9418, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.142589 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.105421 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.061097 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.025517 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.016976 } ], "others_margin": -0.027761 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.851837158203125, "model_output": 6.8518, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0335 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0099 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0098 } ], "others": -0.0156, "total": 6.8518, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.033532 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.015745 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.011919 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009913 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0007, quality 0.526)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8083, "expected_assists": 0.0704, "assists": 0.0834, "assist_rate": 0.0834, "expected_goals": 0.0769, "goals": 0.0897, "goal_rate": 0.0897, "shots_on_target": 0.3675, "total_shots": 0.9424, "rating": 6.8518, "minutes": 84.97, "total_pass": 32.5078, "accurate_pass": 26.6389, "duels_won": 3.6077, "total_long_balls": 2.4107, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6803, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0494, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.436, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.4584, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2029, "crosses_total": 0.699, "crosses_accurate": 0.1375, "touches": 43.5689, "possession_lost": 9.009, "dispossessed": 0.6853, "duels_lost": 2.9814, "aerial_won": 0.2922, "aerial_lost": 0.2719, "interceptions": 0.3306, "tackles_won": 1.2953, "tackles": 1.8745, "clearances": 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"importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0683 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0299 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0179 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.017 } ], "others": 0.0075, "total": 6.9087, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.068292 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.029872 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019452 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.017939 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.016956 } ], "others_margin": 0.007468 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0118, quality 0.881)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1234, "expected_assists": 0.1074, "assists": 0.0892, "assist_rate": 0.0892, "expected_goals": 0.0485, "goals": 0.0416, "goal_rate": 0.0416, "shots_on_target": 0.2142, "total_shots": 0.7797, "rating": 6.9087, "minutes": 87.73, "total_pass": 39.7025, "accurate_pass": 29.0306, "duels_won": 4.5712, "total_long_balls": 3.1686, "accurate_long_balls": 1.327, "total_own_half_passes": 15.6819, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.2712, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0205, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7593, "crosses_total": 2.7116, "crosses_accurate": 0.8125, "touches": 55.7886, "possession_lost": 15.4049, "dispossessed": 0.5987, "duels_lost": 3.7328, "aerial_won": 1.0851, "aerial_lost": 1.1334, "interceptions": 1.1201, "tackles_won": 1.0353, "tackles": 2.2229, "clearances": 1.9161, "total_contest": 0.364, "won_contest": 0.1655, "challenges_lost": 1.3335, "fouls": 0.5997, "fouls_drawn": 1.0977, "blocks": 0.1764, "big_chances_created": 0.3075, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0189, "ball_carries": 12.9366, "total_progression": 44.2998, "progressive_carries": 0.6076, "shots_off_target": 0.5654 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 79000000, "quality_factor": 0.8811, "boost_factor": 1.0118, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0090)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1234, "expected_assists": 0.1074, "assists": 0.0884, "assist_rate": 0.0884, "expected_goals": 0.0485, "goals": 0.0412, "goal_rate": 0.0412, "shots_on_target": 0.2123, "total_shots": 0.7727, "rating": 6.9087, "minutes": 87.73, "total_pass": 39.7025, "accurate_pass": 29.0306, "duels_won": 4.5712, "total_long_balls": 3.1686, "accurate_long_balls": 1.327, "total_own_half_passes": 15.6819, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.2712, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0205, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7593, "crosses_total": 2.6915, "crosses_accurate": 0.8125, "touches": 55.7886, "possession_lost": 15.4049, "dispossessed": 0.5987, "duels_lost": 3.7328, "aerial_won": 1.0851, "aerial_lost": 1.1334, "interceptions": 1.1276, "tackles_won": 1.0392, "tackles": 2.2229, "clearances": 1.9161, "total_contest": 0.364, "won_contest": 0.1655, "challenges_lost": 1.3335, "fouls": 0.5943, "fouls_drawn": 1.1054, "blocks": 0.1764, "big_chances_created": 0.3075, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0189, "ball_carries": 12.9366, "total_progression": 44.2998, "progressive_carries": 0.6076, "shots_off_target": 0.5654 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.009, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9748, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.7116, "after": 2.6915 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.0977, "after": 1.1054 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1201, "after": 1.1276 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.7797, "after": 0.7727 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.5997, "after": 0.5943 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1234, "expected_assists": 0.1074, "assists": 0.0884, "assist_rate": 0.0884, "expected_goals": 0.0485, "goals": 0.0412, "goal_rate": 0.0412, "shots_on_target": 0.2123, "total_shots": 0.7777, "rating": 6.9087, "minutes": 87.73, "total_pass": 39.7025, "accurate_pass": 29.0306, "duels_won": 4.5712, "total_long_balls": 3.1686, "accurate_long_balls": 1.327, "total_own_half_passes": 15.6819, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.2712, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0205, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7593, "crosses_total": 2.6915, "crosses_accurate": 0.8125, "touches": 55.7886, "possession_lost": 15.4049, "dispossessed": 0.5987, "duels_lost": 3.7328, "aerial_won": 1.0851, "aerial_lost": 1.1334, "interceptions": 1.1276, "tackles_won": 1.0392, "tackles": 2.2229, "clearances": 1.9161, "total_contest": 0.364, "won_contest": 0.1655, "challenges_lost": 1.3335, "fouls": 0.5943, "fouls_drawn": 1.1054, "blocks": 0.1764, "big_chances_created": 0.3075, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0189, "ball_carries": 12.9366, "total_progression": 44.2998, "progressive_carries": 0.6076, "shots_off_target": 0.5654 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1234, "expected_assists": 0.1074, "assists": 0.0884, "assist_rate": 0.0884, "expected_goals": 0.0502, "goals": 0.0426, "goal_rate": 0.0426, "shots_on_target": 0.2196, "total_shots": 0.8043, "rating": 6.9087, "minutes": 87.73, "total_pass": 39.7025, "accurate_pass": 29.0306, "duels_won": 4.5712, "total_long_balls": 3.1686, "accurate_long_balls": 1.327, "total_own_half_passes": 15.6819, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.2712, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0205, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7593, "crosses_total": 2.6915, "crosses_accurate": 0.8125, "touches": 55.7886, "possession_lost": 15.4049, "dispossessed": 0.5987, "duels_lost": 3.7328, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.1334, "interceptions": 1.1276, "tackles_won": 1.0392, "tackles": 2.2229, "clearances": 1.9161, "total_contest": 0.364, "won_contest": 0.1655, "challenges_lost": 1.3335, "fouls": 0.5943, "fouls_drawn": 1.1054, "blocks": 0.1764, "big_chances_created": 0.3075, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0195, "ball_carries": 12.9366, "total_progression": 44.2998, "progressive_carries": 0.6076, "shots_off_target": 0.5847, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0342, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.473, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Alexis Mac Allister", "opponent_faced": "Alexis Mac Allister", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Alexis Mac Allister", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.473, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0342, "skill_edge": -0.0007, "height_edge": 0.024, "attacker_skill": 0.8877, "defender_skill": 0.8893, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Alexis Mac Allister", "market_value": 77000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8893 } ], "xg_override": 0.0502 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.7777, "after": 0.8043 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.5654, "after": 0.5847 }, { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 1.0851, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2123, "after": 0.2196 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1234, "expected_assists": 0.1074, "assist_rate": 0.0884, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0502, "goal_rate": 0.0426, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2196, "total_shots": 0.8043, "rating": 6.9087, "minutes": 87.73, "total_pass": 39.7025, "accurate_pass": 29.0306, "duels_won": 4.5712, "total_long_balls": 3.1686, "accurate_long_balls": 1.327, "total_own_half_passes": 15.6819, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.2712, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0205, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7593, "crosses_total": 2.6915, "crosses_accurate": 0.8125, "touches": 55.7886, "possession_lost": 15.4049, "dispossessed": 0.5987, "duels_lost": 3.7328, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.1334, "interceptions": 1.1276, "tackles_won": 1.0392, "tackles": 2.2229, "clearances": 1.9161, "total_contest": 0.364, "won_contest": 0.1655, "challenges_lost": 1.3335, "fouls": 0.5943, "fouls_drawn": 1.1054, "blocks": 0.1764, "big_chances_created": 0.3075, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0195, "ball_carries": 12.9366, "total_progression": 44.2998, "progressive_carries": 0.6076, "shots_off_target": 0.5847, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0342, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.473, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Alexis Mac Allister", "opponent_faced": "Alexis Mac Allister", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.36 (squad xG sum 1.1097, xG scale 1.2247, xA scale 1.3679, team xA 0.88 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1234, "expected_assists": 0.1468, "assist_rate": 0.0884, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0615, "goal_rate": 0.0426, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2196, "total_shots": 0.8043, "rating": 6.9087, "minutes": 87.73, "total_pass": 39.7025, "accurate_pass": 29.0306, "duels_won": 4.5712, "total_long_balls": 3.1686, "accurate_long_balls": 1.327, "total_own_half_passes": 15.6819, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.2712, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0205, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7593, "crosses_total": 2.6915, "crosses_accurate": 0.8125, "touches": 55.7886, "possession_lost": 15.4049, "dispossessed": 0.5987, "duels_lost": 3.7328, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.1334, "interceptions": 1.1276, "tackles_won": 1.0392, "tackles": 2.2229, "clearances": 1.9161, "total_contest": 0.364, "won_contest": 0.1655, "challenges_lost": 1.3335, "fouls": 0.5943, "fouls_drawn": 1.1054, "blocks": 0.1764, "big_chances_created": 0.3075, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0239, "ball_carries": 12.9366, "total_progression": 44.2998, "progressive_carries": 0.6076, "shots_off_target": 0.5847, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0342, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.473, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Alexis Mac Allister", "opponent_faced": "Alexis Mac Allister", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9242, "creation_factor": 0.8793 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.359, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1097, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6458, "team_expected_assists": 0.8833, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2247, "xa_scale": 1.3679, "opponent_lambda": 1.422, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0502, "after": 0.0615 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1074, "after": 0.1468 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1234, "expected_assists": 0.1468, "assist_rate": 0.0884, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0615, "goal_rate": 0.0426, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2196, "total_shots": 0.8043, "rating": 6.9087, "minutes": 87.73, "total_pass": 39.7025, "accurate_pass": 29.0306, "duels_won": 4.5712, "total_long_balls": 3.1686, "accurate_long_balls": 1.327, "total_own_half_passes": 15.6819, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.2712, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0205, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7593, "crosses_total": 2.6915, "crosses_accurate": 0.8125, "touches": 55.7886, "possession_lost": 15.4049, "dispossessed": 0.5987, "duels_lost": 3.7328, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.1334, "interceptions": 1.1276, "tackles_won": 1.0392, "tackles": 2.2229, "clearances": 1.9161, "total_contest": 0.364, "won_contest": 0.1655, "challenges_lost": 1.3335, "fouls": 0.5943, "fouls_drawn": 1.1054, "blocks": 0.1764, "big_chances_created": 0.3075, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0239, "ball_carries": 12.9366, "total_progression": 44.2998, "progressive_carries": 0.6076, "shots_off_target": 0.5847, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0342, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.473, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Alexis Mac Allister", "opponent_faced": "Alexis Mac Allister", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9242, "creation_factor": 0.8793, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 699, "fifa_rank": 385.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1234, "expected_assists": 0.1468, "assist_rate": 0.0884, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0615, "goal_rate": 0.0426, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2196, "total_shots": 0.8043, "rating": 6.9087, "minutes": 87.73, "total_pass": 39.7025, "accurate_pass": 29.0306, "duels_won": 4.5712, "total_long_balls": 3.1686, "accurate_long_balls": 1.327, "total_own_half_passes": 15.6819, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.2712, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0205, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7593, "crosses_total": 2.6915, "crosses_accurate": 0.8125, "touches": 55.7886, "possession_lost": 15.4049, "dispossessed": 0.5987, "duels_lost": 3.7328, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.1334, "interceptions": 1.1276, "tackles_won": 1.0392, "tackles": 2.2229, "clearances": 1.9161, "total_contest": 0.364, "won_contest": 0.1655, "challenges_lost": 1.3335, "fouls": 0.5943, "fouls_drawn": 1.1054, "blocks": 0.1764, "big_chances_created": 0.3075, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0239, "ball_carries": 12.9366, "total_progression": 44.2998, "progressive_carries": 0.6076, "shots_off_target": 0.5847, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0342, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.473, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Alexis Mac Allister", "opponent_faced": "Alexis Mac Allister", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0596, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9242, "creation_factor": 0.8793, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0596, "goal_rate": 0.0426, "scorer_weight": 0.0568, "squad_weight_total": 1.3646, "weight_share": 0.0417, "finishing_factor": 0.9242, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "weight": 0.3538, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3538, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1801 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1234, "expected_assists": 0.1468, "assist_rate": 0.0884, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0615, "goal_rate": 0.0426, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2196, "total_shots": 0.8043, "rating": 6.9087, "minutes": 87.73, 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.142951 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.064545 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.064089 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.06202 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.032908 } ], "others_margin": -0.053486 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.828457355499268, "model_output": 6.8285, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0271 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0076 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 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"name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1635 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0812 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0842 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0791 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0736 } ], "others": 0.1962, "total": 1.2223, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.212225 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.090712 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.086052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.074638 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.069251 } ], "others_margin": 0.174936 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9075398445129395, "model_output": 6.9075, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": 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"role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0057, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1345, "goals": 0.1834, "goal_rate": 0.1834, "shots_on_target": 0.4616, "total_shots": 1.2268, "expected_assists": 0.0874, "key_pass": 1.2293, "rating": 6.9075, "minutes": 70.39, "total_pass": 28.2853, "accurate_pass": 21.5552, "duels_won": 3.1547, "total_long_balls": 1.9326, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0732, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.8526, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.2883, "crosses_total": 2.6757, "crosses_accurate": 0.4507, "touches": 42.6733, "possession_lost": 13.379, "dispossessed": 1.0074, "duels_lost": 3.9292, "aerial_lost": 0.7351, "total_contest": 1.4496, "won_contest": 0.5071, "ball_recovery": 2.9641, "challenges_lost": 0.7593, "fouls": 0.5386, "fouls_drawn": 1.0128, "assists": 0.0042, "assist_rate": 0.0042, "interceptions": 0.5425, 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false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.048446 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.018307 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014776 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.013509 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.011642 } ], "others_margin": -0.049129 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 31, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"total_progression": 7.8547, "progressive_carries": 0.3236, "shots_off_target": 1.0725 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3325, "goals": 0.2823, "goal_rate": 0.2823, "shots_on_target": 0.7263, "total_shots": 1.815, "expected_assists": 0.0524, "key_pass": 0.6, "rating": 6.7144, "minutes": 73.07, "total_pass": 15.3286, "accurate_pass": 10.8231, "duels_won": 3.857, "total_long_balls": 0.8318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4769, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7879, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7036, "crosses_total": 0.0092, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.4646, "possession_lost": 9.4019, "dispossessed": 1.3205, "duels_lost": 7.5181, "aerial_lost": 4.2559, "total_contest": 0.8968, "won_contest": 0.3833, "ball_recovery": 1.4332, "challenges_lost": 0.347, "fouls": 1.0973, "fouls_drawn": 1.1365, "assists": 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"shots_off_target": 1.0887, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0151, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.21, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Virgil van Dijk, Jérémy Jacquet", "opponent_faced": "Virgil van Dijk, Jérémy Jacquet", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.36 (squad xG sum 1.1097, xG scale 1.2247, xA scale 1.3679, team xA 0.88 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4072, "goal_rate": 0.2823, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7263, "total_shots": 1.815, 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"dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.21, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Virgil van Dijk, Jérémy Jacquet", "opponent_faced": "Virgil van Dijk, Jérémy Jacquet", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8688, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.359, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1097, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6458, "team_expected_assists": 0.8833, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2247, "xa_scale": 1.3679, "opponent_lambda": 1.422, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.3325, "after": 0.4072 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0524, "after": 0.0717 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4072, "goal_rate": 0.2823, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7263, "total_shots": 1.815, "expected_assists": 0.0717, "key_pass": 0.6, "rating": 6.7144, "minutes": 73.07, "total_pass": 15.3286, "accurate_pass": 10.8231, "duels_won": 3.857, "total_long_balls": 0.8318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4769, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7879, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7036, "crosses_total": 0.0092, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.4646, "possession_lost": 9.4019, "dispossessed": 1.3205, "duels_lost": 7.5181, "aerial_lost": 4.2559, "total_contest": 0.8968, "won_contest": 0.3833, "ball_recovery": 1.4332, "challenges_lost": 0.347, "fouls": 1.0973, "fouls_drawn": 1.1365, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0272, "tackles_won": 0.2165, "tackles": 0.4205, "clearances": 1.1366, "blocks": 0.4044, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2351, "xgot": 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1418.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4072, "goal_rate": 0.2823, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.7263, "total_shots": 1.815, "expected_assists": 0.0717, "key_pass": 0.6, "rating": 6.7144, "minutes": 73.07, "total_pass": 15.3286, "accurate_pass": 10.8231, "duels_won": 3.857, "total_long_balls": 0.8318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4769, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7879, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7036, "crosses_total": 0.0092, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.4646, "possession_lost": 9.4019, "dispossessed": 1.3205, "duels_lost": 7.5181, "aerial_lost": 4.2559, "total_contest": 0.8968, "won_contest": 0.3833, "ball_recovery": 1.4332, "challenges_lost": 0.347, "fouls": 1.0973, "fouls_drawn": 1.1365, "assist_rate": 0.0, 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"description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1339, "goal_rate": 0.1395, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3614, "total_shots": 1.1403, "expected_assists": 0.0776, "key_pass": 0.8129, "rating": 6.7019, "minutes": 73.56, "total_pass": 18.9886, "accurate_pass": 15.2404, "duels_won": 2.9578, "total_long_balls": 0.8848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2923, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8048, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9443, "crosses_total": 1.5242, "crosses_accurate": 0.3498, "touches": 32.3248, "possession_lost": 7.75, "dispossessed": 1.1647, "duels_lost": 4.6389, "aerial_lost": 1.8797, "total_contest": 0.294, "won_contest": 0.1941, "ball_recovery": 3.3184, "challenges_lost": 1.0865, "fouls": 0.4112, "fouls_drawn": 0.7157, "assist_rate": 0.0165, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8183, "tackles_won": 1.1582, "tackles": 1.7199, 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"margin": -0.013008 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.012091 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.00958 } ], "others_margin": -0.036363 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.755338191986084, "model_output": 6.7553, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0166 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0085 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0083 } ], "others": -0.0007, "total": 6.7553, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 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"totalShots", "margin": 0.084892 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.070558 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.039318 } ], "others_margin": -0.194542 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5246540904045105, "model_output": 0.5247, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4103 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0499 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0359 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0236 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0207 } ], "others": -0.1082, "total": 0.5247, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.410263 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.04993 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.035873 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.023627 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.020697 } ], "others_margin": -0.108399 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.683845043182373, "model_output": 6.6838, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1019 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0229 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0118 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0083 } ], "others": -0.01, "total": 6.6838, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.1019 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.022919 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018671 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.01177 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.00827 } ], "others_margin": -0.010031 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0245, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4076, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "assists": 0.0485, "assist_rate": 0.0485, "expected_goals": 0.0502, "goals": 0.0601, "goal_rate": 0.0601, "shots_on_target": 0.1137, "total_shots": 0.5375, "rating": 6.6838, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 26.4212, "accurate_pass": 20.0737, "duels_won": 6.0256, "total_long_balls": 1.9801, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9479, "total_own_half_passes": 10.5328, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6051, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.8885, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4686, "crosses_total": 0.3692, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.5688, "possession_lost": 11.346, "dispossessed": 1.524, "duels_lost": 4.9791, "aerial_won": 0.4344, "aerial_lost": 0.9479, "interceptions": 0.62, "tackles_won": 1.2572, "tackles": 2.3702, "clearances": 1.0085, "total_contest": 2.0937, "won_contest": 0.9786, "challenges_lost": 0.1996, "fouls": 1.392, "fouls_drawn": 2.2423, "blocks": 0.1442, "big_chances_created": 0.2348, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0099, "ball_carries": 10.2955, "total_progression": 44.9222, "progressive_carries": 1.6564, "shots_off_target": 0.4238 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0245, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 22.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.491, "expected_assists": 0.0399, "assists": 0.0584, "assist_rate": 0.0584, "expected_goals": 0.0605, "goals": 0.0724, "goal_rate": 0.0724, "shots_on_target": 0.137, "total_shots": 0.6475, "rating": 6.6838, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 31.8269, "accurate_pass": 24.1807, "duels_won": 7.2584, "total_long_balls": 2.3852, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1418, "total_own_half_passes": 12.6878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5703, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6105, "crosses_total": 0.4447, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.6875, "possession_lost": 13.6674, "dispossessed": 1.524, "duels_lost": 5.9978, "aerial_won": 0.5233, "aerial_lost": 0.9479, "interceptions": 0.7469, "tackles_won": 1.5144, "tackles": 2.8551, "clearances": 1.2148, "total_contest": 2.5221, "won_contest": 1.1788, "challenges_lost": 0.1996, "fouls": 1.6768, "fouls_drawn": 2.7011, "blocks": 0.1737, "big_chances_created": 0.2828, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0119, "ball_carries": 12.4019, "total_progression": 54.1132, "progressive_carries": 1.9953, "shots_off_target": 0.5105, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.89, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.2046, "appearance_probability": 0.54 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.491, "expected_assists": 0.0399, "assists": 0.0584, "assist_rate": 0.0584, "expected_goals": 0.0605, "goals": 0.0724, "goal_rate": 0.0724, "shots_on_target": 0.137, "total_shots": 0.6475, "rating": 6.6838, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 31.8269, "accurate_pass": 24.1807, "duels_won": 7.2584, "total_long_balls": 2.3852, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1418, "total_own_half_passes": 12.6878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5703, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6105, "crosses_total": 0.4447, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.6875, "possession_lost": 13.6674, "dispossessed": 1.524, "duels_lost": 5.9978, "aerial_won": 0.5233, "aerial_lost": 0.9479, "interceptions": 0.7469, "tackles_won": 1.5144, "tackles": 2.8551, "clearances": 1.2148, "total_contest": 2.5221, "won_contest": 1.1788, "challenges_lost": 0.1996, "fouls": 1.6768, "fouls_drawn": 2.7011, "blocks": 0.1737, "big_chances_created": 0.2828, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0119, "ball_carries": 12.4019, "total_progression": 54.1132, "progressive_carries": 1.9953, "shots_off_target": 0.5105, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; 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"progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3378 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.27 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0473 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0454 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0427 } ], "others": -0.0884, "total": 0.2479, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.337844 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.269981 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.047263 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.045407 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.042705 } ], "others_margin": -0.088369 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.711082458496094, "model_output": 6.7111, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0917 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0301 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.018 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0116 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.008 } ], "others": -0.0261, "total": 6.7111, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.091657 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.030054 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018017 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.011612 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.007971 } ], "others_margin": -0.026178 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0029, quality 0.586)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3491, "expected_assists": 0.0336, "assists": 0.043, "assist_rate": 0.043, "expected_goals": 0.0188, "goals": 0.0306, "goal_rate": 0.0306, "shots_on_target": 0.0835, "total_shots": 0.2487, "rating": 6.7111, "minutes": 17.82, "total_pass": 13.6738, "accurate_pass": 11.5259, "duels_won": 1.2651, "total_long_balls": 1.0401, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3741, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5022, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.7208, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1716, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8053, "crosses_total": 1.1292, "crosses_accurate": 0.1882, "touches": 20.3567, "possession_lost": 4.2694, "dispossessed": 0.1474, "duels_lost": 1.2518, "aerial_won": 0.1247, "aerial_lost": 0.2229, "interceptions": 0.0169, "tackles_won": 0.5873, "tackles": 0.8809, "clearances": 0.3492, "total_contest": 0.2037, "won_contest": 0.103, "challenges_lost": 0.4498, "fouls": 0.331, "fouls_drawn": 0.1565, "blocks": 0.0884, "big_chances_created": 0.1389, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6083, "total_progression": 15.6252, "progressive_carries": 0.3608, "shots_off_target": 0.1652 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15600000, "quality_factor": 0.5857, "boost_factor": 1.0029, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0010)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3491, "expected_assists": 0.0336, "assists": 0.043, "assist_rate": 0.043, "expected_goals": 0.0188, "goals": 0.0306, "goal_rate": 0.0306, "shots_on_target": 0.0834, "total_shots": 0.2484, "rating": 6.7111, "minutes": 17.82, "total_pass": 13.6738, "accurate_pass": 11.5259, "duels_won": 1.2651, "total_long_balls": 1.0401, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3741, 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"contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0133 } ], "others": -0.046, "total": 0.3122, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.450415 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.079899 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.048913 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.042544 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.036434 } ], "others_margin": -0.137412 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.654062747955322, "model_output": 6.6541, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0634 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0077 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0074 } ], "others": -0.0329, "total": 6.6541, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.063388 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012459 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010683 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.007734 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.007405 } ], "others_margin": -0.033071 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0125, quality 0.796)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1039, "goals": 0.1509, "goal_rate": 0.1509, "shots_on_target": 0.2843, "total_shots": 0.7214, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "key_pass": 0.3161, "rating": 6.6541, "minutes": 22.31, "total_pass": 5.7927, "accurate_pass": 4.0654, "duels_won": 0.2355, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7746, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7028, "crosses_total": 0.5423, "crosses_accurate": 0.258, "touches": 9.2282, "possession_lost": 3.3255, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.6397, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.277, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.569, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1273, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1082, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1813, "xgot": 0.0286, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.1371, "total_progression": 7.8898, "progressive_carries": 0.3436, "shots_off_target": 0.437 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 43000000, "quality_factor": 0.7957, "boost_factor": 1.0125, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.3 to 26.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1244, "goals": 0.1807, "goal_rate": 0.1807, "shots_on_target": 0.3404, "total_shots": 0.8637, "expected_assists": 0.0302, "key_pass": 0.3785, "rating": 6.6541, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0342, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5587, "total_progression": 9.4461, "progressive_carries": 0.4114, "shots_off_target": 0.5232, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.71, "projection_minutes": 22.31, "minutes_scale": 1.1973, "appearance_probability": 0.623 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1244, "goals": 0.1807, "goal_rate": 0.1807, "shots_on_target": 0.3404, "total_shots": 0.8637, "expected_assists": 0.0302, "key_pass": 0.3785, "rating": 6.6541, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0342, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5587, "total_progression": 9.4461, "progressive_carries": 0.4114, "shots_off_target": 0.5232, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1244, "goal_rate": 0.1807, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3404, "total_shots": 0.8637, "expected_assists": 0.0302, "key_pass": 0.3785, "rating": 6.6541, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0342, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5587, "total_progression": 9.4461, "progressive_carries": 0.4114, "shots_off_target": 0.5232, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.584, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.36 (squad xG sum 1.1097, xG scale 1.2247, xA scale 1.3679, team xA 0.88 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0949, "goal_rate": 0.1807, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3404, "total_shots": 0.8637, "expected_assists": 0.0257, "key_pass": 0.3785, "rating": 6.6541, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0261, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5587, "total_progression": 9.4461, "progressive_carries": 0.4114, "shots_off_target": 0.5232, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.584, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.359, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1097, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6458, "team_expected_assists": 0.8833, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2247, "xa_scale": 1.3679, "opponent_lambda": 1.422, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.623 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1244, "after": 0.0949 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0949, "goal_rate": 0.1807, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3404, "total_shots": 0.8637, "expected_assists": 0.0257, "key_pass": 0.3785, "rating": 6.6541, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0261, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5587, "total_progression": 9.4461, "progressive_carries": 0.4114, "shots_off_target": 0.5232, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.584, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1187, "fifa_rank": 504.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0949, "goal_rate": 0.1807, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3404, "total_shots": 0.8637, "expected_assists": 0.0257, "key_pass": 0.3785, "rating": 6.6541, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, 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"n": 1, "player": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "weight": 0.3538, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3538, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1801 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0949, "goal_rate": 0.1807, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3404, "total_shots": 0.8637, "expected_assists": 0.0257, "key_pass": 0.3785, "rating": 6.6541, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, 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"xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0075, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1152, "goals": 0.1554, "goal_rate": 0.1554, "shots_on_target": 0.3725, "total_shots": 0.9866, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "key_pass": 0.2435, "rating": 6.5285, "minutes": 24.16, "total_pass": 3.3683, "accurate_pass": 1.766, "duels_won": 2.1923, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0539, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.6576, "crosses_total": 0.401, "crosses_accurate": 0.1501, "touches": 9.7668, "possession_lost": 3.8475, "dispossessed": 1.0349, "duels_lost": 3.0243, "aerial_lost": 1.5102, "total_contest": 0.543, "won_contest": 0.4155, "ball_recovery": 0.9387, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4438, "fouls_drawn": 0.4428, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0784, "tackles_won": 0.0784, "tackles": 0.1868, "clearances": 0.3945, "blocks": 0.1084, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3353, "xgot": 0.3378, "offsides": 0.2743, "ball_carries": 2.3036, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0784, "shots_off_target": 0.6141 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0075, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0037)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1152, "goals": 0.1548, "goal_rate": 0.1548, "shots_on_target": 0.3711, "total_shots": 0.9858, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "key_pass": 0.2435, "rating": 6.5285, "minutes": 24.16, "total_pass": 3.3683, "accurate_pass": 1.766, "duels_won": 2.1923, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0539, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.6576, "crosses_total": 0.3995, "crosses_accurate": 0.1501, "touches": 9.7668, "possession_lost": 3.8475, "dispossessed": 1.0349, "duels_lost": 3.0243, "aerial_lost": 1.5102, "total_contest": 0.543, "won_contest": 0.4155, "ball_recovery": 0.9387, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.445, "fouls_drawn": 0.4412, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0781, "tackles_won": 0.0781, "tackles": 0.1868, "clearances": 0.3945, "blocks": 0.1084, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3353, "xgot": 0.3378, "offsides": 0.2733, "ball_carries": 2.3036, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0784, "shots_off_target": 0.6141 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0037, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2684, "prior_reliability": 0.0467, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.2 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.36)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1257, "goals": 0.169, "goal_rate": 0.169, "shots_on_target": 0.4051, "total_shots": 1.076, "expected_assists": 0.0122, "key_pass": 0.2658, "rating": 6.5285, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 3.6766, "accurate_pass": 1.9277, "duels_won": 2.393, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3335, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8093, "crosses_total": 0.4361, "crosses_accurate": 0.1638, "touches": 10.6608, "possession_lost": 4.1997, "dispossessed": 1.0349, "duels_lost": 3.3011, "aerial_lost": 1.5102, "total_contest": 0.5927, "won_contest": 0.4535, "ball_recovery": 1.0246, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4857, "fouls_drawn": 0.4816, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0852, "tackles_won": 0.0852, "tackles": 0.2039, "clearances": 0.4306, "blocks": 0.1183, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.366, "xgot": 0.3687, "offsides": 0.2733, "ball_carries": 2.5145, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0856, "shots_off_target": 0.6703, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.356, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.37, "projection_minutes": 24.16, "minutes_scale": 1.0915, "appearance_probability": 0.356 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1257, "goals": 0.169, "goal_rate": 0.169, "shots_on_target": 0.4051, "total_shots": 1.076, "expected_assists": 0.0122, "key_pass": 0.2658, "rating": 6.5285, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 3.6766, "accurate_pass": 1.9277, "duels_won": 2.393, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3335, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8093, "crosses_total": 0.4361, "crosses_accurate": 0.1638, "touches": 10.6608, "possession_lost": 4.1997, "dispossessed": 1.0349, "duels_lost": 3.3011, "aerial_lost": 1.5102, "total_contest": 0.5927, "won_contest": 0.4535, "ball_recovery": 1.0246, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4857, "fouls_drawn": 0.4816, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0852, "tackles_won": 0.0852, "tackles": 0.2039, "clearances": 0.4306, "blocks": 0.1183, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.366, "xgot": 0.3687, "offsides": 0.2733, "ball_carries": 2.5145, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0856, "shots_off_target": 0.6703, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.356, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1257, "goal_rate": 0.169, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4051, "total_shots": 1.076, "expected_assists": 0.0122, "key_pass": 0.2658, "rating": 6.5285, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 3.6766, "accurate_pass": 1.9277, "duels_won": 2.393, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3335, 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"projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.356, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1257, "goal_rate": 0.169, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4051, "total_shots": 1.076, "expected_assists": 0.0122, "key_pass": 0.2658, "rating": 6.5285, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 3.6766, "accurate_pass": 1.9277, "duels_won": 2.393, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3335, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8093, "crosses_total": 0.4361, "crosses_accurate": 0.1638, "touches": 10.6608, "possession_lost": 4.1997, "dispossessed": 1.0349, "duels_lost": 3.3011, "aerial_lost": 1.5102, "total_contest": 0.5927, "won_contest": 0.4535, "ball_recovery": 1.0246, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4857, "fouls_drawn": 0.4816, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0852, "tackles_won": 0.0852, "tackles": 0.2039, "clearances": 0.4306, "blocks": 0.1183, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.366, "xgot": 0.3687, 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"total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083656.0, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083613.0, "match_date": "2026-05-12", 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"league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 896, "combined_rank_score": 419.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 419.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9242, "sofascore_appearances": 34.0, "fifa_rank": 420.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7111, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Óscar Mingueza", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alexis Saelemaekers", "ranking": 891 }, { "player_name": "Malick Thiaw", "ranking": 892 }, { "player_name": "Maxence Lacroix", "ranking": 893 }, { "player_name": "Matty Cash", "ranking": 894 }, { "player_name": "Stefan de Vrij", "ranking": 895 } ], "lower": [ { 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{ "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3378 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.27 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0473 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0454 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0427 } ], "others": -0.0884, "total": 0.2479, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.337844 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.269981 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.047263 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.045407 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.042705 } ], "others_margin": -0.088369 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.711082458496094, "model_output": 6.7111, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0917 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0301 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.018 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0116 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.008 } ], "others": -0.0261, "total": 6.7111, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.091657 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.030054 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018017 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.011612 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0029, quality 0.586)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3491, "expected_assists": 0.0336, "assists": 0.043, "assist_rate": 0.043, "expected_goals": 0.0188, "goals": 0.0306, "goal_rate": 0.0306, "shots_on_target": 0.0835, "total_shots": 0.2487, "rating": 6.7111, "minutes": 17.82, "total_pass": 13.6738, "accurate_pass": 11.5259, "duels_won": 1.2651, "total_long_balls": 1.0401, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3741, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5022, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.7208, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1716, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8053, "crosses_total": 1.1292, "crosses_accurate": 0.1882, "touches": 20.3567, "possession_lost": 4.2694, "dispossessed": 0.1474, "duels_lost": 1.2518, "aerial_won": 0.1247, "aerial_lost": 0.2229, "interceptions": 0.0169, "tackles_won": 0.5873, "tackles": 0.8809, "clearances": 0.3492, "total_contest": 0.2037, "won_contest": 0.103, "challenges_lost": 0.4498, "fouls": 0.331, "fouls_drawn": 0.1565, "blocks": 0.0884, "big_chances_created": 0.1389, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6083, "total_progression": 15.6252, "progressive_carries": 0.3608, "shots_off_target": 0.1652 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15600000, "quality_factor": 0.5857, "boost_factor": 1.0029, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0010)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3491, "expected_assists": 0.0336, "assists": 0.043, "assist_rate": 0.043, "expected_goals": 0.0188, "goals": 0.0306, "goal_rate": 0.0306, "shots_on_target": 0.0834, "total_shots": 0.2484, "rating": 6.7111, "minutes": 17.82, "total_pass": 13.6738, "accurate_pass": 11.5259, "duels_won": 1.2651, "total_long_balls": 1.0401, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3741, 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"contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0133 } ], "others": -0.046, "total": 0.3122, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.450415 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.079899 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.048913 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.042544 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.036434 } ], "others_margin": -0.137412 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.654062747955322, "model_output": 6.6541, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0634 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0077 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0074 } ], "others": -0.0329, "total": 6.6541, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.063388 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012459 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010683 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.007734 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.007405 } ], "others_margin": -0.033071 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0125, quality 0.796)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1039, "goals": 0.1509, "goal_rate": 0.1509, "shots_on_target": 0.2843, "total_shots": 0.7214, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "key_pass": 0.3161, "rating": 6.6541, "minutes": 22.31, "total_pass": 5.7927, "accurate_pass": 4.0654, "duels_won": 0.2355, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7746, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7028, "crosses_total": 0.5423, "crosses_accurate": 0.258, "touches": 9.2282, "possession_lost": 3.3255, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.6397, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.277, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.569, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1273, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1082, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1813, "xgot": 0.0286, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.1371, "total_progression": 7.8898, "progressive_carries": 0.3436, "shots_off_target": 0.437 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 43000000, "quality_factor": 0.7957, "boost_factor": 1.0125, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.3 to 26.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1244, "goals": 0.1807, "goal_rate": 0.1807, "shots_on_target": 0.3404, "total_shots": 0.8637, "expected_assists": 0.0302, "key_pass": 0.3785, "rating": 6.6541, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0342, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5587, "total_progression": 9.4461, "progressive_carries": 0.4114, "shots_off_target": 0.5232, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.71, "projection_minutes": 22.31, "minutes_scale": 1.1973, "appearance_probability": 0.623 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1244, "goals": 0.1807, "goal_rate": 0.1807, "shots_on_target": 0.3404, "total_shots": 0.8637, "expected_assists": 0.0302, "key_pass": 0.3785, "rating": 6.6541, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0342, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5587, "total_progression": 9.4461, "progressive_carries": 0.4114, "shots_off_target": 0.5232, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1244, "goal_rate": 0.1807, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3404, "total_shots": 0.8637, "expected_assists": 0.0302, "key_pass": 0.3785, "rating": 6.6541, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0342, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5587, "total_progression": 9.4461, "progressive_carries": 0.4114, "shots_off_target": 0.5232, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.584, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.36 (squad xG sum 1.1097, xG scale 1.2247, xA scale 1.3679, team xA 0.88 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0949, "goal_rate": 0.1807, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3404, "total_shots": 0.8637, "expected_assists": 0.0257, "key_pass": 0.3785, "rating": 6.6541, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0261, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5587, "total_progression": 9.4461, "progressive_carries": 0.4114, "shots_off_target": 0.5232, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.584, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.359, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1097, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6458, "team_expected_assists": 0.8833, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2247, "xa_scale": 1.3679, "opponent_lambda": 1.422, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.623 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1244, "after": 0.0949 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0949, "goal_rate": 0.1807, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3404, "total_shots": 0.8637, "expected_assists": 0.0257, "key_pass": 0.3785, "rating": 6.6541, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0261, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5587, "total_progression": 9.4461, "progressive_carries": 0.4114, "shots_off_target": 0.5232, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.584, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1187, "fifa_rank": 504.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0949, "goal_rate": 0.1807, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3404, "total_shots": 0.8637, "expected_assists": 0.0257, "key_pass": 0.3785, "rating": 6.6541, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0261, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5587, "total_progression": 9.4461, "progressive_carries": 0.4114, "shots_off_target": 0.5232, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.584, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.088, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.088, "goal_rate": 0.1807, "scorer_weight": 0.1186, "squad_weight_total": 1.3646, "weight_share": 0.0869, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.623, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "weight": 0.3538, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3538, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1801 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0949, "goal_rate": 0.1807, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3404, "total_shots": 0.8637, "expected_assists": 0.0257, "key_pass": 0.3785, "rating": 6.6541, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0261, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5587, "total_progression": 9.4461, "progressive_carries": 0.4114, "shots_off_target": 0.5232, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.584, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.088, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0252, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0252, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0206, "squad_weight_total": 0.8034, "weight_share": 0.0256, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.623, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adam Wharton", "weight": 0.1291, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1291, "runner_up": "Daichi Kamada", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.106, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Jørgen Strand Larsen" ] } ] } } ] }, "Quinten Timber": { "player_id": 959805, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 177, "market_value": 24000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "assist_rate": 0.0584, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.04, "goal_rate": 0.0724, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6838, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 13, 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"totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1019 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0229 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0118 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0083 } ], "others": -0.01, "total": 6.6838, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.1019 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.022919 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018671 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.01177 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.00827 } ], "others_margin": -0.010031 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0245, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4076, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "assists": 0.0485, "assist_rate": 0.0485, "expected_goals": 0.0502, "goals": 0.0601, "goal_rate": 0.0601, "shots_on_target": 0.1137, "total_shots": 0.5375, "rating": 6.6838, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 26.4212, "accurate_pass": 20.0737, "duels_won": 6.0256, "total_long_balls": 1.9801, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9479, "total_own_half_passes": 10.5328, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6051, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.8885, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4686, "crosses_total": 0.3692, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.5688, "possession_lost": 11.346, "dispossessed": 1.524, "duels_lost": 4.9791, "aerial_won": 0.4344, "aerial_lost": 0.9479, "interceptions": 0.62, "tackles_won": 1.2572, "tackles": 2.3702, "clearances": 1.0085, "total_contest": 2.0937, "won_contest": 0.9786, "challenges_lost": 0.1996, "fouls": 1.392, "fouls_drawn": 2.2423, "blocks": 0.1442, "big_chances_created": 0.2348, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0099, "ball_carries": 10.2955, "total_progression": 44.9222, "progressive_carries": 1.6564, "shots_off_target": 0.4238 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0245, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 22.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.491, "expected_assists": 0.0399, "assists": 0.0584, "assist_rate": 0.0584, "expected_goals": 0.0605, "goals": 0.0724, "goal_rate": 0.0724, "shots_on_target": 0.137, "total_shots": 0.6475, "rating": 6.6838, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 31.8269, "accurate_pass": 24.1807, "duels_won": 7.2584, "total_long_balls": 2.3852, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1418, "total_own_half_passes": 12.6878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5703, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6105, "crosses_total": 0.4447, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.6875, "possession_lost": 13.6674, "dispossessed": 1.524, "duels_lost": 5.9978, "aerial_won": 0.5233, "aerial_lost": 0.9479, "interceptions": 0.7469, "tackles_won": 1.5144, "tackles": 2.8551, "clearances": 1.2148, "total_contest": 2.5221, "won_contest": 1.1788, "challenges_lost": 0.1996, "fouls": 1.6768, "fouls_drawn": 2.7011, "blocks": 0.1737, "big_chances_created": 0.2828, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0119, "ball_carries": 12.4019, "total_progression": 54.1132, "progressive_carries": 1.9953, "shots_off_target": 0.5105, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.89, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.2046, "appearance_probability": 0.54 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.491, "expected_assists": 0.0399, "assists": 0.0584, "assist_rate": 0.0584, "expected_goals": 0.0605, "goals": 0.0724, "goal_rate": 0.0724, "shots_on_target": 0.137, "total_shots": 0.6475, "rating": 6.6838, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 31.8269, "accurate_pass": 24.1807, "duels_won": 7.2584, "total_long_balls": 2.3852, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1418, "total_own_half_passes": 12.6878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5703, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6105, "crosses_total": 0.4447, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.6875, "possession_lost": 13.6674, "dispossessed": 1.524, "duels_lost": 5.9978, "aerial_won": 0.5233, "aerial_lost": 0.9479, "interceptions": 0.7469, "tackles_won": 1.5144, "tackles": 2.8551, "clearances": 1.2148, "total_contest": 2.5221, "won_contest": 1.1788, "challenges_lost": 0.1996, "fouls": 1.6768, "fouls_drawn": 2.7011, "blocks": 0.1737, "big_chances_created": 0.2828, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0119, "ball_carries": 12.4019, "total_progression": 54.1132, "progressive_carries": 1.9953, "shots_off_target": 0.5105, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.491, "expected_assists": 0.0399, "assist_rate": 0.0584, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0605, "goal_rate": 0.0724, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.137, "total_shots": 0.6475, "rating": 6.6838, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 31.8269, "accurate_pass": 24.1807, "duels_won": 7.2584, "total_long_balls": 2.3852, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1418, "total_own_half_passes": 12.6878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5703, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6105, "crosses_total": 0.4447, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.6875, "possession_lost": 13.6674, "dispossessed": 1.524, "duels_lost": 5.9978, "aerial_won": 0.5233, "aerial_lost": 0.9479, "interceptions": 0.7469, "tackles_won": 1.5144, "tackles": 2.8551, "clearances": 1.2148, "total_contest": 2.5221, "won_contest": 1.1788, "challenges_lost": 0.1996, "fouls": 1.6768, "fouls_drawn": 2.7011, "blocks": 0.1737, "big_chances_created": 0.2828, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0119, "ball_carries": 12.4019, "total_progression": 54.1132, "progressive_carries": 1.9953, "shots_off_target": 0.5105, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.584, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.36 (squad xG sum 1.1097, xG scale 1.2247, xA scale 1.3679, team xA 0.88 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.491, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "assist_rate": 0.0584, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.04, "goal_rate": 0.0724, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.137, "total_shots": 0.6475, "rating": 6.6838, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 31.8269, "accurate_pass": 24.1807, "duels_won": 7.2584, "total_long_balls": 2.3852, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1418, "total_own_half_passes": 12.6878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5703, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6105, "crosses_total": 0.4447, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.6875, "possession_lost": 13.6674, "dispossessed": 1.524, "duels_lost": 5.9978, "aerial_won": 0.5233, "aerial_lost": 0.9479, "interceptions": 0.7469, "tackles_won": 1.5144, "tackles": 2.8551, "clearances": 1.2148, "total_contest": 2.5221, "won_contest": 1.1788, "challenges_lost": 0.1996, "fouls": 1.6768, "fouls_drawn": 2.7011, "blocks": 0.1737, "big_chances_created": 0.2828, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0079, "ball_carries": 12.4019, "total_progression": 54.1132, "progressive_carries": 1.9953, "shots_off_target": 0.5105, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.584, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1077, "creation_factor": 1.2058 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.359, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1097, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6458, "team_expected_assists": 0.8833, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2247, "xa_scale": 1.3679, "opponent_lambda": 1.422, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.54 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0605, "after": 0.04 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0399, "after": 0.0295 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.491, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "assist_rate": 0.0584, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.04, "goal_rate": 0.0724, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.137, "total_shots": 0.6475, "rating": 6.6838, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 31.8269, "accurate_pass": 24.1807, "duels_won": 7.2584, "total_long_balls": 2.3852, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1418, "total_own_half_passes": 12.6878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5703, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6105, "crosses_total": 0.4447, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.6875, "possession_lost": 13.6674, "dispossessed": 1.524, "duels_lost": 5.9978, "aerial_won": 0.5233, "aerial_lost": 0.9479, "interceptions": 0.7469, "tackles_won": 1.5144, "tackles": 2.8551, "clearances": 1.2148, "total_contest": 2.5221, "won_contest": 1.1788, "challenges_lost": 0.1996, "fouls": 1.6768, "fouls_drawn": 2.7011, "blocks": 0.1737, "big_chances_created": 0.2828, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0079, "ball_carries": 12.4019, "total_progression": 54.1132, "progressive_carries": 1.9953, "shots_off_target": 0.5105, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.584, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1077, "creation_factor": 1.2058, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1488, "fifa_rank": 896.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.491, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "assist_rate": 0.0584, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.04, "goal_rate": 0.0724, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.137, "total_shots": 0.6475, "rating": 6.6838, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 31.8269, "accurate_pass": 24.1807, "duels_won": 7.2584, "total_long_balls": 2.3852, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1418, "total_own_half_passes": 12.6878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5703, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6105, "crosses_total": 0.4447, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.6875, "possession_lost": 13.6674, "dispossessed": 1.524, "duels_lost": 5.9978, "aerial_won": 0.5233, "aerial_lost": 0.9479, "interceptions": 0.7469, "tackles_won": 1.5144, "tackles": 2.8551, "clearances": 1.2148, "total_contest": 2.5221, "won_contest": 1.1788, "challenges_lost": 0.1996, "fouls": 1.6768, "fouls_drawn": 2.7011, "blocks": 0.1737, "big_chances_created": 0.2828, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0079, "ball_carries": 12.4019, "total_progression": 54.1132, "progressive_carries": 1.9953, "shots_off_target": 0.5105, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.584, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0386, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1077, "creation_factor": 1.2058, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0386, "goal_rate": 0.0724, "scorer_weight": 0.0443, "squad_weight_total": 1.3646, "weight_share": 0.0325, "finishing_factor": 1.1077, "appearance_weight": 0.54, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "weight": 0.3538, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3538, "runner_up": "Yéremy Pino", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1801 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.491, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "assist_rate": 0.0584, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.04, "goal_rate": 0.0724, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.137, "total_shots": 0.6475, "rating": 6.6838, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 31.8269, "accurate_pass": 24.1807, "duels_won": 7.2584, "total_long_balls": 2.3852, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1418, "total_own_half_passes": 12.6878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5703, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6105, "crosses_total": 0.4447, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.6875, "possession_lost": 13.6674, "dispossessed": 1.524, "duels_lost": 5.9978, "aerial_won": 0.5233, "aerial_lost": 0.9479, "interceptions": 0.7469, "tackles_won": 1.5144, "tackles": 2.8551, "clearances": 1.2148, "total_contest": 2.5221, "won_contest": 1.1788, "challenges_lost": 0.1996, "fouls": 1.6768, "fouls_drawn": 2.7011, "blocks": 0.1737, "big_chances_created": 0.2828, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0079, "ball_carries": 12.4019, "total_progression": 54.1132, "progressive_carries": 1.9953, "shots_off_target": 0.5105, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.584, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0386, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0287, "finishing_factor": 1.1077, "creation_factor": 1.2058, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0287, "assist_rate": 0.0584, "provider_weight": 0.0356, "squad_weight_total": 0.8034, "weight_share": 0.0443, "creation_factor": 1.2058, "appearance_weight": 0.54, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adam Wharton", "weight": 0.1291, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1291, "runner_up": "Daichi Kamada", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.106, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Jørgen Strand Larsen" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.36, "expected_assists": 0.88, "total_shots": 11, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_passes": 404, "interceptions": 10, "tackles": 23, "avg_rating": 6.8, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.5, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.0 } }, "Liverpool": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Giorgi Mamardashvili": { "player_id": 930997, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 25, "height": 200, "market_value": 29000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0272, "rating": 6.9922, "minutes": 86, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 18, "total_long_balls": 11, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 37, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.402, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 9.1093, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2087, "shots_faced": 12.9, "expected_saves": 3.16, "high_pressure_saves": 1.09, "opponent_faced": "Jørgen Strand Larsen, Dwight McNeil", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": 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"totalClearance", "margin": 0.09484 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.074337 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.017588 } ], "others_margin": 0.094065 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6052693724632263, "model_output": 0.6053, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0417 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0404 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0297 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0246 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0202 } ], "others": 0.0167, "total": 0.6053, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.041727 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.040446 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.029669 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.024573 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.020198 } ], "others_margin": 0.016553 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.137331008911133, "model_output": 7.1373, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0766 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0648 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0578 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0461 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0443 } ], "others": 0.0489, "total": 7.1373, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.076602 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.064805 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.057827 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.04606 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.044258 } ], "others_margin": 0.048997 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 46, "role_matches": 46, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"match_id": 14025241.0, "match_date": "2025-10-19", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0286, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1937, "combined_rank_score": 746.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 605.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.78, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 887.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA 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"name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0618 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.026 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0214 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.014 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0125 } ], "others": -0.0071, "total": 0.567, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.061804 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.026005 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021434 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.013954 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.012523 } ], "others_margin": -0.007077 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.814975261688232, "model_output": 6.815, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.028 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.026 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0088 } ], "others": -0.019, "total": 6.815, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.028049 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.026044 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014745 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01291 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.008827 } ], "others_margin": -0.019073 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 15, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0109, quality 0.650)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0546, "tackles": 2.114, "tackles_won": 1.2458, "clearances": 2.5799, "aerial_won": 1.0187, "total_shots": 0.5732, "rating": 6.815, "minutes": 76.95, "total_pass": 39.1934, "accurate_pass": 32.6611, "duels_won": 4.5816, "total_long_balls": 3.5312, "accurate_long_balls": 0.869, "total_own_half_passes": 14.2031, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7428, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.9903, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9183, "crosses_total": 1.9224, "crosses_accurate": 0.1753, "touches": 65.8553, "possession_lost": 12.6589, "dispossessed": 1.2012, "duels_lost": 5.8504, "aerial_lost": 1.1327, "total_contest": 1.4054, "won_contest": 0.6868, "ball_recovery": 3.5073, "challenges_lost": 1.5615, "fouls": 1.2365, "fouls_drawn": 1.5001, "blocks": 0.2436, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1502, "assist_rate": 0.1502, "expected_goals": 0.0243, "expected_assists": 0.0769, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.321, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.6188, "total_progression": 40.7916, "progressive_carries": 1.9128, "key_pass": 0.3692, "shots_off_target": 0.5732 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 22000000, "quality_factor": 0.6503, "boost_factor": 1.0109, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 15, "history_shrink": 0.25, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0546, "tackles": 2.114, "tackles_won": 1.2458, "clearances": 2.5799, "aerial_won": 1.0187, "total_shots": 0.5732, "rating": 6.815, "minutes": 76.95, "total_pass": 39.1934, "accurate_pass": 32.6611, "duels_won": 4.5816, "total_long_balls": 3.5312, "accurate_long_balls": 0.869, "total_own_half_passes": 14.2031, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7428, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.9903, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9183, "crosses_total": 1.9224, "crosses_accurate": 0.1753, "touches": 65.8553, "possession_lost": 12.6589, "dispossessed": 1.2012, "duels_lost": 5.8504, "aerial_lost": 1.1327, "total_contest": 1.4054, "won_contest": 0.6868, "ball_recovery": 3.5073, "challenges_lost": 1.5615, "fouls": 1.2365, "fouls_drawn": 1.5001, "blocks": 0.2436, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1502, "assist_rate": 0.1502, "expected_goals": 0.0243, "expected_assists": 0.0769, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.321, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.6188, "total_progression": 40.7916, "progressive_carries": 1.9128, "key_pass": 0.3692, "shots_off_target": 0.5732 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0546, "tackles": 2.114, "tackles_won": 1.2458, "clearances": 2.5799, "aerial_won": 1.0187, "total_shots": 0.5732, "rating": 6.815, "minutes": 76.95, "total_pass": 39.1934, "accurate_pass": 32.6611, "duels_won": 4.5816, "total_long_balls": 3.5312, "accurate_long_balls": 0.869, "total_own_half_passes": 14.2031, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7428, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.9903, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9183, "crosses_total": 1.9224, "crosses_accurate": 0.1753, "touches": 65.8553, "possession_lost": 12.6589, "dispossessed": 1.2012, "duels_lost": 5.8504, "aerial_lost": 1.1327, "total_contest": 1.4054, "won_contest": 0.6868, "ball_recovery": 3.5073, "challenges_lost": 1.5615, "fouls": 1.2365, "fouls_drawn": 1.5001, "blocks": 0.2436, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1502, "assist_rate": 0.1502, "expected_goals": 0.0243, "expected_assists": 0.0769, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.321, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.6188, "total_progression": 40.7916, "progressive_carries": 1.9128, "key_pass": 0.3692, "shots_off_target": 0.5732, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.624, "opponent_faced": "Tyrick Mitchell", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Tyrick Mitchell", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0546, "tackles": 2.114, "tackles_won": 1.2458, "clearances": 2.5799, "aerial_won": 1.0187, "total_shots": 0.5732, "rating": 6.815, "minutes": 76.95, "total_pass": 39.1934, "accurate_pass": 32.6611, "duels_won": 4.5816, "total_long_balls": 3.5312, "accurate_long_balls": 0.869, "total_own_half_passes": 14.2031, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7428, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.9903, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9183, "crosses_total": 1.9224, "crosses_accurate": 0.1753, "touches": 65.8553, "possession_lost": 12.6589, "dispossessed": 1.2012, "duels_lost": 5.8504, "aerial_lost": 1.1327, "total_contest": 1.4054, "won_contest": 0.6868, "ball_recovery": 3.5073, "challenges_lost": 1.5615, "fouls": 1.2365, "fouls_drawn": 1.5001, "blocks": 0.2436, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1502, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0243, "expected_assists": 0.0769, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.321, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.6188, "total_progression": 40.7916, "progressive_carries": 1.9128, "key_pass": 0.3692, "shots_off_target": 0.5732, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.624, "opponent_faced": "Tyrick Mitchell", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.42 (squad xG sum 1.4199, xG scale 1.0015, xA scale 1.1218, team xA 0.92 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0546, "tackles": 2.114, "tackles_won": 1.2458, "clearances": 2.5799, "aerial_won": 1.0187, "total_shots": 0.5732, "rating": 6.815, "minutes": 76.95, "total_pass": 39.1934, "accurate_pass": 32.6611, "duels_won": 4.5816, "total_long_balls": 3.5312, "accurate_long_balls": 0.869, "total_own_half_passes": 14.2031, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7428, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.9903, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9183, "crosses_total": 1.9224, "crosses_accurate": 0.1753, "touches": 65.8553, "possession_lost": 12.6589, "dispossessed": 1.2012, "duels_lost": 5.8504, "aerial_lost": 1.1327, "total_contest": 1.4054, "won_contest": 0.6868, "ball_recovery": 3.5073, "challenges_lost": 1.5615, "fouls": 1.2365, "fouls_drawn": 1.5001, "blocks": 0.2436, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1502, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0243, "expected_assists": 0.0863, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.321, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.6188, "total_progression": 40.7916, "progressive_carries": 1.9128, "key_pass": 0.3692, "shots_off_target": 0.5732, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.624, "opponent_faced": "Tyrick Mitchell", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.422, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4199, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8239, "team_expected_assists": 0.9243, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0015, "xa_scale": 1.1218, "opponent_lambda": 1.359, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0769, "after": 0.0863 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0546, "tackles": 2.114, "tackles_won": 1.2458, "clearances": 2.5799, "aerial_won": 1.0187, "total_shots": 0.5732, "rating": 6.815, "minutes": 76.95, "total_pass": 39.1934, "accurate_pass": 32.6611, "duels_won": 4.5816, "total_long_balls": 3.5312, "accurate_long_balls": 0.869, "total_own_half_passes": 14.2031, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7428, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.9903, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9183, "crosses_total": 1.9224, "crosses_accurate": 0.1753, "touches": 65.8553, "possession_lost": 12.6589, "dispossessed": 1.2012, "duels_lost": 5.8504, "aerial_lost": 1.1327, "total_contest": 1.4054, "won_contest": 0.6868, "ball_recovery": 3.5073, "challenges_lost": 1.5615, "fouls": 1.2365, "fouls_drawn": 1.5001, "blocks": 0.2436, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1502, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0243, "expected_assists": 0.0863, 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0546, "tackles": 2.114, "tackles_won": 1.2458, "clearances": 2.5799, "aerial_won": 1.0187, "total_shots": 0.5732, "rating": 6.815, "minutes": 76.95, "total_pass": 39.1934, "accurate_pass": 32.6611, "duels_won": 4.5816, "total_long_balls": 3.5312, "accurate_long_balls": 0.869, "total_own_half_passes": 14.2031, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.7428, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.9903, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9183, "crosses_total": 1.9224, "crosses_accurate": 0.1753, "touches": 65.8553, "possession_lost": 12.6589, "dispossessed": 1.2012, "duels_lost": 5.8504, "aerial_lost": 1.1327, "total_contest": 1.4054, "won_contest": 0.6868, "ball_recovery": 3.5073, "challenges_lost": 1.5615, "fouls": 1.2365, 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"matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.024, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0827, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0827, "assist_rate": 0.1502, "provider_weight": 0.1079, "squad_weight_total": 0.8798, "weight_share": 0.1226, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Florian Wirtz", "weight": 0.1725, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1725, "runner_up": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1704, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Alexander Isak" ] } ] } } ] }, "Miloš Kerkez": { "player_id": 1097425, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 180, "market_value": 36000000, 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"others_margin": -0.001502 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 34, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0081, quality 0.758)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7976, "tackles": 1.587, "tackles_won": 1.0079, "clearances": 2.6261, "aerial_won": 1.0003, "total_shots": 0.3729, "rating": 6.736, "minutes": 86.22, "total_pass": 37.6189, "accurate_pass": 29.4405, "duels_won": 4.6878, "total_long_balls": 3.6346, "accurate_long_balls": 1.072, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0618, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.5371, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5571, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9034, "crosses_total": 2.0434, "crosses_accurate": 0.2858, "touches": 58.8793, "possession_lost": 14.4894, "dispossessed": 0.3332, "duels_lost": 3.5292, "aerial_lost": 1.0074, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3736, "ball_recovery": 3.3832, "challenges_lost": 0.2416, "fouls": 1.5498, "fouls_drawn": 1.7578, "blocks": 0.351, "goals": 0.0381, "goal_rate": 0.0381, "assists": 0.0156, "assist_rate": 0.0156, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "expected_assists": 0.0179, "shots_on_target": 0.0951, "big_chances_created": 0.0194, "xgot": 0.0123, "ball_carries": 10.3593, "total_progression": 40.5912, "progressive_carries": 1.101, "key_pass": 0.6284, "shots_off_target": 0.2778 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 36000000, "quality_factor": 0.7581, "boost_factor": 1.0081, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7976, "tackles": 1.587, "tackles_won": 1.0079, "clearances": 2.6261, "aerial_won": 1.0003, "total_shots": 0.3729, "rating": 6.736, "minutes": 86.22, "total_pass": 37.6189, "accurate_pass": 29.4405, "duels_won": 4.6878, "total_long_balls": 3.6346, "accurate_long_balls": 1.072, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0618, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.5371, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5571, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9034, "crosses_total": 2.0434, "crosses_accurate": 0.2858, "touches": 58.8793, "possession_lost": 14.4894, "dispossessed": 0.3332, "duels_lost": 3.5292, "aerial_lost": 1.0074, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3736, "ball_recovery": 3.3832, "challenges_lost": 0.2416, "fouls": 1.5498, "fouls_drawn": 1.7578, "blocks": 0.351, "goals": 0.0381, "goal_rate": 0.0381, "assists": 0.0156, "assist_rate": 0.0156, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "expected_assists": 0.0179, "shots_on_target": 0.0951, "big_chances_created": 0.0194, "xgot": 0.0123, "ball_carries": 10.3593, "total_progression": 40.5912, "progressive_carries": 1.101, "key_pass": 0.6284, "shots_off_target": 0.2778 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7976, "tackles": 1.587, "tackles_won": 1.0079, "clearances": 2.6261, "aerial_won": 1.0003, "total_shots": 0.3729, "rating": 6.736, "minutes": 86.22, "total_pass": 37.6189, "accurate_pass": 29.4405, "duels_won": 4.6878, "total_long_balls": 3.6346, "accurate_long_balls": 1.072, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0618, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.5371, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5571, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9034, "crosses_total": 2.0434, "crosses_accurate": 0.2858, "touches": 58.8793, "possession_lost": 14.4894, "dispossessed": 0.3332, "duels_lost": 3.5292, "aerial_lost": 1.0074, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3736, "ball_recovery": 3.3832, "challenges_lost": 0.2416, "fouls": 1.5498, "fouls_drawn": 1.7578, "blocks": 0.351, "goals": 0.0381, "goal_rate": 0.0381, "assists": 0.0156, "assist_rate": 0.0156, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "expected_assists": 0.0179, "shots_on_target": 0.0951, "big_chances_created": 0.0194, "xgot": 0.0123, "ball_carries": 10.3593, "total_progression": 40.5912, "progressive_carries": 1.101, "key_pass": 0.6284, "shots_off_target": 0.2778, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.698, "opponent_faced": "Daichi Kamada", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Daichi Kamada", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7976, "tackles": 1.587, "tackles_won": 1.0079, "clearances": 2.6261, "aerial_won": 1.0003, "total_shots": 0.3729, "rating": 6.736, "minutes": 86.22, "total_pass": 37.6189, "accurate_pass": 29.4405, "duels_won": 4.6878, "total_long_balls": 3.6346, "accurate_long_balls": 1.072, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0618, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.5371, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5571, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9034, "crosses_total": 2.0434, "crosses_accurate": 0.2858, "touches": 58.8793, "possession_lost": 14.4894, "dispossessed": 0.3332, "duels_lost": 3.5292, "aerial_lost": 1.0074, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3736, "ball_recovery": 3.3832, "challenges_lost": 0.2416, "fouls": 1.5498, "fouls_drawn": 1.7578, "blocks": 0.351, "goal_rate": 0.0381, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0156, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "expected_assists": 0.0179, "shots_on_target": 0.0951, "big_chances_created": 0.0194, "xgot": 0.0123, "ball_carries": 10.3593, "total_progression": 40.5912, "progressive_carries": 1.101, "key_pass": 0.6284, "shots_off_target": 0.2778, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.698, "opponent_faced": "Daichi Kamada", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.42 (squad xG sum 1.4199, xG scale 1.0015, xA scale 1.1218, team xA 0.92 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7976, "tackles": 1.587, "tackles_won": 1.0079, "clearances": 2.6261, "aerial_won": 1.0003, "total_shots": 0.3729, "rating": 6.736, "minutes": 86.22, "total_pass": 37.6189, "accurate_pass": 29.4405, "duels_won": 4.6878, "total_long_balls": 3.6346, "accurate_long_balls": 1.072, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0618, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.5371, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5571, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9034, "crosses_total": 2.0434, "crosses_accurate": 0.2858, "touches": 58.8793, "possession_lost": 14.4894, "dispossessed": 0.3332, "duels_lost": 3.5292, "aerial_lost": 1.0074, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3736, "ball_recovery": 3.3832, "challenges_lost": 0.2416, "fouls": 1.5498, "fouls_drawn": 1.7578, "blocks": 0.351, "goal_rate": 0.0381, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0156, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "shots_on_target": 0.0951, "big_chances_created": 0.0194, "xgot": 0.0123, "ball_carries": 10.3593, "total_progression": 40.5912, "progressive_carries": 1.101, "key_pass": 0.6284, "shots_off_target": 0.2778, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.698, "opponent_faced": "Daichi Kamada", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1486, "creation_factor": 0.9661 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.422, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4199, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8239, "team_expected_assists": 0.9243, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0015, "xa_scale": 1.1218, "opponent_lambda": 1.359, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7976, "tackles": 1.587, "tackles_won": 1.0079, "clearances": 2.6261, "aerial_won": 1.0003, "total_shots": 0.3729, "rating": 6.736, "minutes": 86.22, "total_pass": 37.6189, "accurate_pass": 29.4405, "duels_won": 4.6878, "total_long_balls": 3.6346, "accurate_long_balls": 1.072, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0618, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.5371, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5571, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9034, "crosses_total": 2.0434, "crosses_accurate": 0.2858, "touches": 58.8793, "possession_lost": 14.4894, "dispossessed": 0.3332, "duels_lost": 3.5292, "aerial_lost": 1.0074, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3736, "ball_recovery": 3.3832, "challenges_lost": 0.2416, "fouls": 1.5498, "fouls_drawn": 1.7578, "blocks": 0.351, "goal_rate": 0.0381, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0156, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "expected_assists": 0.0201, 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"fifa_rank": 524.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7976, "tackles": 1.587, "tackles_won": 1.0079, "clearances": 2.6261, "aerial_won": 1.0003, "total_shots": 0.3729, "rating": 6.736, "minutes": 86.22, "total_pass": 37.6189, "accurate_pass": 29.4405, "duels_won": 4.6878, "total_long_balls": 3.6346, "accurate_long_balls": 1.072, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0618, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.5371, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5571, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9034, "crosses_total": 2.0434, "crosses_accurate": 0.2858, "touches": 58.8793, "possession_lost": 14.4894, "dispossessed": 0.3332, "duels_lost": 3.5292, "aerial_lost": 1.0074, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3736, "ball_recovery": 3.3832, "challenges_lost": 0.2416, "fouls": 1.5498, "fouls_drawn": 1.7578, "blocks": 0.351, "goal_rate": 0.0381, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0156, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "shots_on_target": 0.0951, "big_chances_created": 0.0194, "xgot": 0.0123, "ball_carries": 10.3593, "total_progression": 40.5912, "progressive_carries": 1.101, "key_pass": 0.6284, "shots_off_target": 0.2778, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.698, "opponent_faced": "Daichi Kamada", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0263, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1486, "creation_factor": 0.9661, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0263, "goal_rate": 0.0381, "scorer_weight": 0.0307, "squad_weight_total": 1.5473, "weight_share": 0.0198, "finishing_factor": 1.1486, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alexander Isak", "weight": 0.5916, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5916, "runner_up": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1966 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7976, "tackles": 1.587, "tackles_won": 1.0079, "clearances": 2.6261, "aerial_won": 1.0003, "total_shots": 0.3729, "rating": 6.736, "minutes": 86.22, "total_pass": 37.6189, "accurate_pass": 29.4405, "duels_won": 4.6878, "total_long_balls": 3.6346, "accurate_long_balls": 1.072, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0618, 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.309433 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.171373 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.118481 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.042742 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.03834 } ], "others_margin": 0.059625 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.8286806344985962, "model_output": 1.8287, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.533 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1644 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0777 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0606 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0548 } ], "others": -0.0467, "total": 1.8287, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.53301 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.164428 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.077725 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.060631 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.054824 } ], "others_margin": -0.046874 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.124325752258301, "model_output": 7.1243, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0756 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0692 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0286 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0219 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0175 } ], "others": 0.0541, "total": 7.1243, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.075619 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.069192 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.028638 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.021862 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.017479 } ], "others_margin": 0.054133 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 42, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0123, quality 0.890)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.1237, "expected_assists": 0.1899, "assists": 0.1244, "assist_rate": 0.1244, "expected_goals": 0.1758, "goals": 0.1883, "goal_rate": 0.1883, "shots_on_target": 0.6192, "total_shots": 1.8512, "rating": 7.1243, "minutes": 80.39, "total_pass": 52.5751, "accurate_pass": 45.6836, "duels_won": 2.8835, "total_long_balls": 4.5711, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1581, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4958, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0816, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.0793, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.602, "crosses_total": 5.7488, "crosses_accurate": 1.7446, "touches": 73.0185, "possession_lost": 13.7066, "dispossessed": 0.8667, "duels_lost": 4.9693, "aerial_won": 0.6485, "aerial_lost": 1.1678, "interceptions": 0.7326, "tackles_won": 0.5442, "tackles": 1.3386, "clearances": 1.2345, "total_contest": 0.8527, "won_contest": 0.335, "challenges_lost": 0.802, "fouls": 1.615, "fouls_drawn": 0.5616, "blocks": 0.2615, "big_chances_created": 0.7507, "big_chances_missed": 0.0703, "xgot": 0.2487, "ball_carries": 17.9173, "total_progression": 77.6213, "progressive_carries": 1.7586, "shots_off_target": 1.232 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 91000000, "quality_factor": 0.8895, "boost_factor": 1.0123, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.1237, "expected_assists": 0.1899, "assists": 0.1244, "assist_rate": 0.1244, "expected_goals": 0.1758, "goals": 0.1883, "goal_rate": 0.1883, "shots_on_target": 0.6192, "total_shots": 1.8512, "rating": 7.1243, "minutes": 80.39, "total_pass": 52.5751, "accurate_pass": 45.6836, "duels_won": 2.8835, "total_long_balls": 4.5711, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1581, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4958, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0816, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.0793, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.602, "crosses_total": 5.7488, "crosses_accurate": 1.7446, "touches": 73.0185, "possession_lost": 13.7066, "dispossessed": 0.8667, "duels_lost": 4.9693, "aerial_won": 0.6485, "aerial_lost": 1.1678, "interceptions": 0.7326, "tackles_won": 0.5442, "tackles": 1.3386, "clearances": 1.2345, "total_contest": 0.8527, "won_contest": 0.335, "challenges_lost": 0.802, "fouls": 1.615, "fouls_drawn": 0.5616, "blocks": 0.2615, "big_chances_created": 0.7507, "big_chances_missed": 0.0703, "xgot": 0.2487, "ball_carries": 17.9173, "total_progression": 77.6213, "progressive_carries": 1.7586, "shots_off_target": 1.232 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.1237, "expected_assists": 0.1899, "assists": 0.1244, "assist_rate": 0.1244, "expected_goals": 0.1859, "goals": 0.1991, "goal_rate": 0.1991, "shots_on_target": 0.6547, "total_shots": 1.9573, "rating": 7.1243, "minutes": 80.39, "total_pass": 52.5751, "accurate_pass": 45.6836, "duels_won": 2.8835, "total_long_balls": 4.5711, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1581, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4958, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0816, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.0793, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.602, "crosses_total": 5.7488, "crosses_accurate": 1.7446, "touches": 73.0185, "possession_lost": 13.7066, "dispossessed": 0.8667, "duels_lost": 4.9693, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 1.1678, "interceptions": 0.7326, "tackles_won": 0.5442, "tackles": 1.3386, "clearances": 1.2345, "total_contest": 0.8527, "won_contest": 0.335, "challenges_lost": 0.802, "fouls": 1.615, "fouls_drawn": 0.5616, "blocks": 0.2615, "big_chances_created": 0.7507, "big_chances_missed": 0.0743, "xgot": 0.263, "ball_carries": 17.9173, "total_progression": 77.6213, "progressive_carries": 1.7586, "shots_off_target": 1.3026, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0573, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.459, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jaydee Canvot", "opponent_faced": "Jaydee Canvot", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jaydee Canvot", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "duel_win_rate": 0.459, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0573, "skill_edge": 0.0429, "height_edge": -0.004, "attacker_skill": 0.8895, "defender_skill": 0.7941, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Jaydee Canvot", "market_value": 32000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.7941 } ], "xg_override": 0.1859 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.6485, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.8512, "after": 1.9573 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.232, "after": 1.3026 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6192, "after": 0.6547 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2487, "after": 0.263 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1883, "after": 0.1991 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1758, "after": 0.1859 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.1237, "expected_assists": 0.1899, "assist_rate": 0.1244, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1859, "goal_rate": 0.1991, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6547, "total_shots": 1.9573, "rating": 7.1243, "minutes": 80.39, "total_pass": 52.5751, "accurate_pass": 45.6836, "duels_won": 2.8835, "total_long_balls": 4.5711, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1581, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4958, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0816, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.0793, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.602, "crosses_total": 5.7488, "crosses_accurate": 1.7446, "touches": 73.0185, "possession_lost": 13.7066, "dispossessed": 0.8667, "duels_lost": 4.9693, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 1.1678, "interceptions": 0.7326, "tackles_won": 0.5442, "tackles": 1.3386, "clearances": 1.2345, "total_contest": 0.8527, "won_contest": 0.335, "challenges_lost": 0.802, "fouls": 1.615, "fouls_drawn": 0.5616, "blocks": 0.2615, "big_chances_created": 0.7507, "big_chances_missed": 0.0743, "xgot": 0.263, "ball_carries": 17.9173, "total_progression": 77.6213, "progressive_carries": 1.7586, "shots_off_target": 1.3026, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0573, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.459, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jaydee Canvot", "opponent_faced": "Jaydee Canvot", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.42 (squad xG sum 1.4199, xG scale 1.0015, xA scale 1.1218, team xA 0.92 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.1237, "expected_assists": 0.213, "assist_rate": 0.1244, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1862, "goal_rate": 0.1991, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6547, "total_shots": 1.9573, "rating": 7.1243, "minutes": 80.39, "total_pass": 52.5751, "accurate_pass": 45.6836, "duels_won": 2.8835, "total_long_balls": 4.5711, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1581, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4958, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0816, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.0793, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.602, "crosses_total": 5.7488, "crosses_accurate": 1.7446, "touches": 73.0185, "possession_lost": 13.7066, "dispossessed": 0.8667, "duels_lost": 4.9693, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 1.1678, "interceptions": 0.7326, "tackles_won": 0.5442, "tackles": 1.3386, "clearances": 1.2345, "total_contest": 0.8527, "won_contest": 0.335, "challenges_lost": 0.802, "fouls": 1.615, "fouls_drawn": 0.5616, "blocks": 0.2615, "big_chances_created": 0.7507, "big_chances_missed": 0.0743, "xgot": 0.2634, "ball_carries": 17.9173, "total_progression": 77.6213, "progressive_carries": 1.7586, "shots_off_target": 1.3026, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0573, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.459, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jaydee Canvot", "opponent_faced": "Jaydee Canvot", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.056, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.422, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4199, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8239, "team_expected_assists": 0.9243, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0015, "xa_scale": 1.1218, "opponent_lambda": 1.359, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1899, "after": 0.213 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.1237, "expected_assists": 0.213, "assist_rate": 0.1244, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1862, "goal_rate": 0.1991, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6547, "total_shots": 1.9573, "rating": 7.1243, "minutes": 80.39, "total_pass": 52.5751, "accurate_pass": 45.6836, "duels_won": 2.8835, "total_long_balls": 4.5711, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1581, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4958, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0816, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.0793, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.602, "crosses_total": 5.7488, "crosses_accurate": 1.7446, "touches": 73.0185, "possession_lost": 13.7066, "dispossessed": 0.8667, "duels_lost": 4.9693, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 1.1678, "interceptions": 0.7326, "tackles_won": 0.5442, "tackles": 1.3386, "clearances": 1.2345, "total_contest": 0.8527, "won_contest": 0.335, "challenges_lost": 0.802, "fouls": 1.615, "fouls_drawn": 0.5616, "blocks": 0.2615, "big_chances_created": 0.7507, "big_chances_missed": 0.0743, "xgot": 0.2634, "ball_carries": 17.9173, "total_progression": 77.6213, "progressive_carries": 1.7586, "shots_off_target": 1.3026, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0573, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.459, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jaydee Canvot", "opponent_faced": "Jaydee Canvot", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.056, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 78, "fifa_rank": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.1237, "expected_assists": 0.213, "assist_rate": 0.1244, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1862, "goal_rate": 0.1991, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6547, "total_shots": 1.9573, "rating": 7.1243, "minutes": 80.39, "total_pass": 52.5751, "accurate_pass": 45.6836, "duels_won": 2.8835, "total_long_balls": 4.5711, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1581, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4958, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0816, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.0793, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.602, "crosses_total": 5.7488, "crosses_accurate": 1.7446, "touches": 73.0185, "possession_lost": 13.7066, "dispossessed": 0.8667, "duels_lost": 4.9693, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 1.1678, "interceptions": 0.7326, "tackles_won": 0.5442, "tackles": 1.3386, "clearances": 1.2345, "total_contest": 0.8527, "won_contest": 0.335, "challenges_lost": 0.802, "fouls": 1.615, "fouls_drawn": 0.5616, "blocks": 0.2615, "big_chances_created": 0.7507, "big_chances_missed": 0.0743, "xgot": 0.2634, "ball_carries": 17.9173, "total_progression": 77.6213, "progressive_carries": 1.7586, "shots_off_target": 1.3026, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0573, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.459, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jaydee Canvot", "opponent_faced": "Jaydee Canvot", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1699, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.056, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1699, "goal_rate": 0.1991, 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"top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.089 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0616 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0651 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0349 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0196 } ], "others": 0.0117, "total": 0.5998, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.24688 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.14097 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.130079 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.063362 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.033885 } ], "others_margin": 0.019674 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.7156310081481934, "model_output": 1.7156, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.4176 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1449 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0681 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0383 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0319 } ], "others": 0.0299, "total": 1.7156, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.417569 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.14492 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.068076 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.038318 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.031918 } ], "others_margin": 0.029895 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.008438587188721, "model_output": 7.0084, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0859 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0372 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0315 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0211 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0139 } ], "others": 0.0244, "total": 7.0084, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.085902 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.037242 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.031506 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.021141 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.013934 } ], "others_margin": 0.024322 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 35, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0123, quality 0.883)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.1212, "expected_assists": 0.1688, "assists": 0.1493, "assist_rate": 0.1493, "expected_goals": 0.1655, "goals": 0.1634, "goal_rate": 0.1634, "shots_on_target": 0.6071, "total_shots": 1.7368, "rating": 7.0084, "minutes": 79.26, "total_pass": 45.747, "accurate_pass": 37.0474, "duels_won": 3.4273, "total_long_balls": 2.9936, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5326, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1267, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.5653, "total_opp_half_passes": 34.6203, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.4821, "crosses_total": 1.9423, "crosses_accurate": 0.5288, "touches": 62.6549, "possession_lost": 16.433, "dispossessed": 1.2486, "duels_lost": 5.7382, "aerial_won": 0.3131, "aerial_lost": 0.9963, "interceptions": 0.3478, "tackles_won": 0.7528, "tackles": 1.3661, "clearances": 0.4043, "total_contest": 2.4415, "won_contest": 0.9694, "challenges_lost": 0.4007, "fouls": 1.6631, "fouls_drawn": 0.7789, "blocks": 0.0368, "big_chances_created": 0.0555, "big_chances_missed": 0.064, "xgot": 0.0884, "ball_carries": 14.5887, "total_progression": 42.1271, "progressive_carries": 1.7395, "shots_off_target": 1.1296 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 81000000, "quality_factor": 0.8829, "boost_factor": 1.0123, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.1212, "expected_assists": 0.1688, "assists": 0.1493, "assist_rate": 0.1493, "expected_goals": 0.1655, "goals": 0.1634, "goal_rate": 0.1634, "shots_on_target": 0.6071, "total_shots": 1.7368, "rating": 7.0084, "minutes": 79.26, "total_pass": 45.747, "accurate_pass": 37.0474, "duels_won": 3.4273, "total_long_balls": 2.9936, 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"expected_assists": 0.1688, "assists": 0.1493, "assist_rate": 0.1493, "expected_goals": 0.1585, "goals": 0.1565, "goal_rate": 0.1565, "shots_on_target": 0.5815, "total_shots": 1.6635, "rating": 7.0084, "minutes": 79.26, "total_pass": 45.747, "accurate_pass": 37.0474, "duels_won": 3.4273, "total_long_balls": 2.9936, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5326, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1267, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.5653, "total_opp_half_passes": 34.6203, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.4821, "crosses_total": 1.9423, "crosses_accurate": 0.5288, "touches": 62.6549, "possession_lost": 16.433, "dispossessed": 1.2486, "duels_lost": 5.7382, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.9963, "interceptions": 0.3478, "tackles_won": 0.7528, "tackles": 1.3661, "clearances": 0.4043, "total_contest": 2.4415, "won_contest": 0.9694, "challenges_lost": 0.4007, "fouls": 1.6631, "fouls_drawn": 0.7789, "blocks": 0.0368, "big_chances_created": 0.0555, "big_chances_missed": 0.0613, "xgot": 0.0847, "ball_carries": 14.5887, 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0.1585 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.3131, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.7368, "after": 1.6635 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.1296, "after": 1.0819 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6071, "after": 0.5815 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1655, "after": 0.1585 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1634, "after": 0.1565 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.1212, "expected_assists": 0.1688, "assist_rate": 0.1493, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1585, "goal_rate": 0.1565, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5815, "total_shots": 1.6635, "rating": 7.0084, "minutes": 79.26, "total_pass": 45.747, "accurate_pass": 37.0474, "duels_won": 3.4273, "total_long_balls": 2.9936, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5326, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1267, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.5653, "total_opp_half_passes": 34.6203, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.4821, "crosses_total": 1.9423, "crosses_accurate": 0.5288, "touches": 62.6549, "possession_lost": 16.433, "dispossessed": 1.2486, "duels_lost": 5.7382, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.9963, "interceptions": 0.3478, "tackles_won": 0.7528, "tackles": 1.3661, "clearances": 0.4043, "total_contest": 2.4415, "won_contest": 0.9694, "challenges_lost": 0.4007, "fouls": 1.6631, "fouls_drawn": 0.7789, "blocks": 0.0368, "big_chances_created": 0.0555, "big_chances_missed": 0.0613, "xgot": 0.0847, "ball_carries": 14.5887, "total_progression": 42.1271, "progressive_carries": 1.7395, "shots_off_target": 1.0819, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9578, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.391, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Adam Wharton", "opponent_faced": "Adam Wharton", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.42 (squad xG sum 1.4199, xG scale 1.0015, xA scale 1.1218, team xA 0.92 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.1212, "expected_assists": 0.1894, "assist_rate": 0.1493, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1587, "goal_rate": 0.1565, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5815, "total_shots": 1.6635, "rating": 7.0084, "minutes": 79.26, "total_pass": 45.747, "accurate_pass": 37.0474, "duels_won": 3.4273, "total_long_balls": 2.9936, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5326, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1267, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.5653, "total_opp_half_passes": 34.6203, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.4821, "crosses_total": 1.9423, "crosses_accurate": 0.5288, "touches": 62.6549, "possession_lost": 16.433, "dispossessed": 1.2486, "duels_lost": 5.7382, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.9963, "interceptions": 0.3478, "tackles_won": 0.7528, "tackles": 1.3661, "clearances": 0.4043, "total_contest": 2.4415, "won_contest": 0.9694, "challenges_lost": 0.4007, "fouls": 1.6631, "fouls_drawn": 0.7789, "blocks": 0.0368, "big_chances_created": 0.0555, "big_chances_missed": 0.0613, "xgot": 0.0848, "ball_carries": 14.5887, "total_progression": 42.1271, "progressive_carries": 1.7395, "shots_off_target": 1.0819, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9578, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.391, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Adam Wharton", "opponent_faced": "Adam Wharton", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9904, "creation_factor": 0.9109 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.422, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4199, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8239, "team_expected_assists": 0.9243, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0015, "xa_scale": 1.1218, "opponent_lambda": 1.359, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1688, "after": 0.1894 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.097457 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.034955 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.019566 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.019085 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.018525 } ], "others_margin": 0.017311 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 45, "role_matches": 37, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0112, quality 0.879)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1861, "expected_assists": 0.1153, "assists": 0.0876, "assist_rate": 0.0876, "expected_goals": 0.1373, "goals": 0.1418, "goal_rate": 0.1418, "shots_on_target": 0.5382, "total_shots": 1.6246, "rating": 7.0643, "minutes": 88.12, "total_pass": 51.0533, "accurate_pass": 43.1038, "duels_won": 4.1738, "total_long_balls": 4.8089, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6124, "total_own_half_passes": 18.4508, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.6865, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.6025, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.4173, "crosses_total": 1.1751, "crosses_accurate": 0.156, "touches": 65.5531, "possession_lost": 11.4739, "dispossessed": 0.6274, "duels_lost": 4.3397, "aerial_won": 0.9007, "aerial_lost": 0.8613, "interceptions": 0.3392, "tackles_won": 1.1576, "tackles": 1.9084, "clearances": 1.6499, "total_contest": 1.2756, "won_contest": 0.7131, "challenges_lost": 1.0156, "fouls": 1.2924, "fouls_drawn": 0.7451, "blocks": 0.4491, "big_chances_created": 0.0664, "big_chances_missed": 0.0035, "xgot": 0.0719, "ball_carries": 15.5411, "total_progression": 42.8649, "progressive_carries": 0.5762, "shots_off_target": 1.0864 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 77000000, "quality_factor": 0.8792, "boost_factor": 1.0112, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 45, "history_shrink": 0.1, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1861, "expected_assists": 0.1153, "assists": 0.0876, "assist_rate": 0.0876, "expected_goals": 0.1373, "goals": 0.1418, "goal_rate": 0.1418, "shots_on_target": 0.5382, "total_shots": 1.6246, "rating": 7.0643, "minutes": 88.12, "total_pass": 51.0533, "accurate_pass": 43.1038, "duels_won": 4.1738, "total_long_balls": 4.8089, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6124, "total_own_half_passes": 18.4508, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.6865, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.6025, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.4173, "crosses_total": 1.1751, "crosses_accurate": 0.156, "touches": 65.5531, "possession_lost": 11.4739, "dispossessed": 0.6274, "duels_lost": 4.3397, "aerial_won": 0.9007, "aerial_lost": 0.8613, "interceptions": 0.3392, "tackles_won": 1.1576, "tackles": 1.9084, "clearances": 1.6499, "total_contest": 1.2756, "won_contest": 0.7131, "challenges_lost": 1.0156, "fouls": 1.2924, "fouls_drawn": 0.7451, "blocks": 0.4491, "big_chances_created": 0.0664, "big_chances_missed": 0.0035, "xgot": 0.0719, "ball_carries": 15.5411, "total_progression": 42.8649, "progressive_carries": 0.5762, "shots_off_target": 1.0864 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1861, "expected_assists": 0.1153, "assists": 0.0876, "assist_rate": 0.0876, "expected_goals": 0.1373, "goals": 0.1418, "goal_rate": 0.1418, "shots_on_target": 0.5382, "total_shots": 1.6246, "rating": 7.0643, "minutes": 88.12, "total_pass": 51.0533, "accurate_pass": 43.1038, "duels_won": 4.1738, "total_long_balls": 4.8089, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6124, "total_own_half_passes": 18.4508, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.6865, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.6025, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.4173, "crosses_total": 1.1751, "crosses_accurate": 0.156, "touches": 65.5531, "possession_lost": 11.4739, "dispossessed": 0.6274, "duels_lost": 4.3397, "aerial_won": 0.9007, "aerial_lost": 0.8613, "interceptions": 0.3392, "tackles_won": 1.1576, "tackles": 1.9084, "clearances": 1.6499, "total_contest": 1.2756, "won_contest": 0.7131, "challenges_lost": 1.0156, "fouls": 1.2924, "fouls_drawn": 0.7451, "blocks": 0.4491, "big_chances_created": 0.0664, "big_chances_missed": 0.0035, "xgot": 0.0719, "ball_carries": 15.5411, "total_progression": 42.8649, "progressive_carries": 0.5762, "shots_off_target": 1.0864, "opponent_faced": "Yéremy Pino, Dwight McNeil, Adam Wharton", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Yéremy Pino, Dwight McNeil, Adam Wharton", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; 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"season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 162, "combined_rank_score": 142.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 143.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3333, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 142.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8526, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ryan Gravenberch", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Do-dam Kim", "ranking": 157 }, { "player_name": "Nuno Mendes", "ranking": 158 }, { "player_name": "Temurkhuja Abdukholikov", "ranking": 159 }, { "player_name": "Aymeric Laporte", "ranking": 160 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Castro", "ranking": 161 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jhon Arias", "ranking": 163 }, { "player_name": "Oleksiy Gutsulyak", "ranking": 164 }, { "player_name": "Igor Vujačić", "ranking": 165 }, { "player_name": "César Montes", "ranking": 166 }, { "player_name": "Reis", "ranking": 167 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 43, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", 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"name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.185881 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.137024 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.07509 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.065344 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.022546 } ], "others_margin": -0.041419 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0031731128692627, "model_output": 1.0032, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1446 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0758 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0621 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0591 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0194 } ], "others": -0.0281, "total": 1.0032, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.144612 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.075789 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.06211 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.059103 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.019401 } ], "others_margin": -0.028177 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.852569580078125, "model_output": 6.8526, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0338 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0074 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0056 } ], "others": -0.0148, "total": 6.8526, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.033806 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.0137 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.011859 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.007415 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.005573 } ], "others_margin": -0.014925 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0118, quality 0.883)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6974, "expected_assists": 0.0445, "assists": 0.0757, "assist_rate": 0.0757, "expected_goals": 0.0681, "goals": 0.0742, "goal_rate": 0.0742, "shots_on_target": 0.2845, "total_shots": 1.015, "rating": 6.8526, "minutes": 78.94, "total_pass": 37.5449, "accurate_pass": 31.7221, "duels_won": 5.2274, "total_long_balls": 1.789, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9672, "total_own_half_passes": 13.7772, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0341, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7677, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.6879, "crosses_total": 0.1646, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.5427, "possession_lost": 10.178, "dispossessed": 1.1932, "duels_lost": 4.0802, "aerial_won": 1.0941, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 1.5457, "tackles_won": 1.0177, "tackles": 1.7669, "clearances": 1.7089, "total_contest": 1.7242, "won_contest": 1.2466, "challenges_lost": 0.7113, "fouls": 1.4229, "fouls_drawn": 1.1199, "blocks": 0.2898, "big_chances_created": 0.0157, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0521, "ball_carries": 15.172, "total_progression": 69.898, "progressive_carries": 1.6251, "shots_off_target": 0.7305 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 81000000, "quality_factor": 0.8829, "boost_factor": 1.0118, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6974, "expected_assists": 0.0445, "assists": 0.0757, "assist_rate": 0.0757, "expected_goals": 0.0681, "goals": 0.0742, "goal_rate": 0.0742, "shots_on_target": 0.2845, "total_shots": 1.015, "rating": 6.8526, "minutes": 78.94, "total_pass": 37.5449, "accurate_pass": 31.7221, "duels_won": 5.2274, "total_long_balls": 1.789, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9672, "total_own_half_passes": 13.7772, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0341, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7677, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.6879, "crosses_total": 0.1646, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.5427, "possession_lost": 10.178, "dispossessed": 1.1932, "duels_lost": 4.0802, "aerial_won": 1.0941, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 1.5457, "tackles_won": 1.0177, "tackles": 1.7669, "clearances": 1.7089, "total_contest": 1.7242, "won_contest": 1.2466, "challenges_lost": 0.7113, "fouls": 1.4229, "fouls_drawn": 1.1199, "blocks": 0.2898, "big_chances_created": 0.0157, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0521, "ball_carries": 15.172, "total_progression": 69.898, "progressive_carries": 1.6251, "shots_off_target": 0.7305 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6974, "expected_assists": 0.0445, "assists": 0.0757, "assist_rate": 0.0757, "expected_goals": 0.0681, "goals": 0.0742, "goal_rate": 0.0742, "shots_on_target": 0.2845, "total_shots": 1.015, "rating": 6.8526, "minutes": 78.94, "total_pass": 37.5449, "accurate_pass": 31.7221, "duels_won": 5.2274, "total_long_balls": 1.789, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9672, "total_own_half_passes": 13.7772, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0341, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7677, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.6879, "crosses_total": 0.1646, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.5427, "possession_lost": 10.178, "dispossessed": 1.1932, "duels_lost": 4.0802, "aerial_won": 1.0941, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 1.5457, "tackles_won": 1.0177, "tackles": 1.7669, "clearances": 1.7089, "total_contest": 1.7242, "won_contest": 1.2466, "challenges_lost": 0.7113, "fouls": 1.4229, "fouls_drawn": 1.1199, "blocks": 0.2898, "big_chances_created": 0.0157, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0521, "ball_carries": 15.172, "total_progression": 69.898, "progressive_carries": 1.6251, "shots_off_target": 0.7305, "opponent_faced": "Daichi Kamada", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Daichi Kamada", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6974, "expected_assists": 0.0445, "assist_rate": 0.0757, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0681, "goal_rate": 0.0742, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2845, "total_shots": 1.015, "rating": 6.8526, "minutes": 78.94, "total_pass": 37.5449, "accurate_pass": 31.7221, "duels_won": 5.2274, "total_long_balls": 1.789, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9672, "total_own_half_passes": 13.7772, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0341, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7677, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.6879, "crosses_total": 0.1646, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.5427, "possession_lost": 10.178, "dispossessed": 1.1932, "duels_lost": 4.0802, "aerial_won": 1.0941, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 1.5457, "tackles_won": 1.0177, "tackles": 1.7669, "clearances": 1.7089, "total_contest": 1.7242, "won_contest": 1.2466, "challenges_lost": 0.7113, "fouls": 1.4229, "fouls_drawn": 1.1199, "blocks": 0.2898, "big_chances_created": 0.0157, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0521, "ball_carries": 15.172, "total_progression": 69.898, "progressive_carries": 1.6251, "shots_off_target": 0.7305, "opponent_faced": "Daichi Kamada", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.42 (squad xG sum 1.4199, xG scale 1.0015, xA scale 1.1218, team xA 0.92 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6974, "expected_assists": 0.0499, "assist_rate": 0.0757, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0682, "goal_rate": 0.0742, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2845, "total_shots": 1.015, "rating": 6.8526, "minutes": 78.94, "total_pass": 37.5449, "accurate_pass": 31.7221, "duels_won": 5.2274, "total_long_balls": 1.789, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9672, "total_own_half_passes": 13.7772, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0341, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7677, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.6879, "crosses_total": 0.1646, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.5427, "possession_lost": 10.178, "dispossessed": 1.1932, "duels_lost": 4.0802, "aerial_won": 1.0941, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 1.5457, "tackles_won": 1.0177, "tackles": 1.7669, "clearances": 1.7089, "total_contest": 1.7242, "won_contest": 1.2466, "challenges_lost": 0.7113, "fouls": 1.4229, "fouls_drawn": 1.1199, "blocks": 0.2898, "big_chances_created": 0.0157, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0522, "ball_carries": 15.172, "total_progression": 69.898, "progressive_carries": 1.6251, "shots_off_target": 0.7305, "opponent_faced": "Daichi Kamada", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0517, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.422, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4199, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8239, "team_expected_assists": 0.9243, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0015, "xa_scale": 1.1218, "opponent_lambda": 1.359, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0445, "after": 0.0499 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6974, "expected_assists": 0.0499, "assist_rate": 0.0757, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0682, "goal_rate": 0.0742, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2845, "total_shots": 1.015, "rating": 6.8526, "minutes": 78.94, "total_pass": 37.5449, "accurate_pass": 31.7221, "duels_won": 5.2274, "total_long_balls": 1.789, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9672, "total_own_half_passes": 13.7772, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0341, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7677, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.6879, "crosses_total": 0.1646, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.5427, "possession_lost": 10.178, "dispossessed": 1.1932, "duels_lost": 4.0802, "aerial_won": 1.0941, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 1.5457, "tackles_won": 1.0177, "tackles": 1.7669, "clearances": 1.7089, "total_contest": 1.7242, "won_contest": 1.2466, "challenges_lost": 0.7113, "fouls": 1.4229, "fouls_drawn": 1.1199, "blocks": 0.2898, "big_chances_created": 0.0157, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0522, "ball_carries": 15.172, "total_progression": 69.898, "progressive_carries": 1.6251, "shots_off_target": 0.7305, "opponent_faced": "Daichi Kamada", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0517, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 162, "fifa_rank": 142.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6974, "expected_assists": 0.0499, "assist_rate": 0.0757, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0682, "goal_rate": 0.0742, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2845, "total_shots": 1.015, "rating": 6.8526, "minutes": 78.94, "total_pass": 37.5449, "accurate_pass": 31.7221, "duels_won": 5.2274, "total_long_balls": 1.789, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9672, "total_own_half_passes": 13.7772, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0341, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7677, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.6879, "crosses_total": 0.1646, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.5427, "possession_lost": 10.178, "dispossessed": 1.1932, "duels_lost": 4.0802, "aerial_won": 1.0941, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 1.5457, "tackles_won": 1.0177, "tackles": 1.7669, "clearances": 1.7089, "total_contest": 1.7242, "won_contest": 1.2466, "challenges_lost": 0.7113, "fouls": 1.4229, "fouls_drawn": 1.1199, "blocks": 0.2898, "big_chances_created": 0.0157, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0522, 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assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6974, "expected_assists": 0.0499, "assist_rate": 0.0757, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0682, "goal_rate": 0.0742, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2845, "total_shots": 1.015, "rating": 6.8526, "minutes": 78.94, "total_pass": 37.5449, "accurate_pass": 31.7221, "duels_won": 5.2274, "total_long_balls": 1.789, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9672, "total_own_half_passes": 13.7772, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0341, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7677, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.6879, "crosses_total": 0.1646, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.5427, "possession_lost": 10.178, "dispossessed": 1.1932, "duels_lost": 4.0802, "aerial_won": 1.0941, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 1.5457, "tackles_won": 1.0177, "tackles": 1.7669, "clearances": 1.7089, "total_contest": 1.7242, "won_contest": 1.2466, "challenges_lost": 0.7113, "fouls": 1.4229, "fouls_drawn": 1.1199, 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"blocked_own_goal": [ "Alexander Isak" ] } ] } } ] }, "Wataru Endo": { "player_id": 143040, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 178, "market_value": 2700000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0378, "assist_rate": 0.0604, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "goal_rate": 0.0494, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7574, "minutes": 80, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 21, "possession_lost": 4.1574, "dispossessed": 0.0908, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9922, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5534, "expected_assists": 0.0337, "assists": 0.0604, "assist_rate": 0.0604, "expected_goals": 0.0442, "goals": 0.0701, "goal_rate": 0.0701, "shots_on_target": 0.1516, "total_shots": 0.6426, "rating": 6.7574, "minutes": 80.33, "total_pass": 13.4997, "accurate_pass": 11.5068, "duels_won": 2.6659, "total_long_balls": 0.8359, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6313, "total_own_half_passes": 6.4734, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6722, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0263, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8346, "crosses_total": 0.583, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.6445, "possession_lost": 4.1574, "dispossessed": 0.0908, "duels_lost": 1.4518, "aerial_won": 1.2863, "aerial_lost": 0.6477, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4748, "tackles": 0.9206, "clearances": 2.0818, 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1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6426, "after": 0.4532 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.491, "after": 0.3463 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1516, "after": 0.1069 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0701, "after": 0.0494 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0442, "after": 0.0312 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5534, "expected_assists": 0.0337, "assist_rate": 0.0604, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "goal_rate": 0.0494, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1069, "total_shots": 0.4532, "rating": 6.7574, "minutes": 80.33, "total_pass": 13.4997, "accurate_pass": 11.5068, "duels_won": 2.6659, "total_long_balls": 0.8359, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6313, "total_own_half_passes": 6.4734, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6722, 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"projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.42 (squad xG sum 1.4199, xG scale 1.0015, xA scale 1.1218, team xA 0.92 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5534, "expected_assists": 0.0378, "assist_rate": 0.0604, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "goal_rate": 0.0494, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1069, "total_shots": 0.4532, "rating": 6.7574, "minutes": 80.33, "total_pass": 13.4997, "accurate_pass": 11.5068, "duels_won": 2.6659, "total_long_balls": 0.8359, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6313, "total_own_half_passes": 6.4734, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6722, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0263, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8346, "crosses_total": 0.583, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.6445, 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Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5534, "expected_assists": 0.0378, "assist_rate": 0.0604, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "goal_rate": 0.0494, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1069, "total_shots": 0.4532, "rating": 6.7574, "minutes": 80.33, "total_pass": 13.4997, "accurate_pass": 11.5068, "duels_won": 2.6659, "total_long_balls": 0.8359, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6313, "total_own_half_passes": 6.4734, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6722, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0263, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8346, "crosses_total": 0.583, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.6445, "possession_lost": 4.1574, "dispossessed": 0.0908, "duels_lost": 1.4518, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.6477, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4748, "tackles": 0.9206, "clearances": 2.0818, "total_contest": 0.1478, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2702, "fouls": 0.2954, "fouls_drawn": 0.4592, "blocks": 0.0, 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"starter", "history_matches": 21, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0222, quality 0.891)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4488, "goals": 0.54, "goal_rate": 0.54, "shots_on_target": 1.1269, "total_shots": 2.7489, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "key_pass": 0.6864, "rating": 6.8969, "minutes": 79.41, "total_pass": 10.7528, "accurate_pass": 7.6009, "duels_won": 1.958, "total_long_balls": 0.5508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3703, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4298, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6459, "crosses_total": 0.1698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.8425, "possession_lost": 7.2714, "dispossessed": 0.6564, "duels_lost": 3.0417, "aerial_lost": 1.2532, "total_contest": 1.0945, "won_contest": 0.5635, "ball_recovery": 0.8537, "challenges_lost": 0.3818, "fouls": 0.2366, "fouls_drawn": 0.2838, "assists": 0.0203, "assist_rate": 0.0203, "interceptions": 0.1213, "tackles_won": 0.1254, "tackles": 0.1999, "clearances": 0.3584, "blocks": 0.0634, "big_chances_created": 0.0222, "big_chances_missed": 0.3738, "xgot": 0.6991, "offsides": 0.6977, "ball_carries": 4.277, "total_progression": 12.3238, "progressive_carries": 0.833, "shots_off_target": 1.622 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 93000000, "quality_factor": 0.8905, "boost_factor": 1.0222, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 21, "history_shrink": 0.1923, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4488, "goals": 0.54, "goal_rate": 0.54, "shots_on_target": 1.1269, "total_shots": 2.7489, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "key_pass": 0.6864, "rating": 6.8969, "minutes": 79.41, "total_pass": 10.7528, "accurate_pass": 7.6009, "duels_won": 1.958, "total_long_balls": 0.5508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3703, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4298, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6459, 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"expected_assists": 0.0388, "key_pass": 0.6864, "rating": 6.8969, "minutes": 79.41, "total_pass": 10.7528, "accurate_pass": 7.6009, "duels_won": 1.958, "total_long_balls": 0.5508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3703, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4298, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6459, "crosses_total": 0.1698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.8425, "possession_lost": 7.2714, "dispossessed": 0.6564, "duels_lost": 3.0417, "aerial_lost": 1.2532, "total_contest": 1.0945, "won_contest": 0.5635, "ball_recovery": 0.8537, "challenges_lost": 0.3818, "fouls": 0.2366, "fouls_drawn": 0.2838, "assists": 0.0203, "assist_rate": 0.0203, "interceptions": 0.1213, "tackles_won": 0.1254, "tackles": 0.1999, "clearances": 0.3584, "blocks": 0.0634, "big_chances_created": 0.0222, "big_chances_missed": 0.4152, "xgot": 0.7765, "offsides": 0.6977, "ball_carries": 4.277, "total_progression": 12.3238, "progressive_carries": 0.833, "shots_off_target": 1.8016, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1107, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, 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"market_value": 25000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.7411 } ], "xg_override": 0.4985 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.7489, "after": 3.0532 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.622, "after": 1.8016 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 1.1269, "after": 1.2516 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.6991, "after": 0.7765 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.54, "after": 0.5998 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.4488, "after": 0.4985 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.3738, "after": 0.4152 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4985, "goal_rate": 0.5998, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.2516, "total_shots": 3.0532, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "key_pass": 0.6864, "rating": 6.8969, "minutes": 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10.7528, "accurate_pass": 7.6009, "duels_won": 1.958, "total_long_balls": 0.5508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3703, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4298, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6459, "crosses_total": 0.1698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.8425, "possession_lost": 7.2714, "dispossessed": 0.6564, "duels_lost": 3.0417, "aerial_lost": 1.2532, "total_contest": 1.0945, "won_contest": 0.5635, "ball_recovery": 0.8537, "challenges_lost": 0.3818, "fouls": 0.2366, "fouls_drawn": 0.2838, "assist_rate": 0.0203, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1213, "tackles_won": 0.1254, "tackles": 0.1999, "clearances": 0.3584, "blocks": 0.0634, "big_chances_created": 0.0222, "big_chances_missed": 0.4152, "xgot": 0.7777, "offsides": 0.6977, "ball_carries": 4.277, "total_progression": 12.3238, "progressive_carries": 0.833, "shots_off_target": 1.8016, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1107, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.275, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Jaydee Canvot, Chris Richards", "opponent_faced": "Jaydee Canvot, Chris Richards", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1847, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.422, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4199, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8239, "team_expected_assists": 0.9243, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0015, "xa_scale": 1.1218, "opponent_lambda": 1.359, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"opponent_defenders": "Jaydee Canvot, Chris Richards", "opponent_faced": "Jaydee Canvot, Chris Richards", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3931, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0426, "finishing_factor": 1.1847, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0426, "assist_rate": 0.0203, "provider_weight": 0.0348, "squad_weight_total": 0.8798, "weight_share": 0.0396, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Florian Wirtz", "weight": 0.1725, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1725, "runner_up": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1704, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Alexander Isak" ] } ] } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Alisson": { "player_id": 243609, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": 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"league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024024.0, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0448, "expected_assists": 0.0322, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023939.0, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": 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"league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025035.0, "match_date": "2026-04-19", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 799, "combined_rank_score": 386.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 257.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 516.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6166, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jeremie Frimpong", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Christoph Baumgartner", "ranking": 794 }, { "player_name": "Matías Viña", "ranking": 795 }, { "player_name": "Valeri Gromyko", "ranking": 796 }, { "player_name": "Islomzhon Kobilov", "ranking": 797 }, { "player_name": "Khurshid Giyosov", "ranking": 798 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Diego Oyarzún", "ranking": 800 }, { "player_name": "Leroy Sané", "ranking": 801 }, { "player_name": "Kang-in Lee", "ranking": 802 }, { "player_name": "Harvey Barnes", "ranking": 803 }, { "player_name": "Nicola Pérez", "ranking": 804 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 26, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": 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"totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 26, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.710658378070402, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.3504844717304728, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0106, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (26 historical appearances) to 14.7 expected mins (appearance prob 0.35)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2948, "tackles": 0.7707, "tackles_won": 0.5273, "clearances": 0.5777, "aerial_won": 0.2107, "total_shots": 0.2337, "rating": 6.6166, "minutes": 16.44, "total_pass": 6.599, "accurate_pass": 5.4672, "duels_won": 1.0905, "total_long_balls": 0.3005, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0405, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6413, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5585, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 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"onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3495 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2023 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0405 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0276 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0234 } ], "others": -0.0418, "total": 0.2998, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.349539 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.202287 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.040516 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.0276 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.023419 } ], "others_margin": -0.041731 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6669416427612305, "model_output": 6.6669, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0962 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0418 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0282 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0114 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0095 } ], "others": -0.0262, "total": 6.6669, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.096226 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.041755 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.028199 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.011355 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.009543 } ], "others_margin": -0.026097 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 12, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0103, quality 0.622)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.234, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "assists": 0.0349, "assist_rate": 0.0349, "expected_goals": 0.0227, "goals": 0.0282, "goal_rate": 0.0282, "shots_on_target": 0.0744, "total_shots": 0.3029, "rating": 6.6669, "minutes": 22.11, "total_pass": 13.8172, "accurate_pass": 12.2846, "duels_won": 0.9783, "total_long_balls": 0.6624, "accurate_long_balls": 0.217, "total_own_half_passes": 5.4806, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.885, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3366, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3995, "crosses_total": 0.1276, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3632, "possession_lost": 2.3671, "dispossessed": 0.0409, "duels_lost": 1.1992, "aerial_won": 0.1501, "aerial_lost": 0.3562, "interceptions": 0.6149, "tackles_won": 0.1276, "tackles": 0.6779, "clearances": 1.306, "total_contest": 0.1625, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2952, "fouls": 0.4529, "fouls_drawn": 0.1501, "blocks": 0.1085, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0451, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.8535, "total_progression": 6.9466, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2285 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19100000, "quality_factor": 0.6221, "boost_factor": 1.0103, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 12, "history_shrink": 0.2941, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.1 to 22.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2403, "expected_assists": 0.0211, "assists": 0.0358, "assist_rate": 0.0358, "expected_goals": 0.0233, "goals": 0.029, "goal_rate": 0.029, "shots_on_target": 0.0764, "total_shots": 0.311, "rating": 6.6669, "minutes": 22.7, "total_pass": 14.1882, "accurate_pass": 12.6144, "duels_won": 1.0046, "total_long_balls": 0.6802, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2228, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6277, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0161, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5604, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5982, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.8562, "possession_lost": 2.4307, "dispossessed": 0.0409, "duels_lost": 1.2314, "aerial_won": 0.1541, "aerial_lost": 0.3562, "interceptions": 0.6314, "tackles_won": 0.131, "tackles": 0.6961, "clearances": 1.3411, "total_contest": 0.1669, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2952, "fouls": 0.4651, "fouls_drawn": 0.1541, "blocks": 0.1114, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0463, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.9838, "total_progression": 7.1331, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2346, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.7 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.7, "projection_minutes": 22.11, "minutes_scale": 1.0268, "appearance_probability": 0.532 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2403, "expected_assists": 0.0211, "assists": 0.0358, "assist_rate": 0.0358, "expected_goals": 0.0233, "goals": 0.029, "goal_rate": 0.029, "shots_on_target": 0.0764, "total_shots": 0.311, "rating": 6.6669, "minutes": 22.7, "total_pass": 14.1882, "accurate_pass": 12.6144, "duels_won": 1.0046, "total_long_balls": 0.6802, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2228, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6277, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0161, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5604, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5982, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.8562, "possession_lost": 2.4307, "dispossessed": 0.0409, "duels_lost": 1.2314, "aerial_won": 0.1541, "aerial_lost": 0.3562, "interceptions": 0.6314, "tackles_won": 0.131, "tackles": 0.6961, "clearances": 1.3411, "total_contest": 0.1669, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2952, "fouls": 0.4651, "fouls_drawn": 0.1541, "blocks": 0.1114, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0463, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.9838, "total_progression": 7.1331, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2346, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.7 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2403, "expected_assists": 0.0211, "assist_rate": 0.0358, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0233, "goal_rate": 0.029, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0764, "total_shots": 0.311, "rating": 6.6669, "minutes": 22.7, "total_pass": 14.1882, "accurate_pass": 12.6144, "duels_won": 1.0046, "total_long_balls": 0.6802, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2228, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6277, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0161, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5604, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5982, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.8562, "possession_lost": 2.4307, "dispossessed": 0.0409, "duels_lost": 1.2314, "aerial_won": 0.1541, "aerial_lost": 0.3562, "interceptions": 0.6314, "tackles_won": 0.131, "tackles": 0.6961, "clearances": 1.3411, "total_contest": 0.1669, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2952, "fouls": 0.4651, "fouls_drawn": 0.1541, "blocks": 0.1114, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0463, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.9838, "total_progression": 7.1331, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2346, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.7, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.66, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.42 (squad xG sum 1.4199, xG scale 1.0015, xA scale 1.1218, team xA 0.92 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2403, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "assist_rate": 0.0358, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0124, "goal_rate": 0.029, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0764, "total_shots": 0.311, "rating": 6.6669, "minutes": 22.7, "total_pass": 14.1882, "accurate_pass": 12.6144, "duels_won": 1.0046, "total_long_balls": 0.6802, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2228, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6277, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0161, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5604, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5982, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.8562, "possession_lost": 2.4307, "dispossessed": 0.0409, "duels_lost": 1.2314, "aerial_won": 0.1541, "aerial_lost": 0.3562, "interceptions": 0.6314, "tackles_won": 0.131, "tackles": 0.6961, "clearances": 1.3411, "total_contest": 0.1669, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2952, "fouls": 0.4651, "fouls_drawn": 0.1541, "blocks": 0.1114, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0463, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.9838, "total_progression": 7.1331, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2346, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.7, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.66, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0778, "creation_factor": 1.2068 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.422, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4199, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8239, "team_expected_assists": 0.9243, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0015, "xa_scale": 1.1218, "opponent_lambda": 1.359, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.532 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0233, "after": 0.0124 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0211, "after": 0.0126 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 67.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2403, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "assist_rate": 0.0358, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0124, "goal_rate": 0.029, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0764, "total_shots": 0.311, "rating": 6.6669, "minutes": 22.7, "total_pass": 14.1882, "accurate_pass": 12.6144, "duels_won": 1.0046, "total_long_balls": 0.6802, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2228, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6277, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0161, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5604, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5982, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.8562, "possession_lost": 2.4307, "dispossessed": 0.0409, "duels_lost": 1.2314, "aerial_won": 0.1541, "aerial_lost": 0.3562, "interceptions": 0.6314, "tackles_won": 0.131, "tackles": 0.6961, "clearances": 1.3411, "total_contest": 0.1669, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2952, "fouls": 0.4651, "fouls_drawn": 0.1541, "blocks": 0.1114, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0463, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.9838, "total_progression": 7.1331, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2346, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.7, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.66, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0778, "creation_factor": 1.2068, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 6475, "fifa_rank": 9037.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 67.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2403, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "assist_rate": 0.0358, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0124, "goal_rate": 0.029, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0764, "total_shots": 0.311, "rating": 6.6669, "minutes": 22.7, "total_pass": 14.1882, "accurate_pass": 12.6144, "duels_won": 1.0046, "total_long_balls": 0.6802, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2228, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6277, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0161, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5604, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5982, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.8562, "possession_lost": 2.4307, "dispossessed": 0.0409, "duels_lost": 1.2314, "aerial_won": 0.1541, "aerial_lost": 0.3562, "interceptions": 0.6314, "tackles_won": 0.131, "tackles": 0.6961, "clearances": 1.3411, "total_contest": 0.1669, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2952, "fouls": 0.4651, "fouls_drawn": 0.1541, "blocks": 0.1114, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0463, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.9838, "total_progression": 7.1331, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2346, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.7, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.66, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0123, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0778, "creation_factor": 1.2068, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0123, "goal_rate": 0.029, "scorer_weight": 0.0134, "squad_weight_total": 1.5473, "weight_share": 0.0086, "finishing_factor": 1.0778, "appearance_weight": 0.532, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alexander Isak", "weight": 0.5916, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5916, "runner_up": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1966 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2403, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "assist_rate": 0.0358, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0124, "goal_rate": 0.029, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0764, "total_shots": 0.311, "rating": 6.6669, "minutes": 22.7, "total_pass": 14.1882, "accurate_pass": 12.6144, "duels_won": 1.0046, "total_long_balls": 0.6802, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2228, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6277, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0161, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5604, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5982, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.8562, "possession_lost": 2.4307, "dispossessed": 0.0409, "duels_lost": 1.2314, "aerial_won": 0.1541, "aerial_lost": 0.3562, "interceptions": 0.6314, "tackles_won": 0.131, "tackles": 0.6961, "clearances": 1.3411, "total_contest": 0.1669, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2952, "fouls": 0.4651, "fouls_drawn": 0.1541, "blocks": 0.1114, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0463, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.9838, "total_progression": 7.1331, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2346, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.7, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.66, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0123, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0125, "finishing_factor": 1.0778, "creation_factor": 1.2068, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0125, "assist_rate": 0.0358, "provider_weight": 0.0152, "squad_weight_total": 0.8798, "weight_share": 0.0173, "creation_factor": 1.2068, "appearance_weight": 0.532, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Florian Wirtz", "weight": 0.1725, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1725, "runner_up": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1704, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Alexander Isak" ] } ] } } ] }, "James McConnell": { "player_id": 1138428, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 53, "height": 180, "market_value": 1600000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0269, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "expected_goals": 0.0198, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 1.9775, "dispossessed": 0.7, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0146, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0132, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 18, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.66, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 5685, "combined_rank_score": 3965.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 7711.0, "fifa_overall": 68.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "James McConnell", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jack Stephens", "ranking": 5680 }, { "player_name": "Darko Gyabi", "ranking": 5681 }, { "player_name": "Alex Mowatt", "ranking": 5682 }, { "player_name": "Miguel Brizuela", 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0.0091, "total": 0.0677, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.733324, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.372146 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.147204 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.12586 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.064552 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.059519 } ], "others_margin": 0.145325 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5512962937355042, "model_output": 0.5513, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2582 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0554 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.036 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.026 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0236 } ], "others": 0.0288, "total": 0.5513, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.467319 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.120368 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.07111 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.050861 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.046198 } ], "others_margin": 0.053605 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.796422958374023, "model_output": 6.7964, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.074 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0275 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0242 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "contribution": 0.0183 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0177 } ], "others": 0.0094, "total": 6.7964, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.073952 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.027529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.024201 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": 0.018336 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.017697 } ], "others_margin": 0.009278 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0528, quality 0.892)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.084, "goals": 0.0984, "goal_rate": 0.0984, "shots_on_target": 0.2695, "total_shots": 0.9273, "expected_assists": 0.0713, "key_pass": 0.5804, "rating": 6.7964, "minutes": 22.0, "total_pass": 21.9168, "accurate_pass": 17.5666, "duels_won": 4.5141, "total_long_balls": 0.7191, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5036, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.8198, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8411, "crosses_total": 0.4802, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.0085, "possession_lost": 9.1584, "dispossessed": 0.4367, "duels_lost": 4.8946, "aerial_lost": 0.9483, "total_contest": 3.7858, "won_contest": 1.7453, "ball_recovery": 4.3918, "challenges_lost": 0.531, "fouls": 1.4452, "fouls_drawn": 0.6903, "assists": 0.469, "assist_rate": 0.469, "interceptions": 0.7226, "tackles_won": 1.2002, "tackles": 1.6692, "clearances": 0.6522, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2838, "big_chances_missed": 0.3894, "xgot": 0.0082, "offsides": 0.1557, "ball_carries": 14.4627, "total_progression": 95.7889, "progressive_carries": 4.0111, "shots_off_target": 0.6578 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 97000000, "quality_factor": 0.8922, "boost_factor": 1.0528, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.0 to 27.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.64)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1034, "goals": 0.1212, "goal_rate": 0.1212, "shots_on_target": 0.3319, "total_shots": 1.142, "expected_assists": 0.0878, "key_pass": 0.7148, "rating": 6.7964, "minutes": 27.09, "total_pass": 26.9908, "accurate_pass": 21.6335, "duels_won": 5.5592, "total_long_balls": 0.8856, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6202, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0455, "crosses_total": 0.5914, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 46.8079, "possession_lost": 11.2787, "dispossessed": 0.4367, "duels_lost": 6.0278, "aerial_lost": 0.9483, "total_contest": 4.6623, "won_contest": 2.1494, "ball_recovery": 5.4085, "challenges_lost": 0.531, "fouls": 1.7798, "fouls_drawn": 0.8501, "assists": 0.5776, "assist_rate": 0.5776, "interceptions": 0.8899, "tackles_won": 1.4781, "tackles": 2.0556, "clearances": 0.8032, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3495, "big_chances_missed": 0.4796, "xgot": 0.0101, "offsides": 0.1557, "ball_carries": 17.811, "total_progression": 117.9651, "progressive_carries": 4.9397, "shots_off_target": 0.8101, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.641, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.09 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.09, "projection_minutes": 22.0, "minutes_scale": 1.2315, "appearance_probability": 0.641 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1034, "goals": 0.1212, "goal_rate": 0.1212, "shots_on_target": 0.3319, "total_shots": 1.142, "expected_assists": 0.0878, "key_pass": 0.7148, "rating": 6.7964, "minutes": 27.09, "total_pass": 26.9908, "accurate_pass": 21.6335, "duels_won": 5.5592, "total_long_balls": 0.8856, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6202, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0455, "crosses_total": 0.5914, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 46.8079, "possession_lost": 11.2787, "dispossessed": 0.4367, "duels_lost": 6.0278, "aerial_lost": 0.9483, "total_contest": 4.6623, "won_contest": 2.1494, "ball_recovery": 5.4085, "challenges_lost": 0.531, "fouls": 1.7798, "fouls_drawn": 0.8501, "assists": 0.5776, "assist_rate": 0.5776, "interceptions": 0.8899, "tackles_won": 1.4781, "tackles": 2.0556, "clearances": 0.8032, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3495, "big_chances_missed": 0.4796, "xgot": 0.0101, "offsides": 0.1557, "ball_carries": 17.811, "total_progression": 117.9651, "progressive_carries": 4.9397, "shots_off_target": 0.8101, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.641, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.09 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1034, "goal_rate": 0.1212, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3319, "total_shots": 1.142, "expected_assists": 0.0878, "key_pass": 0.7148, "rating": 6.7964, "minutes": 27.09, "total_pass": 26.9908, "accurate_pass": 21.6335, "duels_won": 5.5592, "total_long_balls": 0.8856, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6202, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0455, "crosses_total": 0.5914, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 46.8079, "possession_lost": 11.2787, "dispossessed": 0.4367, "duels_lost": 6.0278, "aerial_lost": 0.9483, "total_contest": 4.6623, "won_contest": 2.1494, "ball_recovery": 5.4085, "challenges_lost": 0.531, "fouls": 1.7798, "fouls_drawn": 0.8501, "assist_rate": 0.5776, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8899, "tackles_won": 1.4781, "tackles": 2.0556, "clearances": 0.8032, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3495, "big_chances_missed": 0.4796, "xgot": 0.0101, "offsides": 0.1557, "ball_carries": 17.811, "total_progression": 117.9651, "progressive_carries": 4.9397, "shots_off_target": 0.8101, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.641, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.66, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "assists", "before": 1.0, "after": 0 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.42 (squad xG sum 1.4199, xG scale 1.0015, xA scale 1.1218, team xA 0.92 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0664, "goal_rate": 0.1212, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3319, "total_shots": 1.142, "expected_assists": 0.0631, "key_pass": 0.7148, "rating": 6.7964, "minutes": 27.09, "total_pass": 26.9908, "accurate_pass": 21.6335, "duels_won": 5.5592, "total_long_balls": 0.8856, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6202, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0455, "crosses_total": 0.5914, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 46.8079, "possession_lost": 11.2787, "dispossessed": 0.4367, "duels_lost": 6.0278, "aerial_lost": 0.9483, "total_contest": 4.6623, "won_contest": 2.1494, "ball_recovery": 5.4085, "challenges_lost": 0.531, "fouls": 1.7798, "fouls_drawn": 0.8501, "assist_rate": 0.5776, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8899, "tackles_won": 1.4781, "tackles": 2.0556, "clearances": 0.8032, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3495, "big_chances_missed": 0.4796, "xgot": 0.0065, "offsides": 0.1557, "ball_carries": 17.811, "total_progression": 117.9651, "progressive_carries": 4.9397, "shots_off_target": 0.8101, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.641, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.66, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.116, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.422, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4199, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8239, "team_expected_assists": 0.9243, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0015, "xa_scale": 1.1218, "opponent_lambda": 1.359, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.641 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1034, "after": 0.0664 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0878, "after": 0.0631 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0170, quality 0.879)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1386, "goals": 0.1314, "goal_rate": 0.1314, "shots_on_target": 0.3317, "total_shots": 1.0344, "expected_assists": 0.0349, "key_pass": 0.4569, "rating": 6.7469, "minutes": 24.05, "total_pass": 7.6748, "accurate_pass": 6.3364, "duels_won": 1.6139, "total_long_balls": 0.1172, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7444, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4061, "crosses_total": 0.4719, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.2765, "possession_lost": 4.4962, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.374, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.3707, "won_contest": 0.7945, "ball_recovery": 0.8418, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7815, "fouls_drawn": 0.3417, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0846, "tackles": 0.2225, "clearances": 0.638, "blocks": 0.1172, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 5.4827, "total_progression": 23.8012, "progressive_carries": 1.0763, "shots_off_target": 0.7026 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 77000000, "quality_factor": 0.8792, "boost_factor": 1.017, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.1 to 27.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.64)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1558, "goals": 0.1477, "goal_rate": 0.1477, "shots_on_target": 0.373, "total_shots": 1.1631, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0.5137, "rating": 6.7469, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.79, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.04, "projection_minutes": 24.05, "minutes_scale": 1.1244, "appearance_probability": 0.638 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1558, "goals": 0.1477, "goal_rate": 0.1477, "shots_on_target": 0.373, "total_shots": 1.1631, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0.5137, "rating": 6.7469, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.79, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1558, "goal_rate": 0.1477, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.373, "total_shots": 1.1631, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0.5137, "rating": 6.7469, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.79, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.66, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.42 (squad xG sum 1.4199, xG scale 1.0015, xA scale 1.1218, team xA 0.92 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0995, "goal_rate": 0.1477, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.373, "total_shots": 1.1631, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "key_pass": 0.5137, "rating": 6.7469, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.79, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.66, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9606, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.422, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4199, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8239, "team_expected_assists": 0.9243, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0015, "xa_scale": 1.1218, "opponent_lambda": 1.359, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.638 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1558, "after": 0.0995 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0392, "after": 0.0281 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0995, "goal_rate": 0.1477, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.373, "total_shots": 1.1631, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "key_pass": 0.5137, "rating": 6.7469, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.79, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.66, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9606, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 476, "fifa_rank": 144.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0995, "goal_rate": 0.1477, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.373, "total_shots": 1.1631, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "key_pass": 0.5137, "rating": 6.7469, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.79, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.66, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0921, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9606, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0921, "goal_rate": 0.1477, "scorer_weight": 0.0956, "squad_weight_total": 1.5473, "weight_share": 0.0618, "finishing_factor": 0.9606, "appearance_weight": 0.638, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alexander Isak", "weight": 0.5916, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5916, "runner_up": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1966 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0995, "goal_rate": 0.1477, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.373, "total_shots": 1.1631, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "key_pass": 0.5137, "rating": 6.7469, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.79, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.66, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0921, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0275, "finishing_factor": 0.9606, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, 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"assist_probability": 0.0601, "finishing_factor": 1.116, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363907.0, "match_date": "2026-11-01 16:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17.0, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668.0, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Liverpool", "away_team": "Arsenal", "home_score_current": 0.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Liverpool", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363898.0, "match_date": "2026-10-25", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Brighton & 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"margin": 0.024201 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": 0.018336 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.017697 } ], "others_margin": 0.009278 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0528, quality 0.892)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.084, "goals": 0.0984, "goal_rate": 0.0984, "shots_on_target": 0.2695, "total_shots": 0.9273, "expected_assists": 0.0713, "key_pass": 0.5804, "rating": 6.7964, "minutes": 22.0, "total_pass": 21.9168, "accurate_pass": 17.5666, "duels_won": 4.5141, "total_long_balls": 0.7191, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5036, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.8198, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.8411, "crosses_total": 0.4802, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.0085, "possession_lost": 9.1584, "dispossessed": 0.4367, "duels_lost": 4.8946, "aerial_lost": 0.9483, "total_contest": 3.7858, "won_contest": 1.7453, "ball_recovery": 4.3918, "challenges_lost": 0.531, "fouls": 1.4452, "fouls_drawn": 0.6903, "assists": 0.469, "assist_rate": 0.469, "interceptions": 0.7226, "tackles_won": 1.2002, "tackles": 1.6692, "clearances": 0.6522, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2838, "big_chances_missed": 0.3894, "xgot": 0.0082, "offsides": 0.1557, "ball_carries": 14.4627, "total_progression": 95.7889, "progressive_carries": 4.0111, "shots_off_target": 0.6578 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 97000000, "quality_factor": 0.8922, "boost_factor": 1.0528, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.0 to 27.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.64)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1034, "goals": 0.1212, "goal_rate": 0.1212, "shots_on_target": 0.3319, "total_shots": 1.142, "expected_assists": 0.0878, "key_pass": 0.7148, "rating": 6.7964, "minutes": 27.09, "total_pass": 26.9908, "accurate_pass": 21.6335, "duels_won": 5.5592, "total_long_balls": 0.8856, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6202, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0455, "crosses_total": 0.5914, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 46.8079, "possession_lost": 11.2787, "dispossessed": 0.4367, "duels_lost": 6.0278, "aerial_lost": 0.9483, "total_contest": 4.6623, "won_contest": 2.1494, "ball_recovery": 5.4085, "challenges_lost": 0.531, "fouls": 1.7798, "fouls_drawn": 0.8501, "assists": 0.5776, "assist_rate": 0.5776, "interceptions": 0.8899, "tackles_won": 1.4781, "tackles": 2.0556, "clearances": 0.8032, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3495, "big_chances_missed": 0.4796, "xgot": 0.0101, "offsides": 0.1557, "ball_carries": 17.811, "total_progression": 117.9651, "progressive_carries": 4.9397, "shots_off_target": 0.8101, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.641, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.09 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.09, "projection_minutes": 22.0, "minutes_scale": 1.2315, "appearance_probability": 0.641 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1034, "goals": 0.1212, "goal_rate": 0.1212, "shots_on_target": 0.3319, "total_shots": 1.142, "expected_assists": 0.0878, "key_pass": 0.7148, "rating": 6.7964, "minutes": 27.09, "total_pass": 26.9908, "accurate_pass": 21.6335, "duels_won": 5.5592, "total_long_balls": 0.8856, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6202, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0455, "crosses_total": 0.5914, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 46.8079, "possession_lost": 11.2787, "dispossessed": 0.4367, "duels_lost": 6.0278, "aerial_lost": 0.9483, "total_contest": 4.6623, "won_contest": 2.1494, "ball_recovery": 5.4085, "challenges_lost": 0.531, "fouls": 1.7798, "fouls_drawn": 0.8501, "assists": 0.5776, "assist_rate": 0.5776, "interceptions": 0.8899, "tackles_won": 1.4781, "tackles": 2.0556, "clearances": 0.8032, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3495, "big_chances_missed": 0.4796, "xgot": 0.0101, "offsides": 0.1557, "ball_carries": 17.811, "total_progression": 117.9651, "progressive_carries": 4.9397, "shots_off_target": 0.8101, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.641, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.09 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1034, "goal_rate": 0.1212, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3319, "total_shots": 1.142, "expected_assists": 0.0878, "key_pass": 0.7148, "rating": 6.7964, "minutes": 27.09, "total_pass": 26.9908, "accurate_pass": 21.6335, "duels_won": 5.5592, "total_long_balls": 0.8856, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6202, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0455, "crosses_total": 0.5914, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 46.8079, "possession_lost": 11.2787, "dispossessed": 0.4367, "duels_lost": 6.0278, "aerial_lost": 0.9483, "total_contest": 4.6623, "won_contest": 2.1494, "ball_recovery": 5.4085, "challenges_lost": 0.531, "fouls": 1.7798, "fouls_drawn": 0.8501, "assist_rate": 0.5776, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8899, "tackles_won": 1.4781, "tackles": 2.0556, "clearances": 0.8032, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3495, "big_chances_missed": 0.4796, "xgot": 0.0101, "offsides": 0.1557, "ball_carries": 17.811, "total_progression": 117.9651, "progressive_carries": 4.9397, "shots_off_target": 0.8101, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.641, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.66, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "assists", "before": 1.0, "after": 0 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.42 (squad xG sum 1.4199, xG scale 1.0015, xA scale 1.1218, team xA 0.92 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0664, "goal_rate": 0.1212, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3319, "total_shots": 1.142, "expected_assists": 0.0631, "key_pass": 0.7148, "rating": 6.7964, "minutes": 27.09, "total_pass": 26.9908, "accurate_pass": 21.6335, "duels_won": 5.5592, "total_long_balls": 0.8856, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6202, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0455, "crosses_total": 0.5914, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 46.8079, "possession_lost": 11.2787, "dispossessed": 0.4367, "duels_lost": 6.0278, "aerial_lost": 0.9483, "total_contest": 4.6623, "won_contest": 2.1494, "ball_recovery": 5.4085, "challenges_lost": 0.531, "fouls": 1.7798, "fouls_drawn": 0.8501, "assist_rate": 0.5776, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8899, "tackles_won": 1.4781, "tackles": 2.0556, "clearances": 0.8032, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3495, "big_chances_missed": 0.4796, "xgot": 0.0065, "offsides": 0.1557, "ball_carries": 17.811, "total_progression": 117.9651, "progressive_carries": 4.9397, "shots_off_target": 0.8101, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.641, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.66, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.116, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.422, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4199, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8239, "team_expected_assists": 0.9243, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0015, "xa_scale": 1.1218, "opponent_lambda": 1.359, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.641 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1034, "after": 0.0664 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0878, "after": 0.0631 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0664, "goal_rate": 0.1212, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3319, "total_shots": 1.142, "expected_assists": 0.0631, "key_pass": 0.7148, "rating": 6.7964, "minutes": 27.09, "total_pass": 26.9908, "accurate_pass": 21.6335, "duels_won": 5.5592, "total_long_balls": 0.8856, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6202, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0455, "crosses_total": 0.5914, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 46.8079, "possession_lost": 11.2787, "dispossessed": 0.4367, "duels_lost": 6.0278, "aerial_lost": 0.9483, "total_contest": 4.6623, "won_contest": 2.1494, "ball_recovery": 5.4085, "challenges_lost": 0.531, "fouls": 1.7798, "fouls_drawn": 0.8501, "assist_rate": 0.5776, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8899, "tackles_won": 1.4781, "tackles": 2.0556, "clearances": 0.8032, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3495, "big_chances_missed": 0.4796, "xgot": 0.0065, "offsides": 0.1557, "ball_carries": 17.811, "total_progression": 117.9651, "progressive_carries": 4.9397, "shots_off_target": 0.8101, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.641, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.66, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.116, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 706, "fifa_rank": 103.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0664, "goal_rate": 0.1212, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3319, "total_shots": 1.142, "expected_assists": 0.0631, "key_pass": 0.7148, "rating": 6.7964, "minutes": 27.09, "total_pass": 26.9908, "accurate_pass": 21.6335, "duels_won": 5.5592, "total_long_balls": 0.8856, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6202, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0455, "crosses_total": 0.5914, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 46.8079, "possession_lost": 11.2787, "dispossessed": 0.4367, "duels_lost": 6.0278, "aerial_lost": 0.9483, "total_contest": 4.6623, "won_contest": 2.1494, "ball_recovery": 5.4085, "challenges_lost": 0.531, "fouls": 1.7798, "fouls_drawn": 0.8501, "assist_rate": 0.5776, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8899, "tackles_won": 1.4781, "tackles": 2.0556, "clearances": 0.8032, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3495, "big_chances_missed": 0.4796, "xgot": 0.0065, "offsides": 0.1557, "ball_carries": 17.811, "total_progression": 117.9651, "progressive_carries": 4.9397, "shots_off_target": 0.8101, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.641, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.66, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0631, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.116, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0631, "goal_rate": 0.1212, "scorer_weight": 0.0741, "squad_weight_total": 1.5473, "weight_share": 0.0479, "finishing_factor": 1.116, "appearance_weight": 0.641, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alexander Isak", "weight": 0.5916, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5916, "runner_up": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1966 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0664, "goal_rate": 0.1212, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3319, "total_shots": 1.142, "expected_assists": 0.0631, "key_pass": 0.7148, "rating": 6.7964, "minutes": 27.09, "total_pass": 26.9908, "accurate_pass": 21.6335, "duels_won": 5.5592, "total_long_balls": 0.8856, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6202, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0455, "crosses_total": 0.5914, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 46.8079, "possession_lost": 11.2787, "dispossessed": 0.4367, "duels_lost": 6.0278, "aerial_lost": 0.9483, "total_contest": 4.6623, "won_contest": 2.1494, "ball_recovery": 5.4085, "challenges_lost": 0.531, "fouls": 1.7798, "fouls_drawn": 0.8501, "assist_rate": 0.5776, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8899, "tackles_won": 1.4781, "tackles": 2.0556, "clearances": 0.8032, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3495, "big_chances_missed": 0.4796, "xgot": 0.0065, "offsides": 0.1557, "ball_carries": 17.811, "total_progression": 117.9651, "progressive_carries": 4.9397, "shots_off_target": 0.8101, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.641, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.66, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0631, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0601, "finishing_factor": 1.116, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0601, "assist_rate": 0.5776, "provider_weight": 0.0789, "squad_weight_total": 0.8798, "weight_share": 0.0897, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.641, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Florian Wirtz", "weight": 0.1725, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1725, "runner_up": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1704, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Alexander Isak" ] } ] } } ] }, "Hugo Ekitiké": { "player_id": 1048422, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 190, "market_value": 77000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0995, "goal_rate": 0.1477, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7469, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.66, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0921, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0275, "finishing_factor": 0.9606, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14024015.0, "match_date": "2026-03-21", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986.0", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023992.0, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": 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"keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2493 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0336 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0191 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0142 } ], "others": 0.0003, "total": 0.4493, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.447011 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.073289 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.047563 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.042982 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.032057 } ], "others_margin": 0.000641 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.746876239776611, "model_output": 6.7469, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0866 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.02 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.011 } ], "others": 0.0514, "total": 6.7469, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.08659 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.019957 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012254 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.012064 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.011022 } ], "others_margin": 0.051387 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0170, quality 0.879)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1386, "goals": 0.1314, "goal_rate": 0.1314, "shots_on_target": 0.3317, "total_shots": 1.0344, "expected_assists": 0.0349, "key_pass": 0.4569, "rating": 6.7469, "minutes": 24.05, "total_pass": 7.6748, "accurate_pass": 6.3364, "duels_won": 1.6139, "total_long_balls": 0.1172, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7444, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4061, "crosses_total": 0.4719, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.2765, "possession_lost": 4.4962, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.374, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.3707, "won_contest": 0.7945, "ball_recovery": 0.8418, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7815, "fouls_drawn": 0.3417, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0846, "tackles": 0.2225, "clearances": 0.638, "blocks": 0.1172, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 5.4827, "total_progression": 23.8012, "progressive_carries": 1.0763, "shots_off_target": 0.7026 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 77000000, "quality_factor": 0.8792, "boost_factor": 1.017, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.1 to 27.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.64)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1558, "goals": 0.1477, "goal_rate": 0.1477, "shots_on_target": 0.373, "total_shots": 1.1631, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0.5137, "rating": 6.7469, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.79, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.04, "projection_minutes": 24.05, "minutes_scale": 1.1244, "appearance_probability": 0.638 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1558, "goals": 0.1477, "goal_rate": 0.1477, "shots_on_target": 0.373, "total_shots": 1.1631, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0.5137, "rating": 6.7469, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.79, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1558, "goal_rate": 0.1477, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.373, "total_shots": 1.1631, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0.5137, "rating": 6.7469, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.79, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.66, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.42 (squad xG sum 1.4199, xG scale 1.0015, xA scale 1.1218, team xA 0.92 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0995, "goal_rate": 0.1477, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.373, "total_shots": 1.1631, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "key_pass": 0.5137, "rating": 6.7469, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.79, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.66, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9606, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.422, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4199, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8239, "team_expected_assists": 0.9243, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0015, "xa_scale": 1.1218, "opponent_lambda": 1.359, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.638 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1558, "after": 0.0995 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0392, "after": 0.0281 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0995, "goal_rate": 0.1477, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.373, "total_shots": 1.1631, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "key_pass": 0.5137, "rating": 6.7469, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.79, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.66, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9606, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 476, "fifa_rank": 144.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0995, "goal_rate": 0.1477, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.373, "total_shots": 1.1631, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "key_pass": 0.5137, "rating": 6.7469, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.79, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.66, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0921, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9606, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0921, "goal_rate": 0.1477, "scorer_weight": 0.0956, "squad_weight_total": 1.5473, "weight_share": 0.0618, "finishing_factor": 0.9606, "appearance_weight": 0.638, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alexander Isak", "weight": 0.5916, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5916, "runner_up": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1966 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0995, "goal_rate": 0.1477, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.373, "total_shots": 1.1631, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "key_pass": 0.5137, "rating": 6.7469, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.79, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.66, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0921, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0275, "finishing_factor": 0.9606, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0275, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0225, "squad_weight_total": 0.8798, "weight_share": 0.0256, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.638, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Florian Wirtz", "weight": 0.1725, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1725, "runner_up": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1704, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Alexander Isak" ] } ] } } ] }, "Trey Nyoni": { "player_id": 1445945, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 42, "height": 180, "market_value": 19100000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "assist_rate": 0.0358, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0124, "goal_rate": 0.029, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6669, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, 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0, "assist_probability": 0.0125, "finishing_factor": 1.0778, "creation_factor": 1.2068, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363898.0, "match_date": "2026-10-25", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 7.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17.0", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668.0", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363882.0, "match_date": 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"total": 0.2998, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.349539 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.202287 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.040516 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.0276 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.023419 } ], "others_margin": -0.041731 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6669416427612305, "model_output": 6.6669, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0962 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0418 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0282 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0114 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0095 } ], "others": -0.0262, "total": 6.6669, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.096226 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.041755 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.028199 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.011355 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.009543 } ], "others_margin": -0.026097 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 12, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0103, quality 0.622)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.234, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "assists": 0.0349, "assist_rate": 0.0349, "expected_goals": 0.0227, "goals": 0.0282, "goal_rate": 0.0282, "shots_on_target": 0.0744, "total_shots": 0.3029, "rating": 6.6669, "minutes": 22.11, "total_pass": 13.8172, "accurate_pass": 12.2846, "duels_won": 0.9783, "total_long_balls": 0.6624, "accurate_long_balls": 0.217, "total_own_half_passes": 5.4806, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.885, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3366, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3995, "crosses_total": 0.1276, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3632, "possession_lost": 2.3671, "dispossessed": 0.0409, "duels_lost": 1.1992, "aerial_won": 0.1501, "aerial_lost": 0.3562, "interceptions": 0.6149, "tackles_won": 0.1276, "tackles": 0.6779, "clearances": 1.306, "total_contest": 0.1625, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2952, "fouls": 0.4529, "fouls_drawn": 0.1501, "blocks": 0.1085, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0451, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.8535, "total_progression": 6.9466, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2285 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19100000, "quality_factor": 0.6221, "boost_factor": 1.0103, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 12, "history_shrink": 0.2941, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.1 to 22.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2403, "expected_assists": 0.0211, "assists": 0.0358, "assist_rate": 0.0358, "expected_goals": 0.0233, "goals": 0.029, "goal_rate": 0.029, "shots_on_target": 0.0764, "total_shots": 0.311, "rating": 6.6669, "minutes": 22.7, "total_pass": 14.1882, "accurate_pass": 12.6144, "duels_won": 1.0046, "total_long_balls": 0.6802, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2228, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6277, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0161, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5604, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5982, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.8562, "possession_lost": 2.4307, "dispossessed": 0.0409, "duels_lost": 1.2314, "aerial_won": 0.1541, "aerial_lost": 0.3562, "interceptions": 0.6314, "tackles_won": 0.131, "tackles": 0.6961, "clearances": 1.3411, "total_contest": 0.1669, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2952, "fouls": 0.4651, "fouls_drawn": 0.1541, "blocks": 0.1114, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0463, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.9838, "total_progression": 7.1331, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2346, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.7 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.7, "projection_minutes": 22.11, "minutes_scale": 1.0268, "appearance_probability": 0.532 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2403, "expected_assists": 0.0211, "assists": 0.0358, "assist_rate": 0.0358, "expected_goals": 0.0233, "goals": 0.029, "goal_rate": 0.029, "shots_on_target": 0.0764, "total_shots": 0.311, "rating": 6.6669, "minutes": 22.7, "total_pass": 14.1882, "accurate_pass": 12.6144, "duels_won": 1.0046, "total_long_balls": 0.6802, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2228, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6277, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0161, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5604, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5982, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.8562, "possession_lost": 2.4307, "dispossessed": 0.0409, "duels_lost": 1.2314, "aerial_won": 0.1541, "aerial_lost": 0.3562, "interceptions": 0.6314, "tackles_won": 0.131, "tackles": 0.6961, "clearances": 1.3411, "total_contest": 0.1669, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2952, "fouls": 0.4651, "fouls_drawn": 0.1541, "blocks": 0.1114, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0463, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.9838, "total_progression": 7.1331, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2346, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.7 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2403, "expected_assists": 0.0211, "assist_rate": 0.0358, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0233, "goal_rate": 0.029, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0764, "total_shots": 0.311, "rating": 6.6669, "minutes": 22.7, "total_pass": 14.1882, "accurate_pass": 12.6144, "duels_won": 1.0046, "total_long_balls": 0.6802, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2228, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6277, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0161, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5604, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5982, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.8562, "possession_lost": 2.4307, "dispossessed": 0.0409, "duels_lost": 1.2314, "aerial_won": 0.1541, "aerial_lost": 0.3562, "interceptions": 0.6314, "tackles_won": 0.131, "tackles": 0.6961, "clearances": 1.3411, "total_contest": 0.1669, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2952, "fouls": 0.4651, "fouls_drawn": 0.1541, "blocks": 0.1114, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0463, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.9838, "total_progression": 7.1331, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2346, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.7, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.66, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.42 (squad xG sum 1.4199, xG scale 1.0015, xA scale 1.1218, team xA 0.92 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2403, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "assist_rate": 0.0358, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0124, "goal_rate": 0.029, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0764, "total_shots": 0.311, "rating": 6.6669, "minutes": 22.7, "total_pass": 14.1882, "accurate_pass": 12.6144, "duels_won": 1.0046, "total_long_balls": 0.6802, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2228, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6277, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0161, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5604, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5982, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.8562, "possession_lost": 2.4307, "dispossessed": 0.0409, "duels_lost": 1.2314, "aerial_won": 0.1541, "aerial_lost": 0.3562, "interceptions": 0.6314, "tackles_won": 0.131, "tackles": 0.6961, "clearances": 1.3411, "total_contest": 0.1669, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2952, "fouls": 0.4651, "fouls_drawn": 0.1541, "blocks": 0.1114, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0463, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.9838, "total_progression": 7.1331, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2346, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.7, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.66, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0778, "creation_factor": 1.2068 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.422, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4199, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8239, "team_expected_assists": 0.9243, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0015, "xa_scale": 1.1218, "opponent_lambda": 1.359, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.532 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0233, "after": 0.0124 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0211, "after": 0.0126 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 67.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2403, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "assist_rate": 0.0358, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0124, "goal_rate": 0.029, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0764, "total_shots": 0.311, "rating": 6.6669, "minutes": 22.7, "total_pass": 14.1882, "accurate_pass": 12.6144, "duels_won": 1.0046, "total_long_balls": 0.6802, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2228, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6277, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0161, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5604, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5982, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.8562, "possession_lost": 2.4307, "dispossessed": 0.0409, "duels_lost": 1.2314, "aerial_won": 0.1541, "aerial_lost": 0.3562, "interceptions": 0.6314, "tackles_won": 0.131, "tackles": 0.6961, "clearances": 1.3411, "total_contest": 0.1669, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2952, "fouls": 0.4651, "fouls_drawn": 0.1541, "blocks": 0.1114, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0463, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.9838, "total_progression": 7.1331, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2346, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.7, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.66, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0778, "creation_factor": 1.2068, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 6475, "fifa_rank": 9037.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 67.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2403, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "assist_rate": 0.0358, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0124, "goal_rate": 0.029, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0764, "total_shots": 0.311, "rating": 6.6669, "minutes": 22.7, "total_pass": 14.1882, "accurate_pass": 12.6144, "duels_won": 1.0046, "total_long_balls": 0.6802, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2228, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6277, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0161, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5604, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5982, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.8562, "possession_lost": 2.4307, "dispossessed": 0.0409, "duels_lost": 1.2314, "aerial_won": 0.1541, "aerial_lost": 0.3562, "interceptions": 0.6314, "tackles_won": 0.131, "tackles": 0.6961, "clearances": 1.3411, "total_contest": 0.1669, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2952, "fouls": 0.4651, "fouls_drawn": 0.1541, "blocks": 0.1114, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0463, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.9838, "total_progression": 7.1331, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2346, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.7, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.66, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0123, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0778, "creation_factor": 1.2068, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0123, "goal_rate": 0.029, "scorer_weight": 0.0134, "squad_weight_total": 1.5473, "weight_share": 0.0086, "finishing_factor": 1.0778, "appearance_weight": 0.532, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alexander Isak", "weight": 0.5916, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5916, "runner_up": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1966 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2403, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "assist_rate": 0.0358, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0124, "goal_rate": 0.029, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0764, "total_shots": 0.311, "rating": 6.6669, "minutes": 22.7, "total_pass": 14.1882, "accurate_pass": 12.6144, "duels_won": 1.0046, "total_long_balls": 0.6802, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2228, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6277, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0161, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.5604, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5982, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.8562, "possession_lost": 2.4307, "dispossessed": 0.0409, "duels_lost": 1.2314, "aerial_won": 0.1541, "aerial_lost": 0.3562, "interceptions": 0.6314, "tackles_won": 0.131, "tackles": 0.6961, "clearances": 1.3411, "total_contest": 0.1669, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2952, "fouls": 0.4651, "fouls_drawn": 0.1541, "blocks": 0.1114, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0463, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.9838, "total_progression": 7.1331, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2346, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.7, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.66, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0123, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0125, "finishing_factor": 1.0778, "creation_factor": 1.2068, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0125, "assist_rate": 0.0358, "provider_weight": 0.0152, "squad_weight_total": 0.8798, "weight_share": 0.0173, "creation_factor": 1.2068, "appearance_weight": 0.532, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Florian Wirtz", "weight": 0.1725, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1725, "runner_up": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1704, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Alexander Isak" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.42, "expected_assists": 0.92, "total_shots": 15, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 484, "interceptions": 9, "tackles": 17, "avg_rating": 6.94, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.5, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.9 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 41000000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.786, "defenders": [ "Virgil van Dijk", "Jérémy Jacquet" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.725, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.21, "xg_contribution": 0.3326, "xg_multiplier": 1.0151, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Virgil van Dijk", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.79 }, { "player": "Jérémy Jacquet", "role": "CB", "market_value": 67000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.79 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jørgen Strand Larsen (ST) is evenly matched against Virgil van Dijk and Jérémy Jacquet in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.02 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.333 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Yéremy Pino", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Alexis Mac Allister", "Virgil van Dijk" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.732, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.185, "xg_contribution": 0.1177, "xg_multiplier": 0.8748, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alexis Mac Allister", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.815 }, { "player": "Virgil van Dijk", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.815 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yéremy Pino (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Alexis Mac Allister and Virgil van Dijk in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €46M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.87 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.118 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Dwight McNeil", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Alexis Mac Allister", "Virgil van Dijk" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.732, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.213, "xg_contribution": 0.1339, "xg_multiplier": 0.9165, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alexis Mac Allister", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.787 }, { "player": "Virgil van Dijk", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.787 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dwight McNeil (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Alexis Mac Allister and Virgil van Dijk in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. The quality gap is significant (€23M vs €46M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.92 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.134 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Daichi Kamada", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 10300000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.526, "defenders": [ "Miloš Kerkez" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.758, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.302, "xg_contribution": 0.0658, "xg_multiplier": 0.8562, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Miloš Kerkez", "role": "RB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.698 } ], "duel_analysis": "Daichi Kamada (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Miloš Kerkez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€10M vs €36M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.86 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.066 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Tyrick Mitchell", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Conor Bradley" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.65, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.376, "xg_contribution": 0.0658, "xg_multiplier": 0.9654, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Conor Bradley", "role": "LB", "market_value": 22000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.624 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tyrick Mitchell (RWB) is evenly matched against Conor Bradley in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.066 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Adam Wharton", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 79000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.881, "defenders": [ "Alexis Mac Allister" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.879, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.473, "xg_contribution": 0.0502, "xg_multiplier": 1.0342, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alexis Mac Allister", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.527 } ], "duel_analysis": "Adam Wharton (CM) is evenly matched against Alexis Mac Allister in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.03 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.050 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Anan Khalaili", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Alexis Mac Allister" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.879, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.389, "xg_contribution": 0.0805, "xg_multiplier": 0.9102, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alexis Mac Allister", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.611 } ], "duel_analysis": "Anan Khalaili (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Alexis Mac Allister in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €77M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.91 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.080 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 91000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.89, "defenders": [ "Jaydee Canvot" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.732, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.459, "xg_contribution": 0.1859, "xg_multiplier": 1.0573, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jaydee Canvot", "role": "CB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.541 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dominik Szoboszlai (LW) is evenly matched against Jaydee Canvot in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. The quality gap is significant (€91M vs €32M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.06 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.186 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Florian Wirtz", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 81000000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.883, "defenders": [ "Adam Wharton" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.881, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.391, "xg_contribution": 0.1585, "xg_multiplier": 0.9578, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adam Wharton", "role": "CM", "market_value": 79000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.609 } ], "duel_analysis": "Florian Wirtz (CAM) is evenly matched against Adam Wharton in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.159 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Wataru Endo", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 2700000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Jaydee Canvot" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.732, "duel_zone": "RW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.219, "xg_contribution": 0.0312, "xg_multiplier": 0.7053, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jaydee Canvot", "role": "CB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.781 } ], "duel_analysis": "Wataru Endo (RW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jaydee Canvot in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 22%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €32M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.71 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.031 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Alexander Isak", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 93000000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.891, "defenders": [ "Jaydee Canvot", "Chris Richards" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.705, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.275, "xg_contribution": 0.4985, "xg_multiplier": 1.1107, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jaydee Canvot", "role": "CB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.725 }, { "player": "Chris Richards", "role": "CB", "market_value": 25000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.725 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alexander Isak (ST) is slightly favored against Jaydee Canvot and Chris Richards in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€93M vs €28M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.11 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.498 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.709, "away_midfield_power": 0.844, "home_creative_power": 0.598, "away_creative_power": 0.782, "home_defensive_power": 0.681, "away_defensive_power": 0.623, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.456, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Daichi Kamada", "Adam Wharton", "Tyrick Mitchell", "Anan Khalaili" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Dominik Szoboszlai", "Florian Wirtz", "Alexis Mac Allister", "Ryan Gravenberch", "Wataru Endo" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.5, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.5, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.0, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.9, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.1, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.2, "home_throughball_threat": 2.4, "away_throughball_threat": 2.9, "key_personal_duel": "Adam Wharton vs Dominik Szoboszlai", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.989, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.014 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.359, "away_lambda": 1.422, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "LW vs CB" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Jørgen Strand Larsen": { "opponents": [ "Virgil van Dijk", "Jérémy Jacquet" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Yéremy Pino": { "opponents": [ "Alexis Mac Allister", "Virgil van Dijk" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Dwight McNeil": { "opponents": [ "Alexis Mac Allister", "Virgil van Dijk" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Daichi Kamada": { "opponents": [ "Miloš Kerkez", "Ryan Gravenberch" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Tyrick Mitchell": { "opponents": [ "Conor Bradley", "Dominik Szoboszlai" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Adam Wharton": { "opponents": [ "Alexis Mac Allister", "Florian Wirtz", "Wataru Endo" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Anan Khalaili": { "opponents": [ "Alexis Mac Allister" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jaydee Canvot": { "opponents": [ "Dominik Szoboszlai", "Wataru Endo", "Alexander Isak" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Chris Richards": { "opponents": [ "Alexander Isak" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dean Henderson": { "opponents": [ "Alexander Isak", "Florian Wirtz" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Axel Disasi": { "opponents": [ "Alexander Isak" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Virgil van Dijk": { "opponents": [ "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "Yéremy Pino", "Dwight McNeil" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jérémy Jacquet": { "opponents": [ "Jørgen Strand Larsen" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alexis Mac Allister": { "opponents": [ "Yéremy Pino", "Dwight McNeil", "Adam Wharton", "Anan Khalaili" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Miloš Kerkez": { "opponents": [ "Daichi Kamada" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Conor Bradley": { "opponents": [ "Tyrick Mitchell" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dominik Szoboszlai": { "opponents": [ "Jaydee Canvot", "Tyrick Mitchell" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Florian Wirtz": { "opponents": [ "Adam Wharton" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Wataru Endo": { "opponents": [ "Jaydee Canvot", "Adam Wharton" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alexander Isak": { "opponents": [ "Jaydee Canvot", "Chris Richards" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ryan Gravenberch": { "opponents": [ "Daichi Kamada" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Giorgi Mamardashvili": { "opponents": [ "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "Yéremy Pino" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Adam Wharton vs Dominik Szoboszlai will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.85, Away: 0.87. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.2992, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8989, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8989, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9098, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9418, "home_midfield_factor": 0.989, "away_midfield_factor": 1.014, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.6869, "away_avg_quality": 0.7722, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0853, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.6205, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.7048, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.6076, "elite_count_gap": -4, "combined_quality_gap": -0.2134, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1173, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0683, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8465, "n_duels": 7, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9974 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.989, "result": 0.9864 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.95, "result": 0.9371 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.2992, "result": 1.2175 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9213, "result": 1.1217 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8989, "result": 1.0083 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9098, "result": 0.9173 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 1.0973 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.0973, "result": 1.0973, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.2134, "factor": 0.9317, "pre": 1.0973, "result": 1.0224 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0224 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1867, "result": 1.2087 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.2087 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.2087, "result": 1.209, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.2, "result": 1.451 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0071, "pre": 1.451, "result": 1.4613, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.461 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.461 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.461, "result": 1.461, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 0.889, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.359 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8741, "n_duels": 4, "duel_confidence": 0.67, "result": 1.0641 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.014, "result": 1.079 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.05, "result": 1.133 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.133 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.1429, "result": 1.2949 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8989, "result": 1.164 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9418, "result": 1.0963 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 1.2763 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.2763, "result": 1.2763, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.2134, "factor": 1.1173, "pre": 1.2763, "result": 1.426 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.426 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 1.646 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.646 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.646, "result": 1.646, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.02, "result": 1.679 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9929, "pre": 1.679, "result": 1.6671, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.667 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.667 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.667, "result": 1.667, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 0.889, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.422 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1867, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.461, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.667, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.2087, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.646, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 105, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.781, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.889, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.359, "final_away_lambda": 1.422 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 18, "opponent_position": 5, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9213, "attack_index": 0.929, "defense_concede_index": 0.892, "form_multiplier": 0.966, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.27, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.22, "team_ppg": 1.01, "opponent_ppg": 1.65 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 5, "opponent_position": 18, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.1429, "attack_index": 1.002, "defense_concede_index": 1.367, "form_multiplier": 1.034, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.37, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.87, "team_ppg": 1.65, "opponent_ppg": 1.01 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Crystal Palace vs Liverpool. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-4-2-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.209, Away 1.646). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.359, Away 1.422 (most likely score 1-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 11, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 0, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.359, "away_lambda": 1.422, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.209, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.646 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.889, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-11-03T14:35:26Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }