{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261108", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "lineup_status": "projected_from_squad", "lineup_source": "/teams/get-squad", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.45 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-1", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0991, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "2-1", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0991, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "1-2", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0555, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Real Sociedad", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2223, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1042 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0991 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0962 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0926 }, { "score": "3-1", "probability": 0.0632 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0512, "0-1": 0.0536, "0-2": 0.029, "0-3": 0.0104, "0-4": 0.0028, "0-5": 0.0006, "1-0": 0.0962, "1-1": 0.1042, "1-2": 0.0555, "1-3": 0.0198, "1-4": 0.0053, "1-5": 0.0011, "2-0": 0.0926, "2-1": 0.0991, "2-2": 0.0531, "2-3": 0.019, "2-4": 0.0051, "2-5": 0.0011, "3-0": 0.059, "3-1": 0.0632, "3-2": 0.0339, "3-3": 0.0121, "3-4": 0.0032, "3-5": 0.0007, "4-0": 0.0282, "4-1": 0.0302, "4-2": 0.0162, "4-3": 0.0058, "4-4": 0.0015, "5-0": 0.0108, "5-1": 0.0116, "5-2": 0.0062, "5-3": 0.0022, "5-4": 0.0006, "6-0": 0.0034, "6-1": 0.0037, "6-2": 0.002, "6-3": 0.0007, "7-0": 0.0009, "7-1": 0.001, "7-2": 0.0005 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.5694, "draw": 0.2223, "away_win": 0.2083 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5732, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4268, "btts_yes": 0.5609, "btts_no": 0.4391, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3427, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1476 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.81, "MCR": 6.97, "ATR": 6.95, "GK": 7.12 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.85, "MCR": 7.0, "ATR": 6.96, "GK": 6.9 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Real Sociedad 3W-5D-2L vs Rayo Vallecano over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Mikel Oyarzabal, Orri Óskarsson, Sergio Camello", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Jon Gorrotxategi vs Pedro Díaz). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.18, Away: 0.88. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.7, "home_lambda": 1.913, "away_lambda": 1.071, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 3, "away_wins": 2, "draws": 5, "home_multiplier": 1.0071, "away_multiplier": 0.9929 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1042, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.5694, "draw": 0.2223, "away_win": 0.2083 }, "favorite": "Real Sociedad", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5694, "fair_spread": 0.842, "fair_total": 2.984, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Real Sociedad", "estimate": 1.913, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Rayo Vallecano", "estimate": 1.071, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5732, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5609, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Real Sociedad", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3427, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Rayo Vallecano", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1476, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Orri Óskarsson (Real Sociedad)", "estimate": 0.6299, "probability": 0.4674, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Sergio Camello (Rayo Vallecano)", "estimate": 0.2219, "probability": 0.199, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Carlos Soler (Real Sociedad)", "estimate": 0.2853, "probability": 0.2482, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Unai López (Rayo Vallecano)", "estimate": 0.134, "probability": 0.1254, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.984, "expected_total_shots": 29, "expected_total_passes": 944, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.0, "possession_home_pct": 52.4, "possession_away_pct": 47.6, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Real Sociedad", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5694, "script": "Real Sociedad is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +0.84 goals and fair total 2.98.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Rayo Vallecano must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Real Sociedad lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Real Sociedad chance creation leans on Orri Óskarsson against Florian Lejeune, Mujaid Sadick in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Real Sociedad: starters carry the main goal usage through Mikel Oyarzabal, Orri Óskarsson; bench watchlist: Pablo Marín, Arsen Zakharyan.", "Rayo Vallecano: starters carry the main goal usage through Sergio Camello; bench watchlist: Alemão, Isi Palazón, Giorgi Tsitaishvili.", "Assist usage should flow through Carlos Soler, Álvaro García; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Real Sociedad tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.49 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Rayo Vallecano is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Real Sociedad.", "Rayo Vallecano wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Real Sociedad": { "formation": "4-4-2", "players": { "Álex Remiro": { "player_id": 791773, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 191, "market_value": 9600000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0223, "rating": 7.1197, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 27, "total_long_balls": 22, "accurate_long_balls": 10, "touches": 49, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.6978, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 13.2823, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 24, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0034, "shots_faced": 10.2, "expected_saves": 2.5, "high_pressure_saves": 0.86, "opponent_faced": "Sergio Camello, Álvaro García", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16421088.0, "match_date": "2026-11-01 20:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8.0, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268.0, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100.0, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16421086.0, "match_date": "2026-10-25", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "goal_rate": 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"competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 4.0, "starts": 4.0, "minutes": 360.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2667 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 46 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Real Sociedad, rel: 0.27, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.9768, "goals_prevented": -0.0222, "rating": 7.1197, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.4229, "accurate_pass": 26.5362, "total_long_balls": 22.2533, "accurate_long_balls": 9.5903, "touches": 48.8619, "clearances": 1.4924, "ball_recovery": 7.1662, "high_claims": 0.6632, "punches": 0.6975, "aerial_won": 0.0796, "sweeper_actions": 1.7105, "sweeper_accurate": 1.7101, "saves_inside_box": 2.1004, "possession_lost": 13.277, "duels_won": 0.1393, "duels_lost": 0.0075, 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"margin_base": 6.987111, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.046908 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.028358 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.028209 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": 0.022132 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.019821 } ], "others_margin": -0.012854 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 46, "role_matches": 46, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0004, quality 0.518)", "stats": { "saves": 2.978, "goals_prevented": -0.0223, "rating": 7.1197, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.4387, "accurate_pass": 26.5468, "total_long_balls": 22.2622, "accurate_long_balls": 9.5941, "touches": 48.8814, "clearances": 1.493, "ball_recovery": 7.1691, "high_claims": 0.6635, "punches": 0.6978, "aerial_won": 0.0796, "sweeper_actions": 1.7112, "sweeper_accurate": 1.7108, "saves_inside_box": 2.1012, "possession_lost": 13.2823, "duels_won": 0.1394, "duels_lost": 0.0075, "total_contest": 0.0008, "won_contest": 0.0008, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0898, "total_own_half_passes": 23.576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.8734 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9600000, "quality_factor": 0.5177, "boost_factor": 1.0004, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 46, "history_shrink": 0.098, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0170)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9996, "goals_prevented": -0.0223, "rating": 7.1197, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.4387, "accurate_pass": 26.5468, "total_long_balls": 22.2622, "accurate_long_balls": 9.5941, "touches": 48.8814, "clearances": 1.493, "ball_recovery": 7.1691, "high_claims": 0.6635, "punches": 0.6978, "aerial_won": 0.0796, "sweeper_actions": 1.7112, "sweeper_accurate": 1.7108, "saves_inside_box": 2.1012, "possession_lost": 13.2823, "duels_won": 0.1394, "duels_lost": 0.0075, "total_contest": 0.0008, "won_contest": 0.0008, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0883, "total_own_half_passes": 23.576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.8734 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.017, "history_matches": 46, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Sociedad" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.978, "after": 2.9996 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.9996, "goals_prevented": -0.0223, "rating": 7.1197, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.4387, "accurate_pass": 26.5468, "total_long_balls": 22.2622, "accurate_long_balls": 9.5941, "touches": 48.8814, "clearances": 1.493, "ball_recovery": 7.1691, "high_claims": 0.6635, "punches": 0.6978, "aerial_won": 0.0796, "sweeper_actions": 1.7112, "sweeper_accurate": 1.7108, "saves_inside_box": 2.1012, "possession_lost": 13.2823, "duels_won": 0.1394, "duels_lost": 0.0075, "total_contest": 0.0008, "won_contest": 0.0008, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0883, "total_own_half_passes": 23.576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.8734 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9996, "goals_prevented": -0.0223, "rating": 7.1197, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.4387, "accurate_pass": 26.5468, "total_long_balls": 22.2622, "accurate_long_balls": 9.5941, "touches": 48.8814, "clearances": 1.493, "ball_recovery": 7.1691, "high_claims": 0.6635, "punches": 0.6978, "aerial_won": 0.0796, "sweeper_actions": 1.7112, "sweeper_accurate": 1.7108, "saves_inside_box": 2.1012, "possession_lost": 13.2823, "duels_won": 0.1394, "duels_lost": 0.0075, "total_contest": 0.0008, "won_contest": 0.0008, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0883, "total_own_half_passes": 23.576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.8734, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0034, "shots_faced": 9.5, "expected_saves": 2.32, "high_pressure_saves": 0.8, "opponent_faced": "Sergio Camello, Álvaro García", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Sergio Camello, Álvaro García", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.0034 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.9996, "goals_prevented": -0.0223, "rating": 7.1197, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.4387, "accurate_pass": 26.5468, "total_long_balls": 22.2622, "accurate_long_balls": 9.5941, "touches": 48.8814, "clearances": 1.493, "ball_recovery": 7.1691, "high_claims": 0.6635, "punches": 0.6978, "aerial_won": 0.0796, "sweeper_actions": 1.7112, "sweeper_accurate": 1.7108, "saves_inside_box": 2.1012, "possession_lost": 13.2823, "duels_won": 0.1394, "duels_lost": 0.0075, "total_contest": 0.0008, "won_contest": 0.0008, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0883, "total_own_half_passes": 23.576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.8734, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0034, "shots_faced": 9.5, "expected_saves": 2.32, "high_pressure_saves": 0.8, "opponent_faced": "Sergio Camello, Álvaro García", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.91 (squad xG sum 1.3935, xG scale 1.3728, xA scale 1.7141, team xA 1.24 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9996, "goals_prevented": -0.0223, "rating": 7.1197, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.4387, "accurate_pass": 26.5468, "total_long_balls": 22.2622, "accurate_long_balls": 9.5941, "touches": 48.8814, "clearances": 1.493, "ball_recovery": 7.1691, "high_claims": 0.6635, "punches": 0.6978, "aerial_won": 0.0796, "sweeper_actions": 1.7112, "sweeper_accurate": 1.7108, "saves_inside_box": 2.1012, "possession_lost": 13.2823, "duels_won": 0.1394, "duels_lost": 0.0075, "total_contest": 0.0008, "won_contest": 0.0008, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0883, "total_own_half_passes": 23.576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.8734, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0034, "shots_faced": 10.2, "expected_saves": 2.5, "high_pressure_saves": 0.86, "opponent_faced": "Sergio Camello, Álvaro García", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.913, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3935, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7254, "team_expected_assists": 1.2435, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3728, "xa_scale": 1.7141, "opponent_lambda": 1.071, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 9.5, "after": 10.2 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.32, "after": 2.5 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.8, "after": 0.86 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9996, "goals_prevented": -0.0223, "rating": 7.1197, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.4387, "accurate_pass": 26.5468, "total_long_balls": 22.2622, "accurate_long_balls": 9.5941, "touches": 48.8814, "clearances": 1.493, "ball_recovery": 7.1691, "high_claims": 0.6635, "punches": 0.6978, "aerial_won": 0.0796, "sweeper_actions": 1.7112, "sweeper_accurate": 1.7108, "saves_inside_box": 2.1012, "possession_lost": 13.2823, "duels_won": 0.1394, "duels_lost": 0.0075, "total_contest": 0.0008, "won_contest": 0.0008, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0883, "total_own_half_passes": 23.576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.8734, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0034, "shots_faced": 10.2, "expected_saves": 2.5, "high_pressure_saves": 0.86, "opponent_faced": "Sergio Camello, Álvaro García", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 2.1341, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Orri Óskarsson", "weight": 0.7062, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7062, "runner_up": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5501 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "weight": 0.5501, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5501, "runner_up": "Orri Óskarsson", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3005 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9996, "goals_prevented": -0.0223, "rating": 7.1197, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.4387, "accurate_pass": 26.5468, "total_long_balls": 22.2622, "accurate_long_balls": 9.5941, "touches": 48.8814, "clearances": 1.493, "ball_recovery": 7.1691, "high_claims": 0.6635, "punches": 0.6978, 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"totalShots", "contribution": 0.0182 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0136 } ], "others": -0.0366, "total": 0.5267, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.058053 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.026491 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.018668 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.018175 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.013646 } ], "others_margin": -0.036634 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.956427097320557, "model_output": 6.9564, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0472 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0266 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0063, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2874, "tackles": 1.5131, "tackles_won": 0.8433, "clearances": 5.6522, "aerial_won": 2.7328, "total_shots": 0.53, "rating": 6.9564, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 60.5301, "accurate_pass": 55.8533, "duels_won": 6.2482, "total_long_balls": 3.4388, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2776, "total_own_half_passes": 42.6941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 41.179, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.836, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6743, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 75.6673, "possession_lost": 5.8807, "dispossessed": 0.5038, "duels_lost": 3.8289, "aerial_lost": 1.7344, "total_contest": 0.2554, "won_contest": 0.0567, "ball_recovery": 3.4177, "challenges_lost": 0.2153, "fouls": 1.411, "fouls_drawn": 0.918, "blocks": 0.9702, "goals": 0.1775, 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"blocks": 0.9702, "goals": 0.1736, "goal_rate": 0.1736, "assists": 0.126, "assist_rate": 0.126, "expected_goals": 0.0734, "expected_assists": 0.0088, "shots_on_target": 0.2569, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1687, "ball_carries": 22.2439, "total_progression": 64.9505, "progressive_carries": 0.4624, "key_pass": 0.2052, "shots_off_target": 0.2729 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2643, "tackles": 1.5131, "tackles_won": 0.8579, "clearances": 5.6522, "aerial_won": 2.7328, "total_shots": 0.5298, "rating": 6.9564, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 60.5301, "accurate_pass": 55.8533, "duels_won": 6.2482, "total_long_balls": 3.4388, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2776, "total_own_half_passes": 42.6941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 41.179, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.836, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6743, 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"dispossessed": 0.5038, "duels_lost": 3.8289, "aerial_lost": 1.7344, "total_contest": 0.2554, "won_contest": 0.0567, "ball_recovery": 3.4177, "challenges_lost": 0.2153, "fouls": 1.4019, "fouls_drawn": 0.9143, "blocks": 0.9702, "goal_rate": 0.1736, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.126, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0734, "expected_assists": 0.0088, "shots_on_target": 0.2569, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1687, "ball_carries": 22.2439, "total_progression": 64.9505, "progressive_carries": 0.4624, "key_pass": 0.2052, "shots_off_target": 0.2729, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Sergio Camello", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.91 (squad xG sum 1.3935, xG scale 1.3728, xA scale 1.7141, team xA 1.24 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2643, "tackles": 1.5131, "tackles_won": 0.8579, "clearances": 5.6522, "aerial_won": 2.7328, "total_shots": 0.5298, "rating": 6.9564, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 60.5301, "accurate_pass": 55.8533, "duels_won": 6.2482, "total_long_balls": 3.4388, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2776, "total_own_half_passes": 42.6941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 41.179, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.836, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6743, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 75.6673, "possession_lost": 5.8807, "dispossessed": 0.5038, "duels_lost": 3.8289, "aerial_lost": 1.7344, "total_contest": 0.2554, 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1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.913, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3935, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7254, "team_expected_assists": 1.2435, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3728, "xa_scale": 1.7141, "opponent_lambda": 1.071, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0734, "after": 0.1008 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0088, "after": 0.0151 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2643, "tackles": 1.5131, "tackles_won": 0.8579, "clearances": 5.6522, "aerial_won": 2.7328, "total_shots": 0.5298, "rating": 6.9564, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 60.5301, "accurate_pass": 55.8533, "duels_won": 6.2482, "total_long_balls": 3.4388, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2776, "total_own_half_passes": 42.6941, "accurate_own_half_passes": 41.179, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.836, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6743, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 75.6673, "possession_lost": 5.8807, "dispossessed": 0.5038, "duels_lost": 3.8289, "aerial_lost": 1.7344, "total_contest": 0.2554, "won_contest": 0.0567, "ball_recovery": 3.4177, "challenges_lost": 0.2153, "fouls": 1.4019, "fouls_drawn": 0.9143, "blocks": 0.9702, "goal_rate": 0.1736, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.126, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1008, "expected_assists": 0.0151, "shots_on_target": 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20.7283, "crosses_total": 4.2474, "crosses_accurate": 0.6497, "touches": 71.5918, "possession_lost": 12.6877, "dispossessed": 0.3007, "duels_lost": 2.4672, "aerial_lost": 0.34, "total_contest": 0.836, "won_contest": 0.5117, "ball_recovery": 4.8356, "challenges_lost": 1.1635, "fouls": 0.4228, "fouls_drawn": 0.3334, "blocks": 0.3807, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.116, "assist_rate": 0.116, "expected_goals": 0.0134, "expected_assists": 0.1029, "shots_on_target": 0.091, "big_chances_created": 0.2432, "xgot": 0.0191, "ball_carries": 14.3598, "total_progression": 34.6335, "progressive_carries": 0.6544, "key_pass": 1.0622, "shots_off_target": 0.4224, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.56, "opponent_faced": "Jorge de Frutos", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", 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"margin": -0.017908 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.009959 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009919 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.008693 } ], "others_margin": -0.046288 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0019, quality 0.567)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2068, "tackles": 2.4426, "tackles_won": 1.6201, "clearances": 2.4154, "aerial_won": 1.1989, "total_shots": 0.6317, "rating": 6.7048, "minutes": 86.16, "total_pass": 38.8543, "accurate_pass": 32.9492, "duels_won": 7.2404, "total_long_balls": 2.276, "accurate_long_balls": 0.794, "total_own_half_passes": 15.6447, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.3616, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.2097, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.5876, "crosses_total": 1.7067, "crosses_accurate": 0.0961, "touches": 64.1875, "possession_lost": 12.0357, "dispossessed": 0.5554, "duels_lost": 5.7154, "aerial_lost": 0.7159, "total_contest": 1.0704, "won_contest": 0.7056, "ball_recovery": 3.7635, "challenges_lost": 1.3946, "fouls": 2.793, "fouls_drawn": 1.6968, "blocks": 0.3348, "goals": 0.0046, 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"matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Álvaro García", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.239, "tackles": 2.4426, "tackles_won": 1.6283, "clearances": 2.4154, "aerial_won": 1.1989, "total_shots": 0.6343, "rating": 6.7048, "minutes": 86.16, "total_pass": 38.8543, "accurate_pass": 32.9492, "duels_won": 7.2404, "total_long_balls": 2.276, "accurate_long_balls": 0.794, "total_own_half_passes": 15.6447, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.3616, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.2097, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.5876, "crosses_total": 1.7092, "crosses_accurate": 0.0961, "touches": 64.1875, 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"importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0821 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0491 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0145 } ], "others": -0.0497, "total": 0.3477, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.082071 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.049115 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.018827 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017543 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.01453 } ], "others_margin": -0.049654 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.80050802230835, "model_output": 6.8005, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.038 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.032 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0217 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0122 } ], "others": -0.0213, "total": 6.8005, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.037966 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.03199 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.021716 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.013087 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.012229 } ], "others_margin": -0.021196 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0189, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0978, "tackles": 1.3972, "tackles_won": 0.8668, "clearances": 3.5226, "aerial_won": 1.0087, "total_shots": 0.3543, "rating": 6.8005, "minutes": 86.9, "total_pass": 62.8316, "accurate_pass": 60.3026, "duels_won": 3.3403, "total_long_balls": 2.8475, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0607, "total_own_half_passes": 47.7224, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.3845, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1092, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.918, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 74.6992, "possession_lost": 4.0285, "dispossessed": 0.2086, "duels_lost": 2.1362, "aerial_lost": 0.6142, "total_contest": 0.4369, "won_contest": 0.328, "ball_recovery": 4.0967, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.2046, "fouls_drawn": 1.1554, "blocks": 0.8228, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0688, "expected_assists": 0.008, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.8629, "total_progression": 37.8303, "progressive_carries": 0.2086, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3543 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0189, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0978, "tackles": 1.3972, "tackles_won": 0.8668, "clearances": 3.5226, "aerial_won": 1.0087, "total_shots": 0.3543, "rating": 6.8005, "minutes": 86.9, "total_pass": 62.8316, "accurate_pass": 60.3026, "duels_won": 3.3403, "total_long_balls": 2.8475, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0607, "total_own_half_passes": 47.7224, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.3845, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1092, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.918, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 74.6992, "possession_lost": 4.0285, "dispossessed": 0.2086, "duels_lost": 2.1362, "aerial_lost": 0.6142, "total_contest": 0.4369, "won_contest": 0.328, "ball_recovery": 4.0967, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.2046, "fouls_drawn": 1.1554, "blocks": 0.8228, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0688, "expected_assists": 0.008, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.8629, "total_progression": 37.8303, "progressive_carries": 0.2086, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3543 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0978, "tackles": 1.3972, "tackles_won": 0.8668, "clearances": 3.5226, "aerial_won": 1.0087, "total_shots": 0.3543, "rating": 6.8005, "minutes": 86.9, "total_pass": 62.8316, "accurate_pass": 60.3026, "duels_won": 3.3403, "total_long_balls": 2.8475, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0607, "total_own_half_passes": 47.7224, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.3845, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1092, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.918, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 74.6992, "possession_lost": 4.0285, "dispossessed": 0.2086, "duels_lost": 2.1362, "aerial_lost": 0.6142, "total_contest": 0.4369, "won_contest": 0.328, "ball_recovery": 4.0967, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.2046, "fouls_drawn": 1.1554, "blocks": 0.8228, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0688, "expected_assists": 0.008, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.8629, "total_progression": 37.8303, "progressive_carries": 0.2086, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3543, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Sergio Camello", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Sergio Camello", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0978, "tackles": 1.3972, "tackles_won": 0.8668, "clearances": 3.5226, "aerial_won": 1.0087, "total_shots": 0.3543, "rating": 6.8005, "minutes": 86.9, "total_pass": 62.8316, "accurate_pass": 60.3026, "duels_won": 3.3403, "total_long_balls": 2.8475, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0607, "total_own_half_passes": 47.7224, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.3845, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1092, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.918, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 74.6992, "possession_lost": 4.0285, "dispossessed": 0.2086, "duels_lost": 2.1362, "aerial_lost": 0.6142, "total_contest": 0.4369, "won_contest": 0.328, "ball_recovery": 4.0967, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.2046, "fouls_drawn": 1.1554, "blocks": 0.8228, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0688, "expected_assists": 0.008, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.8629, "total_progression": 37.8303, "progressive_carries": 0.2086, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3543, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Sergio Camello", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.91 (squad xG sum 1.3935, xG scale 1.3728, xA scale 1.7141, team xA 1.24 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0978, "tackles": 1.3972, "tackles_won": 0.8668, "clearances": 3.5226, "aerial_won": 1.0087, "total_shots": 0.3543, "rating": 6.8005, "minutes": 86.9, "total_pass": 62.8316, "accurate_pass": 60.3026, "duels_won": 3.3403, "total_long_balls": 2.8475, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0607, "total_own_half_passes": 47.7224, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.3845, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1092, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.918, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 74.6992, "possession_lost": 4.0285, "dispossessed": 0.2086, "duels_lost": 2.1362, "aerial_lost": 0.6142, "total_contest": 0.4369, "won_contest": 0.328, "ball_recovery": 4.0967, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.2046, "fouls_drawn": 1.1554, "blocks": 0.8228, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0945, "expected_assists": 0.0137, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.8629, "total_progression": 37.8303, "progressive_carries": 0.2086, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3543, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Sergio Camello", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8621 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.913, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3935, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7254, "team_expected_assists": 1.2435, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3728, "xa_scale": 1.7141, "opponent_lambda": 1.071, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0688, "after": 0.0945 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.008, "after": 0.0137 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.8629, "total_progression": 37.8303, "progressive_carries": 0.2086, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3543, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Sergio Camello", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8621, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3265, "fifa_rank": 1444.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0978, "tackles": 1.3972, "tackles_won": 0.8668, "clearances": 3.5226, "aerial_won": 1.0087, "total_shots": 0.3543, "rating": 6.8005, "minutes": 86.9, "total_pass": 62.8316, "accurate_pass": 60.3026, "duels_won": 3.3403, "total_long_balls": 2.8475, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0607, "total_own_half_passes": 47.7224, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.3845, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1092, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.918, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 74.6992, "possession_lost": 4.0285, "dispossessed": 0.2086, "duels_lost": 2.1362, "aerial_lost": 0.6142, "total_contest": 0.4369, "won_contest": 0.328, "ball_recovery": 4.0967, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.2046, "fouls_drawn": 1.1554, "blocks": 0.8228, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0945, "expected_assists": 0.0137, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.8629, "total_progression": 37.8303, "progressive_carries": 0.2086, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3543, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Sergio Camello", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0902, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8621, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0902, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0756, "squad_weight_total": 2.1341, "weight_share": 0.0354, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Orri Óskarsson", "weight": 0.7062, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7062, "runner_up": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5501 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "weight": 0.5501, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5501, "runner_up": "Orri Óskarsson", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3005 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0978, "tackles": 1.3972, "tackles_won": 0.8668, "clearances": 3.5226, "aerial_won": 1.0087, "total_shots": 0.3543, "rating": 6.8005, "minutes": 86.9, "total_pass": 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"importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0338 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0307 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0181 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0147 } ], "others": -0.0329, "total": 6.904, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.033807 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.030652 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.018071 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017812 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.014742 } ], "others_margin": -0.032873 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0037, quality 0.593)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3875, "expected_assists": 0.1243, "assists": 0.1402, "assist_rate": 0.1402, "expected_goals": 0.1477, "goals": 0.1497, "goal_rate": 0.1497, "shots_on_target": 0.5638, "total_shots": 1.671, "rating": 6.904, "minutes": 81.26, "total_pass": 34.0153, "accurate_pass": 30.0074, "duels_won": 3.0106, "total_long_balls": 2.4327, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8954, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7998, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.9696, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.2154, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.0377, "crosses_total": 1.0135, "crosses_accurate": 0.1952, "touches": 45.9669, "possession_lost": 8.3206, "dispossessed": 1.2171, "duels_lost": 4.3616, "aerial_won": 0.4427, "aerial_lost": 0.6946, "interceptions": 0.6075, "tackles_won": 0.7972, "tackles": 1.2512, "clearances": 0.6437, "total_contest": 1.7033, "won_contest": 0.9166, "challenges_lost": 1.0587, "fouls": 0.6311, "fouls_drawn": 0.4001, "blocks": 0.0368, "big_chances_created": 0.5242, "big_chances_missed": 0.1874, "xgot": 0.2826, "ball_carries": 17.1819, "total_progression": 33.8564, "progressive_carries": 1.6766, "shots_off_target": 1.1072 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16300000, "quality_factor": 0.5932, "boost_factor": 1.0037, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0187)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3875, "expected_assists": 0.1243, "assists": 0.1376, "assist_rate": 0.1376, "expected_goals": 0.1477, "goals": 0.1523, "goal_rate": 0.1523, "shots_on_target": 0.5641, "total_shots": 1.6774, "rating": 6.904, "minutes": 81.26, "total_pass": 34.0153, "accurate_pass": 30.0074, "duels_won": 3.0106, "total_long_balls": 2.4327, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8954, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7998, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.9696, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.2154, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.0377, "crosses_total": 1.0272, "crosses_accurate": 0.1952, "touches": 45.9669, "possession_lost": 8.3206, "dispossessed": 1.2171, "duels_lost": 4.3616, "aerial_won": 0.4427, "aerial_lost": 0.6946, "interceptions": 0.5962, "tackles_won": 0.7932, "tackles": 1.2512, "clearances": 0.6437, "total_contest": 1.7033, "won_contest": 0.9166, "challenges_lost": 1.0587, "fouls": 0.6356, "fouls_drawn": 0.3981, "blocks": 0.0368, "big_chances_created": 0.5242, "big_chances_missed": 0.1874, "xgot": 0.2826, "ball_carries": 17.1819, "total_progression": 33.8564, "progressive_carries": 1.6766, "shots_off_target": 1.1072 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0187, "history_matches": 31, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9029, "prior_reliability": 0.2067, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Sociedad" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", 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"opponent_defenders": "Adrià Pedrosa", "opponent_faced": "Adrià Pedrosa", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Adrià Pedrosa", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "duel_win_rate": 0.57, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.1614, "skill_edge": 0.0738, "height_edge": 0.036, "attacker_skill": 0.6121, "defender_skill": 0.4481, "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Adrià Pedrosa", "market_value": 2700000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.4481 } ], "xg_override": 0.1715 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.4427, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.6774, "after": 1.9481 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.1072, "after": 1.2859 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5641, "after": 0.6551 }, { "stat": 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.91 (squad xG sum 1.3935, xG scale 1.3728, xA scale 1.7141, team xA 1.24 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3875, "expected_assists": 0.2131, "assist_rate": 0.1376, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2354, "goal_rate": 0.1769, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6551, "total_shots": 1.9481, "rating": 6.904, "minutes": 81.26, "total_pass": 34.0153, "accurate_pass": 30.0074, "duels_won": 3.0106, "total_long_balls": 2.4327, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8954, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7998, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.9696, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.2154, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.0377, "crosses_total": 1.0272, "crosses_accurate": 0.1952, "touches": 45.9669, "possession_lost": 8.3206, "dispossessed": 1.2171, 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1.0763 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.913, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3935, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7254, "team_expected_assists": 1.2435, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3728, "xa_scale": 1.7141, "opponent_lambda": 1.071, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1715, "after": 0.2354 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1243, "after": 0.2131 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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], "others": -0.031, "total": 6.9354, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.09079 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.033241 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018299 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.016096 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.012844 } ], "others_margin": -0.030943 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 20, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0010, quality 0.529)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9706, "expected_assists": 0.0756, "assists": 0.0679, "assist_rate": 0.0679, "expected_goals": 0.0771, "goals": 0.0888, "goal_rate": 0.0888, "shots_on_target": 0.3734, "total_shots": 1.0605, "rating": 6.9354, "minutes": 77.56, "total_pass": 44.9006, "accurate_pass": 40.6156, "duels_won": 4.0552, "total_long_balls": 1.6249, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9382, "total_own_half_passes": 20.8893, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.3743, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0112, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.2411, "crosses_total": 0.5538, "crosses_accurate": 0.1868, "touches": 55.9696, "possession_lost": 6.6959, "dispossessed": 0.6606, "duels_lost": 2.6921, "aerial_won": 0.2815, "aerial_lost": 0.4531, "interceptions": 0.435, "tackles_won": 0.8128, "tackles": 2.1592, "clearances": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0068, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5135, "expected_assists": 0.0361, "assists": 0.0454, "assist_rate": 0.0454, "expected_goals": 0.0323, "goals": 0.0452, "goal_rate": 0.0452, "shots_on_target": 0.1122, "total_shots": 0.4637, "rating": 6.9271, "minutes": 78.31, "total_pass": 56.1288, "accurate_pass": 50.9467, "duels_won": 4.4982, "total_long_balls": 2.1369, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3077, "total_own_half_passes": 29.5491, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.6862, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.5797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.2605, "crosses_total": 0.0508, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.5244, "possession_lost": 7.5174, "dispossessed": 0.9746, "duels_lost": 3.6719, "aerial_won": 0.9891, "aerial_lost": 0.7007, "interceptions": 1.8294, "tackles_won": 1.2473, "tackles": 2.0069, "clearances": 1.4586, "total_contest": 0.7903, "won_contest": 0.3756, "challenges_lost": 0.6359, "fouls": 0.9461, "fouls_drawn": 1.1266, "blocks": 0.4875, "big_chances_created": 0.0337, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0045, "ball_carries": 19.4999, "total_progression": 44.9879, "progressive_carries": 0.3054, "shots_off_target": 0.3515 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.0068, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0015)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5135, "expected_assists": 0.0361, "assists": 0.0453, "assist_rate": 0.0453, "expected_goals": 0.0323, "goals": 0.0451, "goal_rate": 0.0451, "shots_on_target": 0.112, "total_shots": 0.463, "rating": 6.9271, "minutes": 78.31, "total_pass": 56.1288, "accurate_pass": 50.9467, "duels_won": 4.4982, "total_long_balls": 2.1369, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3077, "total_own_half_passes": 29.5491, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.6862, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.5797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.2605, "crosses_total": 0.0507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.5244, "possession_lost": 7.5174, "dispossessed": 0.9746, "duels_lost": 3.6719, "aerial_won": 0.9891, "aerial_lost": 0.7007, "interceptions": 1.8266, "tackles_won": 1.2454, "tackles": 2.0069, "clearances": 1.4586, "total_contest": 0.7903, "won_contest": 0.3756, "challenges_lost": 0.6359, "fouls": 0.9446, "fouls_drawn": 1.1249, "blocks": 0.4875, "big_chances_created": 0.0337, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0045, "ball_carries": 19.4999, "total_progression": 44.9879, "progressive_carries": 0.3054, "shots_off_target": 0.3515 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0015, "history_matches": 37, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8701, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Sociedad" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5135, "expected_assists": 0.0361, "assists": 0.0453, "assist_rate": 0.0453, "expected_goals": 0.0323, "goals": 0.0451, "goal_rate": 0.0451, "shots_on_target": 0.112, "total_shots": 0.4635, "rating": 6.9271, "minutes": 78.31, "total_pass": 56.1288, "accurate_pass": 50.9467, "duels_won": 4.4982, "total_long_balls": 2.1369, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3077, "total_own_half_passes": 29.5491, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.6862, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.5797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.2605, "crosses_total": 0.0507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.5244, "possession_lost": 7.5174, "dispossessed": 0.9746, "duels_lost": 3.6719, "aerial_won": 0.9891, "aerial_lost": 0.7007, "interceptions": 1.8266, "tackles_won": 1.2454, "tackles": 2.0069, "clearances": 1.4586, "total_contest": 0.7903, "won_contest": 0.3756, "challenges_lost": 0.6359, "fouls": 0.9446, "fouls_drawn": 1.1249, "blocks": 0.4875, "big_chances_created": 0.0337, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0045, "ball_carries": 19.4999, "total_progression": 44.9879, "progressive_carries": 0.3054, "shots_off_target": 0.3515 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5135, "expected_assists": 0.0361, "assists": 0.0453, "assist_rate": 0.0453, "expected_goals": 0.0385, "goals": 0.0537, "goal_rate": 0.0537, "shots_on_target": 0.1334, "total_shots": 0.5521, "rating": 6.9271, "minutes": 78.31, "total_pass": 56.1288, "accurate_pass": 50.9467, "duels_won": 4.4982, "total_long_balls": 2.1369, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3077, "total_own_half_passes": 29.5491, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.6862, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.5797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.2605, "crosses_total": 0.0507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.5244, 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}, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5135, "expected_assists": 0.0361, "assist_rate": 0.0453, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0385, "goal_rate": 0.0537, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1334, "total_shots": 0.5521, "rating": 6.9271, "minutes": 78.31, "total_pass": 56.1288, "accurate_pass": 50.9467, "duels_won": 4.4982, "total_long_balls": 2.1369, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3077, "total_own_half_passes": 29.5491, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.6862, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.5797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.2605, "crosses_total": 0.0507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.5244, "possession_lost": 7.5174, "dispossessed": 0.9746, "duels_lost": 3.6719, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.7007, "interceptions": 1.8266, "tackles_won": 1.2454, "tackles": 2.0069, "clearances": 1.4586, "total_contest": 0.7903, "won_contest": 0.3756, "challenges_lost": 0.6359, "fouls": 0.9446, "fouls_drawn": 1.1249, "blocks": 0.4875, "big_chances_created": 0.0337, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0054, "ball_carries": 19.4999, "total_progression": 44.9879, "progressive_carries": 0.3054, "shots_off_target": 0.4187, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1912, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.43, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss, Unai López", "opponent_faced": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss, Unai López", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.91 (squad xG sum 1.3935, xG scale 1.3728, xA scale 1.7141, team xA 1.24 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5135, "expected_assists": 0.0619, "assist_rate": 0.0453, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0529, "goal_rate": 0.0537, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1334, "total_shots": 0.5521, "rating": 6.9271, "minutes": 78.31, "total_pass": 56.1288, "accurate_pass": 50.9467, "duels_won": 4.4982, "total_long_balls": 2.1369, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3077, "total_own_half_passes": 29.5491, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.6862, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.5797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.2605, "crosses_total": 0.0507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.5244, "possession_lost": 7.5174, "dispossessed": 0.9746, "duels_lost": 3.6719, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.7007, "interceptions": 1.8266, "tackles_won": 1.2454, "tackles": 2.0069, "clearances": 1.4586, "total_contest": 0.7903, "won_contest": 0.3756, "challenges_lost": 0.6359, "fouls": 0.9446, "fouls_drawn": 1.1249, "blocks": 0.4875, "big_chances_created": 0.0337, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0074, "ball_carries": 19.4999, "total_progression": 44.9879, "progressive_carries": 0.3054, "shots_off_target": 0.4187, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1912, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.43, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss, Unai López", "opponent_faced": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss, Unai López", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1718, "creation_factor": 1.1069 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.913, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3935, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7254, "team_expected_assists": 1.2435, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3728, "xa_scale": 1.7141, 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"team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0515, "goal_rate": 0.0537, "scorer_weight": 0.062, "squad_weight_total": 2.1341, "weight_share": 0.029, "finishing_factor": 1.1718, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Orri Óskarsson", "weight": 0.7062, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7062, "runner_up": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5501 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "weight": 0.5501, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5501, "runner_up": "Orri Óskarsson", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3005 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5135, "expected_assists": 0.0619, "assist_rate": 0.0453, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0529, "goal_rate": 0.0537, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 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{ "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2067 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.075 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0636 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0444 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0401 } ], "others": -0.1034, "total": 0.5719, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.261458 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.087168 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.080394 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.060173 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.057643 } ], "others_margin": -0.166304 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.771298408508301, "model_output": 6.7713, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.055 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0133 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0103 } ], "others": -0.0357, "total": 6.7713, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.055016 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.013277 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.013176 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011094 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.010281 } ], "others_margin": -0.035777 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0062, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4124, "goals": 0.4678, "goal_rate": 0.4678, "shots_on_target": 1.0828, "total_shots": 2.4492, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "key_pass": 0.5754, "rating": 6.7713, "minutes": 78.95, "total_pass": 11.5684, "accurate_pass": 7.5205, "duels_won": 2.6405, "total_long_balls": 0.1453, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0338, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.883, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6597, "crosses_total": 0.5459, "crosses_accurate": 0.0648, "touches": 21.8148, "possession_lost": 7.0045, "dispossessed": 0.5905, "duels_lost": 4.119, "aerial_lost": 1.7381, "total_contest": 0.348, "won_contest": 0.1478, "ball_recovery": 0.9108, "challenges_lost": 0.3892, "fouls": 1.201, "fouls_drawn": 0.9223, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1159, "tackles": 0.1801, "clearances": 0.4886, "blocks": 0.2823, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.1294, "xgot": 0.7421, "offsides": 0.6986, "ball_carries": 4.158, "total_progression": 15.2812, "progressive_carries": 1.1712, "shots_off_target": 1.3664 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0062, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4124, "goals": 0.4678, "goal_rate": 0.4678, "shots_on_target": 1.0828, "total_shots": 2.4492, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "key_pass": 0.5754, "rating": 6.7713, "minutes": 78.95, "total_pass": 11.5684, "accurate_pass": 7.5205, "duels_won": 2.6405, "total_long_balls": 0.1453, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0338, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.883, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6597, "crosses_total": 0.5459, "crosses_accurate": 0.0648, "touches": 21.8148, "possession_lost": 7.0045, "dispossessed": 0.5905, "duels_lost": 4.119, "aerial_lost": 1.7381, "total_contest": 0.348, "won_contest": 0.1478, "ball_recovery": 0.9108, "challenges_lost": 0.3892, "fouls": 1.201, "fouls_drawn": 0.9223, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1159, "tackles": 0.1801, "clearances": 0.4886, "blocks": 0.2823, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.1294, "xgot": 0.7421, "offsides": 0.6986, "ball_carries": 4.158, "total_progression": 15.2812, "progressive_carries": 1.1712, "shots_off_target": 1.3664 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4588, "goals": 0.5204, "goal_rate": 0.5204, "shots_on_target": 1.2045, "total_shots": 2.7245, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "key_pass": 0.5754, "rating": 6.7713, "minutes": 78.95, "total_pass": 11.5684, "accurate_pass": 7.5205, "duels_won": 2.6405, "total_long_balls": 0.1453, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0338, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.883, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6597, "crosses_total": 0.5459, "crosses_accurate": 0.0648, "touches": 21.8148, "possession_lost": 7.0045, "dispossessed": 0.5905, "duels_lost": 4.119, "aerial_lost": 1.7381, "total_contest": 0.348, "won_contest": 0.1478, "ball_recovery": 0.9108, "challenges_lost": 0.3892, "fouls": 1.201, "fouls_drawn": 0.9223, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1159, "tackles": 0.1801, "clearances": 0.4886, "blocks": 0.2823, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.2563, "xgot": 0.8255, "offsides": 0.6986, "ball_carries": 4.158, "total_progression": 15.2812, "progressive_carries": 1.1712, "shots_off_target": 1.52, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1124, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.8, 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"price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4777 } ], "xg_override": 0.4588 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.4492, "after": 2.7245 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.3664, "after": 1.52 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 1.1294, "after": 1.2563 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 1.0828, "after": 1.2045 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.7421, "after": 0.8255 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.4678, "after": 0.5204 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.4124, "after": 0.4588 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4588, "goal_rate": 0.5204, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.2045, "total_shots": 2.7245, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "key_pass": 0.5754, "rating": 6.7713, "minutes": 78.95, "total_pass": 11.5684, 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"ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Tyrhys Dolan", "ranking": 3488 }, { "player_name": "Yann Gboho", "ranking": 3489 }, { "player_name": "Ansu Fati", "ranking": 3490 }, { "player_name": "Marcus Edwards", "ranking": 3491 }, { "player_name": "Ismaël Doukouré", "ranking": 3492 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ilan Kebbal", "ranking": 3494 }, { "player_name": "Mousa Al Tamari", "ranking": 3495 }, { "player_name": "Baptiste Santamaria", "ranking": 3496 }, { "player_name": "Quentin Merlin", "ranking": 3497 }, { "player_name": "Eddie Nketiah", "ranking": 3498 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.375, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", 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"prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9855, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9917, "goals_prevented": -0.0375, "rating": 7.0489, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 36.9163, "accurate_pass": 23.359, "total_long_balls": 27.0613, "accurate_long_balls": 13.504, "touches": 51.7787, "clearances": 1.5182, "ball_recovery": 11.7461, "high_claims": 0.9855, "punches": 1.5182, "aerial_won": 0.5327, "sweeper_actions": 0.9855, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9855, "saves_inside_box": 5.3803, "possession_lost": 14.09, "duels_won": 0.5327, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 19.6301, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.475 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1100000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9855, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4611, "goals_prevented": -0.0058, "rating": 7.0489, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 5.6893, "accurate_pass": 3.5999, "total_long_balls": 4.1705, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0811, "touches": 7.9798, "clearances": 0.234, "ball_recovery": 1.8102, "high_claims": 0.1519, "punches": 0.234, "aerial_won": 0.0821, "sweeper_actions": 0.1519, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1519, "saves_inside_box": 0.8292, "possession_lost": 2.1715, "duels_won": 0.0821, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0253, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3849, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.39, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1541, "appearance_probability": 0.109 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.4611, "goals_prevented": -0.0058, "rating": 7.0489, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 5.6893, "accurate_pass": 3.5999, "total_long_balls": 4.1705, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0811, "touches": 7.9798, "clearances": 0.234, "ball_recovery": 1.8102, "high_claims": 0.1519, "punches": 0.234, "aerial_won": 0.0821, "sweeper_actions": 0.1519, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1519, "saves_inside_box": 0.8292, "possession_lost": 2.1715, "duels_won": 0.0821, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0253, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3849, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.4611, "goals_prevented": -0.0058, "rating": 7.0489, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 5.6893, "accurate_pass": 3.5999, "total_long_balls": 4.1705, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0811, "touches": 7.9798, "clearances": 0.234, "ball_recovery": 1.8102, "high_claims": 0.1519, "punches": 0.234, "aerial_won": 0.0821, "sweeper_actions": 0.1519, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1519, "saves_inside_box": 0.8292, "possession_lost": 2.1715, "duels_won": 0.0821, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0253, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3849, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.418, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.109, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4611, "goals_prevented": -0.0058, "rating": 7.0489, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 5.6893, "accurate_pass": 3.5999, "total_long_balls": 4.1705, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0811, "touches": 7.9798, "clearances": 0.234, "ball_recovery": 1.8102, "high_claims": 0.1519, "punches": 0.234, "aerial_won": 0.0821, "sweeper_actions": 0.1519, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1519, "saves_inside_box": 0.8292, "possession_lost": 2.1715, "duels_won": 0.0821, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0253, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3849, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.418, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421086.0, "match_date": "2026-10-25", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.9, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0265, "expected_assists": 0.3275, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421073.0, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 36, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421067.0, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 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"assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083608.0, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0349, "expected_assists": 0.0177, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "tackles": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559.0", "season_name": 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"has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083252.0, "match_date": "2026-04-26", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0033, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083183.0, "match_date": "2025-12-21", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.182, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4463, "combined_rank_score": 2486.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 706.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6929, "sofascore_appearances": 14.0, "fifa_rank": 4266.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6648, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Hector Fort", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Valeriy Bondar", "ranking": 4458 }, { "player_name": "Volodymyr Brazhko", "ranking": 4459 }, { "player_name": "Jhohan Romaña", "ranking": 4460 }, { "player_name": "Branco Ampuero", "ranking": 4461 }, { "player_name": "Diego Rossi", "ranking": 4462 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Agustín Palavecino", "ranking": 4464 }, { "player_name": "Ben Cabango", "ranking": 4465 }, { "player_name": "Federico Pereira", "ranking": 4466 }, { "player_name": "Alex Palmer", "ranking": 4467 }, { "player_name": "Cédric Itten", "ranking": 4468 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 18, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 18, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.116228879425961, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.32346494906481643, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0046, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Sociedad", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (18 historical appearances) to 14.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.32); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3075, "tackles": 0.6652, "tackles_won": 0.4196, "clearances": 0.6978, "aerial_won": 0.2457, "total_shots": 0.185, "rating": 6.6648, "minutes": 13.77, "total_pass": 3.233, "accurate_pass": 2.8217, "duels_won": 0.7128, "total_long_balls": 0.4094, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2492, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0735, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0109, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1596, 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"top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2257 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0229 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0078 } ], "others": -0.0079, "total": 0.185, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.225742 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.022895 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.018252 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.013606 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.007836 } ], "others_margin": -0.007913 } }, { 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{ "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0925 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0106 } ], "others": -0.0717, "total": 0.1076, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.189885 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.092451 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016877 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.013208 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.010613 } ], "others_margin": -0.071883 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.738800525665283, "model_output": 6.7388, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.016 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0101 } ], "others": 0.0102, "total": 6.7388, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017025 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016288 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.016025 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.010757 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.01006 } ], "others_margin": 0.010176 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9989, quality 0.478)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3375, "tackles": 0.5849, "tackles_won": 0.3133, "clearances": 1.5807, "aerial_won": 0.564, "total_shots": 0.1075, "rating": 6.7388, "minutes": 24.35, "total_pass": 10.0611, "accurate_pass": 8.2998, "duels_won": 0.7244, "total_long_balls": 0.8335, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1406, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5934, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.7403, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4677, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5595, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.3315, "possession_lost": 2.1849, "dispossessed": 0.1946, "duels_lost": 0.8471, "aerial_lost": 0.6525, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6181, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2693, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0028, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.2104, "total_progression": 0.0768, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1075 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6300000, "quality_factor": 0.4781, "boost_factor": 0.9989, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0199)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3387, "tackles": 0.5849, "tackles_won": 0.3134, "clearances": 1.5807, "aerial_won": 0.564, "total_shots": 0.1054, "rating": 6.7388, "minutes": 24.35, "total_pass": 10.0611, "accurate_pass": 8.2998, "duels_won": 0.7244, "total_long_balls": 0.8335, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1406, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5934, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.7403, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4677, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5595, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.3315, "possession_lost": 2.1849, "dispossessed": 0.1946, "duels_lost": 0.8471, "aerial_lost": 0.6525, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6181, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0048, "fouls_drawn": 0.0016, "blocks": 0.2693, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0028, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.2104, "total_progression": 0.0768, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1075 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0199, "history_matches": 32, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2706, "prior_reliability": 0.2267, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Sociedad" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.4 to 24.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.32)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3461, "tackles": 0.5976, "tackles_won": 0.3202, "clearances": 1.6151, "aerial_won": 0.5763, "total_shots": 0.1098, "rating": 6.7388, "minutes": 24.88, "total_pass": 10.2801, "accurate_pass": 8.4805, "duels_won": 0.7402, "total_long_balls": 0.8516, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1437, "total_own_half_passes": 6.7369, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.8652, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5432, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6152, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.6652, "possession_lost": 2.2325, "dispossessed": 0.1946, "duels_lost": 0.8655, "aerial_lost": 0.6525, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6316, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0049, "fouls_drawn": 0.0016, "blocks": 0.2752, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0029, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.2585, "total_progression": 0.0785, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1098, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.316, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.88 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 24.88, "projection_minutes": 24.35, "minutes_scale": 1.0218, "appearance_probability": 0.316 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3461, "tackles": 0.5976, "tackles_won": 0.3202, "clearances": 1.6151, "aerial_won": 0.5763, "total_shots": 0.1098, "rating": 6.7388, "minutes": 24.88, "total_pass": 10.2801, "accurate_pass": 8.4805, "duels_won": 0.7402, "total_long_balls": 0.8516, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1437, "total_own_half_passes": 6.7369, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.8652, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5432, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6152, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.6652, "possession_lost": 2.2325, "dispossessed": 0.1946, "duels_lost": 0.8655, "aerial_lost": 0.6525, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6316, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0049, "fouls_drawn": 0.0016, "blocks": 0.2752, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0029, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.2585, "total_progression": 0.0785, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1098, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.316, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.88 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3461, "tackles": 0.5976, "tackles_won": 0.3202, "clearances": 1.6151, "aerial_won": 0.5763, "total_shots": 0.1098, "rating": 6.7388, "minutes": 24.88, "total_pass": 10.2801, "accurate_pass": 8.4805, "duels_won": 0.7402, "total_long_balls": 0.8516, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1437, "total_own_half_passes": 6.7369, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.8652, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5432, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6152, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.6652, "possession_lost": 2.2325, "dispossessed": 0.1946, "duels_lost": 0.8655, "aerial_lost": 0.6525, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6316, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0049, "fouls_drawn": 0.0016, "blocks": 0.2752, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0029, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.2585, "total_progression": 0.0785, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1098, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.316, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.88, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.418, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.316, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3461, "tackles": 0.5976, "tackles_won": 0.3202, "clearances": 1.6151, "aerial_won": 0.5763, "total_shots": 0.1098, "rating": 6.7388, "minutes": 24.88, "total_pass": 10.2801, "accurate_pass": 8.4805, "duels_won": 0.7402, "total_long_balls": 0.8516, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1437, "total_own_half_passes": 6.7369, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.8652, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5432, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6152, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.6652, "possession_lost": 2.2325, "dispossessed": 0.1946, "duels_lost": 0.8655, "aerial_lost": 0.6525, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.6316, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0049, "fouls_drawn": 0.0016, "blocks": 0.2752, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0029, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.2585, "total_progression": 0.0785, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1098, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.316, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.88, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.418, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1740, "fifa_rank": 694.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } } ] }, "Pablo Marín": { "player_id": 1139409, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 15, "height": 178, "market_value": 7400000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0232, "assist_rate": 0.0313, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0103, "goal_rate": 0.0218, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6172, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 3.244, "dispossessed": 0.6388, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.418, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0102, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0227, "finishing_factor": 1.108, "creation_factor": 1.0614, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421067.0, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 5.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0025, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083719.0, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 22, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0022, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083687.0, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0155, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083624.0, "match_date": "2026-05-14", "home_team": "Girona FC", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 56, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0375, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, 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0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0584 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.052 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0471 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0206 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0111 } ], "others": -0.051, "total": 6.6172, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.058436 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.051988 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.047052 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.020627 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.011055 } ], "others_margin": -0.051031 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9995, quality 0.491)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3393, "expected_assists": 0.0328, "assists": 0.0386, "assist_rate": 0.0386, "expected_goals": 0.0182, "goals": 0.0269, "goal_rate": 0.0269, "shots_on_target": 0.0901, "total_shots": 0.1689, "rating": 6.6172, "minutes": 27.33, "total_pass": 6.708, "accurate_pass": 5.0554, "duels_won": 1.845, "total_long_balls": 0.5436, "accurate_long_balls": 0.188, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5972, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8279, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1108, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2275, "crosses_total": 0.4706, "crosses_accurate": 0.1188, "touches": 13.3178, "possession_lost": 3.9961, "dispossessed": 0.6388, "duels_lost": 2.023, "aerial_won": 0.247, "aerial_lost": 0.3149, "interceptions": 0.3285, "tackles_won": 0.5379, "tackles": 0.5972, "clearances": 0.1662, "total_contest": 0.6949, "won_contest": 0.4298, "challenges_lost": 0.4084, "fouls": 0.5093, "fouls_drawn": 0.7044, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1662, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0712, "total_progression": 14.9643, "progressive_carries": 0.5207, "shots_off_target": 0.0788 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7400000, "quality_factor": 0.4915, "boost_factor": 0.9995, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.3 to 22.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2754, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "assists": 0.0313, "assist_rate": 0.0313, "expected_goals": 0.0148, "goals": 0.0218, "goal_rate": 0.0218, "shots_on_target": 0.0731, "total_shots": 0.1371, "rating": 6.6172, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 5.4455, "accurate_pass": 4.1039, "duels_won": 1.4977, "total_long_balls": 0.4413, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1526, "total_own_half_passes": 2.1084, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4839, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3371, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.62, "crosses_total": 0.382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0964, "touches": 10.8112, "possession_lost": 3.244, "dispossessed": 0.6388, "duels_lost": 1.6422, "aerial_won": 0.2005, "aerial_lost": 0.3149, "interceptions": 0.2667, "tackles_won": 0.4367, "tackles": 0.4848, "clearances": 0.1349, "total_contest": 0.5641, "won_contest": 0.3489, "challenges_lost": 0.4084, "fouls": 0.4134, "fouls_drawn": 0.5718, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1349, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4932, "total_progression": 12.1478, "progressive_carries": 0.4227, "shots_off_target": 0.064, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.19, "projection_minutes": 27.33, "minutes_scale": 0.8118, "appearance_probability": 0.508 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2754, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "assists": 0.0313, "assist_rate": 0.0313, "expected_goals": 0.0148, "goals": 0.0218, "goal_rate": 0.0218, "shots_on_target": 0.0731, "total_shots": 0.1371, "rating": 6.6172, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 5.4455, "accurate_pass": 4.1039, "duels_won": 1.4977, "total_long_balls": 0.4413, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1526, "total_own_half_passes": 2.1084, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4839, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3371, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.62, "crosses_total": 0.382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0964, "touches": 10.8112, "possession_lost": 3.244, "dispossessed": 0.6388, "duels_lost": 1.6422, "aerial_won": 0.2005, "aerial_lost": 0.3149, "interceptions": 0.2667, "tackles_won": 0.4367, "tackles": 0.4848, "clearances": 0.1349, "total_contest": 0.5641, "won_contest": 0.3489, "challenges_lost": 0.4084, "fouls": 0.4134, "fouls_drawn": 0.5718, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1349, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4932, "total_progression": 12.1478, "progressive_carries": 0.4227, "shots_off_target": 0.064, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2754, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "assist_rate": 0.0313, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0148, "goal_rate": 0.0218, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0731, "total_shots": 0.1371, "rating": 6.6172, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 5.4455, "accurate_pass": 4.1039, "duels_won": 1.4977, "total_long_balls": 0.4413, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1526, "total_own_half_passes": 2.1084, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4839, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3371, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.62, "crosses_total": 0.382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0964, "touches": 10.8112, "possession_lost": 3.244, "dispossessed": 0.6388, "duels_lost": 1.6422, "aerial_won": 0.2005, "aerial_lost": 0.3149, "interceptions": 0.2667, "tackles_won": 0.4367, "tackles": 0.4848, "clearances": 0.1349, "total_contest": 0.5641, "won_contest": 0.3489, "challenges_lost": 0.4084, "fouls": 0.4134, "fouls_drawn": 0.5718, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1349, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4932, "total_progression": 12.1478, "progressive_carries": 0.4227, "shots_off_target": 0.064, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.418, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.91 (squad xG sum 1.3935, xG scale 1.3728, xA scale 1.7141, team xA 1.24 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2754, "expected_assists": 0.0232, "assist_rate": 0.0313, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0103, "goal_rate": 0.0218, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0731, "total_shots": 0.1371, "rating": 6.6172, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 5.4455, "accurate_pass": 4.1039, "duels_won": 1.4977, "total_long_balls": 0.4413, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1526, "total_own_half_passes": 2.1084, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4839, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3371, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.62, "crosses_total": 0.382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0964, "touches": 10.8112, "possession_lost": 3.244, "dispossessed": 0.6388, "duels_lost": 1.6422, "aerial_won": 0.2005, "aerial_lost": 0.3149, "interceptions": 0.2667, "tackles_won": 0.4367, "tackles": 0.4848, "clearances": 0.1349, "total_contest": 0.5641, "won_contest": 0.3489, "challenges_lost": 0.4084, "fouls": 0.4134, "fouls_drawn": 0.5718, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1349, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4932, "total_progression": 12.1478, "progressive_carries": 0.4227, "shots_off_target": 0.064, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.418, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.108, "creation_factor": 1.0614 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.913, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3935, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7254, "team_expected_assists": 1.2435, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3728, "xa_scale": 1.7141, "opponent_lambda": 1.071, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.508 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2754, "expected_assists": 0.0232, "assist_rate": 0.0313, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0103, "goal_rate": 0.0218, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0731, "total_shots": 0.1371, "rating": 6.6172, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 5.4455, "accurate_pass": 4.1039, "duels_won": 1.4977, "total_long_balls": 0.4413, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1526, "total_own_half_passes": 2.1084, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4839, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3371, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.62, "crosses_total": 0.382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0964, "touches": 10.8112, "possession_lost": 3.244, "dispossessed": 0.6388, "duels_lost": 1.6422, "aerial_won": 0.2005, "aerial_lost": 0.3149, "interceptions": 0.2667, "tackles_won": 0.4367, "tackles": 0.4848, "clearances": 0.1349, "total_contest": 0.5641, "won_contest": 0.3489, "challenges_lost": 0.4084, "fouls": 0.4134, "fouls_drawn": 0.5718, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1349, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4932, "total_progression": 12.1478, "progressive_carries": 0.4227, "shots_off_target": 0.064, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.418, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.108, "creation_factor": 1.0614, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4193, "fifa_rank": 3524.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2754, "expected_assists": 0.0232, "assist_rate": 0.0313, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0103, "goal_rate": 0.0218, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0731, "total_shots": 0.1371, "rating": 6.6172, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 5.4455, "accurate_pass": 4.1039, "duels_won": 1.4977, "total_long_balls": 0.4413, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1526, "total_own_half_passes": 2.1084, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4839, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3371, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.62, "crosses_total": 0.382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0964, "touches": 10.8112, "possession_lost": 3.244, "dispossessed": 0.6388, "duels_lost": 1.6422, "aerial_won": 0.2005, "aerial_lost": 0.3149, "interceptions": 0.2667, "tackles_won": 0.4367, "tackles": 0.4848, "clearances": 0.1349, "total_contest": 0.5641, "won_contest": 0.3489, "challenges_lost": 0.4084, "fouls": 0.4134, "fouls_drawn": 0.5718, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1349, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4932, "total_progression": 12.1478, "progressive_carries": 0.4227, "shots_off_target": 0.064, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.418, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0102, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.108, "creation_factor": 1.0614, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0102, "goal_rate": 0.0218, "scorer_weight": 0.0114, "squad_weight_total": 2.1341, "weight_share": 0.0053, "finishing_factor": 1.108, "appearance_weight": 0.508, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Orri Óskarsson", "weight": 0.7062, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7062, "runner_up": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5501 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "weight": 0.5501, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5501, "runner_up": "Orri Óskarsson", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3005 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2754, "expected_assists": 0.0232, "assist_rate": 0.0313, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0103, "goal_rate": 0.0218, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0731, "total_shots": 0.1371, "rating": 6.6172, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 5.4455, "accurate_pass": 4.1039, "duels_won": 1.4977, "total_long_balls": 0.4413, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1526, "total_own_half_passes": 2.1084, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4839, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3371, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.62, "crosses_total": 0.382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0964, "touches": 10.8112, "possession_lost": 3.244, "dispossessed": 0.6388, "duels_lost": 1.6422, "aerial_won": 0.2005, "aerial_lost": 0.3149, "interceptions": 0.2667, "tackles_won": 0.4367, "tackles": 0.4848, "clearances": 0.1349, "total_contest": 0.5641, "won_contest": 0.3489, "challenges_lost": 0.4084, "fouls": 0.4134, "fouls_drawn": 0.5718, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1349, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4932, "total_progression": 12.1478, "progressive_carries": 0.4227, "shots_off_target": 0.064, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.418, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0102, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0227, "finishing_factor": 1.108, "creation_factor": 1.0614, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0227, "assist_rate": 0.0313, "provider_weight": 0.0246, "squad_weight_total": 1.2255, "weight_share": 0.0201, "creation_factor": 1.0614, "appearance_weight": 0.508, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Carlos Soler", "weight": 0.2322, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2322, "runner_up": "Luka Sučić", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2294 } ] } } ] }, "Arsen Zakharyan": { "player_id": 1066045, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 183, "market_value": 7300000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0341, "assist_rate": 0.0466, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0439, "goal_rate": 0.051, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6805, "minutes": 12, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 3.4658, "dispossessed": 0.1971, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0368, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.18, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.418, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0425, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0333, "finishing_factor": 1.0532, "creation_factor": 1.229, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421086.0, "match_date": "2026-10-25", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 5, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0725, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, 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"name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0933 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0348 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0118 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.008 } ], "others": -0.0316, "total": 6.6805, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.093302 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.034794 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021014 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.011821 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.007951 } ], "others_margin": -0.031641 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 22, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9992, quality 0.490)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.336, "expected_assists": 0.0306, "assists": 0.0499, "assist_rate": 0.0499, "expected_goals": 0.0492, "goals": 0.0546, "goal_rate": 0.0546, "shots_on_target": 0.2039, "total_shots": 0.5092, "rating": 6.6805, "minutes": 13.05, "total_pass": 7.2606, "accurate_pass": 5.5306, "duels_won": 0.461, "total_long_balls": 0.8822, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5718, "total_own_half_passes": 1.9823, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7226, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2782, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.808, "crosses_total": 1.1551, "crosses_accurate": 0.0365, "touches": 11.1962, "possession_lost": 3.7134, "dispossessed": 0.1971, "duels_lost": 0.9047, "aerial_won": 0.0865, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0888, "tackles": 0.1809, "clearances": 0.0192, "total_contest": 0.1785, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0916, "fouls": 0.1788, "fouls_drawn": 0.1936, "blocks": 0.1346, "big_chances_created": 0.0138, "big_chances_missed": 0.1424, "xgot": 0.0413, "ball_carries": 3.0675, "total_progression": 7.6824, "progressive_carries": 0.2924, "shots_off_target": 0.3053 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7300000, "quality_factor": 0.4903, "boost_factor": 0.9992, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 22, "history_shrink": 0.1852, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 13.1 to 12.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.70)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3136, "expected_assists": 0.0286, "assists": 0.0466, "assist_rate": 0.0466, "expected_goals": 0.0459, "goals": 0.051, "goal_rate": 0.051, "shots_on_target": 0.1903, "total_shots": 0.4753, "rating": 6.6805, "minutes": 12.18, "total_pass": 6.7766, "accurate_pass": 5.1619, "duels_won": 0.4303, "total_long_balls": 0.8234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5337, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8501, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6078, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9263, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5541, "crosses_total": 1.0781, "crosses_accurate": 0.0341, "touches": 10.4498, "possession_lost": 3.4658, "dispossessed": 0.1971, "duels_lost": 0.8444, "aerial_won": 0.0807, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0829, "tackles": 0.1688, "clearances": 0.0179, "total_contest": 0.1666, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0916, "fouls": 0.1669, "fouls_drawn": 0.1807, "blocks": 0.1256, "big_chances_created": 0.0129, "big_chances_missed": 0.1329, "xgot": 0.0385, "ball_carries": 2.863, "total_progression": 7.1702, "progressive_carries": 0.2729, "shots_off_target": 0.2849, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.18 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 12.18, "projection_minutes": 13.05, "minutes_scale": 0.9333, "appearance_probability": 0.696 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3136, "expected_assists": 0.0286, "assists": 0.0466, "assist_rate": 0.0466, "expected_goals": 0.0459, "goals": 0.051, "goal_rate": 0.051, "shots_on_target": 0.1903, "total_shots": 0.4753, "rating": 6.6805, "minutes": 12.18, "total_pass": 6.7766, "accurate_pass": 5.1619, "duels_won": 0.4303, "total_long_balls": 0.8234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5337, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8501, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6078, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9263, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5541, "crosses_total": 1.0781, "crosses_accurate": 0.0341, "touches": 10.4498, "possession_lost": 3.4658, "dispossessed": 0.1971, "duels_lost": 0.8444, "aerial_won": 0.0807, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0829, "tackles": 0.1688, "clearances": 0.0179, "total_contest": 0.1666, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0916, "fouls": 0.1669, "fouls_drawn": 0.1807, "blocks": 0.1256, "big_chances_created": 0.0129, "big_chances_missed": 0.1329, "xgot": 0.0385, "ball_carries": 2.863, "total_progression": 7.1702, "progressive_carries": 0.2729, "shots_off_target": 0.2849, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.18 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3136, "expected_assists": 0.0286, "assist_rate": 0.0466, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0459, "goal_rate": 0.051, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1903, "total_shots": 0.4753, "rating": 6.6805, "minutes": 12.18, "total_pass": 6.7766, "accurate_pass": 5.1619, "duels_won": 0.4303, "total_long_balls": 0.8234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5337, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8501, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6078, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9263, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5541, "crosses_total": 1.0781, "crosses_accurate": 0.0341, "touches": 10.4498, "possession_lost": 3.4658, "dispossessed": 0.1971, "duels_lost": 0.8444, "aerial_won": 0.0807, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0829, "tackles": 0.1688, "clearances": 0.0179, "total_contest": 0.1666, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0916, "fouls": 0.1669, "fouls_drawn": 0.1807, "blocks": 0.1256, "big_chances_created": 0.0129, "big_chances_missed": 0.1329, "xgot": 0.0385, "ball_carries": 2.863, "total_progression": 7.1702, "progressive_carries": 0.2729, "shots_off_target": 0.2849, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.18, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.418, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.91 (squad xG sum 1.3935, xG scale 1.3728, xA scale 1.7141, team xA 1.24 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3136, "expected_assists": 0.0341, "assist_rate": 0.0466, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0439, "goal_rate": 0.051, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1903, "total_shots": 0.4753, "rating": 6.6805, "minutes": 12.18, "total_pass": 6.7766, "accurate_pass": 5.1619, "duels_won": 0.4303, "total_long_balls": 0.8234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5337, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8501, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6078, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9263, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5541, "crosses_total": 1.0781, "crosses_accurate": 0.0341, "touches": 10.4498, "possession_lost": 3.4658, "dispossessed": 0.1971, "duels_lost": 0.8444, "aerial_won": 0.0807, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0829, "tackles": 0.1688, "clearances": 0.0179, "total_contest": 0.1666, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0916, "fouls": 0.1669, "fouls_drawn": 0.1807, "blocks": 0.1256, "big_chances_created": 0.0129, "big_chances_missed": 0.1329, "xgot": 0.0368, "ball_carries": 2.863, "total_progression": 7.1702, "progressive_carries": 0.2729, "shots_off_target": 0.2849, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.18, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.418, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0532, "creation_factor": 1.229 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.913, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3935, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7254, "team_expected_assists": 1.2435, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3728, "xa_scale": 1.7141, "opponent_lambda": 1.071, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.696 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0286, "after": 0.0341 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3136, "expected_assists": 0.0341, "assist_rate": 0.0466, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0439, "goal_rate": 0.051, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1903, "total_shots": 0.4753, "rating": 6.6805, "minutes": 12.18, "total_pass": 6.7766, "accurate_pass": 5.1619, "duels_won": 0.4303, "total_long_balls": 0.8234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5337, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8501, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6078, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9263, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5541, "crosses_total": 1.0781, "crosses_accurate": 0.0341, "touches": 10.4498, "possession_lost": 3.4658, "dispossessed": 0.1971, "duels_lost": 0.8444, "aerial_won": 0.0807, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0829, "tackles": 0.1688, "clearances": 0.0179, "total_contest": 0.1666, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0916, "fouls": 0.1669, "fouls_drawn": 0.1807, "blocks": 0.1256, "big_chances_created": 0.0129, "big_chances_missed": 0.1329, "xgot": 0.0368, "ball_carries": 2.863, "total_progression": 7.1702, "progressive_carries": 0.2729, "shots_off_target": 0.2849, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.18, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.418, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0532, "creation_factor": 1.229, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4159, "fifa_rank": 3517.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3136, "expected_assists": 0.0341, "assist_rate": 0.0466, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0439, "goal_rate": 0.051, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1903, "total_shots": 0.4753, "rating": 6.6805, "minutes": 12.18, "total_pass": 6.7766, "accurate_pass": 5.1619, "duels_won": 0.4303, "total_long_balls": 0.8234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5337, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8501, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6078, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9263, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5541, "crosses_total": 1.0781, "crosses_accurate": 0.0341, "touches": 10.4498, "possession_lost": 3.4658, "dispossessed": 0.1971, "duels_lost": 0.8444, "aerial_won": 0.0807, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0829, "tackles": 0.1688, "clearances": 0.0179, "total_contest": 0.1666, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0916, "fouls": 0.1669, "fouls_drawn": 0.1807, "blocks": 0.1256, "big_chances_created": 0.0129, "big_chances_missed": 0.1329, "xgot": 0.0368, "ball_carries": 2.863, "total_progression": 7.1702, "progressive_carries": 0.2729, "shots_off_target": 0.2849, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.18, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.418, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0425, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0532, "creation_factor": 1.229, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0425, "goal_rate": 0.051, "scorer_weight": 0.0462, "squad_weight_total": 2.1341, "weight_share": 0.0217, "finishing_factor": 1.0532, "appearance_weight": 0.696, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Orri Óskarsson", "weight": 0.7062, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7062, "runner_up": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5501 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "weight": 0.5501, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5501, "runner_up": "Orri Óskarsson", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3005 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3136, "expected_assists": 0.0341, "assist_rate": 0.0466, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0439, "goal_rate": 0.051, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1903, "total_shots": 0.4753, "rating": 6.6805, "minutes": 12.18, "total_pass": 6.7766, "accurate_pass": 5.1619, "duels_won": 0.4303, "total_long_balls": 0.8234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5337, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8501, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6078, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9263, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5541, "crosses_total": 1.0781, "crosses_accurate": 0.0341, "touches": 10.4498, "possession_lost": 3.4658, "dispossessed": 0.1971, "duels_lost": 0.8444, "aerial_won": 0.0807, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0829, "tackles": 0.1688, "clearances": 0.0179, "total_contest": 0.1666, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0916, "fouls": 0.1669, "fouls_drawn": 0.1807, "blocks": 0.1256, "big_chances_created": 0.0129, "big_chances_missed": 0.1329, "xgot": 0.0368, "ball_carries": 2.863, "total_progression": 7.1702, "progressive_carries": 0.2729, "shots_off_target": 0.2849, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.18, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.418, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0425, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0333, "finishing_factor": 1.0532, "creation_factor": 1.229, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0333, "assist_rate": 0.0466, "provider_weight": 0.0419, "squad_weight_total": 1.2255, "weight_share": 0.0342, "creation_factor": 1.229, "appearance_weight": 0.696, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Carlos Soler", "weight": 0.2322, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2322, "runner_up": "Luka Sučić", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2294 } ] } } ] }, "Takefusa Kubo": { "player_id": 880218, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 174, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0455, "goal_rate": 0.0396, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0432, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6977, "minutes": 19, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 2.8101, "dispossessed": 0.478, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0926, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0058, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 11, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.447, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.89, "substitution_rule_cap": 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"league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416332.0, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416340.0, "match_date": "2026-09-03", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, 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"ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 315.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.025, "sofascore_appearances": 24.0, "fifa_rank": 757.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6977, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Takefusa Kubo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Carlo Armiento", "ranking": 1223 }, { "player_name": "Jeyson Rojas", "ranking": 1224 }, { "player_name": "Chang-seok Lim", "ranking": 1225 }, { "player_name": "Nicola Nanni", "ranking": 1226 }, { "player_name": "Nikola Vlašić", "ranking": 1227 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Trevoh Chalobah", "ranking": 1229 }, { "player_name": "Moussa Niakhaté", "ranking": 1230 }, { "player_name": "Mario Pašalić", "ranking": 1231 }, { "player_name": "Shohruh Gadoev", "ranking": 1232 }, { "player_name": "Matthieu 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"accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0751 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0311 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0246 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0232 } ], "others": 0.0361, "total": 0.6697, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.366098 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.145468 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.054497 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.041156 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.037344 } ], "others_margin": 0.055218 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.697710037231445, "model_output": 6.6977, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], 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"others_margin": 0.084907 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7450406551361084, "model_output": 0.745, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2282 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0675 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0298 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0278 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0233 } ], "others": 0.1887, "total": 0.745, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.400353 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.136038 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 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{ "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.019215 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.015854 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.011776 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.008269 } ], "others_margin": 0.007987 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0033, quality 0.603)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0695, "goals": 0.092, "goal_rate": 0.092, "shots_on_target": 0.1953, "total_shots": 0.6839, "expected_assists": 0.0659, "key_pass": 0.7475, "rating": 6.7678, "minutes": 26.73, "total_pass": 11.8659, "accurate_pass": 9.085, "duels_won": 3.0107, "total_long_balls": 0.9517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4038, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.9962, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9204, "crosses_total": 1.0497, "crosses_accurate": 0.2163, "touches": 21.5828, "possession_lost": 6.3358, "dispossessed": 0.3923, "duels_lost": 2.7509, "aerial_lost": 0.3386, "total_contest": 2.1764, "won_contest": 1.2166, "ball_recovery": 1.8874, "challenges_lost": 0.389, "fouls": 0.6713, "fouls_drawn": 0.9278, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1072, "tackles_won": 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"name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5069 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0984 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0545 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0287 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0281 } ], "others": 0.0749, "total": 0.5096, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.506936 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.098413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.054549 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.028704 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.028087 } ], "others_margin": 0.074804 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.680523872375488, "model_output": 6.6805, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0933 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0348 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0118 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.008 } ], "others": -0.0316, "total": 6.6805, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.093302 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.034794 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021014 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.011821 }, { "name": "totalPass", 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the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3136, "expected_assists": 0.0286, "assist_rate": 0.0466, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0459, "goal_rate": 0.051, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1903, "total_shots": 0.4753, "rating": 6.6805, "minutes": 12.18, "total_pass": 6.7766, "accurate_pass": 5.1619, "duels_won": 0.4303, "total_long_balls": 0.8234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5337, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8501, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6078, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9263, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5541, "crosses_total": 1.0781, "crosses_accurate": 0.0341, "touches": 10.4498, "possession_lost": 3.4658, "dispossessed": 0.1971, "duels_lost": 0.8444, "aerial_won": 0.0807, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0829, "tackles": 0.1688, "clearances": 0.0179, "total_contest": 0.1666, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0916, "fouls": 0.1669, "fouls_drawn": 0.1807, "blocks": 0.1256, "big_chances_created": 0.0129, "big_chances_missed": 0.1329, "xgot": 0.0385, "ball_carries": 2.863, "total_progression": 7.1702, "progressive_carries": 0.2729, "shots_off_target": 0.2849, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.18, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.418, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.91 (squad xG sum 1.3935, xG scale 1.3728, xA scale 1.7141, team xA 1.24 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3136, "expected_assists": 0.0341, "assist_rate": 0.0466, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0439, "goal_rate": 0.051, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1903, "total_shots": 0.4753, "rating": 6.6805, "minutes": 12.18, "total_pass": 6.7766, "accurate_pass": 5.1619, "duels_won": 0.4303, "total_long_balls": 0.8234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5337, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8501, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6078, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9263, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5541, "crosses_total": 1.0781, "crosses_accurate": 0.0341, "touches": 10.4498, "possession_lost": 3.4658, "dispossessed": 0.1971, "duels_lost": 0.8444, "aerial_won": 0.0807, "aerial_lost": 0.3183, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0829, "tackles": 0.1688, "clearances": 0.0179, "total_contest": 0.1666, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0916, "fouls": 0.1669, "fouls_drawn": 0.1807, "blocks": 0.1256, "big_chances_created": 0.0129, "big_chances_missed": 0.1329, "xgot": 0.0368, "ball_carries": 2.863, "total_progression": 7.1702, "progressive_carries": 0.2729, "shots_off_target": 0.2849, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.696, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.18, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.418, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0532, "creation_factor": 1.229 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.913, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3935, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7254, "team_expected_assists": 1.2435, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3728, "xa_scale": 1.7141, "opponent_lambda": 1.071, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.696 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0286, "after": 0.0341 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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-2.358385, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.504986 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.209304 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.192808 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.069123 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.067254 } ], "others_margin": -0.214412 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.09013936668634415, "model_output": 0.0901, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1464 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0555 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0159 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0077 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0057 } ], "others": -0.008, "total": 0.0901, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.616937 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.390672 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.147551 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.080499 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.05991 } ], "others_margin": -0.084561 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.1689414381980896, "model_output": 0.1689, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3649 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2728 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.1145 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0412 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0306 } ], "others": 0.008, "total": 0.1689, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.364908 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.272799 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.114532 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.041177 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.030612 } ], "others_margin": 0.008034 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.61721658706665, "model_output": 6.6172, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0584 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.052 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0471 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0206 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0111 } ], "others": -0.051, "total": 6.6172, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.058436 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.051988 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.047052 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.020627 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.011055 } ], "others_margin": -0.051031 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9995, quality 0.491)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3393, "expected_assists": 0.0328, "assists": 0.0386, "assist_rate": 0.0386, "expected_goals": 0.0182, "goals": 0.0269, "goal_rate": 0.0269, "shots_on_target": 0.0901, "total_shots": 0.1689, "rating": 6.6172, "minutes": 27.33, "total_pass": 6.708, "accurate_pass": 5.0554, "duels_won": 1.845, "total_long_balls": 0.5436, "accurate_long_balls": 0.188, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5972, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8279, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1108, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2275, "crosses_total": 0.4706, "crosses_accurate": 0.1188, "touches": 13.3178, "possession_lost": 3.9961, "dispossessed": 0.6388, "duels_lost": 2.023, "aerial_won": 0.247, "aerial_lost": 0.3149, "interceptions": 0.3285, "tackles_won": 0.5379, "tackles": 0.5972, "clearances": 0.1662, "total_contest": 0.6949, "won_contest": 0.4298, "challenges_lost": 0.4084, "fouls": 0.5093, "fouls_drawn": 0.7044, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1662, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0712, "total_progression": 14.9643, "progressive_carries": 0.5207, "shots_off_target": 0.0788 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7400000, "quality_factor": 0.4915, "boost_factor": 0.9995, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.3 to 22.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2754, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "assists": 0.0313, "assist_rate": 0.0313, "expected_goals": 0.0148, "goals": 0.0218, "goal_rate": 0.0218, "shots_on_target": 0.0731, "total_shots": 0.1371, "rating": 6.6172, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 5.4455, "accurate_pass": 4.1039, "duels_won": 1.4977, "total_long_balls": 0.4413, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1526, "total_own_half_passes": 2.1084, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4839, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3371, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.62, "crosses_total": 0.382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0964, "touches": 10.8112, "possession_lost": 3.244, "dispossessed": 0.6388, "duels_lost": 1.6422, "aerial_won": 0.2005, "aerial_lost": 0.3149, "interceptions": 0.2667, "tackles_won": 0.4367, "tackles": 0.4848, "clearances": 0.1349, "total_contest": 0.5641, "won_contest": 0.3489, "challenges_lost": 0.4084, "fouls": 0.4134, "fouls_drawn": 0.5718, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1349, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4932, "total_progression": 12.1478, "progressive_carries": 0.4227, "shots_off_target": 0.064, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.19, "projection_minutes": 27.33, "minutes_scale": 0.8118, "appearance_probability": 0.508 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2754, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "assists": 0.0313, "assist_rate": 0.0313, "expected_goals": 0.0148, "goals": 0.0218, "goal_rate": 0.0218, "shots_on_target": 0.0731, "total_shots": 0.1371, "rating": 6.6172, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 5.4455, "accurate_pass": 4.1039, "duels_won": 1.4977, "total_long_balls": 0.4413, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1526, "total_own_half_passes": 2.1084, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4839, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3371, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.62, "crosses_total": 0.382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0964, "touches": 10.8112, "possession_lost": 3.244, "dispossessed": 0.6388, "duels_lost": 1.6422, "aerial_won": 0.2005, "aerial_lost": 0.3149, "interceptions": 0.2667, "tackles_won": 0.4367, "tackles": 0.4848, "clearances": 0.1349, "total_contest": 0.5641, "won_contest": 0.3489, "challenges_lost": 0.4084, "fouls": 0.4134, "fouls_drawn": 0.5718, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1349, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4932, "total_progression": 12.1478, "progressive_carries": 0.4227, "shots_off_target": 0.064, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2754, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "assist_rate": 0.0313, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0148, "goal_rate": 0.0218, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0731, "total_shots": 0.1371, "rating": 6.6172, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 5.4455, "accurate_pass": 4.1039, "duels_won": 1.4977, "total_long_balls": 0.4413, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1526, "total_own_half_passes": 2.1084, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4839, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3371, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.62, "crosses_total": 0.382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0964, "touches": 10.8112, "possession_lost": 3.244, "dispossessed": 0.6388, "duels_lost": 1.6422, "aerial_won": 0.2005, "aerial_lost": 0.3149, "interceptions": 0.2667, "tackles_won": 0.4367, "tackles": 0.4848, "clearances": 0.1349, "total_contest": 0.5641, "won_contest": 0.3489, "challenges_lost": 0.4084, "fouls": 0.4134, "fouls_drawn": 0.5718, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1349, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4932, "total_progression": 12.1478, "progressive_carries": 0.4227, "shots_off_target": 0.064, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.418, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.91 (squad xG sum 1.3935, xG scale 1.3728, xA scale 1.7141, team xA 1.24 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2754, "expected_assists": 0.0232, "assist_rate": 0.0313, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0103, "goal_rate": 0.0218, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0731, "total_shots": 0.1371, "rating": 6.6172, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 5.4455, "accurate_pass": 4.1039, "duels_won": 1.4977, "total_long_balls": 0.4413, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1526, "total_own_half_passes": 2.1084, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4839, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3371, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.62, "crosses_total": 0.382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0964, "touches": 10.8112, "possession_lost": 3.244, "dispossessed": 0.6388, "duels_lost": 1.6422, "aerial_won": 0.2005, "aerial_lost": 0.3149, "interceptions": 0.2667, "tackles_won": 0.4367, "tackles": 0.4848, "clearances": 0.1349, "total_contest": 0.5641, "won_contest": 0.3489, "challenges_lost": 0.4084, "fouls": 0.4134, "fouls_drawn": 0.5718, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1349, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4932, "total_progression": 12.1478, "progressive_carries": 0.4227, "shots_off_target": 0.064, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.418, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.108, "creation_factor": 1.0614 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.913, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3935, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7254, "team_expected_assists": 1.2435, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3728, "xa_scale": 1.7141, "opponent_lambda": 1.071, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.508 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2754, "expected_assists": 0.0232, "assist_rate": 0.0313, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0103, "goal_rate": 0.0218, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0731, "total_shots": 0.1371, "rating": 6.6172, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 5.4455, "accurate_pass": 4.1039, "duels_won": 1.4977, "total_long_balls": 0.4413, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1526, "total_own_half_passes": 2.1084, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4839, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3371, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.62, "crosses_total": 0.382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0964, "touches": 10.8112, "possession_lost": 3.244, "dispossessed": 0.6388, "duels_lost": 1.6422, "aerial_won": 0.2005, "aerial_lost": 0.3149, "interceptions": 0.2667, "tackles_won": 0.4367, "tackles": 0.4848, "clearances": 0.1349, "total_contest": 0.5641, "won_contest": 0.3489, "challenges_lost": 0.4084, "fouls": 0.4134, "fouls_drawn": 0.5718, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1349, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4932, "total_progression": 12.1478, "progressive_carries": 0.4227, "shots_off_target": 0.064, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.418, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.108, "creation_factor": 1.0614, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4193, "fifa_rank": 3524.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2754, "expected_assists": 0.0232, "assist_rate": 0.0313, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0103, "goal_rate": 0.0218, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0731, "total_shots": 0.1371, "rating": 6.6172, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 5.4455, "accurate_pass": 4.1039, "duels_won": 1.4977, "total_long_balls": 0.4413, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1526, "total_own_half_passes": 2.1084, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4839, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3371, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.62, "crosses_total": 0.382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0964, "touches": 10.8112, "possession_lost": 3.244, "dispossessed": 0.6388, "duels_lost": 1.6422, "aerial_won": 0.2005, "aerial_lost": 0.3149, "interceptions": 0.2667, "tackles_won": 0.4367, "tackles": 0.4848, "clearances": 0.1349, "total_contest": 0.5641, "won_contest": 0.3489, "challenges_lost": 0.4084, "fouls": 0.4134, "fouls_drawn": 0.5718, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1349, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4932, "total_progression": 12.1478, "progressive_carries": 0.4227, "shots_off_target": 0.064, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.418, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0102, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.108, "creation_factor": 1.0614, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0102, "goal_rate": 0.0218, "scorer_weight": 0.0114, "squad_weight_total": 2.1341, "weight_share": 0.0053, "finishing_factor": 1.108, "appearance_weight": 0.508, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Orri Óskarsson", "weight": 0.7062, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7062, "runner_up": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.5501 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "weight": 0.5501, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5501, "runner_up": "Orri Óskarsson", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3005 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2754, "expected_assists": 0.0232, "assist_rate": 0.0313, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0103, "goal_rate": 0.0218, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0731, "total_shots": 0.1371, "rating": 6.6172, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 5.4455, "accurate_pass": 4.1039, "duels_won": 1.4977, "total_long_balls": 0.4413, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1526, "total_own_half_passes": 2.1084, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4839, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3371, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.62, "crosses_total": 0.382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0964, "touches": 10.8112, "possession_lost": 3.244, "dispossessed": 0.6388, "duels_lost": 1.6422, "aerial_won": 0.2005, "aerial_lost": 0.3149, "interceptions": 0.2667, "tackles_won": 0.4367, "tackles": 0.4848, "clearances": 0.1349, "total_contest": 0.5641, "won_contest": 0.3489, "challenges_lost": 0.4084, "fouls": 0.4134, "fouls_drawn": 0.5718, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1349, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4932, "total_progression": 12.1478, "progressive_carries": 0.4227, "shots_off_target": 0.064, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.418, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0102, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0227, "finishing_factor": 1.108, "creation_factor": 1.0614, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0227, "assist_rate": 0.0313, "provider_weight": 0.0246, "squad_weight_total": 1.2255, "weight_share": 0.0201, "creation_factor": 1.0614, "appearance_weight": 0.508, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Carlos Soler", "weight": 0.2322, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2322, "runner_up": "Luka Sučić", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2294 } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 1.91, "expected_assists": 1.24, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 491, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 14, "avg_rating": 6.92, "possession_estimated_pct": 52.4, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.0 } }, "Rayo Vallecano": { "formation": "4-3-3", "players": { "Augusto Batalla": { "player_id": 358910, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 186, "market_value": 5800000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.133, "rating": 6.9023, "minutes": 86, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 22, "accurate_long_balls": 9, "touches": 45, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.4968, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 14.0867, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.8736, "shots_faced": 18.2, "expected_saves": 4.46, "high_pressure_saves": 1.53, "opponent_faced": "Orri Óskarsson, Mikel Oyarzabal", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416292.0, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.0088 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421052.0, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 20, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 16, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.1982 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083682.0, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9988, quality 0.472)", "stats": { "saves": 2.851, "goals_prevented": -0.133, "rating": 6.9023, "minutes": 85.72, "total_pass": 36.1815, "accurate_pass": 22.3759, "total_long_balls": 22.132, "accurate_long_balls": 8.5432, "touches": 45.1402, "clearances": 0.8436, "ball_recovery": 8.7312, "high_claims": 1.3512, "punches": 0.4968, "aerial_won": 0.242, "sweeper_actions": 0.6852, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4616, "saves_inside_box": 1.5933, "possession_lost": 14.0867, "duels_won": 0.6074, "duels_lost": 0.3029, "total_contest": 0.215, "won_contest": 0.1669, "fouls": 0.0666, "fouls_drawn": 0.0476, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3331, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8415 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5800000, "quality_factor": 0.472, "boost_factor": 0.9988, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0090)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8405, "goals_prevented": -0.133, "rating": 6.9023, "minutes": 85.72, "total_pass": 36.1815, "accurate_pass": 22.3759, "total_long_balls": 22.132, "accurate_long_balls": 8.5432, "touches": 45.1402, "clearances": 0.8436, "ball_recovery": 8.7312, "high_claims": 1.3512, "punches": 0.4968, "aerial_won": 0.242, "sweeper_actions": 0.6852, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4616, "saves_inside_box": 1.5933, "possession_lost": 14.0867, "duels_won": 0.6074, "duels_lost": 0.3029, "total_contest": 0.215, "won_contest": 0.1669, "fouls": 0.066, "fouls_drawn": 0.0472, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3331, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8415 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.009, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9524, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Rayo Vallecano" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.851, "after": 2.8405 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.8405, "goals_prevented": -0.133, "rating": 6.9023, "minutes": 85.72, "total_pass": 36.1815, "accurate_pass": 22.3759, "total_long_balls": 22.132, "accurate_long_balls": 8.5432, "touches": 45.1402, "clearances": 0.8436, "ball_recovery": 8.7312, "high_claims": 1.3512, "punches": 0.4968, "aerial_won": 0.242, "sweeper_actions": 0.6852, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4616, "saves_inside_box": 1.5933, "possession_lost": 14.0867, "duels_won": 0.6074, "duels_lost": 0.3029, "total_contest": 0.215, "won_contest": 0.1669, "fouls": 0.066, "fouls_drawn": 0.0472, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3331, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8415 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8405, "goals_prevented": -0.133, "rating": 6.9023, "minutes": 85.72, "total_pass": 36.1815, "accurate_pass": 22.3759, "total_long_balls": 22.132, "accurate_long_balls": 8.5432, "touches": 45.1402, "clearances": 0.8436, "ball_recovery": 8.7312, "high_claims": 1.3512, "punches": 0.4968, "aerial_won": 0.242, "sweeper_actions": 0.6852, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4616, "saves_inside_box": 1.5933, "possession_lost": 14.0867, "duels_won": 0.6074, "duels_lost": 0.3029, "total_contest": 0.215, "won_contest": 0.1669, "fouls": 0.066, "fouls_drawn": 0.0472, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3331, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8415, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.8736, "shots_faced": 17.8, "expected_saves": 4.36, "high_pressure_saves": 1.5, "opponent_faced": "Orri Óskarsson, Mikel Oyarzabal", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Orri Óskarsson, Mikel Oyarzabal", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.8736 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.8405, "goals_prevented": -0.133, "rating": 6.9023, "minutes": 85.72, "total_pass": 36.1815, "accurate_pass": 22.3759, "total_long_balls": 22.132, "accurate_long_balls": 8.5432, "touches": 45.1402, "clearances": 0.8436, "ball_recovery": 8.7312, "high_claims": 1.3512, "punches": 0.4968, "aerial_won": 0.242, "sweeper_actions": 0.6852, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4616, "saves_inside_box": 1.5933, "possession_lost": 14.0867, "duels_won": 0.6074, "duels_lost": 0.3029, "total_contest": 0.215, "won_contest": 0.1669, "fouls": 0.066, "fouls_drawn": 0.0472, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3331, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8415, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.8736, "shots_faced": 17.8, "expected_saves": 4.36, "high_pressure_saves": 1.5, "opponent_faced": "Orri Óskarsson, Mikel Oyarzabal", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.07 (squad xG sum 1.2060, xG scale 0.8881, xA scale 0.8881, team xA 0.75 = 0.70 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8405, "goals_prevented": -0.133, "rating": 6.9023, "minutes": 85.72, "total_pass": 36.1815, "accurate_pass": 22.3759, "total_long_balls": 22.132, "accurate_long_balls": 8.5432, "touches": 45.1402, "clearances": 0.8436, "ball_recovery": 8.7312, "high_claims": 1.3512, "punches": 0.4968, "aerial_won": 0.242, "sweeper_actions": 0.6852, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4616, "saves_inside_box": 1.5933, "possession_lost": 14.0867, "duels_won": 0.6074, "duels_lost": 0.3029, "total_contest": 0.215, "won_contest": 0.1669, "fouls": 0.066, "fouls_drawn": 0.0472, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3331, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8415, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.8736, "shots_faced": 18.2, "expected_saves": 4.46, "high_pressure_saves": 1.53, "opponent_faced": "Orri Óskarsson, Mikel Oyarzabal", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.071, "squad_xg_sum": 1.206, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8443, "team_expected_assists": 0.7498, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7001, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8881, "xa_scale": 0.8881, "opponent_lambda": 1.913, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 17.8, "after": 18.2 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 4.36, "after": 4.46 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.5, "after": 1.53 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8405, "goals_prevented": -0.133, "rating": 6.9023, "minutes": 85.72, "total_pass": 36.1815, "accurate_pass": 22.3759, "total_long_balls": 22.132, "accurate_long_balls": 8.5432, "touches": 45.1402, "clearances": 0.8436, "ball_recovery": 8.7312, "high_claims": 1.3512, "punches": 0.4968, "aerial_won": 0.242, "sweeper_actions": 0.6852, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4616, "saves_inside_box": 1.5933, "possession_lost": 14.0867, "duels_won": 0.6074, "duels_lost": 0.3029, "total_contest": 0.215, "won_contest": 0.1669, "fouls": 0.066, "fouls_drawn": 0.0472, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3331, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8415, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.8736, "shots_faced": 18.2, "expected_saves": 4.46, "high_pressure_saves": 1.53, "opponent_faced": "Orri Óskarsson, Mikel Oyarzabal", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1585, "fifa_rank": 956.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8405, "goals_prevented": -0.133, "rating": 6.9023, "minutes": 85.72, "total_pass": 36.1815, "accurate_pass": 22.3759, "total_long_balls": 22.132, "accurate_long_balls": 8.5432, "touches": 45.1402, "clearances": 0.8436, "ball_recovery": 8.7312, "high_claims": 1.3512, "punches": 0.4968, "aerial_won": 0.242, "sweeper_actions": 0.6852, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4616, "saves_inside_box": 1.5933, "possession_lost": 14.0867, "duels_won": 0.6074, "duels_lost": 0.3029, "total_contest": 0.215, "won_contest": 0.1669, "fouls": 0.066, "fouls_drawn": 0.0472, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3331, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8415, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.8736, "shots_faced": 18.2, "expected_saves": 4.46, "high_pressure_saves": 1.53, "opponent_faced": "Orri Óskarsson, Mikel Oyarzabal", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.1385, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sergio Camello", "weight": 0.2318, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2318, "runner_up": "Jorge de Frutos", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2011 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8405, "goals_prevented": -0.133, "rating": 6.9023, "minutes": 85.72, "total_pass": 36.1815, "accurate_pass": 22.3759, "total_long_balls": 22.132, "accurate_long_balls": 8.5432, "touches": 45.1402, "clearances": 0.8436, "ball_recovery": 8.7312, "high_claims": 1.3512, "punches": 0.4968, "aerial_won": 0.242, "sweeper_actions": 0.6852, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4616, "saves_inside_box": 1.5933, "possession_lost": 14.0867, "duels_won": 0.6074, "duels_lost": 0.3029, "total_contest": 0.215, "won_contest": 0.1669, "fouls": 0.066, "fouls_drawn": 0.0472, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3331, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8415, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.8736, "shots_faced": 18.2, "expected_saves": 4.46, "high_pressure_saves": 1.53, "opponent_faced": "Orri Óskarsson, Mikel Oyarzabal", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 0.7951, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Álvaro García", "weight": 0.1106, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1106, "runner_up": "Unai López", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1072, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Sergio Camello" ] } ] } } ] }, "Florian Lejeune": { "player_id": 88528, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 190, "market_value": 1700000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.0264, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 64, "accurate_pass": 57, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 38, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 79, "possession_lost": 8.1388, "dispossessed": 0.1319, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.04, "goals": 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"has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416305.0, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1573, "expected_assists": 0.0041, "total_shots": 3, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 58, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 10, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8.0", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268.0", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416345.0, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Espanyol", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9980, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2522, "tackles": 1.4794, "tackles_won": 0.9032, "clearances": 5.3325, "aerial_won": 1.6089, "total_shots": 1.1275, "rating": 7.0264, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 63.9004, "accurate_pass": 56.6926, "duels_won": 4.7561, "total_long_balls": 7.6527, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0508, "total_own_half_passes": 37.8362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.8516, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.0643, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.8409, "crosses_total": 0.1764, "crosses_accurate": 0.0333, "touches": 79.4485, "possession_lost": 8.1388, "dispossessed": 0.1319, "duels_lost": 3.5228, "aerial_lost": 1.5221, "total_contest": 0.2551, "won_contest": 0.1486, "ball_recovery": 5.2317, "challenges_lost": 0.4513, "fouls": 1.4091, "fouls_drawn": 1.0765, "blocks": 1.0638, "goals": 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1.2522, "after": 1.2702 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.9032, "after": 0.9172 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.1275, "after": 1.1344 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.4091, "after": 1.4039 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.0765, "after": 1.0713 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2702, "tackles": 1.4794, "tackles_won": 0.9172, "clearances": 5.3325, "aerial_won": 1.6089, "total_shots": 1.1344, "rating": 7.0264, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 63.9004, "accurate_pass": 56.6926, "duels_won": 4.7561, "total_long_balls": 7.6527, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0508, "total_own_half_passes": 37.8362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.8516, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.0643, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.8409, "crosses_total": 0.1742, "crosses_accurate": 0.0333, "touches": 79.4485, "possession_lost": 8.1388, "dispossessed": 0.1319, "duels_lost": 3.5228, "aerial_lost": 1.5221, 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"params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0544, "goal_rate": 0.04, "scorer_weight": 0.0447, "squad_weight_total": 1.1385, "weight_share": 0.0393, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sergio Camello", "weight": 0.2318, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2318, "runner_up": "Jorge de Frutos", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2011 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2702, "tackles": 1.4794, "tackles_won": 0.9172, "clearances": 5.3325, "aerial_won": 1.6089, "total_shots": 1.1344, "rating": 7.0264, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 63.9004, "accurate_pass": 56.6926, "duels_won": 4.7561, "total_long_balls": 7.6527, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0508, 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.204201 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.04954 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.041548 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.03852 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.026475 } ], "others_margin": 0.083333 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.860821723937988, "model_output": 6.8608, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0297 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0262 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0148 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0111 } ], "others": 0.0153, "total": 6.8608, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.029671 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.026154 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.014767 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.012942 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011088 } ], "others_margin": 0.01548 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0046, quality 0.650)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8594, "tackles": 1.8824, "tackles_won": 1.2861, "clearances": 2.1692, "aerial_won": 0.664, "total_shots": 0.8759, "rating": 6.8608, "minutes": 89.71, "total_pass": 40.3325, "accurate_pass": 32.529, "duels_won": 5.7881, "total_long_balls": 3.4744, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3281, "total_own_half_passes": 17.809, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.2615, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5234, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.2676, "crosses_total": 3.1467, "crosses_accurate": 0.53, "touches": 73.0206, "possession_lost": 17.2843, "dispossessed": 1.2461, "duels_lost": 4.7673, "aerial_lost": 0.9719, "total_contest": 3.3453, "won_contest": 1.953, "ball_recovery": 5.1167, "challenges_lost": 0.6362, "fouls": 0.5562, "fouls_drawn": 1.3284, "blocks": 0.2315, "goals": 0.0796, 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"expected_goals": 0.0736, "expected_assists": 0.0832, "shots_on_target": 0.2233, "big_chances_created": 0.1688, "xgot": 0.0308, "ball_carries": 19.4844, "total_progression": 114.5081, "progressive_carries": 4.2313, "key_pass": 1.0409, "shots_off_target": 0.6505 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8561, "tackles": 1.8824, "tackles_won": 1.2834, "clearances": 2.1692, "aerial_won": 0.664, "total_shots": 0.877, "rating": 6.8608, "minutes": 89.71, "total_pass": 40.3325, "accurate_pass": 32.529, "duels_won": 5.7881, "total_long_balls": 3.4744, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3281, "total_own_half_passes": 17.809, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.2615, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5234, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.2676, "crosses_total": 3.1499, "crosses_accurate": 0.53, "touches": 73.0206, "possession_lost": 17.2843, "dispossessed": 1.2461, "duels_lost": 4.7673, "aerial_lost": 0.9719, "total_contest": 3.3453, "won_contest": 1.953, "ball_recovery": 5.1167, "challenges_lost": 0.6362, "fouls": 0.5511, "fouls_drawn": 1.3253, "blocks": 0.2315, "goals": 0.0789, "goal_rate": 0.0789, "assists": 0.2162, "assist_rate": 0.2162, "expected_goals": 0.0736, "expected_assists": 0.0832, "shots_on_target": 0.2233, "big_chances_created": 0.1688, "xgot": 0.0308, "ball_carries": 19.4844, "total_progression": 114.5081, "progressive_carries": 4.2313, "key_pass": 1.0409, "shots_off_target": 0.6505, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.659, "opponent_faced": "Carlos Soler", "pressing_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Carlos Soler", "matchup_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8561, "tackles": 1.8824, "tackles_won": 1.2834, "clearances": 2.1692, "aerial_won": 0.664, "total_shots": 0.877, "rating": 6.8608, "minutes": 89.71, "total_pass": 40.3325, "accurate_pass": 32.529, "duels_won": 5.7881, "total_long_balls": 3.4744, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3281, "total_own_half_passes": 17.809, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.2615, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5234, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.2676, "crosses_total": 3.1499, "crosses_accurate": 0.53, "touches": 73.0206, "possession_lost": 17.2843, "dispossessed": 1.2461, "duels_lost": 4.7673, "aerial_lost": 0.9719, "total_contest": 3.3453, "won_contest": 1.953, "ball_recovery": 5.1167, "challenges_lost": 0.6362, "fouls": 0.5511, "fouls_drawn": 1.3253, "blocks": 0.2315, "goal_rate": 0.0789, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2162, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0736, "expected_assists": 0.0832, "shots_on_target": 0.2233, "big_chances_created": 0.1688, "xgot": 0.0308, "ball_carries": 19.4844, "total_progression": 114.5081, "progressive_carries": 4.2313, "key_pass": 1.0409, "shots_off_target": 0.6505, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.659, "opponent_faced": "Carlos Soler", "pressing_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player 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0, "assist_rate": 0.2162, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0654, "expected_assists": 0.0739, "shots_on_target": 0.2233, "big_chances_created": 0.1688, "xgot": 0.0274, "ball_carries": 19.4844, "total_progression": 114.5081, "progressive_carries": 4.2313, "key_pass": 1.0409, "shots_off_target": 0.6505, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.659, "opponent_faced": "Carlos Soler", "pressing_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0429, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.071, "squad_xg_sum": 1.206, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8443, "team_expected_assists": 0.7498, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7001, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8881, "xa_scale": 0.8881, "opponent_lambda": 1.913, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0736, "after": 0.0654 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0832, "after": 0.0739 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8561, "tackles": 1.8824, "tackles_won": 1.2834, "clearances": 2.1692, "aerial_won": 0.664, "total_shots": 0.877, "rating": 6.8608, "minutes": 89.71, "total_pass": 40.3325, "accurate_pass": 32.529, "duels_won": 5.7881, "total_long_balls": 3.4744, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3281, "total_own_half_passes": 17.809, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.2615, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.5234, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.2676, "crosses_total": 3.1499, "crosses_accurate": 0.53, "touches": 73.0206, "possession_lost": 17.2843, "dispossessed": 1.2461, "duels_lost": 4.7673, "aerial_lost": 0.9719, "total_contest": 3.3453, "won_contest": 1.953, "ball_recovery": 5.1167, "challenges_lost": 0.6362, "fouls": 0.5511, "fouls_drawn": 1.3253, "blocks": 0.2315, "goal_rate": 0.0789, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2162, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0654, "expected_assists": 0.0739, 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"count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1433 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0507 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0163 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0127 } ], "others": -0.0158, "total": 0.679, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.143313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.050676 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.016327 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.015954 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.012712 } ], "others_margin": -0.015795 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.680369853973389, "model_output": 6.6804, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.042 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0189 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0184 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0104 } ], "others": -0.0358, "total": 6.6804, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.042025 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.018878 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018366 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.013735 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.010442 } ], "others_margin": -0.035851 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.0856, "goal_rate": 0.0856, "assists": 0.1006, "assist_rate": 0.1006, "expected_goals": 0.0296, "expected_assists": 0.1159, "shots_on_target": 0.2982, "big_chances_created": 0.2691, "xgot": 0.0416, "ball_carries": 11.9904, "total_progression": 34.5749, "progressive_carries": 1.3964, "key_pass": 1.0107, "shots_off_target": 0.3791 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9975, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0038)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8279, "tackles": 1.7468, "tackles_won": 1.1067, "clearances": 2.3757, "aerial_won": 0.6511, "total_shots": 0.6747, "rating": 6.6804, "minutes": 79.17, "total_pass": 30.8175, "accurate_pass": 25.8749, "duels_won": 3.4212, "total_long_balls": 3.8054, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7743, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1163, "accurate_own_half_passes": 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"Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.07 (squad xG sum 1.2060, xG scale 0.8881, xA scale 0.8881, team xA 0.75 = 0.70 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8279, "tackles": 1.7468, "tackles_won": 1.1067, "clearances": 2.3757, "aerial_won": 0.6511, "total_shots": 0.6762, "rating": 6.6804, "minutes": 79.17, "total_pass": 30.8175, "accurate_pass": 25.8749, "duels_won": 3.4212, "total_long_balls": 3.8054, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7743, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1163, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.3351, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.7011, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5399, "crosses_total": 3.0809, "crosses_accurate": 0.4304, "touches": 51.6517, "possession_lost": 10.7563, "dispossessed": 0.3201, "duels_lost": 4.1349, "aerial_lost": 0.5419, "total_contest": 1.3481, "won_contest": 0.4891, "ball_recovery": 2.4531, "challenges_lost": 1.3239, "fouls": 1.0954, "fouls_drawn": 0.8329, "blocks": 0.1459, "goal_rate": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9979, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3589, "expected_assists": 0.1153, "assists": 0.1087, "assist_rate": 0.1087, "expected_goals": 0.1328, "goals": 0.1401, "goal_rate": 0.1401, "shots_on_target": 0.6529, "total_shots": 2.0006, "rating": 6.8987, "minutes": 79.62, "total_pass": 29.5722, "accurate_pass": 25.0562, "duels_won": 3.2516, "total_long_balls": 2.2287, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2086, "total_own_half_passes": 10.1996, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3725, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4059, "crosses_total": 0.9842, "crosses_accurate": 0.2829, "touches": 42.8253, "possession_lost": 8.36, "dispossessed": 0.8934, "duels_lost": 3.0814, "aerial_won": 0.11, "aerial_lost": 0.2674, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 1.1153, "tackles": 1.5861, "clearances": 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}, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Beñat Turrientes", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "duel_win_rate": 0.378, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9378, "skill_edge": -0.0463, "height_edge": 0.004, "attacker_skill": 0.4402, "defender_skill": 0.5431, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Beñat Turrientes", "market_value": 10600000, "role": "CM", "price_index": 0.9, "adjusted_quality": 0.5431 } ], "xg_override": 0.1245 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.11, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.9991, "after": 1.8748 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.3477, "after": 1.2639 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6514, "after": 0.6109 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1398, "after": 0.1311 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1328, "after": 0.1245 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3589, "expected_assists": 0.1153, "assist_rate": 0.1085, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1245, "goal_rate": 0.1311, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6109, "total_shots": 1.8748, "rating": 6.8987, "minutes": 79.62, "total_pass": 29.5722, "accurate_pass": 25.0562, "duels_won": 3.2516, "total_long_balls": 2.2287, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2086, "total_own_half_passes": 10.1996, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3725, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4059, "crosses_total": 0.9979, "crosses_accurate": 0.2829, "touches": 42.8253, "possession_lost": 8.36, "dispossessed": 0.8934, "duels_lost": 3.0814, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.2674, "interceptions": 0.2648, "tackles_won": 1.1128, "tackles": 1.5861, "clearances": 0.2623, "total_contest": 1.2377, "won_contest": 0.7095, "challenges_lost": 0.7219, "fouls": 0.7082, "fouls_drawn": 0.8441, "blocks": 0.0254, "big_chances_created": 0.0036, "big_chances_missed": 0.0238, "xgot": 0.0336, "ball_carries": 12.3164, "total_progression": 51.1897, "progressive_carries": 1.5993, "shots_off_target": 1.2639, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9378, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.378, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Beñat Turrientes", "opponent_faced": "Beñat Turrientes", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.07 (squad xG sum 1.2060, xG scale 0.8881, xA scale 0.8881, team xA 0.75 = 0.70 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3589, "expected_assists": 0.1024, "assist_rate": 0.1085, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1106, "goal_rate": 0.1311, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6109, "total_shots": 1.8748, "rating": 6.8987, "minutes": 79.62, "total_pass": 29.5722, "accurate_pass": 25.0562, "duels_won": 3.2516, "total_long_balls": 2.2287, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2086, "total_own_half_passes": 10.1996, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3725, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4059, "crosses_total": 0.9979, "crosses_accurate": 0.2829, "touches": 42.8253, "possession_lost": 8.36, "dispossessed": 0.8934, "duels_lost": 3.0814, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.2674, "interceptions": 0.2648, "tackles_won": 1.1128, "tackles": 1.5861, "clearances": 0.2623, "total_contest": 1.2377, "won_contest": 0.7095, 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"bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8881, "xa_scale": 0.8881, "opponent_lambda": 1.913, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1245, "after": 0.1106 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1153, "after": 0.1024 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"global_player_rank": 3649, "fifa_rank": 2400.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3589, "expected_assists": 0.1024, "assist_rate": 0.1085, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1106, "goal_rate": 0.1311, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6109, "total_shots": 1.8748, "rating": 6.8987, "minutes": 79.62, "total_pass": 29.5722, "accurate_pass": 25.0562, "duels_won": 3.2516, "total_long_balls": 2.2287, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2086, "total_own_half_passes": 10.1996, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3725, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.4059, "crosses_total": 0.9979, "crosses_accurate": 0.2829, "touches": 42.8253, "possession_lost": 8.36, "dispossessed": 0.8934, "duels_lost": 3.0814, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 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"name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0465 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0429 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0264 } ], "others": 0.0493, "total": 0.7294, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.22614 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.085847 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.060227 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.059017 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.038102 } ], "others_margin": 0.070109 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.821373462677002, "model_output": 6.8214, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0598 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.023 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0134 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0102 } ], "others": -0.0001, "total": 6.8214, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.059753 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.022959 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013437 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.010993 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.010233 } ], "others_margin": -9e-06 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 39, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0009, quality 0.533)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1925, "goals": 0.2819, "goal_rate": 0.2819, "shots_on_target": 0.7091, "total_shots": 1.5184, "expected_assists": 0.0565, "key_pass": 0.7301, "rating": 6.8214, "minutes": 72.44, "total_pass": 11.0452, "accurate_pass": 7.8655, "duels_won": 3.6427, "total_long_balls": 0.7967, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2134, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0619, "crosses_total": 2.3473, "crosses_accurate": 0.5065, "touches": 23.6858, "possession_lost": 9.2364, "dispossessed": 0.6406, "duels_lost": 4.1791, "aerial_lost": 0.8853, "total_contest": 1.7035, "won_contest": 1.1186, "ball_recovery": 1.5096, "challenges_lost": 0.7324, "fouls": 1.3787, "fouls_drawn": 1.1301, "assists": 0.1657, "assist_rate": 0.1657, "interceptions": 0.1403, "tackles_won": 0.595, "tackles": 0.7744, "clearances": 0.3784, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1848, "big_chances_missed": 0.088, "xgot": 0.3493, "offsides": 0.5595, "ball_carries": 6.8615, "total_progression": 34.2417, "progressive_carries": 1.4711, "shots_off_target": 0.8093 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10900000, "quality_factor": 0.533, "boost_factor": 1.0009, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1925, "goals": 0.2819, "goal_rate": 0.2819, "shots_on_target": 0.7091, "total_shots": 1.5184, "expected_assists": 0.0565, "key_pass": 0.7301, "rating": 6.8214, "minutes": 72.44, "total_pass": 11.0452, "accurate_pass": 7.8655, "duels_won": 3.6427, "total_long_balls": 0.7967, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2134, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0619, "crosses_total": 2.3473, "crosses_accurate": 0.5065, "touches": 23.6858, "possession_lost": 9.2364, "dispossessed": 0.6406, "duels_lost": 4.1791, "aerial_lost": 0.8853, "total_contest": 1.7035, "won_contest": 1.1186, "ball_recovery": 1.5096, "challenges_lost": 0.7324, "fouls": 1.3787, "fouls_drawn": 1.1301, "assists": 0.1657, "assist_rate": 0.1657, "interceptions": 0.1403, "tackles_won": 0.595, "tackles": 0.7744, "clearances": 0.3784, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1848, "big_chances_missed": 0.088, "xgot": 0.3493, "offsides": 0.5595, "ball_carries": 6.8615, "total_progression": 34.2417, "progressive_carries": 1.4711, "shots_off_target": 0.8093 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1812, "goals": 0.2654, "goal_rate": 0.2654, "shots_on_target": 0.6675, "total_shots": 1.4294, 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3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.44, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Sergio Gómez", "opponent_faced": "Sergio Gómez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Sergio Gómez", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.44, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9414, "skill_edge": -0.0479, "height_edge": 0.008, "attacker_skill": 0.533, "defender_skill": 0.6394, "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Sergio Gómez", "market_value": 14600000, "role": "LB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.6394 } ], "xg_override": 0.1812 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.5184, "after": 1.4294 }, { "stat": 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8636, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Álvaro García", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Shokhrukh Abdurakhmonov", "ranking": 1446 }, { "player_name": "Kuvonch Abraev", "ranking": 1447 }, { "player_name": "César Dutra", "ranking": 1448 }, { "player_name": "Samed Baždar", "ranking": 1449 }, { "player_name": "Curtis Jones", "ranking": 1450 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Natan", "ranking": 1452 }, { "player_name": "Ayoze Pérez", "ranking": 1453 }, { "player_name": "Mike Penders", "ranking": 1454 }, { "player_name": "Jarrad Branthwaite", "ranking": 1455 }, { "player_name": "Leonardo Valencia", "ranking": 1456 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.772, "history_matches": 42, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 42, "data_confidence": 0.772, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9978, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Rayo Vallecano", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 195.0, "goals_per90": 0.45454545454545453, "assists_per90": 0.45454545454545453, "shots_per90": 0.92, "shots_on_target_pct": 50.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1467 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 42 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Rayo Vallecano, rel: 0.15, gls/90: 0.45454545454545453, ast/90: 0.45454545454545453)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2462, "goals": 0.2511, "goal_rate": 0.2511, "shots_on_target": 0.5551, "total_shots": 1.6634, 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"schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-11-03T11:06:26.876327+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 612, "rows": 17180 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-31", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-24", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-19", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 87.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 84.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-20", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 35.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-15", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 70.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accuratePass": 13.4012, "expectedGoals": 0.2289, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 9.2786, "totalShots": 1.4008, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 13.4341 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.24618637561798096, "model_output": 0.2462, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2767 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0987 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 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"importance": 0.2173 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0637 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0596 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0343 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5269, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1814 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0602 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0275 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0253 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0243 } ], "others": -0.0645, "total": 0.5551, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.640773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.295883 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.088779 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.043406 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.04162 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.04004 } ], "others_margin": -0.110017 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.663320779800415, "model_output": 1.6633, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3005 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0627 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0526 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0309 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0307 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3756, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4459 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0682 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0347 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0334 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.032 } ], "others": -0.0567, "total": 1.6633, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.375643, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.445866 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.068193 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.034697 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.033388 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.031996 } ], "others_margin": -0.056689 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.09983174502849579, "model_output": 0.0998, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1287 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1119 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0634 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0522 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.051 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.065, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0099 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0099 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0111 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0089 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0039 } ], "others": 0.0089, "total": 0.0998, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.733324, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.141723 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.124496 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.123258 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.096879 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.04331 } ], "others_margin": 0.093147 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.0054633617401123, "model_output": 1.0055, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1579 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0953 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.069 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0295 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6917, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.155 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0564 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0437 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0329 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0303 } ], "others": 0.0613, "total": 1.0055, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.368585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.202153 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.064437 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.047293 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.035392 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.032607 } ], "others_margin": 0.062935 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.863579750061035, "model_output": 6.8636, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0495 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0455 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0559 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.023 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0178 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0124 } ], "others": -0.0025, "total": 6.8636, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.055948 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.022956 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.017759 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.016337 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.012449 } ], "others_margin": -0.00253 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 32, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2456, "goals": 0.2506, "goal_rate": 0.2506, "shots_on_target": 0.5538, "total_shots": 1.6597, "expected_assists": 0.0996, "key_pass": 1.0033, "rating": 6.8636, "minutes": 76.57, "total_pass": 19.7645, "accurate_pass": 14.1795, "duels_won": 2.3187, "total_long_balls": 1.4367, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9455, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.0992, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.8333, "crosses_total": 3.5776, "crosses_accurate": 0.7829, "touches": 33.4693, "possession_lost": 10.991, "dispossessed": 0.4476, "duels_lost": 2.9571, "aerial_lost": 0.8644, "total_contest": 0.9849, "won_contest": 0.2775, "ball_recovery": 3.1437, "challenges_lost": 0.4721, "fouls": 0.4655, "fouls_drawn": 0.2942, "assists": 0.1788, "assist_rate": 0.1788, "interceptions": 0.908, "tackles_won": 0.8299, "tackles": 1.1605, "clearances": 0.972, "blocks": 0.163, "big_chances_created": 0.2251, "big_chances_missed": 0.2102, "xgot": 0.2418, "offsides": 0.4807, "ball_carries": 8.1391, "total_progression": 23.4291, "progressive_carries": 1.4903, "shots_off_target": 1.1059 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1500000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9978, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0101)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2456, "goals": 0.252, "goal_rate": 0.252, "shots_on_target": 0.5522, "total_shots": 1.6508, "expected_assists": 0.0996, "key_pass": 1.0033, "rating": 6.8636, "minutes": 76.57, "total_pass": 19.7645, "accurate_pass": 14.1795, "duels_won": 2.3187, "total_long_balls": 1.4367, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9455, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.0992, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.8333, "crosses_total": 3.5648, "crosses_accurate": 0.7829, "touches": 33.4693, "possession_lost": 10.991, "dispossessed": 0.4476, "duels_lost": 2.9571, "aerial_lost": 0.8644, "total_contest": 0.9849, "won_contest": 0.2775, "ball_recovery": 3.1437, "challenges_lost": 0.4721, "fouls": 0.4725, "fouls_drawn": 0.2912, "assists": 0.1809, "assist_rate": 0.1809, "interceptions": 0.9066, "tackles_won": 0.8293, "tackles": 1.1605, "clearances": 0.972, "blocks": 0.163, "big_chances_created": 0.2251, "big_chances_missed": 0.2102, "xgot": 0.2418, "offsides": 0.4837, "ball_carries": 8.1391, "total_progression": 23.4291, "progressive_carries": 1.4903, "shots_off_target": 1.1059 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0101, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8508, "prior_reliability": 0.1467, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Rayo Vallecano" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 3.5776, "after": 3.5648 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.6597, "after": 1.6508 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.4655, "after": 0.4725 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2456, "goals": 0.252, "goal_rate": 0.252, "shots_on_target": 0.5522, "total_shots": 1.6581, "expected_assists": 0.0996, "key_pass": 1.0033, "rating": 6.8636, "minutes": 76.57, "total_pass": 19.7645, "accurate_pass": 14.1795, "duels_won": 2.3187, "total_long_balls": 1.4367, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9455, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.0992, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.8333, "crosses_total": 3.5648, "crosses_accurate": 0.7829, "touches": 33.4693, "possession_lost": 10.991, "dispossessed": 0.4476, "duels_lost": 2.9571, "aerial_lost": 0.8644, "total_contest": 0.9849, "won_contest": 0.2775, "ball_recovery": 3.1437, "challenges_lost": 0.4721, "fouls": 0.4725, "fouls_drawn": 0.2912, "assists": 0.1809, "assist_rate": 0.1809, "interceptions": 0.9066, "tackles_won": 0.8293, "tackles": 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"trained_on": { "matches": 1441, "players": 631, "rows": 22117 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-04-03", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1868, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-04", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1588, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-01", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 22.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1349, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-02", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 40.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1147, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-21", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0975, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-01", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0829, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2025-09-14", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0704, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2025-08-31", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0599, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2025-08-25", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0509, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2025-08-15", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0433, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 10.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 2.9227, "aerialWon": 1.246, "totalClearance_p90": 5.1348, "totalTackle": 1.4959, "totalTackle_p90": 1.7046 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.4491827189922333, "model_output": 0.4492, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2892 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0467 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0256 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0216 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4557 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.031 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0141 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0099 } ], "others": -0.0112, "total": 0.4492, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.137969, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.740519 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.071937 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.031115 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.021879 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.021812 } ], "others_margin": -0.024822 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.6621376276016235, "model_output": 0.6621, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2446 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0555 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0437 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0249 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3875, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7222 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.031 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.022 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0223 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0202 } ], "others": 0.0037, "total": 0.6621, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.327503, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.73505 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.047744 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.034027 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.03346 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.03016 } ], "others_margin": 0.005683 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.31078293919563293, "model_output": 0.3108, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1951 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0637 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0427 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0237 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8482, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4686 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0208 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0071 } ], "others": -0.0106, "total": 0.3108, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.164613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.803854 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.056233 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.04605 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.041936 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.0217 } ], "others_margin": -0.034273 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.3654849529266357, "model_output": 1.3655, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2927 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1441 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.11 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.033 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0239 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4157, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.2115 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1465 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1458 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0514 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0481 } ], "others": 0.0625, "total": 1.3655, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.228383, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.042577 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.12972 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.129159 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.04182 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.037579 } ], "others_margin": 0.046866 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.6436753273010254, "model_output": 0.6437, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1566 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1557 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3697, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.79 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0278 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0252 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0191 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0185 } ], "others": 0.0238, "total": 0.6437, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.314594, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.859852 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.046795 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.04235 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.032206 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.030227 } ], "others_margin": 0.03782 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.1404748558998108, "model_output": 0.1405, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0952 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0683 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4812, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1871 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0638 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0098 } ], "others": -0.0521, "total": 0.1405, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.481248, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.18707 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.063844 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.017389 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.010511 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009837 } ], "others_margin": -0.052122 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.718505859375, "model_output": 6.7185, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0681 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.057 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7988, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0103 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0093 } ], "others": -0.0156, "total": 6.7185, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.798781, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.017077 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.0145 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013478 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.009297 } ], "others_margin": -0.015641 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9932, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4461, "tackles": 0.6576, "tackles_won": 0.3087, "clearances": 1.3562, "aerial_won": 0.6393, "total_shots": 0.1395, "rating": 6.7185, "minutes": 17.5, "total_pass": 5.7517, "accurate_pass": 5.1938, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.8369, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5579, "total_own_half_passes": 3.9796, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9796, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.7722, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2143, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.517, "possession_lost": 0.8369, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3282, "aerial_lost": 0.3282, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.3282, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, 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"tackles": 0.51, "tackles_won": 0.2394, "clearances": 1.0518, "aerial_won": 0.4958, "total_shots": 0.1082, "rating": 6.7185, "minutes": 13.57, "total_pass": 4.4608, "accurate_pass": 4.0281, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.6491, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4327, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0864, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0864, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.3744, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.9418, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.8299, "possession_lost": 0.6491, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.2545, "aerial_lost": 0.3282, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2545, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4574, "total_progression": 0.1929, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1082, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.346, "tackles": 0.51, "tackles_won": 0.2394, "clearances": 1.0518, "aerial_won": 0.4958, "total_shots": 0.1082, "rating": 6.7185, "minutes": 13.57, "total_pass": 4.4608, "accurate_pass": 4.0281, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.6491, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4327, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0864, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0864, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.3744, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.9418, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.8299, "possession_lost": 0.6491, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.2545, "aerial_lost": 0.3282, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2545, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4574, "total_progression": 0.1929, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1082, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.299, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"model_output": 0.2861, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.14 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0433 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0237 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0134 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0108 } ], "others": 0.017, "total": 0.2861, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.580512 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.217981 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.101955 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.053243 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.04109 } ], "others_margin": 0.060964 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7192741632461548, "model_output": 0.7193, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.545 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2707 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.026 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0178 } ], "others": -0.0061, "total": 0.7193, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.544982 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.270659 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.029003 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.026018 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.017844 } ], "others_margin": -0.006196 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.705645561218262, "model_output": 6.7056, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0665 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0355 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0258 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0063 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0059 } ], "others": -0.0118, "total": 6.7056, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.066507 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.03555 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.025755 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.006322 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.005867 } ], "others_margin": -0.011759 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9975, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.496, "expected_assists": 0.0453, "assists": 0.0702, "assist_rate": 0.0702, "expected_goals": 0.0851, "goals": 0.0829, "goal_rate": 0.0829, "shots_on_target": 0.2854, "total_shots": 0.7175, "rating": 6.7056, "minutes": 25.53, "total_pass": 14.266, "accurate_pass": 12.0423, "duels_won": 1.8717, "total_long_balls": 0.9697, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5919, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2988, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2988, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9672, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7435, "crosses_total": 0.4725, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.2867, "possession_lost": 3.4414, "dispossessed": 0.3795, "duels_lost": 1.0359, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4056, "interceptions": 0.3517, "tackles_won": 0.3211, "tackles": 0.4465, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.5497, "won_contest": 0.4243, "challenges_lost": 0.1254, "fouls": 0.1066, "fouls_drawn": 1.0008, "blocks": 0.1066, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2402, "xgot": 0.0796, "ball_carries": 6.0703, "total_progression": 10.0027, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4321 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3000000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9975, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.5 to 22.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.50)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4269, "expected_assists": 0.039, "assists": 0.0604, "assist_rate": 0.0604, "expected_goals": 0.0732, "goals": 0.0713, "goal_rate": 0.0713, "shots_on_target": 0.2456, "total_shots": 0.6175, "rating": 6.7056, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 12.2779, "accurate_pass": 10.3641, "duels_won": 1.6109, "total_long_balls": 0.8346, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5094, "total_own_half_passes": 2.8391, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8391, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4388, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.525, "crosses_total": 0.4067, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.4596, "possession_lost": 2.9618, "dispossessed": 0.3795, "duels_lost": 0.8915, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4056, "interceptions": 0.3027, "tackles_won": 0.2764, "tackles": 0.3843, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4731, "won_contest": 0.3652, "challenges_lost": 0.1254, "fouls": 0.0917, "fouls_drawn": 0.8613, "blocks": 0.0917, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2067, "xgot": 0.0685, "ball_carries": 5.2244, "total_progression": 8.6088, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3719, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 21.97, "projection_minutes": 25.53, "minutes_scale": 0.8606, "appearance_probability": 0.499 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4269, "expected_assists": 0.039, "assists": 0.0604, "assist_rate": 0.0604, "expected_goals": 0.0732, "goals": 0.0713, "goal_rate": 0.0713, "shots_on_target": 0.2456, "total_shots": 0.6175, "rating": 6.7056, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 12.2779, "accurate_pass": 10.3641, "duels_won": 1.6109, "total_long_balls": 0.8346, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5094, "total_own_half_passes": 2.8391, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8391, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4388, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.525, "crosses_total": 0.4067, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.4596, "possession_lost": 2.9618, "dispossessed": 0.3795, "duels_lost": 0.8915, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4056, "interceptions": 0.3027, "tackles_won": 0.2764, "tackles": 0.3843, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4731, "won_contest": 0.3652, "challenges_lost": 0.1254, "fouls": 0.0917, "fouls_drawn": 0.8613, "blocks": 0.0917, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2067, "xgot": 0.0685, "ball_carries": 5.2244, "total_progression": 8.6088, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3719, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4269, "expected_assists": 0.039, "assist_rate": 0.0604, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0732, "goal_rate": 0.0713, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2456, "total_shots": 0.6175, "rating": 6.7056, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 12.2779, "accurate_pass": 10.3641, "duels_won": 1.6109, "total_long_balls": 0.8346, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5094, "total_own_half_passes": 2.8391, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8391, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4388, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.525, "crosses_total": 0.4067, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.4596, "possession_lost": 2.9618, "dispossessed": 0.3795, "duels_lost": 0.8915, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4056, "interceptions": 0.3027, "tackles_won": 0.2764, "tackles": 0.3843, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4731, "won_contest": 0.3652, "challenges_lost": 0.1254, "fouls": 0.0917, "fouls_drawn": 0.8613, "blocks": 0.0917, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2067, "xgot": 0.0685, "ball_carries": 5.2244, "total_progression": 8.6088, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3719, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.07 (squad xG sum 1.2060, xG scale 0.8881, xA scale 0.8881, team xA 0.75 = 0.70 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4269, "expected_assists": 0.0173, "assist_rate": 0.0604, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0713, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2456, "total_shots": 0.6175, "rating": 6.7056, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 12.2779, "accurate_pass": 10.3641, "duels_won": 1.6109, "total_long_balls": 0.8346, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5094, "total_own_half_passes": 2.8391, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8391, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4388, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.525, "crosses_total": 0.4067, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.4596, "possession_lost": 2.9618, "dispossessed": 0.3795, "duels_lost": 0.8915, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4056, "interceptions": 0.3027, "tackles_won": 0.2764, "tackles": 0.3843, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4731, "won_contest": 0.3652, "challenges_lost": 0.1254, "fouls": 0.0917, "fouls_drawn": 0.8613, "blocks": 0.0917, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2067, "xgot": 0.0304, "ball_carries": 5.2244, "total_progression": 8.6088, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3719, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9846, "creation_factor": 1.2404 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.071, "squad_xg_sum": 1.206, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8443, "team_expected_assists": 0.7498, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7001, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8881, "xa_scale": 0.8881, "opponent_lambda": 1.913, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.499 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0732, "after": 0.0324 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.039, "after": 0.0173 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4269, "expected_assists": 0.0173, "assist_rate": 0.0604, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0713, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2456, "total_shots": 0.6175, "rating": 6.7056, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 12.2779, "accurate_pass": 10.3641, "duels_won": 1.6109, "total_long_balls": 0.8346, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5094, "total_own_half_passes": 2.8391, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8391, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4388, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.525, "crosses_total": 0.4067, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.4596, "possession_lost": 2.9618, "dispossessed": 0.3795, "duels_lost": 0.8915, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4056, "interceptions": 0.3027, "tackles_won": 0.2764, "tackles": 0.3843, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4731, "won_contest": 0.3652, "challenges_lost": 0.1254, "fouls": 0.0917, "fouls_drawn": 0.8613, "blocks": 0.0917, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2067, "xgot": 0.0304, "ball_carries": 5.2244, "total_progression": 8.6088, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3719, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9846, "creation_factor": 1.2404, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1652, "fifa_rank": 981.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4269, "expected_assists": 0.0173, "assist_rate": 0.0604, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0713, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2456, "total_shots": 0.6175, "rating": 6.7056, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 12.2779, "accurate_pass": 10.3641, "duels_won": 1.6109, "total_long_balls": 0.8346, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5094, "total_own_half_passes": 2.8391, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8391, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4388, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.525, "crosses_total": 0.4067, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.4596, "possession_lost": 2.9618, "dispossessed": 0.3795, "duels_lost": 0.8915, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4056, "interceptions": 0.3027, "tackles_won": 0.2764, "tackles": 0.3843, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4731, "won_contest": 0.3652, "challenges_lost": 0.1254, "fouls": 0.0917, "fouls_drawn": 0.8613, "blocks": 0.0917, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2067, "xgot": 0.0304, "ball_carries": 5.2244, "total_progression": 8.6088, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3719, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0314, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9846, "creation_factor": 1.2404, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0314, "goal_rate": 0.0713, "scorer_weight": 0.0319, "squad_weight_total": 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"decomposition": { "base": 0.0946, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0353 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0087 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0037 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0023 } ], "others": -0.0086, "total": 0.0243, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.358385, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.466638 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.218866 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.201419 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.099769 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.067713 } ], "others_margin": -0.303439 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.05326620861887932, "model_output": 0.0533, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.117 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0884 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0772 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0258 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3179, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.154 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0532 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0042 } ], "others": -0.0264, "total": 0.0533, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146086, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.662251 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.392223 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.175743 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.102235 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.051226 } ], "others_margin": -0.402686 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2233058363199234, "model_output": 0.2233, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0312 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3088 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2332 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0396 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0352 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0217 } ], "others": -0.1231, "total": 0.2233, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984935, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.3088 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.233214 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.03962 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.035176 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.021691 } ], "others_margin": -0.123129 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.740540027618408, "model_output": 6.7405, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0749 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0947 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0061 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0051 } ], "others": 0.0077, "total": 6.7405, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.094658 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017377 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.011546 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.006135 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.005118 } ], "others_margin": 0.007733 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.1145 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.9 to 29.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.43)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4148, "expected_assists": 0.0246, "assists": 0.0388, "assist_rate": 0.0388, "expected_goals": 0.0181, "goals": 0.0298, "goal_rate": 0.0298, "shots_on_target": 0.0652, "total_shots": 0.2759, "rating": 6.7405, "minutes": 29.69, "total_pass": 19.5046, "accurate_pass": 17.8857, "duels_won": 2.7501, "total_long_balls": 1.6019, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0867, "total_own_half_passes": 6.3689, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.081, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1357, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8046, "crosses_total": 0.1388, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.2672, "possession_lost": 1.9282, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2452, "aerial_won": 1.0728, "aerial_lost": 0.3136, "interceptions": 0.5717, "tackles_won": 0.3301, "tackles": 1.0467, "clearances": 1.2096, "total_contest": 0.1834, "won_contest": 0.099, "challenges_lost": 0.5116, "fouls": 0.1422, "fouls_drawn": 0.5288, "blocks": 0.1898, "big_chances_created": 0.2465, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0267, "ball_carries": 8.9162, "total_progression": 34.8216, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2107, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.435, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.69 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 29.69, "projection_minutes": 23.9, "minutes_scale": 1.2423, "appearance_probability": 0.435 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4148, "expected_assists": 0.0246, "assists": 0.0388, "assist_rate": 0.0388, "expected_goals": 0.0181, "goals": 0.0298, "goal_rate": 0.0298, "shots_on_target": 0.0652, "total_shots": 0.2759, "rating": 6.7405, "minutes": 29.69, "total_pass": 19.5046, "accurate_pass": 17.8857, "duels_won": 2.7501, "total_long_balls": 1.6019, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0867, "total_own_half_passes": 6.3689, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.081, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1357, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8046, "crosses_total": 0.1388, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.2672, "possession_lost": 1.9282, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2452, "aerial_won": 1.0728, "aerial_lost": 0.3136, "interceptions": 0.5717, "tackles_won": 0.3301, "tackles": 1.0467, "clearances": 1.2096, "total_contest": 0.1834, "won_contest": 0.099, "challenges_lost": 0.5116, "fouls": 0.1422, "fouls_drawn": 0.5288, "blocks": 0.1898, "big_chances_created": 0.2465, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0267, "ball_carries": 8.9162, "total_progression": 34.8216, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2107, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.435, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.69 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4148, "expected_assists": 0.0246, "assist_rate": 0.0388, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0181, "goal_rate": 0.0298, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0652, "total_shots": 0.2759, "rating": 6.7405, "minutes": 29.69, "total_pass": 19.5046, "accurate_pass": 17.8857, "duels_won": 2.7501, "total_long_balls": 1.6019, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0867, "total_own_half_passes": 6.3689, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.081, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1357, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8046, "crosses_total": 0.1388, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.2672, "possession_lost": 1.9282, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2452, "aerial_won": 1.0728, "aerial_lost": 0.3136, "interceptions": 0.5717, "tackles_won": 0.3301, "tackles": 1.0467, "clearances": 1.2096, "total_contest": 0.1834, "won_contest": 0.099, "challenges_lost": 0.5116, "fouls": 0.1422, "fouls_drawn": 0.5288, "blocks": 0.1898, "big_chances_created": 0.2465, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0267, "ball_carries": 8.9162, "total_progression": 34.8216, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2107, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.435, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.69, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.435, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.1898, "big_chances_created": 0.2465, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0267, "ball_carries": 8.9162, "total_progression": 34.8216, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2107, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.435, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.69, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3056, "fifa_rank": 1560.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } } ] }, "Alemão": { 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"decomposition": { "base": 6.7733, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0531 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0295 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0095 } ], "others": -0.0586, "total": 6.597, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773334, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.053069 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.029522 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015382 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.010164 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.009474 } ], "others_margin": -0.058733 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 24, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9981, quality 0.455)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1022, "goals": 0.1015, "goal_rate": 0.1015, "shots_on_target": 0.233, "total_shots": 0.6662, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "key_pass": 0.2087, "rating": 6.597, "minutes": 21.15, "total_pass": 4.2046, "accurate_pass": 2.8596, "duels_won": 1.3672, "total_long_balls": 0.0351, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0255, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8344, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7109, "crosses_total": 0.2238, "crosses_accurate": 0.0938, "touches": 9.1531, "possession_lost": 2.7449, "dispossessed": 0.5418, "duels_lost": 2.5462, "aerial_lost": 1.088, "total_contest": 0.2418, "won_contest": 0.1012, "ball_recovery": 0.5682, "challenges_lost": 0.1123, "fouls": 0.6732, "fouls_drawn": 0.6641, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0097, "tackles_won": 0.1214, "tackles": 0.1214, "clearances": 0.4587, "blocks": 0.2598, "big_chances_created": 0.1528, "big_chances_missed": 0.0676, "xgot": 0.0759, "offsides": 0.0416, "ball_carries": 1.7615, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3802, "shots_off_target": 0.4332 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4400000, "quality_factor": 0.4548, "boost_factor": 0.9981, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.1 to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1225, "goals": 0.1217, "goal_rate": 0.1217, "shots_on_target": 0.2794, "total_shots": 0.7988, "expected_assists": 0.0134, "key_pass": 0.2503, "rating": 6.597, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 5.0417, "accurate_pass": 3.4289, "duels_won": 1.6394, "total_long_balls": 0.0421, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0306, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3987, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0515, "crosses_total": 0.2684, "crosses_accurate": 0.1125, "touches": 10.9755, "possession_lost": 3.2914, "dispossessed": 0.5418, "duels_lost": 3.0531, "aerial_lost": 1.088, "total_contest": 0.2899, "won_contest": 0.1213, "ball_recovery": 0.6813, "challenges_lost": 0.1123, "fouls": 0.8072, "fouls_drawn": 0.7963, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0116, "tackles_won": 0.1456, "tackles": 0.1456, "clearances": 0.55, "blocks": 0.3115, "big_chances_created": 0.1832, "big_chances_missed": 0.0811, "xgot": 0.091, "offsides": 0.0416, "ball_carries": 2.1122, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.4559, "shots_off_target": 0.5194, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.36, "projection_minutes": 21.15, "minutes_scale": 1.1991, "appearance_probability": 0.562 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1225, "goals": 0.1217, "goal_rate": 0.1217, "shots_on_target": 0.2794, "total_shots": 0.7988, "expected_assists": 0.0134, "key_pass": 0.2503, "rating": 6.597, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 5.0417, "accurate_pass": 3.4289, "duels_won": 1.6394, "total_long_balls": 0.0421, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0306, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3987, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0515, "crosses_total": 0.2684, "crosses_accurate": 0.1125, "touches": 10.9755, "possession_lost": 3.2914, "dispossessed": 0.5418, "duels_lost": 3.0531, "aerial_lost": 1.088, "total_contest": 0.2899, "won_contest": 0.1213, "ball_recovery": 0.6813, "challenges_lost": 0.1123, "fouls": 0.8072, "fouls_drawn": 0.7963, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0116, "tackles_won": 0.1456, "tackles": 0.1456, "clearances": 0.55, "blocks": 0.3115, "big_chances_created": 0.1832, "big_chances_missed": 0.0811, "xgot": 0.091, "offsides": 0.0416, "ball_carries": 2.1122, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.4559, "shots_off_target": 0.5194, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1225, "goal_rate": 0.1217, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2794, "total_shots": 0.7988, "expected_assists": 0.0134, "key_pass": 0.2503, "rating": 6.597, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 5.0417, "accurate_pass": 3.4289, "duels_won": 1.6394, "total_long_balls": 0.0421, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0306, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3987, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0515, "crosses_total": 0.2684, "crosses_accurate": 0.1125, "touches": 10.9755, "possession_lost": 3.2914, "dispossessed": 0.5418, "duels_lost": 3.0531, "aerial_lost": 1.088, "total_contest": 0.2899, "won_contest": 0.1213, "ball_recovery": 0.6813, "challenges_lost": 0.1123, "fouls": 0.8072, "fouls_drawn": 0.7963, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0116, "tackles_won": 0.1456, "tackles": 0.1456, "clearances": 0.55, "blocks": 0.3115, "big_chances_created": 0.1832, "big_chances_missed": 0.0811, "xgot": 0.091, "offsides": 0.0416, "ball_carries": 2.1122, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.4559, "shots_off_target": 0.5194, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.07 (squad xG sum 1.2060, xG scale 0.8881, xA scale 0.8881, team xA 0.75 = 0.70 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0611, "goal_rate": 0.1217, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2794, "total_shots": 0.7988, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "key_pass": 0.2503, "rating": 6.597, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 5.0417, "accurate_pass": 3.4289, "duels_won": 1.6394, "total_long_balls": 0.0421, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0306, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3987, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0515, "crosses_total": 0.2684, "crosses_accurate": 0.1125, "touches": 10.9755, "possession_lost": 3.2914, "dispossessed": 0.5418, "duels_lost": 3.0531, "aerial_lost": 1.088, "total_contest": 0.2899, "won_contest": 0.1213, "ball_recovery": 0.6813, "challenges_lost": 0.1123, "fouls": 0.8072, "fouls_drawn": 0.7963, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0116, "tackles_won": 0.1456, "tackles": 0.1456, "clearances": 0.55, "blocks": 0.3115, "big_chances_created": 0.1832, "big_chances_missed": 0.0811, "xgot": 0.0454, "offsides": 0.0416, "ball_carries": 2.1122, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.4559, "shots_off_target": 0.5194, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9954, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.071, "squad_xg_sum": 1.206, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8443, "team_expected_assists": 0.7498, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7001, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8881, "xa_scale": 0.8881, "opponent_lambda": 1.913, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.562 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1225, "after": 0.0611 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0134, "after": 0.0067 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0611, "goal_rate": 0.1217, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2794, "total_shots": 0.7988, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "key_pass": 0.2503, "rating": 6.597, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 5.0417, "accurate_pass": 3.4289, "duels_won": 1.6394, "total_long_balls": 0.0421, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0306, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3987, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0515, "crosses_total": 0.2684, "crosses_accurate": 0.1125, "touches": 10.9755, "possession_lost": 3.2914, "dispossessed": 0.5418, "duels_lost": 3.0531, "aerial_lost": 1.088, "total_contest": 0.2899, "won_contest": 0.1213, "ball_recovery": 0.6813, "challenges_lost": 0.1123, "fouls": 0.8072, "fouls_drawn": 0.7963, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0116, "tackles_won": 0.1456, "tackles": 0.1456, "clearances": 0.55, "blocks": 0.3115, "big_chances_created": 0.1832, "big_chances_missed": 0.0811, "xgot": 0.0454, "offsides": 0.0416, "ball_carries": 2.1122, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.4559, "shots_off_target": 0.5194, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9954, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3669, "fifa_rank": 2920.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0611, "goal_rate": 0.1217, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2794, "total_shots": 0.7988, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "key_pass": 0.2503, "rating": 6.597, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 5.0417, "accurate_pass": 3.4289, "duels_won": 1.6394, "total_long_balls": 0.0421, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0306, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3987, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0515, "crosses_total": 0.2684, "crosses_accurate": 0.1125, "touches": 10.9755, "possession_lost": 3.2914, "dispossessed": 0.5418, "duels_lost": 3.0531, "aerial_lost": 1.088, "total_contest": 0.2899, "won_contest": 0.1213, "ball_recovery": 0.6813, "challenges_lost": 0.1123, "fouls": 0.8072, "fouls_drawn": 0.7963, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0116, "tackles_won": 0.1456, "tackles": 0.1456, "clearances": 0.55, "blocks": 0.3115, "big_chances_created": 0.1832, "big_chances_missed": 0.0811, "xgot": 0.0454, "offsides": 0.0416, "ball_carries": 2.1122, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.4559, "shots_off_target": 0.5194, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0579, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9954, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0579, "goal_rate": 0.1217, "scorer_weight": 0.0608, "squad_weight_total": 1.1385, "weight_share": 0.0534, "finishing_factor": 0.9954, "appearance_weight": 0.562, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sergio Camello", "weight": 0.2318, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2318, "runner_up": "Jorge de Frutos", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2011 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0611, "goal_rate": 0.1217, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2794, "total_shots": 0.7988, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "key_pass": 0.2503, "rating": 6.597, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 5.0417, "accurate_pass": 3.4289, "duels_won": 1.6394, "total_long_balls": 0.0421, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0306, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3987, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0515, "crosses_total": 0.2684, "crosses_accurate": 0.1125, "touches": 10.9755, "possession_lost": 3.2914, "dispossessed": 0.5418, "duels_lost": 3.0531, "aerial_lost": 1.088, "total_contest": 0.2899, "won_contest": 0.1213, "ball_recovery": 0.6813, "challenges_lost": 0.1123, "fouls": 0.8072, "fouls_drawn": 0.7963, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0116, "tackles_won": 0.1456, "tackles": 0.1456, "clearances": 0.55, "blocks": 0.3115, "big_chances_created": 0.1832, "big_chances_missed": 0.0811, "xgot": 0.0454, "offsides": 0.0416, "ball_carries": 2.1122, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.4559, "shots_off_target": 0.5194, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0579, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0067, "finishing_factor": 0.9954, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0067, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0054, "squad_weight_total": 0.7951, "weight_share": 0.0067, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.562, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Álvaro García", "weight": 0.1106, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1106, "runner_up": "Unai López", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1072, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Sergio Camello" ] } ] } } ] }, "Giorgi Tsitaishvili": { "player_id": 875677, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 171, "market_value": 2700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0223, "goal_rate": 0.0475, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6434, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9916, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0516, "goals": 0.0546, "goal_rate": 0.0546, "shots_on_target": 0.1977, "total_shots": 0.7167, "expected_assists": 0.0363, "key_pass": 0.3976, "rating": 6.6434, "minutes": 29.08, "total_pass": 9.4417, "accurate_pass": 8.0682, "duels_won": 1.4098, "total_long_balls": 0.6188, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2273, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8679, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6584, "crosses_total": 1.4946, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.7595, "possession_lost": 5.6284, "dispossessed": 0.3037, "duels_lost": 1.9388, "aerial_lost": 0.1642, "total_contest": 2.0285, "won_contest": 0.7219, "ball_recovery": 1.2725, "challenges_lost": 0.1642, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4946, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1932, "tackles": 0.1932, "clearances": 0.1642, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.6113, "total_progression": 55.2658, "progressive_carries": 2.637, "shots_off_target": 0.5189 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9916, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 29.1 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0449, "goals": 0.0475, "goal_rate": 0.0475, "shots_on_target": 0.1719, "total_shots": 0.6233, "expected_assists": 0.0316, "key_pass": 0.3458, "rating": 6.6434, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 8.2119, "accurate_pass": 7.0173, "duels_won": 1.2262, "total_long_balls": 0.5382, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1977, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8431, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7911, "crosses_total": 1.2999, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.4463, "possession_lost": 4.8953, "dispossessed": 0.3037, "duels_lost": 1.6863, "aerial_lost": 0.1642, "total_contest": 1.7643, "won_contest": 0.6279, "ball_recovery": 1.1068, "challenges_lost": 0.1642, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4302, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.168, "tackles": 0.168, "clearances": 0.1428, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6199, "total_progression": 48.0672, "progressive_carries": 2.2935, "shots_off_target": 0.4513, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.29, "projection_minutes": 29.08, "minutes_scale": 0.8697, "appearance_probability": 0.559 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0449, "goals": 0.0475, "goal_rate": 0.0475, "shots_on_target": 0.1719, "total_shots": 0.6233, "expected_assists": 0.0316, "key_pass": 0.3458, "rating": 6.6434, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 8.2119, "accurate_pass": 7.0173, "duels_won": 1.2262, "total_long_balls": 0.5382, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1977, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8431, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7911, "crosses_total": 1.2999, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.4463, "possession_lost": 4.8953, "dispossessed": 0.3037, "duels_lost": 1.6863, "aerial_lost": 0.1642, "total_contest": 1.7643, "won_contest": 0.6279, "ball_recovery": 1.1068, "challenges_lost": 0.1642, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4302, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.168, "tackles": 0.168, "clearances": 0.1428, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6199, "total_progression": 48.0672, "progressive_carries": 2.2935, "shots_off_target": 0.4513, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0449, "goal_rate": 0.0475, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1719, "total_shots": 0.6233, "expected_assists": 0.0316, "key_pass": 0.3458, "rating": 6.6434, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 8.2119, "accurate_pass": 7.0173, "duels_won": 1.2262, "total_long_balls": 0.5382, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1977, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8431, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7911, "crosses_total": 1.2999, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.4463, "possession_lost": 4.8953, "dispossessed": 0.3037, "duels_lost": 1.6863, "aerial_lost": 0.1642, "total_contest": 1.7643, "won_contest": 0.6279, "ball_recovery": 1.1068, "challenges_lost": 0.1642, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4302, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.168, "tackles": 0.168, "clearances": 0.1428, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6199, "total_progression": 48.0672, "progressive_carries": 2.2935, "shots_off_target": 0.4513, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.07 (squad xG sum 1.2060, xG scale 0.8881, xA scale 0.8881, team xA 0.75 = 0.70 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0223, "goal_rate": 0.0475, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1719, "total_shots": 0.6233, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "key_pass": 0.3458, "rating": 6.6434, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 8.2119, "accurate_pass": 7.0173, "duels_won": 1.2262, "total_long_balls": 0.5382, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1977, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8431, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7911, "crosses_total": 1.2999, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.4463, "possession_lost": 4.8953, "dispossessed": 0.3037, "duels_lost": 1.6863, "aerial_lost": 0.1642, "total_contest": 1.7643, "won_contest": 0.6279, "ball_recovery": 1.1068, "challenges_lost": 0.1642, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4302, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.168, "tackles": 0.168, "clearances": 0.1428, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6199, "total_progression": 48.0672, "progressive_carries": 2.2935, "shots_off_target": 0.4513, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0274, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.071, "squad_xg_sum": 1.206, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8443, "team_expected_assists": 0.7498, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7001, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8881, "xa_scale": 0.8881, "opponent_lambda": 1.913, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.559 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0449, "after": 0.0223 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0316, "after": 0.0157 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0223, "goal_rate": 0.0475, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1719, "total_shots": 0.6233, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "key_pass": 0.3458, "rating": 6.6434, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 8.2119, "accurate_pass": 7.0173, "duels_won": 1.2262, "total_long_balls": 0.5382, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1977, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8431, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7911, "crosses_total": 1.2999, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.4463, "possession_lost": 4.8953, "dispossessed": 0.3037, "duels_lost": 1.6863, "aerial_lost": 0.1642, "total_contest": 1.7643, "won_contest": 0.6279, "ball_recovery": 1.1068, "challenges_lost": 0.1642, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4302, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.168, "tackles": 0.168, "clearances": 0.1428, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6199, "total_progression": 48.0672, "progressive_carries": 2.2935, "shots_off_target": 0.4513, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0274, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1617, "fifa_rank": 1117.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0223, "goal_rate": 0.0475, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1719, "total_shots": 0.6233, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "key_pass": 0.3458, "rating": 6.6434, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 8.2119, "accurate_pass": 7.0173, "duels_won": 1.2262, "total_long_balls": 0.5382, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1977, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8431, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7911, "crosses_total": 1.2999, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.4463, "possession_lost": 4.8953, "dispossessed": 0.3037, "duels_lost": 1.6863, "aerial_lost": 0.1642, "total_contest": 1.7643, "won_contest": 0.6279, "ball_recovery": 1.1068, "challenges_lost": 0.1642, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4302, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.168, "tackles": 0.168, "clearances": 0.1428, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6199, "total_progression": 48.0672, "progressive_carries": 2.2935, "shots_off_target": 0.4513, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0219, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0274, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0219, "goal_rate": 0.0475, "scorer_weight": 0.0229, "squad_weight_total": 1.1385, "weight_share": 0.0201, "finishing_factor": 1.0274, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sergio Camello", "weight": 0.2318, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2318, "runner_up": "Jorge de Frutos", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2011 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0223, "goal_rate": 0.0475, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1719, "total_shots": 0.6233, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "key_pass": 0.3458, "rating": 6.6434, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 8.2119, "accurate_pass": 7.0173, "duels_won": 1.2262, "total_long_balls": 0.5382, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1977, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8431, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7911, "crosses_total": 1.2999, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.4463, "possession_lost": 4.8953, "dispossessed": 0.3037, "duels_lost": 1.6863, "aerial_lost": 0.1642, "total_contest": 1.7643, "won_contest": 0.6279, "ball_recovery": 1.1068, "challenges_lost": 0.1642, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4302, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.168, "tackles": 0.168, "clearances": 0.1428, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6199, "total_progression": 48.0672, "progressive_carries": 2.2935, "shots_off_target": 0.4513, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0219, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0155, "finishing_factor": 1.0274, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0155, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0126, "squad_weight_total": 0.7951, "weight_share": 0.0158, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Álvaro García", "weight": 0.1106, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1106, "runner_up": "Unai López", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1072, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Sergio Camello" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Alemão": { "player_id": 981604, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 182, "market_value": 4400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0611, "goal_rate": 0.1217, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.597, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9981, quality 0.455)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1022, "goals": 0.1015, "goal_rate": 0.1015, "shots_on_target": 0.233, "total_shots": 0.6662, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "key_pass": 0.2087, "rating": 6.597, "minutes": 21.15, "total_pass": 4.2046, "accurate_pass": 2.8596, "duels_won": 1.3672, "total_long_balls": 0.0351, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0255, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8344, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.7109, "crosses_total": 0.2238, "crosses_accurate": 0.0938, "touches": 9.1531, "possession_lost": 2.7449, "dispossessed": 0.5418, "duels_lost": 2.5462, "aerial_lost": 1.088, "total_contest": 0.2418, "won_contest": 0.1012, "ball_recovery": 0.5682, "challenges_lost": 0.1123, "fouls": 0.6732, "fouls_drawn": 0.6641, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0097, "tackles_won": 0.1214, "tackles": 0.1214, "clearances": 0.4587, "blocks": 0.2598, "big_chances_created": 0.1528, "big_chances_missed": 0.0676, "xgot": 0.0759, "offsides": 0.0416, "ball_carries": 1.7615, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3802, "shots_off_target": 0.4332 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4400000, "quality_factor": 0.4548, "boost_factor": 0.9981, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.1 to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1225, "goals": 0.1217, "goal_rate": 0.1217, "shots_on_target": 0.2794, "total_shots": 0.7988, "expected_assists": 0.0134, "key_pass": 0.2503, "rating": 6.597, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 5.0417, "accurate_pass": 3.4289, "duels_won": 1.6394, "total_long_balls": 0.0421, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0306, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3987, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0515, "crosses_total": 0.2684, "crosses_accurate": 0.1125, "touches": 10.9755, "possession_lost": 3.2914, "dispossessed": 0.5418, "duels_lost": 3.0531, "aerial_lost": 1.088, "total_contest": 0.2899, "won_contest": 0.1213, "ball_recovery": 0.6813, "challenges_lost": 0.1123, "fouls": 0.8072, "fouls_drawn": 0.7963, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0116, "tackles_won": 0.1456, "tackles": 0.1456, "clearances": 0.55, "blocks": 0.3115, "big_chances_created": 0.1832, "big_chances_missed": 0.0811, "xgot": 0.091, "offsides": 0.0416, "ball_carries": 2.1122, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.4559, "shots_off_target": 0.5194, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.36, "projection_minutes": 21.15, "minutes_scale": 1.1991, "appearance_probability": 0.562 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1225, "goals": 0.1217, "goal_rate": 0.1217, "shots_on_target": 0.2794, "total_shots": 0.7988, "expected_assists": 0.0134, "key_pass": 0.2503, "rating": 6.597, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 5.0417, "accurate_pass": 3.4289, "duels_won": 1.6394, "total_long_balls": 0.0421, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0306, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3987, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0515, "crosses_total": 0.2684, "crosses_accurate": 0.1125, "touches": 10.9755, "possession_lost": 3.2914, "dispossessed": 0.5418, "duels_lost": 3.0531, "aerial_lost": 1.088, "total_contest": 0.2899, "won_contest": 0.1213, "ball_recovery": 0.6813, "challenges_lost": 0.1123, "fouls": 0.8072, "fouls_drawn": 0.7963, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0116, "tackles_won": 0.1456, "tackles": 0.1456, "clearances": 0.55, "blocks": 0.3115, "big_chances_created": 0.1832, "big_chances_missed": 0.0811, "xgot": 0.091, "offsides": 0.0416, "ball_carries": 2.1122, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.4559, "shots_off_target": 0.5194, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1225, "goal_rate": 0.1217, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2794, "total_shots": 0.7988, "expected_assists": 0.0134, "key_pass": 0.2503, "rating": 6.597, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 5.0417, "accurate_pass": 3.4289, "duels_won": 1.6394, "total_long_balls": 0.0421, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0306, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3987, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0515, "crosses_total": 0.2684, "crosses_accurate": 0.1125, "touches": 10.9755, "possession_lost": 3.2914, "dispossessed": 0.5418, "duels_lost": 3.0531, "aerial_lost": 1.088, "total_contest": 0.2899, "won_contest": 0.1213, "ball_recovery": 0.6813, "challenges_lost": 0.1123, "fouls": 0.8072, "fouls_drawn": 0.7963, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0116, "tackles_won": 0.1456, "tackles": 0.1456, "clearances": 0.55, "blocks": 0.3115, "big_chances_created": 0.1832, "big_chances_missed": 0.0811, "xgot": 0.091, "offsides": 0.0416, "ball_carries": 2.1122, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.4559, "shots_off_target": 0.5194, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.07 (squad xG sum 1.2060, xG scale 0.8881, xA scale 0.8881, team xA 0.75 = 0.70 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0611, "goal_rate": 0.1217, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2794, "total_shots": 0.7988, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "key_pass": 0.2503, "rating": 6.597, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 5.0417, "accurate_pass": 3.4289, "duels_won": 1.6394, "total_long_balls": 0.0421, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0306, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3987, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0515, "crosses_total": 0.2684, "crosses_accurate": 0.1125, "touches": 10.9755, "possession_lost": 3.2914, "dispossessed": 0.5418, "duels_lost": 3.0531, "aerial_lost": 1.088, "total_contest": 0.2899, "won_contest": 0.1213, "ball_recovery": 0.6813, "challenges_lost": 0.1123, "fouls": 0.8072, "fouls_drawn": 0.7963, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0116, "tackles_won": 0.1456, "tackles": 0.1456, "clearances": 0.55, "blocks": 0.3115, "big_chances_created": 0.1832, "big_chances_missed": 0.0811, "xgot": 0.0454, "offsides": 0.0416, "ball_carries": 2.1122, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.4559, "shots_off_target": 0.5194, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9954, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.071, "squad_xg_sum": 1.206, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8443, "team_expected_assists": 0.7498, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7001, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8881, "xa_scale": 0.8881, "opponent_lambda": 1.913, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.562 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1225, "after": 0.0611 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0134, "after": 0.0067 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0611, "goal_rate": 0.1217, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2794, "total_shots": 0.7988, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "key_pass": 0.2503, "rating": 6.597, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 5.0417, "accurate_pass": 3.4289, "duels_won": 1.6394, "total_long_balls": 0.0421, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0306, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3987, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0515, "crosses_total": 0.2684, "crosses_accurate": 0.1125, "touches": 10.9755, "possession_lost": 3.2914, "dispossessed": 0.5418, "duels_lost": 3.0531, "aerial_lost": 1.088, "total_contest": 0.2899, "won_contest": 0.1213, "ball_recovery": 0.6813, "challenges_lost": 0.1123, "fouls": 0.8072, "fouls_drawn": 0.7963, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0116, "tackles_won": 0.1456, "tackles": 0.1456, "clearances": 0.55, "blocks": 0.3115, "big_chances_created": 0.1832, "big_chances_missed": 0.0811, "xgot": 0.0454, "offsides": 0.0416, "ball_carries": 2.1122, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.4559, "shots_off_target": 0.5194, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9954, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3669, "fifa_rank": 2920.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0611, "goal_rate": 0.1217, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2794, "total_shots": 0.7988, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "key_pass": 0.2503, "rating": 6.597, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 5.0417, "accurate_pass": 3.4289, "duels_won": 1.6394, "total_long_balls": 0.0421, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0306, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3987, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0515, "crosses_total": 0.2684, "crosses_accurate": 0.1125, "touches": 10.9755, "possession_lost": 3.2914, "dispossessed": 0.5418, "duels_lost": 3.0531, "aerial_lost": 1.088, "total_contest": 0.2899, "won_contest": 0.1213, "ball_recovery": 0.6813, "challenges_lost": 0.1123, "fouls": 0.8072, "fouls_drawn": 0.7963, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0116, "tackles_won": 0.1456, "tackles": 0.1456, "clearances": 0.55, "blocks": 0.3115, "big_chances_created": 0.1832, "big_chances_missed": 0.0811, "xgot": 0.0454, "offsides": 0.0416, "ball_carries": 2.1122, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.4559, "shots_off_target": 0.5194, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0579, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9954, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0579, "goal_rate": 0.1217, "scorer_weight": 0.0608, "squad_weight_total": 1.1385, "weight_share": 0.0534, "finishing_factor": 0.9954, "appearance_weight": 0.562, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sergio Camello", "weight": 0.2318, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2318, "runner_up": "Jorge de Frutos", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2011 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0611, "goal_rate": 0.1217, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2794, "total_shots": 0.7988, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "key_pass": 0.2503, "rating": 6.597, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 5.0417, "accurate_pass": 3.4289, "duels_won": 1.6394, "total_long_balls": 0.0421, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0306, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3987, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0515, "crosses_total": 0.2684, "crosses_accurate": 0.1125, "touches": 10.9755, "possession_lost": 3.2914, "dispossessed": 0.5418, "duels_lost": 3.0531, "aerial_lost": 1.088, "total_contest": 0.2899, "won_contest": 0.1213, "ball_recovery": 0.6813, "challenges_lost": 0.1123, "fouls": 0.8072, "fouls_drawn": 0.7963, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0116, "tackles_won": 0.1456, "tackles": 0.1456, "clearances": 0.55, "blocks": 0.3115, "big_chances_created": 0.1832, "big_chances_missed": 0.0811, "xgot": 0.0454, "offsides": 0.0416, "ball_carries": 2.1122, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.4559, "shots_off_target": 0.5194, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0579, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0067, "finishing_factor": 0.9954, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0067, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0054, "squad_weight_total": 0.7951, "weight_share": 0.0067, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.562, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Álvaro García", "weight": 0.1106, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1106, "runner_up": "Unai López", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1072, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Sergio Camello" ] } ] } } ] }, "Giorgi Tsitaishvili": { "player_id": 875677, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 171, "market_value": 2700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0223, "goal_rate": 0.0475, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6434, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9916, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0516, "goals": 0.0546, "goal_rate": 0.0546, "shots_on_target": 0.1977, "total_shots": 0.7167, "expected_assists": 0.0363, "key_pass": 0.3976, "rating": 6.6434, "minutes": 29.08, "total_pass": 9.4417, "accurate_pass": 8.0682, "duels_won": 1.4098, "total_long_balls": 0.6188, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2273, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8679, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6584, "crosses_total": 1.4946, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.7595, "possession_lost": 5.6284, "dispossessed": 0.3037, "duels_lost": 1.9388, "aerial_lost": 0.1642, "total_contest": 2.0285, "won_contest": 0.7219, "ball_recovery": 1.2725, "challenges_lost": 0.1642, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4946, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1932, "tackles": 0.1932, "clearances": 0.1642, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.6113, "total_progression": 55.2658, "progressive_carries": 2.637, "shots_off_target": 0.5189 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9916, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 29.1 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0449, "goals": 0.0475, "goal_rate": 0.0475, "shots_on_target": 0.1719, "total_shots": 0.6233, "expected_assists": 0.0316, "key_pass": 0.3458, "rating": 6.6434, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 8.2119, "accurate_pass": 7.0173, "duels_won": 1.2262, "total_long_balls": 0.5382, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1977, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8431, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7911, "crosses_total": 1.2999, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.4463, "possession_lost": 4.8953, "dispossessed": 0.3037, "duels_lost": 1.6863, "aerial_lost": 0.1642, "total_contest": 1.7643, "won_contest": 0.6279, "ball_recovery": 1.1068, "challenges_lost": 0.1642, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4302, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.168, "tackles": 0.168, "clearances": 0.1428, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6199, "total_progression": 48.0672, "progressive_carries": 2.2935, "shots_off_target": 0.4513, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.29, "projection_minutes": 29.08, "minutes_scale": 0.8697, "appearance_probability": 0.559 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0449, "goals": 0.0475, "goal_rate": 0.0475, "shots_on_target": 0.1719, "total_shots": 0.6233, "expected_assists": 0.0316, "key_pass": 0.3458, "rating": 6.6434, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 8.2119, "accurate_pass": 7.0173, "duels_won": 1.2262, "total_long_balls": 0.5382, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1977, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8431, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7911, "crosses_total": 1.2999, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.4463, "possession_lost": 4.8953, "dispossessed": 0.3037, "duels_lost": 1.6863, "aerial_lost": 0.1642, "total_contest": 1.7643, "won_contest": 0.6279, "ball_recovery": 1.1068, "challenges_lost": 0.1642, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4302, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.168, "tackles": 0.168, "clearances": 0.1428, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6199, "total_progression": 48.0672, "progressive_carries": 2.2935, "shots_off_target": 0.4513, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0449, "goal_rate": 0.0475, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1719, "total_shots": 0.6233, "expected_assists": 0.0316, "key_pass": 0.3458, "rating": 6.6434, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 8.2119, "accurate_pass": 7.0173, "duels_won": 1.2262, "total_long_balls": 0.5382, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1977, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8431, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7911, "crosses_total": 1.2999, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.4463, "possession_lost": 4.8953, "dispossessed": 0.3037, "duels_lost": 1.6863, "aerial_lost": 0.1642, "total_contest": 1.7643, "won_contest": 0.6279, "ball_recovery": 1.1068, "challenges_lost": 0.1642, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4302, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.168, "tackles": 0.168, "clearances": 0.1428, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6199, "total_progression": 48.0672, "progressive_carries": 2.2935, "shots_off_target": 0.4513, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.07 (squad xG sum 1.2060, xG scale 0.8881, xA scale 0.8881, team xA 0.75 = 0.70 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0223, "goal_rate": 0.0475, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1719, "total_shots": 0.6233, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "key_pass": 0.3458, "rating": 6.6434, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 8.2119, "accurate_pass": 7.0173, "duels_won": 1.2262, "total_long_balls": 0.5382, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1977, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8431, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7911, "crosses_total": 1.2999, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.4463, "possession_lost": 4.8953, "dispossessed": 0.3037, "duels_lost": 1.6863, "aerial_lost": 0.1642, "total_contest": 1.7643, "won_contest": 0.6279, "ball_recovery": 1.1068, "challenges_lost": 0.1642, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4302, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.168, "tackles": 0.168, "clearances": 0.1428, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6199, "total_progression": 48.0672, "progressive_carries": 2.2935, "shots_off_target": 0.4513, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0274, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.071, "squad_xg_sum": 1.206, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8443, "team_expected_assists": 0.7498, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7001, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8881, "xa_scale": 0.8881, "opponent_lambda": 1.913, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.559 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0449, "after": 0.0223 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0316, "after": 0.0157 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0223, "goal_rate": 0.0475, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1719, "total_shots": 0.6233, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "key_pass": 0.3458, "rating": 6.6434, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 8.2119, "accurate_pass": 7.0173, "duels_won": 1.2262, "total_long_balls": 0.5382, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1977, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8431, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7911, "crosses_total": 1.2999, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.4463, "possession_lost": 4.8953, "dispossessed": 0.3037, "duels_lost": 1.6863, "aerial_lost": 0.1642, "total_contest": 1.7643, "won_contest": 0.6279, "ball_recovery": 1.1068, "challenges_lost": 0.1642, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4302, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.168, "tackles": 0.168, "clearances": 0.1428, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6199, "total_progression": 48.0672, "progressive_carries": 2.2935, "shots_off_target": 0.4513, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0274, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1617, "fifa_rank": 1117.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0223, "goal_rate": 0.0475, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1719, "total_shots": 0.6233, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "key_pass": 0.3458, "rating": 6.6434, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 8.2119, "accurate_pass": 7.0173, "duels_won": 1.2262, "total_long_balls": 0.5382, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1977, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8431, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7911, "crosses_total": 1.2999, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.4463, "possession_lost": 4.8953, "dispossessed": 0.3037, "duels_lost": 1.6863, "aerial_lost": 0.1642, "total_contest": 1.7643, "won_contest": 0.6279, "ball_recovery": 1.1068, "challenges_lost": 0.1642, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4302, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.168, "tackles": 0.168, "clearances": 0.1428, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6199, "total_progression": 48.0672, "progressive_carries": 2.2935, "shots_off_target": 0.4513, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0219, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0274, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0219, "goal_rate": 0.0475, "scorer_weight": 0.0229, "squad_weight_total": 1.1385, "weight_share": 0.0201, "finishing_factor": 1.0274, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sergio Camello", "weight": 0.2318, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2318, "runner_up": "Jorge de Frutos", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2011 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0223, "goal_rate": 0.0475, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1719, "total_shots": 0.6233, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "key_pass": 0.3458, "rating": 6.6434, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 8.2119, "accurate_pass": 7.0173, "duels_won": 1.2262, "total_long_balls": 0.5382, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1977, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8431, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7911, "crosses_total": 1.2999, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.4463, "possession_lost": 4.8953, "dispossessed": 0.3037, "duels_lost": 1.6863, "aerial_lost": 0.1642, "total_contest": 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"team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0155, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0126, "squad_weight_total": 0.7951, "weight_share": 0.0158, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Álvaro García", "weight": 0.1106, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1106, "runner_up": "Unai López", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1072, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Sergio Camello" ] } ] } } ] }, "Isi Palazón": { "player_id": 899982, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 169, "market_value": 3000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0173, "assist_rate": 0.0604, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0713, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7056, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, 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"accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0482 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0337 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8574, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0665 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0355 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0258 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0063 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0059 } ], "others": -0.0118, "total": 6.7056, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.857404, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.066507 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.03555 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.025755 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.006322 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.005867 } ], "others_margin": -0.011759 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9975, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.496, "expected_assists": 0.0453, "assists": 0.0702, "assist_rate": 0.0702, "expected_goals": 0.0851, "goals": 0.0829, "goal_rate": 0.0829, "shots_on_target": 0.2854, "total_shots": 0.7175, "rating": 6.7056, "minutes": 25.53, "total_pass": 14.266, "accurate_pass": 12.0423, "duels_won": 1.8717, "total_long_balls": 0.9697, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5919, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2988, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2988, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9672, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7435, "crosses_total": 0.4725, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.2867, "possession_lost": 3.4414, "dispossessed": 0.3795, "duels_lost": 1.0359, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4056, "interceptions": 0.3517, "tackles_won": 0.3211, "tackles": 0.4465, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.5497, "won_contest": 0.4243, "challenges_lost": 0.1254, "fouls": 0.1066, "fouls_drawn": 1.0008, "blocks": 0.1066, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2402, "xgot": 0.0796, "ball_carries": 6.0703, "total_progression": 10.0027, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4321 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3000000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9975, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.5 to 22.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.50)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4269, "expected_assists": 0.039, "assists": 0.0604, "assist_rate": 0.0604, "expected_goals": 0.0732, "goals": 0.0713, "goal_rate": 0.0713, "shots_on_target": 0.2456, "total_shots": 0.6175, "rating": 6.7056, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 12.2779, "accurate_pass": 10.3641, "duels_won": 1.6109, "total_long_balls": 0.8346, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5094, "total_own_half_passes": 2.8391, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8391, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4388, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.525, "crosses_total": 0.4067, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.4596, "possession_lost": 2.9618, "dispossessed": 0.3795, "duels_lost": 0.8915, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4056, "interceptions": 0.3027, "tackles_won": 0.2764, "tackles": 0.3843, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4731, "won_contest": 0.3652, "challenges_lost": 0.1254, "fouls": 0.0917, "fouls_drawn": 0.8613, "blocks": 0.0917, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2067, "xgot": 0.0685, "ball_carries": 5.2244, "total_progression": 8.6088, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3719, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 21.97, "projection_minutes": 25.53, "minutes_scale": 0.8606, "appearance_probability": 0.499 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4269, "expected_assists": 0.039, "assists": 0.0604, "assist_rate": 0.0604, "expected_goals": 0.0732, "goals": 0.0713, "goal_rate": 0.0713, "shots_on_target": 0.2456, "total_shots": 0.6175, "rating": 6.7056, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 12.2779, "accurate_pass": 10.3641, "duels_won": 1.6109, "total_long_balls": 0.8346, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5094, "total_own_half_passes": 2.8391, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8391, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4388, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.525, "crosses_total": 0.4067, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.4596, "possession_lost": 2.9618, "dispossessed": 0.3795, "duels_lost": 0.8915, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4056, "interceptions": 0.3027, "tackles_won": 0.2764, "tackles": 0.3843, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4731, "won_contest": 0.3652, "challenges_lost": 0.1254, "fouls": 0.0917, "fouls_drawn": 0.8613, "blocks": 0.0917, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2067, "xgot": 0.0685, "ball_carries": 5.2244, "total_progression": 8.6088, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3719, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4269, "expected_assists": 0.039, "assist_rate": 0.0604, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0732, "goal_rate": 0.0713, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2456, "total_shots": 0.6175, "rating": 6.7056, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 12.2779, "accurate_pass": 10.3641, "duels_won": 1.6109, "total_long_balls": 0.8346, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5094, "total_own_half_passes": 2.8391, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8391, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4388, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.525, "crosses_total": 0.4067, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.4596, "possession_lost": 2.9618, "dispossessed": 0.3795, "duels_lost": 0.8915, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4056, "interceptions": 0.3027, "tackles_won": 0.2764, "tackles": 0.3843, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4731, "won_contest": 0.3652, "challenges_lost": 0.1254, "fouls": 0.0917, "fouls_drawn": 0.8613, "blocks": 0.0917, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2067, "xgot": 0.0685, "ball_carries": 5.2244, "total_progression": 8.6088, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3719, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.07 (squad xG sum 1.2060, xG scale 0.8881, xA scale 0.8881, team xA 0.75 = 0.70 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4269, "expected_assists": 0.0173, "assist_rate": 0.0604, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0713, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2456, "total_shots": 0.6175, "rating": 6.7056, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 12.2779, "accurate_pass": 10.3641, "duels_won": 1.6109, "total_long_balls": 0.8346, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5094, "total_own_half_passes": 2.8391, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8391, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4388, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.525, "crosses_total": 0.4067, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.4596, "possession_lost": 2.9618, "dispossessed": 0.3795, "duels_lost": 0.8915, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4056, "interceptions": 0.3027, "tackles_won": 0.2764, "tackles": 0.3843, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4731, "won_contest": 0.3652, "challenges_lost": 0.1254, "fouls": 0.0917, "fouls_drawn": 0.8613, "blocks": 0.0917, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2067, "xgot": 0.0304, "ball_carries": 5.2244, "total_progression": 8.6088, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3719, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9846, "creation_factor": 1.2404 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.071, "squad_xg_sum": 1.206, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8443, "team_expected_assists": 0.7498, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7001, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8881, "xa_scale": 0.8881, "opponent_lambda": 1.913, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.499 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0732, "after": 0.0324 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.039, "after": 0.0173 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4269, "expected_assists": 0.0173, "assist_rate": 0.0604, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0713, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2456, "total_shots": 0.6175, "rating": 6.7056, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 12.2779, "accurate_pass": 10.3641, "duels_won": 1.6109, "total_long_balls": 0.8346, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5094, "total_own_half_passes": 2.8391, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8391, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4388, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.525, "crosses_total": 0.4067, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.4596, "possession_lost": 2.9618, "dispossessed": 0.3795, "duels_lost": 0.8915, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4056, "interceptions": 0.3027, "tackles_won": 0.2764, "tackles": 0.3843, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4731, "won_contest": 0.3652, "challenges_lost": 0.1254, "fouls": 0.0917, "fouls_drawn": 0.8613, "blocks": 0.0917, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2067, "xgot": 0.0304, "ball_carries": 5.2244, "total_progression": 8.6088, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3719, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9846, "creation_factor": 1.2404, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1652, "fifa_rank": 981.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4269, "expected_assists": 0.0173, "assist_rate": 0.0604, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0713, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2456, "total_shots": 0.6175, "rating": 6.7056, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 12.2779, "accurate_pass": 10.3641, "duels_won": 1.6109, "total_long_balls": 0.8346, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5094, "total_own_half_passes": 2.8391, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8391, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4388, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.525, "crosses_total": 0.4067, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.4596, "possession_lost": 2.9618, "dispossessed": 0.3795, "duels_lost": 0.8915, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4056, "interceptions": 0.3027, "tackles_won": 0.2764, "tackles": 0.3843, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4731, "won_contest": 0.3652, "challenges_lost": 0.1254, "fouls": 0.0917, "fouls_drawn": 0.8613, "blocks": 0.0917, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2067, "xgot": 0.0304, "ball_carries": 5.2244, "total_progression": 8.6088, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3719, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0314, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9846, "creation_factor": 1.2404, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0314, "goal_rate": 0.0713, "scorer_weight": 0.0319, "squad_weight_total": 1.1385, "weight_share": 0.028, "finishing_factor": 0.9846, "appearance_weight": 0.499, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sergio Camello", "weight": 0.2318, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2318, "runner_up": "Jorge de Frutos", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2011 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4269, "expected_assists": 0.0173, "assist_rate": 0.0604, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0713, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2456, "total_shots": 0.6175, "rating": 6.7056, "minutes": 21.97, "total_pass": 12.2779, "accurate_pass": 10.3641, "duels_won": 1.6109, "total_long_balls": 0.8346, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5094, "total_own_half_passes": 2.8391, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8391, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.4388, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.525, "crosses_total": 0.4067, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.4596, "possession_lost": 2.9618, "dispossessed": 0.3795, "duels_lost": 0.8915, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4056, "interceptions": 0.3027, "tackles_won": 0.2764, "tackles": 0.3843, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4731, "won_contest": 0.3652, "challenges_lost": 0.1254, "fouls": 0.0917, "fouls_drawn": 0.8613, "blocks": 0.0917, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2067, "xgot": 0.0304, "ball_carries": 5.2244, "total_progression": 8.6088, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3719, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.354, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0314, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.017, "finishing_factor": 0.9846, "creation_factor": 1.2404, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.017, "assist_rate": 0.0604, "provider_weight": 0.0215, "squad_weight_total": 0.7951, "weight_share": 0.027, "creation_factor": 1.2404, "appearance_weight": 0.499, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Álvaro García", "weight": 0.1106, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1106, "runner_up": "Unai López", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1072, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Sergio Camello" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.07, "expected_assists": 0.75, "total_shots": 15, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 453, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 6.92, "possession_estimated_pct": 47.6, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.0 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Florian Lejeune", "Mujaid Sadick" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.448, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.28, "xg_contribution": 0.3206, "xg_multiplier": 1.1183, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Florian Lejeune", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.72 }, { "player": "Mujaid Sadick", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.72 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mikel Oyarzabal (ST) is slightly favored against Florian Lejeune and Mujaid Sadick in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €3M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.12 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.321 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Orri Óskarsson", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Florian Lejeune", "Mujaid Sadick" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.448, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.276, "xg_contribution": 0.4587, "xg_multiplier": 1.1124, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Florian Lejeune", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.724 }, { "player": "Mujaid Sadick", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.724 } ], "duel_analysis": "Orri Óskarsson (ST) is slightly favored against Florian Lejeune and Mujaid Sadick in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€21M vs €3M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.11 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.459 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Luka Sučić", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 16300000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.593, "defenders": [ "Adrià Pedrosa" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.57, "xg_contribution": 0.1715, "xg_multiplier": 1.1614, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adrià Pedrosa", "role": "RB", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.43 } ], "duel_analysis": "Luka Sučić (LM) is slightly favored against Adrià Pedrosa in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 57%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.16 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.172 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Carlos Soler", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 6600000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.482, "defenders": [ "Andrei Rațiu" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.65, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.341, "xg_contribution": 0.1108, "xg_multiplier": 0.8254, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Andrei Rațiu", "role": "LB", "market_value": 22000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.659 } ], "duel_analysis": "Carlos Soler (RM) faces tough defensive resistance against Andrei Rațiu in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€7M vs €22M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.83 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.111 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Beñat Turrientes", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 10600000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.529, "defenders": [ "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "Unai López" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.36, "xg_contribution": 0.0838, "xg_multiplier": 1.0875, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.64 }, { "player": "Unai López", "role": "CM", "market_value": 2600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.64 } ], "duel_analysis": "Beñat Turrientes (CM) is slightly favored against Pathé Ismaël Ciss and Unai López in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 36%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.09 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.084 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "Unai López" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.43, "xg_contribution": 0.0385, "xg_multiplier": 1.1912, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.57 }, { "player": "Unai López", "role": "CM", "market_value": 2600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.57 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jon Gorrotxategi (CM) is slightly favored against Pathé Ismaël Ciss and Unai López in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 43%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €2M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.19 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.038 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Álvaro García", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 1500000, "attacker_height": 168, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Jon Aramburu" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.567, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.362, "xg_contribution": 0.2028, "xg_multiplier": 0.8258, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jon Aramburu", "role": "RB", "market_value": 13900000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.638 } ], "duel_analysis": "Álvaro García (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Jon Aramburu in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.83 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.203 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Jorge de Frutos", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 10900000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.533, "defenders": [ "Sergio Gómez" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.575, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.44, "xg_contribution": 0.1812, "xg_multiplier": 0.9414, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sergio Gómez", "role": "LB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.56 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jorge de Frutos (RW) is evenly matched against Sergio Gómez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.181 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Sergio Camello", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 10900000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.533, "defenders": [ "Jon Martin", "Mamadou Sarr" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2498, "xg_multiplier": 0.7948, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jon Martin", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Mamadou Sarr", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sergio Camello (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jon Martin and Mamadou Sarr in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.79 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.250 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 1600000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Beñat Turrientes" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.529, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.368, "xg_contribution": 0.0627, "xg_multiplier": 0.9536, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Beñat Turrientes", "role": "CM", "market_value": 10600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.632 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss (CDM) is evenly matched against Beñat Turrientes in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.95 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.063 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Unai López", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 2600000, "attacker_height": 169, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Beñat Turrientes" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.529, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.332, "xg_contribution": 0.0637, "xg_multiplier": 0.8713, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Beñat Turrientes", "role": "CM", "market_value": 10600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.668 } ], "duel_analysis": "Unai López (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Beñat Turrientes in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.87 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.064 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Pedro Díaz", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 2900000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Beñat Turrientes" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.529, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.378, "xg_contribution": 0.1245, "xg_multiplier": 0.9378, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Beñat Turrientes", "role": "CM", "market_value": 10600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.622 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pedro Díaz (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Beñat Turrientes in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.125 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.6, "away_midfield_power": 0.437, "home_creative_power": 0.569, "away_creative_power": 0.416, "home_defensive_power": 0.52, "away_defensive_power": 0.372, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.578, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Luka Sučić", "Carlos Soler", "Beñat Turrientes", "Jon Gorrotxategi" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Unai López", "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "Pedro Díaz" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 52.4, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 47.6, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.0, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.0, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.9, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.0, "home_throughball_threat": 2.3, "away_throughball_threat": 1.8, "key_personal_duel": "Jon Gorrotxategi vs Pedro Díaz", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.032, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.975 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.913, "away_lambda": 1.071, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Mikel Oyarzabal": { "opponents": [ "Florian Lejeune", "Mujaid Sadick" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Orri Óskarsson": { "opponents": [ "Florian Lejeune", "Mujaid Sadick" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Luka Sučić": { "opponents": [ "Adrià Pedrosa", "Pedro Díaz" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Carlos Soler": { "opponents": [ "Andrei Rațiu", "Pathé Ismaël Ciss" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Beñat Turrientes": { "opponents": [ "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "Unai López", "Pedro Díaz" ], "primary_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jon Gorrotxategi": { "opponents": [ "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "Unai López" ], "primary_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jon Aramburu": { "opponents": [ "Álvaro García" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Sergio Gómez": { "opponents": [ "Jorge de Frutos" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jon Martin": { "opponents": [ "Sergio Camello" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mamadou Sarr": { "opponents": [ "Sergio Camello" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Álex Remiro": { "opponents": [ "Jorge de Frutos", "Álvaro García" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Florian Lejeune": { "opponents": [ "Mikel Oyarzabal", "Orri Óskarsson" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mujaid Sadick": { "opponents": [ "Mikel Oyarzabal", "Orri Óskarsson" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Adrià Pedrosa": { "opponents": [ "Luka Sučić" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Andrei Rațiu": { "opponents": [ "Carlos Soler" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pathé Ismaël Ciss": { "opponents": [ "Beñat Turrientes", "Jon Gorrotxategi", "Carlos Soler" ], "primary_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Unai López": { "opponents": [ "Beñat Turrientes", "Jon Gorrotxategi" ], "primary_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Álvaro García": { "opponents": [ "Jon Aramburu" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jorge de Frutos": { "opponents": [ "Sergio Gómez" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Sergio Camello": { "opponents": [ "Jon Martin", "Mamadou Sarr" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Pedro Díaz": { "opponents": [ "Beñat Turrientes", "Luka Sučić" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Augusto Batalla": { "opponents": [ "Mikel Oyarzabal", "Orri Óskarsson" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Jon Gorrotxategi vs Pedro Díaz). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.18, Away: 0.88. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.3418, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9965, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9777, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.082, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.041, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9864, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9393, "home_midfield_factor": 1.032, "away_midfield_factor": 0.975, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.6112, "away_avg_quality": 0.4799, "avg_quality_gap": 0.1313, "squad_value_gap_log": 1.0033, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.7729, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.0761, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.2512, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1382, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0804, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.1839, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.2254 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.032, "result": 1.2646 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.95, "result": 1.2014 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.3418, "result": 1.612 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.1109, "result": 1.7908 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9965, "result": 1.7845 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9864, "result": 1.7602 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.082, "result": 1.8422 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.8422, "result": 1.8422, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.2512, "factor": 1.1382, "pre": 1.8422, "result": 2.0967 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 2.0967 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1117, "result": 2.2087 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.7389, "result": 1.8736 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.8736, "result": 1.874, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.874 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0071, "pre": 1.874, "result": 1.8873, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.887 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.887 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.887, "result": 1.887, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 1.035, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 1.913 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8847, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.001 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.975, "result": 0.976 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.05, "result": 1.0248 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0248 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0281, "result": 1.0536 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9777, "result": 1.0301 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9393, "result": 0.9676 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.041, "result": 1.0086 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.0086, "result": 1.0086, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.2512, "factor": 0.9196, "pre": 1.0086, "result": 0.9275 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9275 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.153, "result": 1.081 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.7407, "result": 1.0034 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.0034, "result": 1.003, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.003 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9929, "pre": 1.003, "result": 0.9959, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 0.996 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 0.996 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 0.996, "result": 0.996, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 1.035, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 1.071 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1117, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.153, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Real Sociedad", "away_squad": "Rayo Vallecano", "home_goals_per90": 0.75, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "away_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 0.75, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.739, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.741, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.887, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.996, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.8736, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.0034, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 124, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.984, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.035, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.913, "final_away_lambda": 1.071 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 5, "opponent_position": 11, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.1109, "attack_index": 1.118, "defense_concede_index": 1.148, "form_multiplier": 1.025, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.69, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.73, "team_ppg": 1.7, "opponent_ppg": 1.26 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 11, "opponent_position": 5, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0281, "attack_index": 0.997, "defense_concede_index": 1.087, "form_multiplier": 0.975, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.51, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.64, "team_ppg": 1.26, "opponent_ppg": 1.7 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-4-2 vs 4-3-3 (duel lambdas: Home 1.874, Away 1.003). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.913, Away 1.071 (most likely score 2-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 8, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Real Sociedad", "away_squad": "Rayo Vallecano", "home_goals_per90": 0.75, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "away_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 0.75, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.739, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.741, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.913, "away_lambda": 1.071, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.874, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.003 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.035, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-11-03T14:36:27Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }